Sunrise 5:41 AM   Sunset 7:47 PM Moonrise 2:28 AM   Moonset 12:02 PM

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LMZ046 Michigan City In To New Buffalo Mi- 1047 Am Edt Wed May 1 2024
This afternoon - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Tonight - Northwest winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast. A slight chance of showers overnight. Waves around 1 foot. Thursday - East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast. A chance of showers. Waves 1 foot or less. Thursday night - Southeast winds around 10 knots becoming south. A chance of showers. Waves 1 foot or less.
the water temperature at st. Joseph is 53 degrees and at michigan city is 50 degrees.

LMZ005
No data

FXUS63 KIWX 011711 AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 111 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

KEY MESSAGES

* Above normal temperatures and mainly dry conditions Wednesday and Thursday.

* Showers are likely (60-70%) late Thursday night into Friday.
Isolated storms are also possible during this time with locally heavy rainfall the primary threat.

* There is another chance for showers Saturday afternoon into Saturday night (30-40%). Seasonably mild otherwise this weekend.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 245 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024

Mainly dry and mild conditions will be the story today into Thursday. A mid level shortwave and associated sfc occlusion will continue to track east-northeast near Lake Superior. This will force a weakening cold front southeast through the area today with somewhat breezy conditions. This front outruns any of its upper level support with remnant mid-clouds (and possibly a few leftover showers/sprinkles) outpacing sfc moisture returning immediately in advance of the sfc front. Opted to hold with a token slight chance PoP early this morning in IN/MI to account for this isolated shower potential within the preceding low level jet core. The front settles off to the south later today into tonight as shortwave ridging overspreads the Great lakes region. Warm advection then ramps back up on Thursday. This occurs in response to the next low pressure system emerging over the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Confidence in any warm advection showers developing is low as the main low level jet core sets up wnw of the local area during this time. Sfc warm front makes it up close to the MI state line by late Thursday otherwise with highs expected to range from the low-mid 70s in south- central MI to the low-mid 80s south of US 30.

The parent low will once again take a more northeasterly track into south-central Canada Friday into this weekend. However, a couple of convectively aided, smaller scale, impulses will swing through the base of this negative height anomaly. 00z guidance remained consistent in lifting the first wave and associated cold front slowly through the area late Thursday night into Friday with showers and non-zero chances for isolated storms. Good low level moisture return (sfc dewpoints into the low 60s and 850 mb dewpoints to 11- 12C) supports higher PoPs (60-70%) and some threat for locally heavy rainfall. Another shortwave may follow through with another round of showers (30-40%) later Saturday into Saturday night, though confidence is low given model timing differences and questions regarding moisture return. The weekend into next Monday will feature mild/seasonable conditions otherwise.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 107 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

In the wake of a cold front breezy westerly winds will gust to around 25 kts this afternoon. Skies will remain mostly clear through this evening, with mid and high clouds increasing on Thursday ahead of the next weather system. Winds will diminish overnight, then veer to the southeast by Thursday morning and become 10-15 kts.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

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Northern Indiana, IN,