Thursday, September20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Yreka, CA

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9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 6:55AMSunset 7:11PM Thursday September 20, 2018 2:26 AM PDT (09:26 UTC) Moonrise 4:17PMMoonset 1:29AM Illumination 79% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
PZZ330 1126 Pm Pdt Fri Aug 9 2013
.thunderstorms over the waters... Thunderstorms over the waters have weakened but isolated storms will continue overnight. Mariners can expect gusty and erratic winds with the storms along with frequent lightning. If caught on the open water stay below deck if possible...keep away from ungrounded metal objects. Lat...lon 4397 12411 4396 12411 4400 12413 4284 12455 4242 12440 4225 12441 4205 12428 4184 12422 4181 12580 4198 12579 4220 12589 4370 12576 4386 12565 4399 12562 4403 12414
PZZ300 804 Pm Pdt Wed Sep 19 2018
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters.. North winds and steep wind-driven seas will continue through Thursday evening south of cape blanco. A frontal system will move through the northern waters Friday night into Saturday morning with some light rain possible. High pressure will build offshore this weekend resulting in a strengthening thermal trough. Expect steep to very steep seas and strong north winds that could reach gale force south of cape blanco Sunday and Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Yreka, CA
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location: 41.75, -122.64     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 200332
afdmfr
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
832 pm pdt Wed sep 19 2018

Short term The forecast remains on track. An upper level
shortwave will shift east of the area tonight while an upper ridge
remains centered offshore. The pattern will shift to near zonal
flow aloft on Friday. Expect dry weather tonight through the day
Friday. A surface thermal trough along the coast will bring some
gusty north winds to the coast and coastal waters south of cape
blanco. Inland expect gusty north to northeast winds over the
coastal ridges tonight. Then breezy north winds are expected late
Thursday afternoon and evening for many areas west of the
cascades. Then winds will weaken for areas west of the cascades
Thursday night and Friday.

Models remain on track showing a weak upper level disturbance
and weak front moving inland over the pacific northwest Friday
night into Saturday morning. This disturbance may bring light
rain to the coast and into portions of the umpqua and south-
central cascades. Also ahead of this system breezy to gusty west
winds are expected east of the cascades late Friday afternoon and
evening with stronger gusty west winds Saturday afternoon and
evening.

Aviation For the 20 00z tafs...VFR prevails all areas this
morning. MVFR CIGS in low stratus will continue to spread onshore
along the coos and douglas coast inland into coastal valleys this
evening. Overnight ceilings may lower to a mix of ifr MVFR and
persist through early Thursday morning. Inland, expect MVFR CIGS to
spread into portions of the umpqua, including krbg, late tonight and
early Thursday morning. There is moderate confidence of MVFR CIGS at
krbg late tonight into Thursday morning. Elsewhere, expectVFR
through the period. -cc

Marine Updated 800 pm pdt Wednesday 19 september 2018... North
winds and steep wind-driven seas will continue through Thursday
evening south of CAPE blanco as a thermal trough remains oriented
along the coast. The thermal trough will weaken Friday and a frontal
system will move through the northern waters Friday night into
Saturday morning with some light rain possible. High pressure will
build offshore this weekend resulting in a strengthening thermal
trough. Expect steep to very steep seas and strong north winds that
could reach gale force south of CAPE blanco Sunday and Monday.

-spilde

Prev discussion issued 247 pm pdt Wed sep 19 2018
discussion...

a pretty quiet weather pattern will continue for the next two days
as we become wrapped up in some dry upper level zonal flow with a
shortwave trough departing to the east. The biggest concern in
the near term will be the north east(offshore) winds along the
coastal range tomorrow. Winds will peak in the sustained 15-25
mph range in the late morning to early afternoon time period on
Thursday. As a result, we'll see temperatures near brookings and
the southern oregon coastline push into the upper 70's, about 10
degrees warmer than average for this time of year. Across the rest
of the region, temperatures will be about 1 to 3 degrees below
normal for this time of year.

For Friday, we'll see another upper level trough and a cold front
approach the region. Since we'll be under some southwest flow,
temperatures will briefly warm ahead of the cold front. This
cold front has a little moisture with it, so we'll have a chance
to see some rain along the coast and areas north of the umpqua
divide. As we've seen already this september, we're only expecting
a few hundreths of rain near north bend and those areas north of
the umpqua divide and west of the cascades.

