Thursday, October18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Long Beach, IN

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:02AMSunset 6:02PM Thursday October 18, 2018 9:53 PM CDT (02:53 UTC) Moonrise 3:26PMMoonset 12:46AM Illumination 71% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ046 Michigan City In To New Buffalo Mi- 1033 Pm Edt Thu Oct 18 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from 5 am edt Friday through Saturday morning...
.gale watch in effect from Saturday morning through Saturday evening...
Overnight..Southwest wind around 10 knots increasing to 10 to 20 knots. Gusts up to 25 knots toward morning. Clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Friday..Southwest wind 15 to 25 knots. Gusts up to 30 knots. Chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Friday night..West wind 20 to 25 knots veering northwest 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Gusts up to 30 knots. Chance of showers through midnight. Waves 3 to 6 feet building to 4 to 7 feet.
Saturday..West wind 20 to 25 knots becoming northwest to 30 knots. Gusts to 30 knots increasing to 35 knot gales in the afternoon. Chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Waves 5 to 8 feet building to 10 to 14 feet in the afternoon. The water temperature off michigan city is 57 degrees...and 58 degrees off st. Joseph.
LMZ046 Expires:201810191115;;397826 FZUS53 KIWX 190233 NSHIWX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Indiana National Weather Service Northern Indiana 1033 PM EDT Thu Oct 18 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ046-191115-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Long Beach, IN
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location: 41.74, -86.87     debug


Area Discussion for - Northern Indiana, IN
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Fxus63 kiwx 190027
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
827 pm edt Thu oct 18 2018

Synopsis
Issued at 245 pm edt Thu oct 18 2018
cool and dry conditions will persist through early Friday
afternoon before a cold front brings scattered... Light rain
showers to the area Friday evening. This will be followed by a
much better chance for rain late Saturday. Quiet weather is
expected through much of next week.

Short term (this evening through Friday morning)
issued at 245 pm edt Thu oct 18 2018
strong midlevel ridge and associated subsidence surface high
pressure will drift eastward this period as next trough cold front
approach late tomorrow. Dry conditions will persist through early
afternoon though and we should remain mostly clear through the early
morning given very dry airmass sampled on regional upper air
soundings this morning. SW gradient wind and WAA does steadily
increase through tomorrow and this will keep overnight lows in the
mid upper 30s per latest concensus blends. With recent freezing
temps... Growing season has officially ended for our CWA so no
frost freeze headlines or forecasts need to be considered going
forward.

Long term (Friday afternoon through Thursday)
issued at 245 pm edt Thu oct 18 2018
initial cold front arrives tomorrow night with a weak prefrontal
trough and theta-e surge crossing our area during the early evening.

Still think rain chances and amounts will be very low with this
initial activity. Forcing is very weak with poor upper jet
configuration and a ragged midlevel vort max. Moisture advection is
also weak, which is problematic given dry airmass in place. Very
subtle low level convergence signal may trigger a few iso, light
showers but inherited low chance pops still seem appropriate. Did
continue to push back and refine the pop timing with showers likely
holding off until after 21z for most locations.

Should see a break in activity from late Friday night into Saturday
morning before much more formidable trough arrives late Saturday.

140+ kt jet streak at 300mb dives into the great lakes with
corresponding PV anomaly on the cyclonically-sheared side extending
down to 700mb (1.5 pvu surface). Best deformation zone fgen forcing
may pass just northeast of our CWA per latest nam... Gfs... And
canadian but sharply increasing lake-induced instability will
support at least a brief window of numerous showers (especially nw).

Mid-lake buoy still reporting surface water temp in the upper 50s
(roughly 14c) while 700mb temps expected to briefly drop to -15c
late sat. With cyclonic flow and robust midlevel vort max... Do
expect most areas to see at least sct showers. Isolated locations
will see heavier precip rates but exact location of lake effect band
still somewhat uncertain at this range. Will therefore hold just
below categorical pops until hi-res guidance comes in.

Still some nonzero chance for snow Sat night but several negative
factors. Forecast soundings indicate a very narrow window for
substantive precip with crashing inversion heights by 03z... The time
at which it begins to get cold enough to support some snow mixing
in. Strong nnw flow off very warm lake will also keep boundary layer
wet bulb temps higher in locations that could see a few lingering
showers. Can't entirely rule out a few wet snowflakes but chances
are very low and warm ground will certainly prevent any accumulation.

Rest of the forecast is extremely quiet. Strong longwave ridge holds
firm over the central CONUS with next chance of rain not until the
end of next week. Temps will fluctuate a bit on either side of dry
cold front passing early Tue but will remain near to slightly
below normal for this time of year.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Friday evening)
issued at 814 pm edt Thu oct 18 2018
surface anticyclone will continue to sink southeast toward mid
atlantic states into Friday providing a continued southwesterly
gradient for northern indiana. Strengthening gradient on Friday
combined with shallow diurnal mixing should provide gusts into the
15 to 20 knot range late morning afternoon with a possibility of
slightly higher gusts at ksbn.VFR conditions to hold through most
of this period, although pre-frontal moisture advection and
approach of lead upper level short wave may bring in some marginal
MVFR CIGS to ksbn toward the end of this forecast valid period.

Approach of this short wave and very weak elevated instability
could be enough for an isolated afternoon evening shower, but will
maintain dry TAF at this time given expected limited coverage and
low confidence of occurrence. Best chance of showers at terminals
should hold off until after 00z in association with cold frontal
boundary

Iwx watches warnings advisories
In... None.

Mi... None.

Oh... None.

Lm... Gale watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for
lmz043-046.

Small craft advisory from 2 am Friday to 11 am edt Saturday for
lmz043-046.

Synopsis... Agd
short term... Agd
long term... Agd
aviation... Marsili
visit us at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 2 mi53 min S 13 G 14 51°F 29°F
45170 5 mi33 min SW 14 G 18 53°F 58°F2 ft36°F
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 16 mi73 min SSW 4.1 G 6 51°F 1028.1 hPa
45026 - St. Joseph, MI 21 mi33 min SW 14 G 19 55°F 58°F2 ft1027.5 hPa38°F
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 32 mi53 min S 6 G 12 50°F 1027.4 hPa (-1.0)
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 35 mi53 min SSW 7 G 11 52°F 1026.7 hPa29°F
JAKI2 37 mi113 min WSW 6 G 9.9 53°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 39 mi63 min SSW 17 G 19 56°F 30°F
CNII2 40 mi38 min SSW 5.1 G 8.9 52°F 25°F
FSTI2 44 mi113 min SSW 15 53°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Michigan City Municipal Airport, IN4 mi58 minSSW 310.00 miFair43°F28°F57%1027.8 hPa
Valparaiso Porter County Municipal Airport, IN21 mi57 minSW 510.00 miFair47°F27°F46%1028.6 hPa

Wind History from MGC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN4NW5NW3CalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4SW5SW10SW6SW8W3
G8
SW8SW6SW6S3CalmCalmS3
1 day agoSW11
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2 days agoS5SW5S4SW5SW4SW5S5S5S5S6----SW16
G23
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G28
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SW9SW8SW10
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Northern Indiana, IN (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northern Indiana, IN
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.