Wednesday, November14, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
East Dennis, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:28AMSunset 4:22PM Wednesday November 14, 2018 7:37 PM EST (00:37 UTC) Moonrise 1:16PMMoonset 11:21PM Illumination 44% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ231 Cape Cod Bay- 716 Pm Est Wed Nov 14 2018
.gale warning in effect from late Thursday night through Friday afternoon...
Tonight..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, becoming N 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..E winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Fri..E winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming nw in the afternoon. Gusts up to 45 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Rain likely. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Fri night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Sat..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of rain.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of rain.
Mon night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 716 Pm Est Wed Nov 14 2018
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. High pressure builds over the waters tonight, then drifts to the maritimes Thursday. Another storm system approaches along the coast, impacting the waters late Thursday into Friday. High pressure returns for the weekend. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near East Dennis, MA
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location: 41.75, -70.16     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 150000
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
700 pm est Wed nov 14 2018

Synopsis
Cold high pressure builds across northern new england tonight
yielding much colder than normal temperatures for southern new
england. The high provides dry weather most of Thursday however
snow begins to overspread ct and ri around or shortly after sunset,
as low pressure tracks up the eastern seaboard. As this low tracks
along the south coast of new england Thursday night and Friday, snow
changes to rain along and near the coast with snow to ice inland.

Behind the storm dry weather follows Friday night into Saturday. A
weak system may bring scattered snow showers Sunday night into
Monday.

Near term until 6 am Thursday morning
7pm update...

overall forecast is on track. As expected the ci has done little
to stave off the radiational cooling so far this evening with
several locations already showing decoupling and temps in the
mid to upper 20s. Coldest guidance still working so will not be
making too many adjustments with this update.

Previous forecast...

two decks of clouds to consider this afternoon evening. The
lower clouds are linked to lake-effect which has been persistent
since early this morning. However, with core of +1035mb high
pres about to crest early overnight, these should be cutoff
within the next few hours. The upper lvl ci, on the periphery of
a modest jet, will likely persist, given little change in the
mid and upper lvl pattern.

Even with the ci, the high pres crest will yield decent
decoupling, in spite of the breezy conditions through the
afternoon. Mixed afternoon dwpts mainly in the single digits
suggest plenty of room for inversion development overnight.

Doubtful that the ci will limit radiational cooling, so leaned
most heavily on the colder guidance, defined mainly bet the
latest mav met guidance.

Short term 6 am Thursday morning through Friday
445 pm update...

*** winter storm watch for snow & ice inland Thu night ***
*** winter weather advisory for a wintry mix Thu night ***
*** wind advisory - strong winds Thu night Fri CAPE islands ***
synoptic overview...

anomalous cold airmass over new england tonight into Thu will set
the stage for a winter storm as a loaded southern stream system over
the gulf states induces cyclogenesis along the eastern seaboard.

Models in fairly good agreement on the large scale features
including track of mid level low and surface circulation along with
trajectory of the dry slot. As usually the case with these winter
storms there are model differences in thermal fields which is
typical at this time range.

Details...

Thursday...

mid level ridging in concert with 1034 mb high over the region
provides dry weather thu. While it will be cold with highs only in
the 30s, much less wind than today which will make tomorrow more
tolerable. However moisture from southern stream system approaches
from the southwest late in the day with snow possible overspreading
the ct and ri between 4-7 pm. The column along with surface temps
are cold enough to support snow across all of ct-ri. Strong 850 mb
jet approaching the region with lift focused in the snow growth
region may yield a descent front end dump of snow. Href indicating
30-50% probability for hourly snowfall rates approaching 1" toward
00z across ct and ri. Thus could see some impact to the late day
commute from hfd-pvd. Elsewhere snow likely holds off until after 7
pm.

Ptype snowfall potential...

anomalous cold airmass over the region this evening with dew pts in
the single digits! This 1030+ mb high over maine and new brunswick
combined with pres falls approaching from the southwest will likely
induce a coastal front to setup over eastern ma, shifting winds from
e to nne during Thu evening. This will maintain low level cold air
and support all snow for at least a few hours Thu evening. However
as the low level jet approaches, onshore flow will increase and the
coastal front will likely retreat inland first to the rt-128
corridor then i-495 corridor. This will result in the rain-snow line
moving onshore into eastern ma. Complicating the forecast is also
warm air aloft surging northward with mid levels becoming isothermal
suggesting snow mixing with sleet. However the forcing for ascent is
fairly robust during the evening (00z-06z) which may be sufficient
to cool this layer along with heavy snow melting in this layer
providing additional cooling. NAM soundings hold onto this snow
potential until about midnight or so for the greater boston area. If
this verifies looking at potential 2-4" before a change over to
sleet and finally rain. However if sleet mixes in sooner along with
coastal front moving inland quicker, a coating to 2 inches is more
likely for boston area. Just too early to say which scenario will
play out. Given the wintry mix of precipitation expected a winter
weather advisory has been issued.

