Thursday, December13, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Yreka, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:30AMSunset 4:40PM Thursday December 13, 2018 1:28 AM PST (09:28 UTC) Moonrise 11:56AMMoonset 10:44PM Illumination 32% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
PZZ330 1126 Pm Pdt Fri Aug 9 2013
.thunderstorms over the waters... Thunderstorms over the waters have weakened but isolated storms will continue overnight. Mariners can expect gusty and erratic winds with the storms along with frequent lightning. If caught on the open water stay below deck if possible...keep away from ungrounded metal objects. Lat...lon 4397 12411 4396 12411 4400 12413 4284 12455 4242 12440 4225 12441 4205 12428 4184 12422 4181 12580 4198 12579 4220 12589 4370 12576 4386 12565 4399 12562 4403 12414
PZZ300 808 Pm Pst Wed Dec 12 2018
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..High and steep to very steep seas will continue through much of the forecast period, with several heavy swell trains and multiple fronts expected well into next week. SWell dominated seas will continue through Thursday afternoon. Then, southerly winds will increase to gales ahead of a strong front Thursday night into Friday. Another heavy swell train arrives at the same time, bringing combined seas to around 25 feet Friday. The next swell train is expected Sunday into Monday and may bring the highest seas of the season so far.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Yreka, CA
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location: 41.75, -122.64     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 130400
afdmfr
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
800 pm pst Wed dec 12 2018

Discussion 13 00z NAM in. 13 00z GFS in through 48hr.

The northern hemispheric projection shows a progressive five wave
pattern around the globe, and that regime will not change over
the next 7 to 8 days or so.

Currently a strong long wave ridge is in place over the far west
u.S. With the ridge axis near the coast. Dry weather will prevail
through Thursday, except for possible light showers over the
outer coastal waters. Skies will clear later tonight, allowing for
cold low temperatures over some areas, along with late night into
morning low clouds and fog over some of the valleys.

The ridge will move slowly east, breaking to the east of the area
Thursday afternoon. Southwest flow aloft will develop, opening
the storm door. The upstream trough will move in quickly, pushing
a strong front onshore Friday.

The models differ a bit on the timing of the front, both between
models and run-to-run within the same model. However, the
variations are generally within a 6 hour window. The main source
of uncertainty is the trajectory and strength of a surface low
will will pass to the north. The models have been all over the
place with this one. The 12 12z NAM solution had an acv-oth gradient
as high as 12 mb. The 13 00z NAM run GOES with a MAX of 7.3. Quite
a difference! If the higher gradient verifies, there will be storm
force winds at seas and widespread inland wind headlines. If the
gradient is near 8.0 mb, like the 13 00z NAM and gfs, there will
be gales over the coastal waters and high winds will only impact
typical problem areas like the shasta valley, the east side, and
perhaps the immediate coastline.

While there is some uncertainty in the strength and timing of the
front, confidence is high that Friday will be a wet and windy
day. A high wind watch is already in effect for the east side and
shasta valley. Wind advisories will be needed later for other
areas. High winds are still a possibility for the coast as well,
but confidence is lower away from the capes.

Precipitation with this front will not be overly significant as it
will be a fast moving system, but periods of moderate to heavy
rain are possible. The rogue valley, a typical dry spot, will
likely experience downsloping winds, and rainfall totals will
probably be much less than surrounding areas. Snow levels will
remain well above 4000 feet for much of the event, and as a
result, there will be a few inches of snow over the higher passes
during the day Friday.

There won't be much in the way of ridging behind the front Friday
night into Saturday, but showers will diminish into Saturday
morning, and the winds will decrease quite a bit as well.

A line of storms across the pacific is generating numerous swell
trains that will create very hazardous beach conditions for the
next week or more. High surf advisories continue, and they will
likely be upgraded to warnings later in the week. Those attempting
to view the waves and conditions at the coast should take the
proper precautions to keep safe, including staying off jetties and
exposed rocks, and remaining behind any safety barriers. Disregarding
these simple steps could result in serious injury or death.

