Saturday, March25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
East Sandwich, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:32AMSunset 7:01PM Saturday March 25, 2017 11:42 AM EDT (15:42 UTC) Moonrise 5:18AMMoonset 4:23PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ231 Cape Cod Bay- 1033 Am Edt Sat Mar 25 2017
This afternoon..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Showers likely.
Tonight..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. A chance of showers.
Sun..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sun night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of rain.
Mon..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Rain likely.
Mon night..S winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming W after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. Rain likely.
Tue..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Tue night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. A chance of rain.
Wed..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Wed night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height...which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 1033 Am Edt Sat Mar 25 2017
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. A cold front will pass across the southern waters from the N this afternoon...then stall south of the waters on Sunday and Mon. Low pres will cross the waters Tue into Wed. High pres will build over new england later Wed and Thu. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period...please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near East Sandwich, MA
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location: 41.75, -70.45     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 251432
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service taunton ma
1032 am edt Sat mar 25 2017

Synopsis
A cold front along the south coast will move offshore to the
south this afternoon, then stall to our south tonight. The front
will then push northward as a warm front Sunday. Active weather
pattern continues Sunday through Tuesday, with the potential
for wintry precip Sunday night. Below average temperatures
return by mid-week with another shot of precip by the end of
next week.

Near term /until 6 pm this evening/
Satellite imagery shows clouds over most of southern new
england. Hints of breaks or thin spots, mainly over CAPE cod and
buzzards bay, but otherwise any clearing is south of the south
coasts of nantucket and block island. Surface winds over land
are north to northeast with speeds 5-10 knots. The clouds and
north winds are keeping temperatures from climbing much, with a
spread from the upper 30s to mid 40s.

Don't expect much warming this afternoon due to those clouds and
due to the north wind bringing colder air into our region. So
temps should top out in the upper 30s and 40s.

Isentropic surfaces show lift moving in from the west this
afternoon and then slipping off to the southeast by evening.

With low level flow parallel to the front this lift seems less
like overrunning and more like undercutting by the colder north
wind. Regional radar does show a broad east-west area of rain
stretching from glens falls west along the ny thruway corridor.

This rain is moving east. Bottom line is for a period of rain
this afternoon/evening. Break out the umbrellas.

Late morning dew points in SRN new england are all above
freezing, with a moist airmass above. The morning soundings out
of albany and buffalo show a moist trace with temperature and
wet bulb temperature both at or above freezing almost to 10
thousand feet agl. Can't rule out a rain/sleet/snow mix,
especially in marginal areas near the nh/vt border, but
primarily rain.

Short term /6 pm this evening through 6 pm Sunday/
A high pressure over southeast canada and northern new england
will nudge slightly farther south tonight into Sunday. Still
expecting dry weather for much of tonight. The high pressure to
the north is a near classic cold air damming signature. It will
also provide an excellent overrunning surface.

Low level ageostrophic winds become north late tonight at 1000
mb and 925 mb. The ageostrophic winds at 925 mb shift east to
southeast Sunday morning, a sign of increasing warm air
advection aloft.

Depending upon the timing of precipitation tonight into Sunday,
there is a window for a period of sleet or freezing rain across
the interior. The areas most a risk are central and western ma,
northern ct and northern ri. Expecting temperatures to rise
above freezing by noon Sunday, ending the threat of mixed
precipitation. Will need to monitor the extent of the low level
cold pool very carefully. This timing may change with later
forecasts.

Near normal temperatures expected tonight, and Sunday.

Long term /Sunday night through Friday/
Highlights...

* a period of wintry precip including sleet/frz rain Sunday night
* unsettled weather pattern will continue into Tuesday
* improving conditions for mid-week
* active weather returns late in the week into the weekend
pattern overview...

00z models and ensembles continue to show an active weather pattern
for the region with split flow aloft and several shortwaves ejecting
in from the pacific. First wave is the closed 500mb low currently
over the southern plains. This low deamplifies into an open wave as
it approaches the northeast on Monday. Surface high pressure
persists over northern new england keeping surface temperatures
cool, resulting in mixed precip at times into early next week.

Heavier precip possible on Monday as first open wave moves overhead.

