Monday, June26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Kelleys Island, OH

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:55AMSunset 9:12PM Monday June 26, 2017 2:56 PM EDT (18:56 UTC) Moonrise 7:53AMMoonset 10:21PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ164 Lake Erie Open Waters From Maumee Bay To Reno Beach Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Reno Beach To The Islands Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From The Islands To Vermilion Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Vermilion To Avon Point Oh- 950 Am Edt Mon Jun 26 2017
Rest of today..West winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of waterspouts. Scattered showers with isolated Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Tonight..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Scattered showers in the evening. A chance of showers late. A chance of waterspouts late. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots. A chance of waterspouts in the morning. A chance of Thunderstorms in the morning. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday night..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of Thunderstorms in the evening. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms Wednesday night. Waves 2 feet or less building to 2 to 4 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Showers and Thunderstorms likely. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet.
Friday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Showers and Thunderstorms likely. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LEZ164 Expires:201706262030;;849677 FZUS61 KCLE 261350 GLFLE Open Lake Forecast for Lake Erie National Weather Service Cleveland OH 950 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017 For waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on Lake Erie Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...A trough of low pressure averaging 30.00 inches will continue to linger over the eastern Great Lakes through today. High pressure 30.20 inches from the Plains states will move to the Ohio Valley by late Tuesday and the east coast Wednesday. A warm front will develop over the Mississippi Valley and move northeast across the Great Lakes Wednesday night into Thursday. Low pressure 29.80 inches from the northern Plains will reach the central Great Lakes Friday and stall. LEZ162>165-262030-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kelleys Island, OH
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location: 41.74, -82.47     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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Fxus61 kcle 261721
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
121 pm edt Mon jun 26 2017

Synopsis
Unseasonably cool conditions will continue today as an
upper trough will lingers over the great lakes region. A surface trough
will swing across the forecast area this afternoon kicking off some showers
and thunderstorms in the snowbelt area east of cleveland.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Have added at least a small mention of precip to the entire area
for today and this evening. The guidance coming in does not
support the dry forecast that was out for the west and south.

Satellite clearly showing a strong short wave over northern wi.

This feature will arrive late in the day and should kick off
scattered showers. No changes to temps for now.

Original discussion...

today will be a couple of degrees cooler than Sunday as a large
upper trough lingers across the great lakes. Currently a few
showers remain across inland snowbelt east of cleveland. Showers
will increase some after sunrise for a couple of hours. More
widespread shower activity will occur this afternoon as a trough
swings across the eastern lakes. Better chance of thunder this
afternoon with the trough and the daytime heating. Only in
general thunder but could see some small hail with tsra as
freezing level so low.

Temps will be unseasonably cool tonight with lows from the upper
40s into lower 50s. A weak cold front will push across the
forecast area tonight kicking off some more showers and isolated
thunderstorms. Again showers should be confined to snowbelt area
east of cleveland. By daybreak Tuesday the 850mb temps plunge to
3c allowing lake effect showers to kick in.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Thursday night
For Tuesday night am concerned about a likely continuation of lake
effect showers and thunderstorms impacting somewhere in the
"snowbelt". Capes 1800-1900 j kg to start the night. Capes decrease
through the night as drier air moves in so left out pops for
Wednesday as high pressure continues to influence the area.

Wednesday night through Thursday night low pressure moves into the
central lakes. A cold front will be north of the region across the
central lakes. Models show sufficient moisture across the area for a
decent chance for showers and thunderstorms as daytime li's drop to
-6 to -9 according to the gfs. For now will continue with likely
pops. Temps approaching normal.

Long term Friday through Sunday
Friday and Friday night another low moves from the central plains
into the central lakes. Will continue with likely pops with
continued deep moisture and instability in the area. A cold front
will drop across the area Saturday into Sunday bringing drier air in
the area from the northwest. Will begin Saturday with chance pops
and decrease to slight chance by Sunday. Temps near normal.

Aviation 18z Monday through Saturday
Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue across NW pa and
far NE oh. Starting to see a few weak returns over NW oh. Still
expecting to see an increase in coverage later today and this
evening as upper disturbances rotate across the region. Will
give most areas a tempo mention of showers for a few hours. The
precip should be more persistent in NW pa and eri will get a
period of predominate showers. Will mention some vicinity
thunder from cle east as well. Precip chances will end from west
to east beginning around 03z. Do expect a period of MVFR cigs
late tonight and Tuesday morning as the main trough rotates over
the area. Westerly winds will continue to gust to around 20
knots through 00z and then diminish slowly overnight.

Outlook... Non-VFR in showers tonight into Tuesday morning.

Non-VFR possible again Thursday into Friday.

Marine
Small craft advisory in effect for today. West winds will
increase to 15 to 20 knots and then swing to the southwest for a
period as trough swings across the lake. Small craft ends
tonight as winds diminish to 10 to 15 knots but choppy
conditions will continue.

Tuesday night models have high pressure building across the lower
ohio valley and west-southwest winds on the lake around 10 knots.

Could see lake effect thunderstorms however east half with the cold
air aloft over the warmer waters. Winds will back slightly Wednesday
as the high drifts east and low pressure approaches the western
lakes. Thursday should see the strongest winds of the period from
the southwest around 15-20kts as low pressure moves through the
central lakes. Friday look for winds from the southwest closer to 10
knots as the gradient relaxes.

Cle watches warnings advisories
Oh... Beach hazards statement until 10 pm edt this evening for
ohz011-012-089.

Pa... Beach hazards statement until 10 pm edt this evening for
paz001.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for
lez146>149.

Synopsis... Djb
near term... Djb kubina
short term... Tk
long term... Tk
aviation... Kubina
marine... Djb tk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45005 - W ERIE 28NM Northwest of Cleveland, OH 6 mi26 min W 18 G 21 67°F 68°F1017 hPa50°F
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH 19 mi38 min W 11 G 19 68°F 1017.5 hPa48°F
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH 21 mi56 min W 19 G 21 68°F 1016.6 hPa (-0.9)
HHLO1 - Huron Light, OH 24 mi56 min W 9.9 G 18 68°F 1016.3 hPa (-1.0)
OWXO1 - Old Woman Creek, OH 25 mi71 min WSW 2.9 71°F 1018 hPa48°F
45169 35 mi26 min WNW 14 G 19 66°F 68°F5 ft1017.5 hPa53°F
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 39 mi56 min W 19 G 21 67°F
45176 40 mi26 min WNW 16 G 16 66°F 70°F4 ft1017.2 hPa55°F
45164 41 mi116 min W 18 59°F 67°F1016.9 hPa (-0.3)
45165 42 mi26 min W 16 G 21 69°F 71°F3 ft48°F
CNDO1 - 9063063 - Cleveland, OH 46 mi38 min W 16 G 21 66°F 1016.9 hPa50°F

Wind History for Marblehead, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lorain / Elyria, Lorain County Regional Airport, OH31 mi63 minW 810.00 miMostly Cloudy68°F45°F44%1017.6 hPa

Wind History from LPR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW12
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W9W6W7W6W7W5SW5SW5SW5SW6SW6W6W8W7W12W12
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2 days agoW13W7W11W13
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W11W8W7W7W7W8W6W8W9W7W5W8W7W7W7W8W7W11NW14
G22

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.