Sunrise 5:33 AM   Sunset 7:42 PM Moonrise 2:52 AM   Moonset 1:08 PM

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ANZ231 Cape Cod Bay- 106 Am Edt Thu May 2 2024
Rest of tonight - S winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. Wave detail: ne 1 ft at 4 seconds and S 1 ft at 6 seconds. Patchy fog.Thu - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. Wave detail: S 1 ft at 3 seconds and E 1 ft at 4 seconds. Patchy fog. A chance of showers in the morning. Thu night - E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: S 1 ft at 4 seconds and E 1 ft at 4 seconds. Patchy fog. A chance of showers in the evening. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Fri - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: N 1 ft at 3 seconds and S 1 ft at 6 seconds. Fri night and Sat - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: N 1 ft at 3 seconds and S 1 ft at 5 seconds. Sat night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: E 1 ft at 2 seconds and E 1 ft at 10 seconds. Sun through Mon - SW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers. Mon night - SW winds around 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.

ANZ200 106 Am Edt Thu May 2 2024
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters - High pres will be over the waters tonight then move offshore Thu. Low pres will cross new eng and the waters Thu afternoon and evening. High pres over the maritimes will build south into new england Fri and Sat, then head to nova scotia Sun. A weak front will move into the region Mon.

FXUS61 KBOX 020530 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 130 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024

SYNOPSIS
A weak low pressure will bring scattered showers near the coast Thursday. High pressure north of our region will bring dry and seasonable weather Friday and most of Saturday with onshore winds. An approaching front should bring showers late Saturday into Sunday. Dry and warmer weather is expected early next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
Loss of daytime heating is leading to clearing skies this evening. However, stratus was lurking just offshore. This stratus is expected to return later tonight once the flow turns first light SE then S. Will also need the boundary layer to cool a little bit, decreasing the dew point depressions.

Mainly dry overnight, except for the risk of some passing showers towards daybreak across the eastern half of MA.

Previous Discussion...

Mainly dry the rest of today with a low chance for an isolated shower across the Berkshires and CT river valley this afternoon as 100-200 J/kg of SBCAPE builds with some sunshine. Low clouds and pockets of fog form again overnight as surface winds turn south and bring in low level moisture. Overnight lows again stay in the mid to upper 40s with low cloud cover and weak warm air advection.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/
Tomorrow:

Shortwave trough and associated surface low drops south from northern New England. An area of light showers associated with a cold front move through tomorrow morning, however, guidance is mixed on the extent south and intensity of these showers. The best forcing for showers looks to mainly stay confined to northeast MA. Later in the afternoon, the center of the low pressure and core of shortwave energy passes over eastern MA. At this point, 100-200 J/kg of MUCAPE will be able to build, allowing for isolated convective showers to form across eastern MA, with the best chance over northeast MA again. With the low amount of instability, there is a low chance for a rumble of thunder with any showers tomorrow afternoon. Confidence was not high enough to include mention in the forecast database at this point.

High temperatures have trended warmer tomorrow with SSW flow, and increasing chances for sunny to partly sunny skies across western MA and CT. Stuck with the NBM for temperatures tomorrow with highs in the mid to upper 70s in the CT river valley, and upper 60s to low 70s in RI and Eastern MA away from the coasts.

Tomorrow night:

Winds shift NE overnight as the center of the low moves south offshore and high pressure builds in to the north. This will bring all the low clouds and fog back onshore, eventually pushing west over much of the region. This keeps low temps mild once again only dropping into the upper 40s to low 50s. Rain and shower chances quickly decrease as the low exits and upper level ridge builds in.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Key Points:

* Overall quiet weather pattern ahead * Scattered showers late Saturday into Sunday * Warmup early next week

Still have the greatest confidence in dry weather persisting through most of Saturday. Still some disagreement in when showers could arrive late Saturday into Sunday. Both the 01/12Z GFS and CMC suggest at least a risk for showers along the east coast of MA late Saturday afternoon, while the larger NationalBlend ensemble maintains dry weather for the same time frame. Given the synoptic pattern, with a high pressure just to the east of New England, favoring the drier NationalBlend solution into Saturday night. This still pushes the focus for weekend showers into Sunday.

Trickier forecast for earlier next week. Latest guidance suite still exhibited some timing and amplitude differences with the evolution of a mid level longwave trough near the Rockies. This will eventually impact our weather downstream. Our proximity to a surface front will be critical to our forecast outcome. At present, thinking this front will be pushed far enough south where mainly dry weather prevails Monday and Tuesday, before returning north as a warm front some time Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Near normal temperatures expected through Saturday, before briefly trending below normal Sunday. Likely to see above normal temperatures early next week.

AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Forecast Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

06Z TAF

Through 12Z...Moderate Confidence

GOES nightime microphysics is beginning to show SCT to BKN lower cloud bases filling in across southern New England. Still expecting VFR ceilings to fall to IFR as we approach sunrise and likely by 12Z. Light south winds.

Today...High Confidence in Trends

MVFR/IFR ceilings will lift/scatter out late morning/early afternoon from west to east. Thus, VFR conditions should prevails for most of the day. Winds increase close to 10 knots and shift form south to southwest through about 18Z. Thereafter, a weak low-pressure circulation will move over east/northeast MA resulting in winds shifting to east and eventually northeast by 00Z. A few showers will be possible at BOS/BED and The Cape/Islands terminals between 21 and 00Z.

Tonight...High confidence

IFR ceilings return overnight with steady northeast winds from 5 to 10 knots.

Tomorrow... High confidence.

MVFR/IFR ceilings lift/scatter out to VFR by mid-morning. Steady northeasterly winds becoming more easterly after 18Z.

KBOS TAF...Moderate confidence

Not expecting LIFR ceilngs for the morning push. MVFR should be the prevailing flight category, but can't rule out cloud bases getting just below 1000 feet.

KBDL TAF...Moderate confidence.

IFR ceilings likely develop between 06-12Z but will improve to VFR by 15Z.

Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...

Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible.

Friday Night: VFR.

Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible.

Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.

Sunday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.

Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA.

Monday: VFR.

MARINE
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Tonight: Winds shift south tonight remaining 10 knots or less with calm seas.

Tomorrow:

Weak low pressure brings scattered showers and a low chance for a rumble of thunder mainly across the northern waters. Winds remain south at 10-15 knots gusting 20 knots. Light seas of 1-3 feet.

Tomorrow night: Low clouds and fog possible overnight. Winds turn ENE again at 5-10 knots and seas remain 1-3 feet.

Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...

Friday through Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt.

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers.

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers.

Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Slight chance of rain showers.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

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South Yarmouth
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Wed -- 12:49 AM EDT     0.49 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:20 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:36 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:02 AM EDT     2.85 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:27 AM EDT     Last Quarter
Wed -- 11:51 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 01:33 PM EDT     0.15 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:39 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 07:52 PM EDT     2.54 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

South Yarmouth, Bass River, Nantucket Sound, Massachusetts (2), Tide feet

Pollock Rip Channel
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Wed -- 12:17 AM EDT     1.43 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 02:18 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 03:36 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:36 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:17 AM EDT     -1.50 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 07:27 AM EDT     Last Quarter
Wed -- 09:23 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 11:51 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 12:53 PM EDT     1.82 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 04:27 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:02 PM EDT     -1.43 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 07:38 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:13 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Pollock Rip Channel, Massachusetts Current, knots

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