Sunrise 5:56 AM   Sunset 8:42 PM Moonrise 4:00 PM   Moonset 2:59 AM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall  New

LEZ148 Geneva-on-the-lake To Conneaut Oh-conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 351 Am Edt Sun May 19 2024
Today - Light and variable winds. Areas of fog through early afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Tonight - Light and variable winds. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Monday - Southeast winds less than 10 knots becoming northeast. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less. Monday night - Southeast winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Tuesday through Thursday.
the water temperature off toledo is 65 degrees, off cleveland 56 degrees, and off erie 52 degrees.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KCLE 191339 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 939 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

SYNOPSIS
A ridge will build over the region through Monday with a cold front approaching from the west this afternoon and evening and lifting north as a warm front Monday. A cold front will approach from the west Tuesday night and cross the local area Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
9:35 AM Update: Just tweaks to current sky cover, temps and dew points based on obs. The remainder of the forecast remains on track with fog quickly mixing out this morning. Will watch for isolated to widely-scattered storms to develop/sag into the Toledo area late this afternoon into this evening. The severe weather threat remains minimal, though steep low to mid-level lapse rates and fairly strong DCAPE could support small hail and a couple of perkier downbursts with any overachieving cells, though greatest potential for that may remain just northwest of the Toledo area.

Previous Discussion...
Radiation fog has developed, but it is much patchier than Friday night. So far, significantly reduced visibilities have been brief and isolated, so likely won't need any sort of advisory unless conditions worsen significantly (which isn't supported by guidance). Can't rule out needing an SPS at some point primarily along the lakeshore and in locations that have received rain over the last couple of days. Any fog should quickly mix out after sunrise and expect mostly sunny to sunny skies across the majority of the area as a ridge builds in from the west.

A cold front/shortwave will near the local area from the west later today. Although the front isn't expected to cross into the CWA, there will be sufficient moisture and diurnal instability in place to allow scattered showers and thunderstorms to pulse up somewhere across NW OH late this afternoon and slowly meander south/southeast into this evening.
It's possible that the best precip chances remain to the west of the area, so maintained slight chance to chance PoPs in northwestern zones. Similar to the last couple of days, steering flow will be very weak so expect any showers/storms to move slowly, which could result in a low-end flooding risk.
Despite weak wind shear, the environment is supportive of potential for isolated instances of small hail and/or gusty winds. Convection should gradually dissipate with the loss of diurnal heating after sunset this evening. There may be another round of patchy fog tonight.

The ridge axis will center over the region Monday as the aforementioned cold front lifts north as a warm front. There may be widely scattered showers/thunderstorms along the lake breeze boundary during peak diurnal instability/heating, but otherwise forcing will be weak so PoPs are capped at slight chance. Any showers/storms that develop may be slow-moving and produce locally heavy rainfall.

The warming trend continues through the near term period with highs reaching the upper 70s to lower 80s across most of the area today and the mid to upper 80s on Monday. Locations in NW OH will likely reach the mid to upper 80s this afternoon.
Tonight's lows will be in the mild upper 50s to lower 60s.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
An upper ridge across the region is going to win out on Monday night against a shortwave trough and will opt for a dry forecast that will continue into the first part of Tuesday. A stronger shortwave will start to erode the upper ridge on Tuesday while supporting a deepening low pressure system over the Midwest. There is some opportunity for temperatures to warm enough to reach convective temperatures and allow for some diurnally driven rain/storms on Tuesday afternoon, but the strength of the ridge across the region just seems like there will be too much of a cap to get much going and have trimmed PoPs further back on Tuesday. The main forcing feature of the week will be a cold front with the low pressure system on Wednesday. This will be coincident with the main upper trough and provide the best lift for shower/storm chances. The entire system continues to slow and the best rain chances now appear to be Wednesday evening. As for storm potential with this complex, curious if there will be any debris clouds and precipitation from Tuesday's storm complex in the Midwest that may impact the area on Wednesday. However, there should be a sufficient warm, moist air mass that should be conducive to favorable storm development. Will need to continue to monitor Wednesday for severe potential.
Temperatures should continue to soar well above normal for the period, especially if rain chances continue to trend down and slower. There is a reasonable shot at 90 degrees with how dry some locations have been.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
The long term forecast period is trending generally quiet. A cold front will be exiting the region with high pressure building behind it on Thursday. PoPs will trend down to dry by Thursday night into Friday. The former cold front will try to lift back north into the area as a warm front on Saturday and have chance PoPs but the main supporting upper trough may not arrive until early next week, so the entire Friday and Saturday portions of the period may continue to trend more dry. Temperatures will be generally seasonable, trending upward into the weekend.

AVIATION /12Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/
Mixed bag of ceilings and visibilities across the area this morning thanks to patchy fog and low stratus. Expect conditions to rapidly improve near or shortly after 12Z with widespread VFR anticipated for the majority of the TAF period. A few showers/storms may move within the vicinity of KTOL/KFDY late this afternoon into this evening, but it's possible that precip remains to the west of these terminals where there will be better forcing. If any precip does manage to move directly over these sites, there may be a period of non-VFR conditions. Non- VFR is possible with patchy fog tonight, primarily in NE OH/NW PA and locations and where precipitation falls today.

Light and variable winds 5 knots or less are expected through the period.

Outlook...Low risk for isolated thunderstorms and non-VFR in Northwest OH Monday night. Somewhat greater potential for isolated to scattered thunderstorms and non-VFR Tuesday afternoon and evening. Scattered to widespread thunderstorms are likely Wednesday afternoon. Mainly VFR is expected outside of thunderstorms.

MARINE
Some fog is present on the lake this morning, but the density is not as severe as yesterday. Will have a fog mention in the forecast, but will omit a headline for now. High pressure across the region will allow for light and generally easterly flow today. The high will slide east for Monday and a warm front will cross the lake and flow will shift to be southeasterly with potential for a lake breeze to be disruptive to the flow. A low pressure system will develop over the central CONUS on Tuesday and lift northeast through the northwest Great Lakes. This system will increase the pressure gradient across the lake and southerly flow will increase as a cold front approaches the lake on Wednesday. The front will cross the lake by Thursday and westerly flow will be favored before backing once again to the southwest. Unless a brief dense fog advisory is issued this morning, there do not seem to be any marine weather headline concerns at this time.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Cleveland, OH,