Thursday, September20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Justice, IL

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9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 6:36AMSunset 6:52PM Thursday September 20, 2018 2:14 AM CDT (07:14 UTC) Moonrise 4:54PMMoonset 2:04AM Illumination 78% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ742 Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor- 849 Pm Cdt Wed Sep 19 2018
Rest of tonight..Northeast winds 10 to 15 kt becoming south toward daybreak. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft.
Thursday..South winds 10 to 20 kt increasing to 15 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms through the day. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Thursday night..Southwest winds to 30 kt. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves 3 to 5 ft. A small craft advisory will likely be needed.
Friday..West winds 20 to 25 kt becoming northwest in the afternoon. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning. Waves 2 to 4 ft. A small craft advisory will likely be needed.
LMZ742 Expires:201809201030;;908466 FZUS53 KLOT 200149 NSHLOT NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 849 PM CDT Wed Sep 19 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the average height of the highest 10 percent of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. LMZ740>742-201030-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Justice, IL
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location: 41.75, -87.84     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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Fxus63 klot 200559
afdlot
area forecast discussion
national weather service chicago romeoville, il
1259 am cdt Thu sep 20 2018

Update
836 pm cdt
the main change to the forecast was removing precip chances for
most of the night. Radar trends indicate convection over iowa will
continue to shift northeast, and the latest rap analysis
indicates a stable layer over northern il. Near term models also
suggest that most of the night should be dry. Some models continue
to suggest showers and storms may reach the rockford area and
other areas along the il wi state line late tonight into Thursday
morning. I left chance or lower precip chances over these regions,
but my overall confidence is low in timing and coverage.

Only other concern is wind gusts may be stronger Thursday. Raised
wind gusts to 25-30 mph.

Jee

Short term
313 pm cdt
through this evening...

main forecast concerns challenges are with shower thunderstorm
trends this afternoon into this evening, and once again later
tonight into Thursday morning.

Latest radar trends showing the precip shield which has been
approaching the CWA today now in place across north central il,
along and west of i-39. This area of precip will likely continue
to push further east over the next several hours, but likely
staying similar with coverage and intensity. Thunder has remained
limited with this precip, though isolated thunder will still
likely remain possible as it moves into remaining areas in
northern il, along north of i-88, this afternoon.

A boundary situated across the southern portions of the CWA in
east central il in is providing widely varying conditions over the
area, with conditions south of the boundary now quite unstable.

Will need to keep an eye on this location for possible isolated
thunderstorm development this afternoon into the evening for a
couple of reasons. First, satellite trends have shown expanding cu
development along south of the kankakee river valley. Steep low
level lapse rates now in place, with latest rap analysis showing
sb instability and limited cin. Current precip trends just to the
south could easily affect the southern cwa, and have kept slight
chance pops for this afternoon. Not overly confident with how
intense any storms could get, but can't rule out an isolated
stronger storm. Second, additional storm development over east and
southeast ia is slowly diminishing while moving east southeast.

However, it will be reaching this more unstable area here in the
near term, and it's quite possible for it to continue following
the instability southeast. If this were to occur, once again,
locations south of the kankakee river valley would have the
highest chances. The threat for an isolated stronger storm would
also be possible with this area of precip. Precip chances are then
expected to lower by evening, with dry conditions generally
expected this evening before chances increase once again late
tonight.

Rodriguez

Long term
344 pm cdt
late tonight through Wednesday...

most guidance in general agreement with returning precip chances
across the region late tonight into Thursday morning, though there
still is some lower confidence with exact placement of this
development. Have maintained similar trends thoughts in the
forecast for this period, with scattered thunderstorm development
expected mainly along and north of i-88, with the highest chances
still remaining just to the north. This will be in response to the
now lifting boundary, while the LLJ increases across the region.

As this occurs late tonight, should see initial isolated
development become more scattered into early Thursday morning.

With increasing instability, a strong to severe threat will be in
place. Instability will likely be elevated during this time, with
mainly a hail threat expected. Any development should lift further
north with time during late morning and midday, but will continue
to monitor additional isolated development area wide during this
time. With the expected trend north with this development, have
left high temps alone for tomorrow with low 90s expected. If
additional development occurs through midday, then temps could be
lower than forecast. On the opposite side, if precip does not
develop late tonight into Thursday, then will monitor for highs
more in the mid 90s.