For ri and southeast ma brief period of snow, heavy at times from 7
pm to 10 pm then snow changing over to sleet and finally all rain.

Snow accumulations of 1-2" possible with up to 3" possible northern
ri. A winter weather has also been issued for this area.

For ct and especially western - central ma 2-4" of snow is possible
before dry slot overspreads the area, changing snow and sleet to
freezing rain around or shortly after midnight. Concern here is for
an extended period of freezing rain drizzle into Fri morning as low
level cold air will be difficult to scour out with pres falls
tracking up the eastern seaboard. This will support good northerly
drainage flow down the ct river valley supporting freezing
rain drizzle from about midnight into Fri morning. So given the
potential for 2-4" of snow followed by significant icing decided to
go with a winter storm watch to highlight the potential for
significant winter weather. This is for all of northern ct into
western-central ma Thu evening into Fri morning.

Other contributing factors for the potential for a period of heavy
snow is strong forcing for ascent in the snow growth region (-10c to
-18c) and isothermal layers aloft.

Strong wind potential...

we hoisted a wind advisory for CAPE cod and the islands Thu night
into Fri as low level jet moves across this area. Model soundings
suggest high probability for 40+ kt ene gusts.

Long term Friday night through Wednesday
Highlights...

* cooler than normal conditions persist.

* weak low pressure may bring scattered rain snow showers late
sun into mon
overview and model preferences...

zonal flow, mainly at the base of a persistent longwave trof,
develops in the wake of late week storm and attendant shortwave.

Given this is really on the elongated base of this trof, there
is a continued conduit for canadian cp air to filter into the
region through the weekend, in spite of the slight sw-ne
orientation of the mean jet aloft. The next feature to watch, is
a lobe of arctic energy rotating around a cutoff low pres near
james bay. This should enact at least modest cyclogenesis along
a stalled frontal boundary along or just S of S new england by
late Sun into mon. Whether the inland low pres, tied closely to
the vort-max to the N is able to efficiently transfer energy to
coastal low later mon. Given there is some uncertainty, thermal
profiles also retain uncertainty. These will be better resolved
with time. Otherwise, with vort-max shifting E into the middle
of next week, a return of drier but chilly weather is
anticipated, given the longwave trof remains in play. Models are
showing enough agreement with the 14.12z guidance update,
enough that a consensus blend can be used.

Details...

fri night into sat...

blustery w-nw flow continues following the low pres shifting
into the canadian maritimes. Strong cold advection coincident
with this flow. Lows mainly in the 20s with colder wind chills
fri night give way to highs mainly in the mid to upper 40s sat.

Sun...

weak w-e oriented front settles near S new england, but the
area remains entrenched beneath cold airmass and influence of
lingering inverted ridging. Therefore, will favor mainly dry
conditions through the daylight hours with temps remaining in
the low-mid 40s.

Sun night into mon...

inland low pres development, with potential coastal low
development possible. At this time, airmass looks to cool enough
in the low lvls Sun night to support predominantly sn across
the region except mainly the immediate S coast where onshore
component will draw across ssts still around +10c. Whether the
low pres develops further offshore Mon will determine whether
colder air gets locked in. At this time, consensus blend
supports a mainly wintry event and will continue with this.

Limiting factor will be qpf, as the origins of this low pres
across the conus. Therefore, looking at mainly an advisory lvl
system if that.

Into mid next week...

high pres, associated with an arctic airmass will settle across
the region into mid week. The pattern remains under influence
of the longwave trof. So, expect the dry and cooler than normal
conditions to persist.

Aviation 23z Wednesday through Monday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Friday ... High confidence.

Tonight...

vfr. Winds dissipating through 05z.

Thursday...

vfr to start but MVFR 22z-02z across ct-ri and south coast of
ma as snow overspreads this region. Snowfall hourly rates may
approach 1 inch per hour toward 00z from bdl-pvd and points
southward.

Thursday night...

MVFR to start but then lowering to ifr lifr after 03z. Snow
heavy at times 00z-03z but then changing over to rain south
coast. Snow and sleet changes over to freezing rain inland with
all rain in the coastal plain. Strong NE winds develop south
coast after 06z.

Friday...

ifr lifr in the morning with rain showers except freezing rain
possible interior. Strong NE winds early CAPE cod. Improving to
MVFR-VFR during the afternoon with wind shift to the west.

Kbos terminal... High confidence in TAF thru 00z fri. Snow may
hold off until after 00z Fri then briefly heavy until about
02z-04z. Coating upwards to 2 inches possible. Low prob of 3 to
4 inches but coating to 2 inches more likely as of now.

Kbdl terminal... High confidence in TAF thru 18z thu. Snow
arrives Thu 21z-00z with hourly snowfall rates approaching 1
inch per hour possible toward 00z and thereafter until 03z
before changing to sleet and freezing rain.

Outlook Friday night through Monday ...

