Thursday, April25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Long Beach, IN

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:50AMSunset 7:40PM Thursday April 25, 2019 7:20 PM CDT (00:20 UTC) Moonrise 1:11AMMoonset 10:40AM Illumination 60% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ046 Michigan City In To New Buffalo Mi- 329 Pm Edt Thu Apr 25 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from 2 am edt Friday through Friday afternoon...
Tonight..North wind 5 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 25 knots after midnight. Cloudy. Rain after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 4 to 7 feet occasionally to 9 feet.
Friday..Northwest wind 15 to 20 knots. Gusts up to 25 knots in the morning. Mostly Sunny. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 3 to 5 feet in the afternoon.
Friday night..North wind 5 to 15 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet after midnight.
Saturday..Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots veering east 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Slight chance of rain in the morning, then rain likely in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet. The water temperature off michigan city is 45 degrees...and 42 degrees off st. Joseph.
LMZ046 Expires:201904260415;;477436 FZUS53 KIWX 251929 NSHIWX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Indiana National Weather Service Northern Indiana 329 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ046-260415-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Long Beach, IN
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location: 41.74, -86.87     debug


Area Discussion for - Northern Indiana, IN
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Fxus63 kiwx 252318
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
718 pm edt Thu apr 25 2019

Synopsis
Issued at 301 pm edt Thu apr 25 2019
rain will overspread the area into tonight as low pressure tracks
into the region. Rainfall amounts in excess of 1 inch will be
possible across northeast indiana and northwest ohio. Windy
conditions and decreasing clouds are expected behind this system
on Friday. Lows tonight will range between the mid 40s and mid
50s, with highs on Friday in the upper 50s and low 60s. Cool
conditions are expected this weekend with another round of rain
and wind anticipated later Saturday into Saturday night.

Short term (this evening through Friday)
issued at 301 pm edt Thu apr 25 2019
a soaking rain the story for many into tonight and early Friday as a
more phased, eventually negatively tilted, storm system pivots
through. Initial forcing late this afternoon and evening tied to
leading fgen moisture convergence through a deep layer north into
southern eastern zones. This will transition to a classic
deformation zone tonight into early Friday on the backside of
deepening sfc cyclone lifting northeast toward lake erie. Ample
moisture as 850 mb dewpoints near 9-10c and slower more phased
solution will likely allow rainfall totals to exceed an inch in many
locations along and southeast of us 24, though back edge of heavier
rain could extend back northwest to a monticello-warsaw-angola line.

Areas in far NW in and SW lower mi will likely be caught in
between northern and southern stream waves (mainly cloudy low
pops) into the early overnight before light rain fills in later
tonight as frontal zone associated with incoming northern stream
energy edges in from the west. Very weak elevated instability,
increasing dynamic forcing and ample moisture could combine to
produce some convective elements and heavier rainfall
rates... Especially across southern and eastern zones where minor
lowland stream river type flooding will be possible into Friday.

Drier subsident post-frontal airmass will bring at least partial
clearing from west to east later Friday morning into early Friday
afternoon. CAA regime will be offset some by deeper mixing which
should allow highs to still climb near 60 degrees. Windy otherwise
in NW flow with gusts to 35 mph possible.

Long term (Friday night through Thursday)
issued at 301 pm edt Thu apr 25 2019
winds will briefly slacken under a mainly clear sky into NW in and
sw lower mi later Friday night as low level ridging briefly builds
in. This radiational cooling setup could support some patchy frost
here where lows drop into the mid 30s.

A potent compact mid level wave and associated sfc reflection
remain modeled to track east through the lower great lakes region
later Saturday into Saturday night. Strong fgen isentropic ascent
and some semblance of a trowal should support a healthy
precipitation event along and north of the sfc low track, though
limited somewhat due to quick movement and limited low level
moisture return. The latest model consensus continues to support
highest pops and QPF across the northern half of the iwx cwa, with
rain possibly mixing with snow in our michigan counties if a more
southerly track verifies. Raw and windy during this time
otherwise, though warm sector could edge into far southern zones
late Saturday afternoon evening with warmer temps.

Dry cool becoming sunny then behind this system on Sunday.

A frontal zone will set up in west to east fashion across the
midwest next week, while a series of lower amplitude shortwaves
ripple through in quasi-zonal flow aloft. The result is periodic
rain chances with temperatures mainly on the cool side for the
first half of the week as the sfc portion of baroclinic zone
likely remains locked up just south of the local area. This may
change (warmer temps and perhaps some better thunderstorm chances)
toward the end of the week with a transition to more amplified
western us troughing and eastern us ridging aloft, though
confidence in details is low at this forecast range.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Friday evening)
issued at 656 pm edt Thu apr 25 2019
lifting surface low pressure center, currently over south-central
in, is forecast to merge with a cold front sweeping across il
overnight. This will result in a prolonged period of convection at
the terminals for a sizable amount of the 00z TAF period. There
is a chance for an isolated thunderstorm to affect the terminals
as well with kfwa having the best chance given the proximity to
the low center. Ksbn has a lower chance, but non- zero chance due
to the forcing of the approaching cold front. Ifr to lifr
conditions are possible as heavier downpours impact the terminal
directly for kfwa while ksbn stays just above ifr for now. Chances
for the terminals to be impacted by thunder drops after 07z as
instability is forecast to be meager by that point, but lowered
flight categories will likely persist into the morning hours.

Convection clears ksbn around 12z while lingering at kfwa until
15z. Ceilings improve as convection clears the terminals before
gusty winds up to 35kt develop after 18z.

Iwx watches warnings advisories
In... None.

Mi... None.

Oh... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory from 2 am to 5 pm edt Friday for lmz043-046.

Synopsis... Steinwedel
short term... Steinwedel
long term... Steinwedel
aviation... Cm
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 2 mi31 min NNE 12 G 13 51°F 37°F
45170 5 mi21 min E 5.8 G 7.8 48°F 48°F44°F
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 16 mi41 min E 4.1 G 5.1 49°F 1005.4 hPa
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 32 mi21 min E 4.1 G 5.1 54°F 1005.1 hPa (-2.4)
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 35 mi33 min NE 2.9 G 2.9 49°F 1004.8 hPa42°F
JAKI2 37 mi81 min E 2.9 G 4.1 50°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 39 mi31 min N 2.9 G 4.1 48°F 40°F
CNII2 40 mi21 min NE 1.9 G 2.9 50°F 39°F
FSTI2 44 mi81 min NNE 2.9 49°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Michigan City Municipal Airport, IN4 mi26 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy54°F41°F63%1005.1 hPa
Valparaiso Porter County Municipal Airport, IN21 mi25 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds59°F46°F62%1004.7 hPa

Wind History from MGC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS5S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4CalmN6N5N4N5N5N3Calm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4SE3E3SE3SE4E5SE7N5S4N4Calm
2 days agoS6CalmS7S7S8
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N8N9N6N8NE4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Northern Indiana, IN (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northern Indiana, IN
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.