As for Saturday and Sunday, this trough will start to progress
eastward and a pretty cold air mass will attempt to push into
oregon. There is still a ridge over nevada and warmer temperatures
in northern california, so we'll see temperatures range largely
across northern california to central oregon. Right now wfo
sacramento is forecasting lower 90's in redding with WFO portland
forecasting around 70 in eugene. The 850 mb temperature gradient
between those cities is roughly 10 celsius.

Eventually, we'll see a rex block setup to our west over the
pacific next week. This in turn will result with persistent east
winds and dry weather. Temperatures will warm into the upper 70's
along the coast. Valleys west of the cascades should see
temperatures warm into the mid to upper 80's. Somes bar and happy
camp will see temperatures in the mid 90's. Overall, a pretty
significant warming trend going into next week for all locations,
those west of the cascades.

The models keep this rex block into next weekend (10 days away).

The GFS wants to insert a wave to help kick it out, but the ecmwf
is not showing that. Some of the GEFS members keep this rex block
going even longer. So it is possible we could be dealing with
these warmer than average temperatures and east upper level winds
into the start of october.

As for smoke during the forecast period, the klondike, natchez and
delta fires are still active, but not as active compared to a few
weeks ago. The northeast offshore winds will start to push most
of the smoke over brookings this afternoon, Thursday and again
next Monday through next Friday. Since the klondike fire doesn't
have much fuel left to burn inside the fire lines ,according to
meteorologists on site, we shouldn't see massive amounts of smoke.

However, we could see visibilities reduced at times along the
southern oregon coastline.

-smith
fire weather... Updated 2 pm pdt Wednesday, 19 september 2018...

the latest surface analysis shows the thermal trough located along
the southwest oregon coast. This is expected to remain through at
least Friday morning. This will result in a continued offshore flow
with moderate overnight recoveries tonight into Thursday morning for
the mid slopes and ridges. Right now it looks like recoveries could
end up lower Thursday night into Friday, but guidance is suggesting
wind speeds may not be as strong. Winds will peak in the sustained
15-25 mph range in the late morning to early afternoon time period
on Thursday.

The models are slower with the arrival of the cold front until
Saturday which makes sense given the front is nearly parallel to the
upper flow. Meanwhile the thermal trough will shift inland over the
westside valleys bringing warmer afternoon temperatures to the rogue
and illinois valley. West winds will increase late Friday afternoon
and evening. Rhs will be low enough to warrant a headline, though
there is some uncertainty regarding the magnitude of the winds and
whether or not these winds will be coincident with critical rhs.

A weak cold front could bring a few showers mainly north of cape
blanco along the coast and north of the umpqua divide and west
facing slopes of the cascades from about crater lake north early
Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon. Even then it's debatable
weather or not we'll get anything measurable. Best case scenario
would be 0.03 of an inch near reedsport and 0.01 of an inch
elsewhere. Winds could end up stronger east of the cascades Saturday
afternoon and evening, but relative humidities should be a bit
higher.

Confidence is becoming higher we could be dealing with dry
conditions with gusty northeast winds (another thermal trough
pattern) Sunday into next Wednesday with moderate to poor overnight
recoveries possible starting Sunday night. The combination of wind
and moderate to poor overnight recoveries could be cause for concern
for the klondike fire Sunday night through Wednesday morning. As
always, the details on this could change given it's still a ways out
there.

Climatologically, many of our most robust east winds have occurred
during the last week of september and the first week of october, so
this certainly bears some watching.

-petrucelli

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... None.

Ca... None.

Pacific coastal waters... Small craft advisory until 11 pm pdt Thursday for pzz356-376.

Cc


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CECC1 - 9419750 - Crescent City, CA 82 mi50 min 51°F 59°F1016.6 hPa
46027 - ST GEORGES - 8NM West Northwest of Crescent City, CA 93 mi36 min N 16 G 19 54°F 52°F4 ft1016.4 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Crescent City, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Montague Siskiyou County Airport, CA9 mi33 minNE 410.00 miFair46°F28°F51%1018.7 hPa

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Last 24hrN9N8NE5NE4CalmCalmCalmCalm--CalmS4N12
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm33SW4SW343N10N16N10N7N10N9N6N8N6N11
2 days agoNE5CalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm33Calm33CalmN14N8N9N7N8N5E5Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Crescent City, California
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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Tide / Current Tables for Brookings, Chetco Cove, Oregon
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of CentralWestCoast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.