Friday, March22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bertsch-Oceanview, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:16AMSunset 7:30PM Thursday March 21, 2019 10:53 PM PDT (05:53 UTC) Moonrise 7:34PMMoonset 7:03AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
PZZ330 1126 Pm Pdt Fri Aug 9 2013
.thunderstorms over the waters... Thunderstorms over the waters have weakened but isolated storms will continue overnight. Mariners can expect gusty and erratic winds with the storms along with frequent lightning. If caught on the open water stay below deck if possible...keep away from ungrounded metal objects. Lat...lon 4397 12411 4396 12411 4400 12413 4284 12455 4242 12440 4225 12441 4205 12428 4184 12422 4181 12580 4198 12579 4220 12589 4370 12576 4386 12565 4399 12562 4403 12414
PZZ300 811 Pm Pdt Thu Mar 21 2019
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters.. Long period swell will continue to build into the coastal waters through tonight. South gales and very steep wind driven seas will develop by early Friday and continue into Friday afternoon. Elevated long period west swell will persist through Saturday night before diminishing Sunday morning. After a brief break Sunday, another round of gales and very steep seas is possible Monday, with unsettled weather expected through much of next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bertsch-Oceanview, CA
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location: 41.75, -124.18     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 220320
afdmfr
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
820 pm pdt Thu mar 21 2019

Discussion 22 00z NAM in.

Partly cloudy skies prevail this evening over the land portions of
the medford CWA with diminishing light showers from the cascades
east. Meanwhile, it is mostly clear over the coastal waters.

A very wrapped up low remains over the gulf of alaska. A
weakening short wave ejected from an offshore upper level trough
will move onshore Saturday. The associated front will push onshore
well ahead of it Friday. This will not be a particularly strong
front, but the associated light to moderate precipitation will be
widespread. Precipitation will develop over the coastal waters and
near mount shasta (due to increasing upslope flow) late tonight,
and will move onshore early Friday morning. Precipitation will
spread into south central oregon around midday.

The heaviest precipitation will occur along the coast and the
coastal range, where brookings could see up to three quarters of
an inch of rain. This won't have a big effect on most of the area,
but the new road on the highway 101 slide north of brookings may
be impacted by this event and the fronts to follow.

Snow levels will be around 5000 feet. Impacts due to snow will be
light for the most part, but the higher passes may still see some
snow. This front will also bring breezy conditions to the coast,
ridges, east side, and shasta valley. It doesn't look like any
land areas will reach advisory level wind speeds though.

The front will stall over the east side Friday night into Saturday
while the west side gets a relative break. However the short wave
will move onshore Saturday, pushing a secondary front onshore
Saturday morning. This will bring another round of showers to the
area Saturday into Saturday night. The entire CWA will likely have
experienced measurable precipitation by Saturday night. Snow
levels will drop to near 4000 feet Saturday.

There will be a slight chance for thunderstorms on the west side
Saturday afternoon and evening as instability and moisture will be
plentiful enough. The models are also indicating these conditions
across the cascades and eastward, but snow depths of several
inches (to feet) will dampen surface based instability, and thus
thunderstorms are not forecast for those areas.

Energy diving down the backside of the offshore upper trough will
cause it to dig in place, pumping up a ridge over the western
u.S. Saturday night into Sunday. This will stabilize the air mass,
ending the showers and clearing the skies.

The clearing on Saturday night will allow temperatures to drop,
and Sunday morning will be a relatively cold one across the area.

Lows will be in the lower 30s west of the cascades with mid to
upper 30s at the coast. Meanwhile, temperatures will be well-
below freezing from the cascades east. Although growing season
has not officially started, except for many of the early varieties
(which can largely handle these temperatures), there could be
some frost cold temperature issues for vegetation that is
vulnerable to the cold.

Sunday will be warmer and mostly dry. The break will be short-
lived, as another short wave will push the next front onshore as
early as Sunday evening.

Long term discussion from the Thursday afternoon afd... Monday 25
mar through Thursday 28 mar 2019.

Unsettled weather is expected much of next week, though we may
catch a break on Tuesday.

The upper level pattern will feature a broad closed low out around
45n and 140w on Monday. A frontal system associated with this low
will move onshore Monday morning and through the area bringing a
period of steadier precipitation across most of the CWA through
Monday evening. Heaviest precipitation will be from the coast
range of SW oregon to western and central siskiyou county, where
amounts of 0.50-1.50 inches are likely. Snow levels still look to
be about 4500 feet with most accumulating snow occurring above
5000 feet. Expect a period of steady south to southeast winds pre-
front in the morning, then winds shift to SW and remain breezy as
the front moves through. Precipitation becomes more showery
following the frontal passage. We've added a slight chance of
thunder to the immediate coast and coastal waters as mid-level
instability increases behind the front.

