Monday, April22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Orleans, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:48AMSunset 7:30PM Monday April 22, 2019 10:35 AM EDT (14:35 UTC) Moonrise 11:10PMMoonset 8:07AM Illumination 90% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ254 Coastal Waters From Provincetown Ma To Chatham Ma To Nantucket Ma Out 20 Nm- 716 Am Edt Mon Apr 22 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Today..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers this morning, then showers likely with a slight chance of tstms this afternoon. Patchy fog this afternoon. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tonight..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Patchy fog. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tue..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tue night..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 7 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed night..NW winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Thu night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Fri..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Showers likely.
Fri night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 716 Am Edt Mon Apr 22 2019
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Low pres will slowly lift north across the waters this afternoon and tonight. Yet another low pres area will move from W to E across southern quebec on Wed dragging its cold front across the waters Wed afternoon. High pres builds over the waters on Thu and Fri. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Orleans, MA
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location: 41.77, -69.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 221150
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
750 am edt Mon apr 22 2019

Synopsis
Low pressure moving up the east coast will reach CAPE cod tonight,
bringing showers especially this afternoon and evening. A weak front
will bring a round of showers Tuesday night into early Wednesday,
followed by mainly dry weather through Thursday. A stronger
front will likely bring a period of widespread rain Friday
and or Friday night. At this time, next weekend looks mainly dry
with at or below normal temperatures.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
730 am update...

dense fog has dissipated this morning as a few showers work
their way northward over ct, ri, and southeast ma. The last of
the fog should dissipate in the next 2 hours, and these should
remain light and scattered, as the heavier rain is still well
offshore to our south.

Previous discussion...

dense fog has begun to lift across ri and
se ma so we will cancel the dense fog advisory. Expect
visibilities to continue to improve as winds shift to N ne
before sunrise and few light showers lift N from ocean. Farther
inland, patchy dense valley fog will lift around sunrise.

Looks like a wet day coming up for much of sne, especially in ri and
e ma this afternoon and evening as closed low moves up the east
coast and reaches CAPE cod this evening. Challenge for this forecast
is where we see bands of heavier rain set up from deformation zone,
which is always difficult when dealing with these types of systems.

Global models bring higher QPF to interior sne while high-res models
have it focused more across ri and eastern ma and show potential for
2+ inches of rain in a few locations.

While those higher rainfall totals can't be ruled out, it seems more
likely that QPF will average 0.50 to 1.00" across most of area given
pwats just over 1" and modest moisture convergence, with much of
that falling during afternoon and evening. Pattern recognition would
favor MAX qpf axis closer to what high-res models indicate,
especially when considering enhancement from low level NE flow.

Kept mention of thunder in forecast given presence of elevated
instability and cold pool aloft.

Highs today will range from 50s in eastern ma with onshore flow, to
as warm as mid to upper 60s near ct valley and berkshires.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Tuesday
Expect few showers to linger early tonight as system is slow to exit
region. Plenty of low level moisture means clouds will linger as
well along with patchy fog, and any clearing will be slow to occur
Tuesday as upper flow doesn't become anticyclonic until Tuesday
afternoon. Continued N NE flow should keep cloudiness at least
across eastern ma much of day.

Should remain on cool side for late april with lows tonight in 40s.

Good recovery inland Tuesday as highs top out near 70 with afternoon
sunshine while coastal areas should stay locked in 50s.

Long term Tuesday night through Sunday
Highlights...

* scattered showers Tuesday night with a few thunderstorm possible
* breezy Wednesday
* rain returns Friday Friday night
* generally seasonable temps with a wide variety in readings from
the coast to the interior possible at times given onshore flow
Tuesday night...

chance of rain returns overnight Tuesday as a mid level shortwave
and surface low slide east over northern new england. Ahead of the
cold front winds come out of the S SW and better moisture streams
over the region (pwats rebound to ~1.25"). Showers move through west
to east ahead of the cold front overnight with the potential for
a few embedded elevated thunderstorms as well.

Wednesday and Thursday...

the cold front moves through during the day Wednesday, ushering in a
cooler and much drier post frontal airmass. Models have been slowing
the timing of the cold front a bit over the past 24 hours. Given the
slower timing it's looking more likely that showers will linger
through Wednesday morning, especially for eastern new england.

Behind the front a drier airmass and building high pressure ridge
bring clearing skies and dry weather late Wednesday through Thursday
night. Behind the front winds turn out of the NW and become gusty as
low level lapse rates steepen in caa. Currently looking at wind
gusts of 15-20kts Wednesday afternoon, 20-25 in higher elevations.

Temperatures generally seasonable, in the 60s; potential for locally
cooler sea breeze influenced temps along the coast. Clouds increase
Thursday night ahead of the next system.

