Sunrise 5:58 AM   Sunset 8:27 PM Moonrise 9:45 AM   Moonset 12:38 AM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall  New

This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
PZZ330 1126 Pm Pdt Fri Aug 9 2013.thunderstorms over the waters - . Thunderstorms over the waters have weakened but isolated storms will continue overnight. Mariners can expect gusty and erratic winds with the storms along with frequent lightning. If caught on the open water stay below deck if possible - .keep away from ungrounded metal objects. Lat - .lon 4397 12411 4396 12411 4400 12413 4284 12455 4242 12440 4225 12441 4205 12428 4184 12422 4181 12580 4198 12579 4220 12589 4370 12576 4386 12565 4399 12562 4403 12414

PZZ300 205 Am Pdt Mon May 13 2024
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters - The strengthening thermal trough will produce gusty north winds and steep wind-driven seas this morning, with gales and very steep seas expected by this afternoon. The thermal trough will remain in place through this week. The strongest winds and most hazardous seas will occur in the afternoons, especially south of cape blanco.

FXUS66 KMFR 130552 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 1052 PM PDT Sun May 12 2024

DISCUSSION
Updated marine and aviation section.

AVIATION
13/06Z TAFs...Marine stratus remains over the Oregon coast, bringing IFR and LIFR ceilings to most areas offshore and along the coast, including at North Bend (KOTH). This will remain through Monday morning.

Other areas of northern California and southern Oregon will generally remain under VFR conditions through the TAF period, although with breezy to gusty afternoon winds. -BPN/Hermansen

MARINE
Updated 800 PM Sunday, May 12, 2024...The strengthening thermal trough will produce gusty north winds and steep wind-driven seas from now through Monday morning, with gales and very steep seas expected by Monday afternoon. The strongest winds and most hazardous seas will occur in the afternoons, especially south of Cape Blanco. The thermal trough is forecast to remain in place throughout the next week, with little day-to-day change. Small Craft Advisories and Gale Warnings are in effect through Wednesday, and are likely to be extended, with similar conditions forecast all the way through next weekend. -BPN/Smith

PREV DISCUSSION
/Issued 848 PM PDT Sun May 12 2024/

DISCUSSION...A few thunderstorms are in Siskiyou, Klamath and Lake counties this evening. As of 8 PM the only strikes have been in Klamath and Lake counties, with just over 50 cloud to ground strikes reported since this afternoon. Storm totals from radar show most areas that had the rain/thunderstorms saw less than a quarter of an inch with 0.25"- 0.50" in eastern Klamath County and Lake County between Beatty and Summer Lake. The path of most of these are to the east-northeast. These will start to die down over the next few hours as the sun continues to set.

After this evening, a dry trend will return for the week. Overall the work week is looking to stay warm and 5 to 15 degrees warmer than normal with ridging coming to the western United States. Later next week a cool down could bring temperatures to near normal while an upper low cuts down from Canada. -Hermansen

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 227 PM PDT Sun May 12 2024/

SHORT TERM (Today through tomorrow night)...

Overview:

The main item of importance in the short term is the thunderstorm potential (~20-25%) this afternoon across eastern portions of the forecast area. Otherwise, breezy afternoon wind speeds (15-20mph)
are possible, and overall mostly sunny skies across the region outside of our thunderstorm potential areas. The main threat today is lightning as we are not expecting severe weather. That said, lightning kills too many people each year, and having a plan for when thunderstorms develop is always the best approach towards outdoor activities.

Further Details:

A closed low over the Pacific Ocean is creating a split flow type of pattern over the western CONUS. The northern stream does have a shortwave within the northwest flow, and this will help produce thunderstorms this afternoon in conjunction with areas reaching convective temperatures. The dynamics and kinematics are not really impressive today, so this will likely be ordinary type thunderstorm day with difficulty maintaining an updraft.
Deterministic models are mostly suggesting around 200-500 J/kg of MUCAPE. This has increased slightly from yesterday. The problem today is the timing of variables phasing together. By the time the shortwave trough axis starts to come inland and swing through the forecast area producing lift, we will be losing some of the instability noted in the atmosphere today. Currently, the day cloud phase distinction product from satellite is indicating a struggle for vertical growth within a cu-field over eastern portions of the forecast area. This is likely due to lack in forcing as well as lack of moisture, especially the low levels. In fact, forecast soundings resemble an inverted-v on the eastside, so there is a chance for gusty outflow wind speeds if a thunderstorm collapses. These speeds could be as high as 40-50 mph. That problem of course is we need a thunderstorm to actually develop to have this possibility, which may be a struggle this afternoon and evening. Outside of the risk for very isolated strong outflows, lightning is really the main threat today. We are not expecting the chance for thunderstorms to go beyond 9-10pm tonight.

-Guerrero

LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...

The longer term forecast begins with upper level, long-wave ridging starting to move into the western U.S. from the Pacific.
The axis of the ridge will remain offshore, leading to northerly flow aloft. Another thermal trough, an area of low pressure induced by warm air, will continue to strengthen along the southern OR/northern CA coast Tuesday into Wednesday. This is a very similar pattern to the one we saw earlier in this week, one which brings higher than average temperatures to the area (more typical of June than May), dry weather, and sunny skies.

At lower levels, northerly flow will start to shift NE to easterly Tuesday through Wednesday. This will set off the Chetco Effect, where air is funneled down the Chetco River Valley and warms as its forced down towards sea level, which will result in warm temperatures for Brookings and the surrounding southern Curry County coast. Highs look to be in the high 70s to mid 80s through Thursday, peaking Wednesday. Farther north, more of a due northerly flow will continue night and morning stratus for the beaches from Cape Blanco northward. Inland, we'll continue to see warm temperatures each day, especially in valleys. Highs in the 80s up to 90 degrees are expected in western, inland valleys, peaking Wednesday, while east side locations will see high 70s to low 80s, likely peaking Thursday. Finally, mountainous areas will see highs in the 60s, warming slightly each day through Thursday.

Model differences increase Friday into the weekend, but generally agree that the ridge will flatten and move east as a shortwave trough approaches from the northwest Friday into Saturday. Not a lot of ensemble members are enthusiastic about any precipitation, but showers and thunderstorms are possible with this pattern. The trough will help moderate temperatures Friday into the weekend, though they'll remain warmer than average in most areas. A more progressive pattern with more troughs and transient ridges looks likely heading into next week.

-CSP

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR
CA
None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM PDT Monday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Gale Warning from 2 PM Monday to 11 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ350- 356-370-376.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Crescent City
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:38 AM PDT     Moonset
Mon -- 03:21 AM PDT     6.08 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:58 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:44 AM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:45 AM PDT     -0.45 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:58 PM PDT     5.07 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:28 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:54 PM PDT     3.41 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Crescent City, California, Tide feet

Brookings
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:40 AM PDT     Moonset
Mon -- 03:22 AM PDT     6.08 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:57 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:43 AM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:49 AM PDT     -0.45 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:59 PM PDT     5.07 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:29 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:58 PM PDT     3.41 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Brookings, Chetco Cove, Oregon, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Medford, OR,