We're expecting broad SW flow aloft to set up over the area
Monday night into Tuesday, and while isolated to scattered
showers could remain, most areas should catch a break in between
fronts. The closed low will pinwheel southeastward offshore sending
another short wave impulse and frontal system through the area
mainly Tuesday night through Wednesday. Once again, the bulk of the
moisture precipitation is expected across our southern and western
zones, but areas to the north will see some precipitation too.

A showery pattern will continue with moist, onshore flow Wednesday
night through Thursday as the closed low offshore gradually opens up
into a trough and crosses the pacnw. -spilde

Aviation For the 22 00z tafs...VFR will prevail through Friday
morning. An approaching cold front will bring rain to the coast
Friday morning. The front will then push eastwards and bring rain to
all locations by Friday evening. MVFR ceilings are unlikely for the
inland valleys, but are probable at the coast with frontal passage
around noon. We're also expecting some speed wind shear along the
coast as the front moves onshore.

-smith

Marine Updated 800 pm pdt Thursday, 21 march 2019...

long period swell has arrived in the waters this evening. Meanwhile,
satellite imagery shows a front lying offshore, which will push into
the waters Friday morning. Expect south gales and very steep wind
driven seas to develop ahead of the front as it sweeps across the
waters Friday morning though Friday afternoon. Elevated long period
west swell will continue through Saturday and into Saturday night,
producing hazardous bar conditions and higher than average surf
before diminishing Sunday morning.

After a brief break in the action Sunday, another robust frontal
system is expected to arrive Monday, but the latest model solutions
suggest it could weaken significantly as it arrives. Due to the
weakening trend of the front, timing and strength are likely to
change over the next several forecast cycles, but gales may be
possible Monday morning, with steep to very steep seas persisting
into Monday night. Conditions should improve by Tuesday, but long-
term guidance suggests unsettled weather will continue into next
week, although exact details are uncertain at this time.

-bpn smith

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... Beach hazards statement through late tonight for orz021-022.

Ca... None.

Pacific coastal waters... Small craft advisory from 5 pm Friday to
11 am pdt Sunday for pzz350-356-370-376.

Gale warning from 8 am to 5 pm pdt Friday for
pzz350-356-370-376.

Hazardous seas warning from 8 am to 5 pm pdt Friday for
pzz350-356.

Hazardous seas warning from 11 pm this evening to 5 pm pdt
Friday for pzz370-376.

15 15 11


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CECC1 - 9419750 - Crescent City, CA 0 mi59 min ESE 4.1 G 6 49°F 54°F1019 hPa
46027 - ST GEORGES - 8NM West Northwest of Crescent City, CA 13 mi33 min SSE 9.7 G 14 54°F 52°F1019.2 hPa54°F
46244 - Humboldt Bay, North Spit, CA 60 mi53 min 52°F7 ft

Wind History for Crescent City, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Crescent City, Jack McNamara Field Airport, CA4 mi57 minSSE 610.00 miMostly Cloudy51°F46°F86%1019.1 hPa
Brookings, Brookings Airport, OR23 mi57 minVar 310.00 miOvercast48°F45°F89%1020.6 hPa

Wind History from CEC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS17
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S13S9S8S7S6E4E3E5E3E3S5S6S7SW9SW8SW9S6S7--S7S5S7SE6
1 day agoCalmNE3CalmNW4CalmCalmSE3S4S9S7S7S9S3CalmNW5N6NW5N7N5SW6S19
G34
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2 days agoCalmS6SE3CalmNE5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW7S5S6S6S4NW6NW7NW53E3NE4CalmCalmE3

Tide / Current Tables for Crescent City, California
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Crescent City
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Fri -- 01:14 AM PDT     7.44 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:16 AM PDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:25 AM PDT     0.03 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:35 AM PDT     Moonset
Fri -- 01:33 PM PDT     7.10 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:31 PM PDT     Sunset
Fri -- 07:39 PM PDT     0.22 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 09:46 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.77.47.264.32.50.90.10.21.12.74.56776.24.731.40.40.312.54.3

Tide / Current Tables for Brookings, Chetco Cove, Oregon
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Brookings
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:15 AM PDT     7.44 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:17 AM PDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:29 AM PDT     0.03 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:35 AM PDT     Moonset
Fri -- 01:34 PM PDT     7.10 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:31 PM PDT     Sunset
Fri -- 07:43 PM PDT     0.22 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 09:47 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.77.47.26.14.42.610.10.21.12.64.466.976.24.831.50.40.312.44.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of CentralWestCoast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.