A second wave will follow a similar path from the plains towards the
northeast before interacting with the northern jet stream on Tuesday
bringing another shot of precip. Lots of uncertainty with the next
southern stream wave and its potential interaction with the northern
stream late in the week.

Details...

Sunday night into Monday... Moderate confidence.

*** increasing chances for a period of sleet/freezing rain across
the higher terrain Sunday night into Monday morning ***
stalled front south of the region will begin to return back north as
a warm front late Sunday into Monday, as surface low pressure moves
into the great lakes. Although warmer air aloft should move easily
back into the region, the low-level cold air may be a little tougher
to dislodge due to the nearby surface high pressure. Both the nam
and high-res versions of the ec and GFS are indicating northerly
winds across the ct valley, a clear sign of cold air damming.

While the surface cold air is in place, the focus then turns to
precipitation amounts and timing. Spotty light precip may start out
during the first half of the night, but as the upper level shortwave
approaches, there appears to be enough synoptic lift for higher qpf
chances. While there is still some uncertainty with the thermal
profiles but cross-sections, soundings and even cips analogs show
this timeframe has the potential for icing especially north of the
pike. Sleet and freezing rain are the main concerns, with the chance
that freezing rain could be ongoing during the Monday morning
commute. Keep in mind that a difference of a degree or two in the
thermal profiles will change the p-type. Winter weather
headlines may be needed.

Surface temps will eventually warm above freezing during the later
half of the day, with the chance that some sites may struggle to get
into the 40s due to cold air damming. Models continue to advertise
that Monday morning into the early afternoon will see the highest
qpf thanks to synoptic lift from passing open wave and the
development of a secondary low over the region. Pwat values also
increase above an inch, so widespread rainfall is possible. Precip
chances will begin to wind down by the evening hours. Overall it
appears that Monday will be a chilly, raw, damp day especially north
of the pike. South of the pike has the chance of getting into a warm
sector with temps near 50f.

Monday night into Wednesday... Low confidence.

Weak ridging in the mid-levels will result in a break in the precip.

Focus then turns to the secondary pacific wave which is just now
moving onshore. This wave will interact with the northern stream but
the question is how soon and will this slow the precip chances down
per previous runs. Ec has become less amplified and more progressive
compared to the GFS which could result in a more zonal flow during
this period. This difference could result in a slow down to
precipitation timing and temperature differences Tuesday into
Wednesday. However both models continue to show arctic front passing
through by the second half of Wednesday. Overall expect near
seasonable temperatures for this period with precip chances sometime
between Tuesday and Wednesday. Confidence will increase once models
have a better sampling of onshore pacific wave.

Thursday... Moderate confidence.

Upper level trough overhead as a few shortwaves moves through the
flow. Canadian high pressure will build into the northeast leading to
a break in the precip chances.

Friday into the weekend... Low confidence.

Active pattern remains for the region with the next southern stream
wave interacting with the northern stream. The ec continues to be
more amplified than the GFS stalling the timing of any precip on
Friday. Latest ensembles appears to be trending this way as well.

Overall this portion of the forecast will depend on the strength and
timing of the upper level wave and thus surface reflections. Because
of the large spread in the guidance will continue with low
confidence forecast.

Aviation /15z Saturday through Wednesday/
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term /through Sunday/... Moderate confidence.

This afternoon... A cold front moves south of the south coast
this afternoon. An area of light rain over upstate new york will
move east across southern new england this afternoon. As the
rain develops, expect CIGS and vsbys lowering to MVFR. North
winds shift from the northeast this afternoon and evening.

Tonight... MainlyVFR as high pressure builds from the north.

MVFR will lurk to our southwest, preparing to move north again.

East flow through the night.

Sunday... MainlyVFR, with areas of MVFR in precipitation. Some
freezing rain or sleet possible Sunday morning.

Kbos taf... High confidence in TAF trends. Moderate confidence in
timing.

Kbdl taf... High confidence in TAF trends. Moderate confidence in
timing.

Outlook /Sunday night through Wednesday/...

Sunday night... Moderate confidence. CIGS lower to MVFR/ifr in
due to increasing low level moisture. Spotty precip will
increase closer to daybreak. Anticipate areas of -fzra/-pl
across the interior overnight.

