Tuesday, March28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Kelleys Island, OH

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:16AMSunset 7:53PM Tuesday March 28, 2017 5:33 PM EDT (21:33 UTC) Moonrise 6:52AMMoonset 7:42PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ164 Lake Erie Open Waters From Maumee Bay To Reno Beach Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Reno Beach To The Islands Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From The Islands To Vermilion Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Vermilion To Avon Point Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Avon Point To Willowick Oh- 353 Pm Edt Tue Mar 28 2017
Tonight..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots diminishing to 10 knots or less. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday night..East winds 10 knots or less increasing to 10 to 20 knots. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..East winds 10 to 20 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots. A chance of rain showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet.
Thursday night..East winds 15 to 25 knots diminishing to 5 to 15 knots. Rain showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet.
Friday..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming north. Rain showers...then a chance of rain showers overnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..North winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northwest less than 10 knots. A chance of rain showers in the morning. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Northwest winds 10 knots or less becoming east. Waves 1 foot or less.
LEZ164 Expires:201703290215;;224682 FZUS61 KCLE 281953 GLFLE OPEN LAKE FORECAST FOR LAKE ERIE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 353 PM EDT TUE MAR 28 2017 FOR WATERS BEYOND FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKE ERIE .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OF 30.40 INCHES WILL EXPAND SOUTH OUT OF CANADA ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY THEN CONTINUE TO NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE 29.60 INCHES WILL MOVE OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE 30.10 INCHES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. LEZ162>166-290215-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kelleys Island, OH
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location: 41.74, -82.47     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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Fxus61 kcle 281944
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
344 pm edt Tue mar 28 2017

Synopsis
A ridge of high pressure will build east across the great lakes
through Wednesday night. A low pressure system will move east
out of missouri to lake erie by Friday and to the delaware coast
by Saturday morning. Another ridge of high pressure will build
east across the area Sunday and to the east coast by Monday.

Another area of low pressure will move east across the ohio
valley Monday night into Tuesday.

Near term /through 6 am Wednesday/
Low pressure continues to move east away from the area at the
surface. Rain associated with the low is also well east of the
area as well. High pressure will continue to build into the
local area tonight allowing low clouds to gradually decrease in
areal coverage. Latest satellite imagery shows some breaks in
the lower cloud deck allowing Sun to penetrate to the surface
over the lake. This is a result of drier air in the lower levels
to push south into the region. Some cold air advection will
take place causing temperatures to drop into the lower to middle
30s.

Short term /Wednesday through Friday night/
Models are still struggling to come into agreement over the next
few days. The GFS is still the most aggressive with the moisture
and timing of the precipitation over the last several runs. The
gfs brings the precipitation well into the area during the day
Thursday while the rest of the models hold off until late
afternoon Thursday into Thursday night. Will lean in the
direction of the slower timing and areal coverage and keep at
chance of precipitation Thursday afternoon in the west and the
bulk of the precipitation later Thursday night.

Low pulls out to the east Friday and pulls the precipitation to
the east with it by Friday night.

Temperatures are expected to be on the increase through Friday
as warm air advection takes place in advance of the low pressure
system. Question is, how warm will it get in advance of the low
Friday. If dry slot wraps in like some models suggest, then
there is the possibility that I may be under cutting
temperatures for highs.

Cold air advection takes place Friday night in the wake of the
low pressure system as lows drop back into the 30s.

Long term /Saturday through Tuesday/
High pressure will build over the area behind the departing system
on Saturday. Cool northerly flow off the lake will keep temperatures
in the upper 40s and lower 50s with low clouds trying to clear out
through the day. Despite some increase in high cloud on Sunday,
better insolation should allow for a warming trend to develop.

Locations near lake erie may struggle to get out of the 40s with
continued east/northeast flow but most inland areas should push
into the mid and upper 50s.

Upper level ridge expands over the area on Sunday with another upper
level low moving out of the plains across the lower to mid
mississippi valley into Monday. Based on the current model
tracks, moisture should increase across the region on Monday
with chances of showers continuing into Tuesday. Will wait for
higher confidence in track before going with anything more than
just a chance of rain.

Aviation /18z Tuesday through Sunday/
A low cloud deck remains across the ohio valley and eastern
great lakes region beneath high pressure building southeast out
of canada. Ceilings range from ifr in most areas to MVFR at
tol/fdy early this afternoon. Drizzle is diminishing and expect
visibilities to improve at most sites. A gradual improvement to
MVFR ceilings is expected as well through 00z but uncertain
about the trends heading into tonight. Dewpoints will start to
drop off with some low level drying expected but otherwise think
several sites may drop back down to an ifr cloud deck as
inversion heights lower. Trended the forecast a little more
pessimistic overnight into tomorrow morning but should
eventually see improvement after 12z with locations starting to
scatter out across northwest ohio and near lake erie.

Outlook... Non-vfr developing again on Thursday and continuing
into Friday. Non-vfr possible through Saturday morning NE oh and
nw pa.

Marine
High pressure will expand across the eastern great lakes through
Wednesday maintaining northeast winds of 5 to 15 knots on lake
erie. Easterly winds will increase on the lake on Thursday as
the gradient tightens between high pressure over eastern canada
and low pressure approaching from the plains. Easterly winds are
expected to reach 20 to 25 knots on Thursday and a small craft
advisory will likely be needed on the western basin into
Thursday night when winds veer to the south. The low pressure
system will make slow eastward progress across northern ohio on
Friday, pulling a cold front south across the lake in its wake.

Northerly winds are not expected to be much more than 15 knots
with the front but the onshore flow will lead to choppy
conditions in the nearshore waters. High pressure will build
across the lake over the weekend.

Cle watches/warnings/advisories
Oh... None.

Pa... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Lombardy
near term... Lombardy
short term... Lombardy
long term... Kec
aviation... Kec
marine... Kec


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH 19 mi45 min N 8 G 8 42°F 39°F
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH 21 mi33 min N 7 G 9.9 44°F 1018.8 hPa (+0.8)
OWXO1 - Old Woman Creek, OH 25 mi108 min NW 2.9 42°F 1018 hPa38°F
45169 35 mi33 min N 3.9 G 5.8 38°F 36°F1 ft37°F
45176 40 mi33 min W 5.8 G 5.8 38°F 38°F2 ft36°F
CNDO1 - 9063063 - Cleveland, OH 46 mi45 min W 6 G 7 39°F 1017.9 hPa36°F

Wind History for Marblehead, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lorain / Elyria, Lorain County Regional Airport, OH31 mi40 minN 1110.00 miOvercast43°F37°F80%1018.5 hPa

Wind History from LPR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW7SW5CalmNE5E5NE4E4E3NE5CalmN4N4NE11NE11N9N8N9N10N10N12N11N11N11N11
1 day agoS4S9S8S7S6S10SW9S7S7SW7SW9W9W11SW10SW8SW7SW8W11SW9SW10W9W9SW12SW13
2 days agoE13NE11NE9NE7E6NE5NE5E5E4E5E3E5E5E6SE4SW3S10S11S8W9W5S4W5SW16
G22

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.