Monday, September25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Kelleys Island, OH

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:20AMSunset 7:22PM Monday September 25, 2017 8:09 PM EDT (00:09 UTC) Moonrise 11:34AMMoonset 9:47PM Illumination 28% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ164 Lake Erie Open Waters From Ripley To Buffalo Ny- Lake Erie Open Waters From Maumee Bay To Reno Beach Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Reno Beach To The Islands Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From The Islands To Vermilion Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Vermilion To Avon Point Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Avon Point To Willowick Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on-the-lake Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Geneva-on-the-lake To Conneaut Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 341 Pm Edt Mon Sep 25 2017
Tonight..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming light and variable. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday..South winds less than 10 knots becoming west. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds less than 10 knots becoming southwest. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north 15 to 20 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..North winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..North winds 15 to 20 knots becoming east 5 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.
LEZ164 Expires:201709260215;;922423 FZUS61 KCLE 251941 GLFLE Open Lake Forecast for Lake Erie National Weather Service Cleveland OH 341 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017 For waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on Lake Erie Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...High pressure 30.10 inches over the eastern Great Lakes will weaken Tuesday into Wednesday. A cold front will cross Lake Erie on Wednesday. Weak high pressure 30.00 inches will build east across the lake on Thursday. A stronger cold front will cross the lake on Friday. LEZ061-162>169-260215-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kelleys Island, OH
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location: 41.74, -82.47     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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Fxus61 kcle 252345
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
745 pm edt Mon sep 25 2017

Synopsis
High pressure over the eastern great lakes today will weaken
and shift east Tuesday. This will allow low pressure to track
across the northern lakes, forcing a cold front across the area
Wednesday evening.

Near term through Tuesday night
Made a few minor adjustments to the hourly temperatures and sky
cover forecast based on current trends this evening but no changes
of any significance.

The strong upper ridge remains anchored over the area, squeezed
between maria off the coast and the approaching short wave over
the northern plains. Dewpoints have come up a degree or two and
there will be scattered cumulus again Tuesday afternoon. The
majority of the cirrus should shift east on Tuesday.

Well above normal temps continue with lows from the upper 50s
into the mid 60s and highs again around 90 except slightly
cooler within a mile or so of lake erie where there will be a
lake breeze again on Tuesday.

Short term Wednesday through Thursday night
Change in the weather pattern is on the way. Upper level ridge
finally weakens allowing surface cold front to move into the central
great lakes by daybreak Wednesday.

For the third day in a row have removed precip from northwest ohio
for Wednesday. The models have been consistently showing the precip
threat with the front is primarily over the east end of the area.

Since our neighbors to the west and north have dry forecasts I think
it is reasonable to go dry especially given the models. Even in the
east see no need for anything more than a 20 pop given how dry the
atmosphere is. The front should be southeast of the area by 18z.

Still think the forecast guidance is too cool for highs as it will
likely be 80 by 9am like it has been the past several days. Will
continue with a high forecast similar to the previous few days. Cold
air advection will continue through the end of the short term
period. Another cold front will cross the area on Friday. Temps
will get chilly behind this front with 850 mb temps dipping to
around plus 4 by 00z Saturday. At the same time 500 mb temps will
get colder than 20 below which means the lake to 500 mb temp
difference will be about 40 degrees. So... Not only will showers be
likely downwind of the lake on Friday... A few rumbles of thunder
could also occur. Will go with 50 pops for now but suspect we will
eventually need likely or higher wording. Have trended high temps
down for Thursday and Friday and they still may be too warm.

Long term Friday through Monday
Next cold front along with a sharp shortwave will cross the local
area Friday evening, the timing of which is better aligned between
the GFS ecmwf. Have carried precip chances across north-
central north-east oh NW pa into Friday evening night. With as
sharp as the trough is lake effect looks to be confined to Friday
night. High pressure and subsidence overspreads the area effectively
on Saturday and brings breaks to the mostly cloudy skies. That high
and the ridge aloft will shift east between Sunday and Monday.

Overnight lows will be at their lowest Saturday night especially if
we clear out with light winds. Will bring a number of locations
close to 40. Saturday will be the coolest day of the long term with
slowly moderating temperatures into early next week.

Aviation 00z Tuesday through Saturday
Light winds andVFR conditions will continue. Dewpoints have
come up enough with light fog mist possible in a few spots
Tuesday morning and included fog in the forecast at ktol and
kfdy. A lake breeze wind shift will develop along the lakeshore
Tuesday afternoon affecting kcle and keri. Fair weatherVFR
cumulus will develop in the afternoon.

Outlook... Non-vfr possible Wednesday afternoon and again on
Friday in sct shra with a small chance of tsra.

Marine
High pressure will linger over the region for one more day before a
cold front crosses the lake on Wednesday. Winds will remain
variable at under 10 knots till the front arrives. Winds will
become northerly behind the front but it now appears we will remain
below small craft criteria. Northerly winds will continue on
Thursday and then will briefly become southwest ahead of an
approaching cold front Thursday night. Winds will become northwest
behind the front on Friday. This time winds and waves may get large
enough for small craft consideration. Numerous showers and expected
Friday into the start of the weekend with some thunder and even
spout possible given the cold airmass. Winds will take on an
easterly component on Saturday which will dry things out.

Climate
Upcoming records for today and Tuesday 25th 26th:
tol 91 1891 92 1998
cak 92 1908 89 1900
mfd 88 2007 87 1998
cle 88 2007 91 1998
eri 89 1933 89 1998
yng 91 2007 89 1934

Cle watches warnings advisories
Oh... None.

Pa... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Djb kosarik
near term... Djb kosarik
short term... Djb kubina
long term... Kubina
aviation... Kosarik
marine... Kubina
climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45005 - W ERIE 28NM Northwest of Cleveland, OH 6 mi40 min E 7.8 G 9.7 76°F 75°F1015.2 hPa73°F
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH 19 mi52 min ESE 5.1 G 7 77°F 1015.9 hPa72°F
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH 21 mi70 min ENE 5.1 G 7 77°F 1014.6 hPa (-0.6)
LORO1 23 mi40 min 7 G 8.9 80°F
HHLO1 - Huron Light, OH 24 mi70 min E 7 G 8 76°F 1014.6 hPa (-1.0)
OWXO1 - Old Woman Creek, OH 25 mi85 min N 1 76°F 1016 hPa71°F
45169 35 mi30 min ENE 7.8 G 12 76°F 74°F1 ft71°F
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 39 mi50 min E 8 G 8.9 78°F
45176 40 mi30 min ENE 7.8 G 9.7 76°F 74°F1 ft1015.1 hPa72°F
45164 41 mi70 min ENE 12 73°F 74°F1015.5 hPa (-0.7)
45165 42 mi30 min E 5.8 G 5.8 76°F 75°F1 ft72°F
CNDO1 - 9063063 - Cleveland, OH 46 mi52 min E 5.1 G 7 75°F 64°F

Wind History for Marblehead, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lorain / Elyria, Lorain County Regional Airport, OH31 mi17 minE 510.00 miFair74°F61°F64%1015.6 hPa

Wind History from LPR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3SW3W3CalmCalmSW4S4S8SE63SE6S4NE6NE7NE4E5
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS6CalmCalmE44N8NE9NE11NE9NE5E3
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmE3N5N7NE8NE7NE8NE5NE5E3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.