Although isolated storms are possible Thursday afternoon, expect
mainly dry conditions into Thursday evening. Surface low expected
to lift northeast through the great lakes region, with associated
boundary pushing east through the CWA Thursday night into Friday
morning. Guidance varying to the extent of any precip along this
front as it moves through the area. Do think scattered development
will be in place along this front, but intensity should be
limited as the stronger large scale ascent will be to the north.

As front pushes east on Friday, precip chances quickly lower.

Cooler and dry conditions then expected this weekend into early
next week.

Rodriguez

Climate
Record high temps could be jeopardy Thursday. Here are the
current records:
chicago 92 (2017)
rockford 92 (1920)

Aviation
For the 06z tafs...

the main concern through the period will be the timing of wind
direction changes, and increasing southerly winds today.

Additionally, we will once again be on the lookout for storms
possibly impacting some of the terminals overnight, and then
possibly again this afternoon.

Winds are likely to remain easterly a bit longer early today as it
appears that the warm front may be slower to move northward across
the area into this afternoon. Therefore, it appears that the area
will remain in an area favorable for low CIGS through at least
around daybreak. Current satellite imagery indicates that the
eastern edge of these ifr CIGS are right near ord. So, the main
chicago area terminals maybe in and out of low CIGS through the
night. Lowering vsby will also be possible at the terminals as dew
point depressions lower.

The other concern is for a round of thunderstorms overnight
towards daybreak. For the most part the focus for storms has
remained north of the area into southern wi. However, current
trends with the thunderstorms in iowa indicate outflow pushing the
storms a bit more to the south. As a result, it appears probable
that a round of thunderstorms will push across far northern il
after 09z. It appears krfd stands the best chance of getting in on
this activity, though I am concerned the ord and dpa could also
see some of this activity move into the area just prior to
daybreak. For now I have added a vcts at both sites to cover this
threat, but I have left it out of mdw and gyy for now. Trends will
need to continue to be watched overnight.

With the possibly for a slower northward moving warm front, it is
possible that some additional isolated to widely scattered storms
could develop in the vicinity of the chicago area terminals this
afternoon. However, confidence is very low at this time on if this
will occur, so I have left the mention out of the TAF at this
time.

Otherwise, expect winds to turn southerly and begin to increase by
late this afternoon early this evening as the warm front finally
shifts north of the area. It appears that winds will gust up to 30
kt at times tonight from the south-southwest.

Kjb

Lot watches warnings advisories
Il... None.

In... None.

Lm... None.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JAKI2 14 mi134 min E 2.9 G 5.1 71°F
CNII2 14 mi29 min ESE 2.9 G 8 68°F 66°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 16 mi44 min N 1 G 1.9 68°F 1014.3 hPa68°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 18 mi44 min SE 5.1 G 6 71°F 69°F
FSTI2 19 mi134 min N 1.9 69°F
45174 28 mi34 min ESE 5.8 G 7.8 70°F 70°F2 ft70°F
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 37 mi34 min SSE 6 G 8.9 73°F 1015.2 hPa
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 42 mi34 min N 11 G 14 69°F
45186 43 mi34 min N 7.8 70°F 70°F1 ft
45170 46 mi34 min SSE 7.8 G 12 71°F 70°F1 ft68°F
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 49 mi44 min ESE 11 G 14 72°F 67°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago, Chicago Midway Airport, IL6 mi21 minN 07.00 miMostly Cloudy69°F64°F87%1013.8 hPa
Chicago, Chicago-O'Hare International Airport, IL16 mi23 minN 09.00 miMostly Cloudy68°F64°F90%1014.4 hPa
Lewis University Airport, IL17 mi39 minENE 43.00 miFog/Mist66°F64°F97%1015.2 hPa
Lansing Municipal Airport, IL22 mi19 minN 03.00 miFog/Mist66°F66°F99%1015.2 hPa
Joliet Regional Airport, IL24 mi39 minN 04.00 miFog/Mist68°F67°F98%1014.9 hPa
Gary Regional Airport, IN24 mi19 minN 00.25 miFog66°F66°F100%1014.9 hPa

Wind History from MDW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE7E7NE9NE8NE10E10NE7E5E8NE7NE7NE10NE11NE10N10N12SE14
G19
E7NE6E8NE7NE5CalmCalm
1 day agoW3CalmNE4NE7NE6NE9
G21
N9NW6N4NE6N9N15
G21
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G17
N4S8SE8E6NE13E8NE8NE5NE5NE8NE8
2 days agoSE3S3S3CalmCalmCalm44W4NW3CalmCalmE4E8E8E7E5SE5CalmS3CalmCalmCalmSW4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Chicago, IL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.