Friday and Friday night...

we'll likely end the week with another wet system moving through
bringing light to moderate rain showers during the day and into the
overnight hours. While confidence is fairly high that we'll see wet
weather move through, confidence in timing and magnitude of rainfall
is low; still significant disagreement in synoptic models on the
amplitude of the trough and strength of the surface low late week.

Saturday and Sunday...

active pattern continues next weekend in progressive flow. Drying
out under brief ridging Saturday followed by another shortwave and
rain chances around Sunday Monday.

Aviation 12z Monday through Friday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Tuesday ... Moderate confidence.

Only a few ifr lifr spots left over the south coast with
vfr MVFR farther west. Showers moving into sne during morning
and afternoon from SE to NW will lower conditions to MVFR and
ifr, which persists through tonight. Gradual improvement to MVFR
and eventuallyVFR Tuesday afternoon.

Kbos terminal... Moderate confidence in taf.

Kbdl terminal... Moderate confidence in taf.

Outlook Tuesday night through Friday ...

Tuesday night: mainlyVFR, with local ifr possible. Breezy.

Chance shra, isolated tsra.

Wednesday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Slight
chance shra.

Wednesday night:VFR. Breezy.

Thursday:VFR.

Thursday night:VFR. Chance shra.

Friday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Shra
likely.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Tuesday ... High confidence.

Sca continues for outer waters for 5-7 ft seas through tonight and
increasing NE winds this afternoon. Also adding boston harbor and
adjacent NE ma waters for period of 25kt winds this afternoon and
evening.

Areas of fog early this morning with visibility less than 1 mile
will give way to showers and isolated thunderstorms during
afternoon and evening. Expect patchy fog tonight into Tuesday
morning with 1-3 mile visibility, before conditions improve
Tuesday afternoon.

Outlook Tuesday night through Friday ...

Tuesday night: winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance
of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms.

Wednesday: low risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts
up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Wednesday night: winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Thursday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft.

Thursday night: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Friday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Rain showers likely.

Hydrology
Minor flooding continues along the lower reaches of the
connecticut river where flood warnings remain posted.

Rainfall today and early tonight should be heaviest in rhode
island and eastern massachusetts, where some totals could reach
1.00". Latest nerfc forecasts shows rises on rivers in these
locations, and some points along mainstem merrimack river could
reach action stage, but no additional flooding is currently
forecast.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 1 am edt Tuesday for anz233.

Small craft advisory from 2 pm this afternoon to 2 am edt
Tuesday for anz230.

Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Tuesday for anz235-237-250-
254>256.

Small craft advisory from 2 pm this afternoon to 6 am edt
Tuesday for anz251.

Synopsis... Bw jwd
near term... Bw jwd
short term... Jwd
long term... Bw
aviation... Bw jwd
marine... Bw jwd
hydrology...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44090 21 mi36 min 45°F
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 26 mi36 min NE 7.8 G 9.7 52°F 49°F1017.3 hPa (-0.8)50°F
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 32 mi46 min N 12 G 14 44°F 4 ft1018.6 hPa (-0.4)44°F
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 34 mi111 min NNW 1.9 56°F 1018 hPa49°F
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 35 mi42 min NE 8.9 G 14 51°F 53°F1017 hPa
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 42 mi42 min 56°F 49°F1017.2 hPa

Wind History for Nantucket Island, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chatham, Chatham Municipal Airport, MA6 mi44 minNE 80.25 miFog52°F51°F97%1018 hPa
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA19 mi40 minNNE 92.00 miFog/Mist54°F50°F87%1017.1 hPa
Provincetown Municipal Airport, MA22 mi40 minNNE 98.00 miLight Rain47°F46°F100%1018.7 hPa

Wind History from CQX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr36SW6
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4SW6Calm66SW6S3S4SW5S3CalmCalmCalmNE3NE3NE3NE4N5NE8NE7NE8
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Tide / Current Tables for Nauset Harbor, Cape Cod, Massachusetts
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Nauset Harbor
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:23 AM EDT     7.17 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:49 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:07 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 09:02 AM EDT     -0.80 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:57 PM EDT     6.41 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:16 PM EDT     -0.00 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:09 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.46.27.176.14.73.11.3-0.2-0.8-0.312.74.666.4653.72.20.800.31.4

Tide / Current Tables for Pollock Rip Channel, Massachusetts Current
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Pollock Rip Channel
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:03 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 02:49 AM EDT     -1.97 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:49 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 05:57 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 08:08 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 09:25 AM EDT     2.27 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 12:34 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:18 PM EDT     -1.87 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 06:27 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:48 PM EDT     1.99 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 11:09 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.1-1.1-1.8-2-1.7-0.90.11.11.92.22.21.70.7-0.5-1.4-1.9-1.8-1.3-0.50.51.41.921.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.