Long term discussion from the Wednesday afternoon afd... Saturday
night through Wednesday. After Saturday's dry interlude another
strong front will bear down on the northwest Saturday night into
Sunday morning. Saturday night will experience mainly increasing
clouds and south winds - probably a gale force event for the
waters with a low-end high wind warning event for the south coast
and some advisories possible inland. The majority of precipitation
will hold off until Sunday as the associated upper trough splits
coming into the west, with most energy going north or south of our
warning area. So this should not be a major impact precipitation
event as the front moves through Sunday, plus snow levels will be
fairly high - around 6000 feet. Somewhat lower snow levels are
expected for the next system Monday which will probably remain
somewhat benign as well. Unlike the Sunday event, this system
should allow snow to fall 500 to a thousand feet lower and produce
higher accumulations in the cascades around crater lake. -stavish

Aviation For the 13 00z tafs... Upper level ridging has brought
the return of stable conditions, but a shortwave is moving over the
area, bringing some thick high level cloud cover and virga.VFR
conditions prevail and should do so for most of the area through
tonight, with the exception being the interior west side valleys.

Typically with stable conditions, especially in mid december, we'd
be fairly certain of fog development, however, this cloud cover is
pretty thick and some guidance is indicating it lingering around
until at least sunrise Thursday. This could delay or even prohibit
fog development. On the other hand, climatology and recent moisture
would ensure that fog develops regardless, so have backed off the
timing fog formation at krbg and kmfr until a few hours before
sunrise. Confidence on the timing is low, however, as any break in
the high cloud cover would lead to fog developing quickly. Br-y

Marine Updated 730 pm pst Wednesday 12 december 2018...

conditions hazardous to small craft, primarily from seas, will
continue into Thursday. South winds increase Thursday afternoon as a
strong front approaches from the west, reaching gale force and
producing steep wind driven seas Thursday night into Friday morning.

For the most part, models are in fairly good agreement with the
timing of the front, however, the NAM continues to show a strong
surface low developing Thursday night into Friday morning. If this
comes true, this would delay the timing of the front and bring even
stronger south winds. For now, will go with model consensus and see
how future runs of the NAM handle the surface low. This strong front
will also coincide with the arrival of another very high and
powerful swell, the combination of which could produce extremely
high and dangerous seas up to 25 feet Friday.

Additional strong fronts and periods of powerful west to northwest
swell are expected this weekend into early next week. The next swell
event is expected Sunday into Monday, however, it's not completely
clear on high high wave heights will get. There are still
discrepancies in the guidance which is leading to lower confidence
in peak wave heights. Even with the discrepancies, it still looks to
be one of the highest swell events of the season, so mariners should
be prepared for dangerous sea conditions during this time. Expect
this active pattern to continue well into next week, so be prepared
for additional heavy swell trains and periods of gusty winds.

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... High surf advisory until 4 am pst Saturday for orz021-022.

High wind watch from late Thursday night through Friday evening
for orz030-031.

Ca... High wind watch from late Thursday night through Friday evening
for caz085.

High wind watch from Thursday evening through Friday afternoon
for caz081.

Pacific coastal waters... Small craft advisory until 4 am pst Friday for
pzz350-356-370-376.

Gale warning from 10 pm Thursday to 1 pm pst Friday for
pzz350-356-370-376.

15 15 03


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CECC1 - 9419750 - Crescent City, CA 82 mi64 min NE 2.9 G 4.1 43°F 52°F1026.7 hPa
46027 - ST GEORGES - 8NM West Northwest of Crescent City, CA 93 mi48 min ESE 5.8 G 12 50°F 54°F1026.9 hPa46°F

Wind History for Crescent City, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Montague Siskiyou County Airport, CA9 mi35 minN 010.00 miFair28°F24°F85%1030.7 hPa

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Last 24hrW4W9W8E5N3NW3E3CalmNE4N5N5NE3CalmCalmNE3N3CalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmSW3CalmSW3CalmCalmS3CalmSW5CalmCalmCalmSE5CalmCalmE33W24
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2 days agoN4NE6E4CalmCalmE3NE4CalmN7N6N4CalmW33W4CalmCalmSE3CalmE5CalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Crescent City, California (2) (expired 1989-12-31)
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Crescent City
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:14 AM PST     5.92 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:35 AM PST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:35 AM PST     3.82 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 12:01 PM PST     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:50 PM PST     5.74 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:46 PM PST     Sunset
Thu -- 09:51 PM PST     1.01 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:50 PM PST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.63.84.85.65.95.85.44.84.23.93.94.14.65.25.65.75.54.83.82.81.81.211.3

Tide / Current Tables for Crescent City, California
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Crescent City
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:14 AM PST     5.95 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:35 AM PST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:37 AM PST     3.82 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 12:01 PM PST     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:51 PM PST     5.73 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:46 PM PST     Sunset
Thu -- 09:52 PM PST     1.03 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:50 PM PST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.63.84.85.65.95.85.44.84.23.93.84.14.65.25.65.75.54.83.92.81.91.211.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of CentralWestCoast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.