Monday-Monday night... Moderate confidence. Any leftover
-fzra/-pl Monday morning will end across higher terrain.

Otherwise MVFR-ifr CIGS in rain.

Tuesday into Wednesday... Low confidence.

MVFR conditions within any passing rain showers with improving
cigs toVFR by Wednesday. N/w winds continue.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term /through Sunday/...

this afternoon... High confidence. North winds this afternoon
shift from the northeast as high pressure builds south from
quebec. Winds will be less than 25 knots through the day. Seas
will linger at 5 feet on the southern outer waters through the
afternoon. Small craft advisories continue where needed.

Tonight... High confidence. Northeast winds turn from due east
overnight. Speeds remain below 20 knots through the night. Seas
will remain less than 5 feet through the night.

Sunday... High confidence. East winds continue less than 20 kt
Sunday. Seas remain less than 5 feet.

Outlook /Sunday night through Wednesday/...

Monday... Moderate confidence. Approaching upper level system and
passing warm front will increase precip as well as wind and seas
across the waters. SCA may be needed.

Tuesday into Wednesday... Moderate confidence. Frontal system
will pass over the waters increasing them to above 5 feet. Sca
may be needed.

Box watches/warnings/advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for
anz254>256.

Synopsis... Wtb/belk/dunten
near term... Wtb/dunten
short term... Belk
long term... Dunten
aviation... Belk/dunten
marine... Wtb/belk/dunten


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44090 9 mi69 min 37°F
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 12 mi58 min 46°F 39°F
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 20 mi43 min 45°F 37°F1022.7 hPa (+1.4)
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 26 mi53 min 39°F1 ft1022.8 hPa (+1.8)
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 37 mi43 min NNE 5.1 G 9.9 42°F 37°F1023.2 hPa (+2.2)
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 38 mi43 min 45°F 39°F1023.2 hPa (+1.4)
FRXM3 39 mi43 min 44°F 38°F
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 39 mi43 min NE 12 G 14 40°F 1023.4 hPa (+1.9)
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 39 mi43 min NNE 11 G 14 45°F 1023.2 hPa (+1.4)
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 43 mi53 min NE 14 G 19 39°F 40°F1 ft1022.6 hPa (+1.7)
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 47 mi43 min N 8 G 11 44°F 39°F1023.4 hPa (+2.2)
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 48 mi58 min NE 7 46°F 1023 hPa39°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 48 mi43 min NE 4.1 G 5.1 44°F 1024.1 hPa (+2.3)
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 49 mi43 min N 6 G 8.9 46°F 38°F1023.1 hPa (+2.2)

Wind History for Nantucket Island, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Otis Air National Guard Base, MA7 mi48 minno data10.00 miOvercast45°F37°F76%1023.4 hPa
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA10 mi47 minNNE 810.00 miLight Rain45°F37°F77%1022.6 hPa
Plymouth, Plymouth Municipal Airport, MA19 mi51 minENE 810.00 miOvercast42°F37°F82%1023.3 hPa
Provincetown, Provincetown Municipal Airport, MA22 mi47 minNE 1010.00 miMostly Cloudy42°F37°F82%1023.4 hPa

Wind History from FMH (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Cape Cod Canal (East Entrance), Massachusetts
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Cape Cod Canal (East Entrance)
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Sat -- 03:39 AM EDT     0.80 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:17 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:36 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:53 AM EDT     9.24 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:08 PM EDT     0.22 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:23 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:00 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:24 PM EDT     8.89 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
6.14.32.51.10.91.93.65.57.38.79.28.575.131.10.20.72.245.97.78.88.7

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Cod Canal, Massachusetts Current
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Cape Cod Canal
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:04 AM EDT     0.03 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:05 AM EDT     3.83 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 05:18 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:36 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:22 AM EDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Sat -- 11:16 AM EDT     -4.37 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 02:26 PM EDT     0.19 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:23 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:35 PM EDT     4.19 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 07:00 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:59 PM EDT     -0.20 knots Slack
Sat -- 11:44 PM EDT     -4.32 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-3.7-2.8-0.82.63.53.83.73.11.8-2.4-3.8-4.3-4.2-3.5-22.23.54.14.23.82.9-0.2-3.1-4.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.