Friday night through Saturday night:VFR. Breezy.

Sunday: mainlyVFR, with local ifr possible late. Slight chance
sn late.

Sunday night: mainly ifr, with areas MVFR possible. Chance sn,
chance ra.

Monday: MVFR ifr conditions possible. Breezy. Chance ra, chance
sn.

Marine
*** NE gales likely Thu night Fri morning ***
tonight and Thursday... Light winds with 1030+ mb high over
maine.

Thursday night... Ne gales with vsby reduced less than a mile
initially in heavy snow then over to rain as low pressure tracks
along the south coast.

Friday... Low pres near CAPE cod exits with improving weather
during the afternoon.

Outlook Friday night through Monday ...

Friday night: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds with
areas of gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 13 ft.

Saturday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Saturday night: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft.

Sunday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Sunday night: winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain.

Monday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Chance of rain.

Hydrology
Renewed river flooding is possible across ri and eastern ma with
0.50 to 1.0 inches of rainfall possible Thu night into Fri after
a few inches of snow first. Will have to watch this closely.

Tides coastal flooding
Astronomical tides are very low (below 9 ft) in boston. Thus
with this upcoming storm worse case scenario would be isolated
minor flooding possible.

Climate
Record low temps for nov 15
bos 17 in 1933
pvd 18 in 1905
bdl 17 in 1905 and 1933
orh 14 in 1933
record low MAX temps for nov 15
bos 30 in 1933
pvd 30 in 1933
bdl 30 in 1933
orh 30 in 1972 and 1996

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... Winter storm watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday
morning for ctz002>004.

Ma... Wind advisory from 1 am to 10 am est Friday for maz022>024.

Winter weather advisory from 4 pm Thursday to 1 am est Friday
for maz017>021.

Winter weather advisory from 7 pm Thursday to 1 am est Friday
for maz007-013>016.

Winter storm watch from Thursday evening through Friday
morning for maz002>006-008>012-026.

Ri... Wind advisory from 1 am to 10 am est Friday for riz008.

Winter weather advisory from 4 pm Thursday to 1 am est Friday
for riz001>007.

Marine... Gale warning from 10 pm Thursday to 4 pm est Friday for
anz232>235-237-254>256.

Gale warning from 7 am to 4 pm est Friday for anz230.

Gale warning from 1 am to 4 pm est Friday for anz231-250-251.

Synopsis... Nocera doody
near term... Doody
short term... Nocera
long term... Doody
aviation... Nocera doody
marine... Nocera doody
hydrology...

tides coastal flooding...

climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44090 11 mi37 min 52°F5 ft
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 19 mi27 min NNW 19 G 25 35°F 50°F1032.1 hPa13°F
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 23 mi52 min 4.1 35°F 1032 hPa11°F
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 31 mi37 min 34°F 51°F1032.1 hPa (+3.5)
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 32 mi37 min NNW 11 G 17 34°F 48°F1032 hPa (+3.4)
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 32 mi47 min NW 23 G 29 33°F 8 ft1031.3 hPa12°F
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 49 mi47 min NW 21 G 29 33°F 51°F4 ft1031.7 hPa13°F

Wind History for Nantucket Island, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA8 mi41 minNNW 8 G 1710.00 miFair33°F7°F33%1031.7 hPa
Chatham, Chatham Municipal Airport, MA10 mi45 minNW 10 G 2110.00 miMostly Cloudy33°F8°F35%1032.1 hPa
Provincetown Municipal Airport, MA18 mi41 minNNW 24 G 2810.00 miFair and Windy32°F10°F40%1032.1 hPa
Otis Air National Guard Base, MA20 mi42 minNNW 710.00 miFair30°F3°F31%1032.8 hPa

Wind History from HYA (wind in knots)
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1 day agoCalmCalm5S8SE66SE8SE7SE9
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2 days agoW7W76NW74W6W4W4W4CalmW3W3W3N4N5N4SW8S11S8SW6SW8SW5NE3NE3

Tide / Current Tables for South Yarmouth, Bass River, Nantucket Sound, Massachusetts
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South Yarmouth
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:31 AM EST     2.57 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:28 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:25 AM EST     0.53 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:15 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:21 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:39 PM EST     2.75 feet High Tide
Wed -- 10:21 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.71.11.72.22.52.52.31.91.40.90.60.60.91.41.82.32.72.72.521.510.5

Tide / Current Tables for Pollock Rip Channel, Massachusetts Current
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Pollock Rip Channel
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:03 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 04:42 AM EST     -1.48 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 06:27 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:53 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 11:19 AM EST     1.57 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 12:14 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 02:16 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 04:20 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 04:56 PM EST     -1.49 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 08:05 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 10:21 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 11:46 PM EST     1.87 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.710.1-0.9-1.4-1.5-1.2-0.70.10.81.31.61.51.10.3-0.7-1.3-1.5-1.3-0.8-0.10.81.41.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (19,4,5,8)
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.