Monday, December10, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Orleans, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:56AMSunset 4:12PM Monday December 10, 2018 4:34 AM EST (09:34 UTC) Moonrise 10:33AMMoonset 8:13PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ254 Coastal Waters From Provincetown Ma To Chatham Ma To Nantucket Ma Out 20 Nm- 338 Am Est Mon Dec 10 2018
Today..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Isolated showers this afternoon.
Tonight..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas around 4 ft.
Tue..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 4 ft.
Tue night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 4 ft.
Wed..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft. A chance of snow showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..N winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 7 ft. A chance of snow showers in the evening. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas around 5 ft.
Thu night..S winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 4 ft.
Fri..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 4 ft.
Fri night..S winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A chance of showers after midnight. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 338 Am Est Mon Dec 10 2018
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. A strengthening coastal low off the mid atlc coast will track well southeast of nantucket today, while high pres across quebec builds into northern new england. Light ocean effect showers and flurries are possible around midday into this afternoon across the waters E of cape cod and nantucket. Ocean effect snow bands will develop across the eastern massachusetts waters Tue night and Wed. High pres will cross the waters Thu before shifting E on Fri. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Orleans, MA
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location: 41.77, -69.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 100834
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
334 am est Mon dec 10 2018

Synopsis
Another cold stretch of weather much of this week as
temperatures continue to average colder than normal through thu
with the coldest air Wed and thu. Mainly dry weather prevails as
well with the exception being potential scattered snow showers
or flurries late Tue night into Wed followed by ocean effect
snow showers Wed afternoon and night across the outer cape.

Temperatures moderate Friday ahead of an approaching cold front
that may result in rain Friday night into Saturday.

Near term until 6 am this morning
1245 am update...

noting the veil of high clouds on the latest goes-east
nighttime microphysics composite imagery has been shifting se
and thinning since around 04z or so, though some bands remain
across central and northern areas. Also can see lower clouds
working into NW mass through the thin clouds, which have also
been slowly but steadily SE over the last few hours.

Temps at 05z have continued to fall even with the high thin
clouds across the region, with readings running from the upper
teens across the central and N ct valley to the lower-mid 30s
along the immediate coast, CAPE cod and the islands. Light
variable or calm winds continue as weak high pressure crosses
the region.

Most of the clouds will push offshore through the remainder of
the overnight hours, though may linger across portions of cape
cod and the islands through sunrise. Have held on to the low
temps in the teens across most areas, except around 20-25 along
the immediate coast. Will monitor to see if the high clouds slow
the temp drop.

Previous discussion...

a weak cold front will cross the region overnight... But it will
remain dry given the lack of forcing moisture.

Short term 6 am this morning through 6 pm Tuesday
Monday...

high pressure across quebec will result in mostly sunny skies,
but northerly surface winds will keep it quite chilly. High
temperatures should be held in the middle to upper 30s.

The exception to the mostly sunny skies should be across
portions of the CAPE nantucket... Where northerly winds will
result in ocean effect cloudiness. Delta t values from the top
of the mixed layer to the ocean will be on the order of 13c.

This modest instability will probably result in some snow
flurries across the region... But appears to be some dry air in
the lowest few thousand feet which will should prevent much
more than that.

Monday night...

mainly clear and cold Monday night with a ridge of high
pressure in control. The exception will be some ocean effect
clouds across the CAPE nantucket and perhaps some lingering
evening snow flurries. Otherwise... Light winds mainly clear
skies should allow low temps to bottom out well down into the
teens in many locations by daybreak tue.

Long term Tuesday night through Sunday
335 am update...

highlights...

* noticeably colder Wed & Thu and blustery Wed afternoon evening
* ocean effect snow showers outer CAPE cod Wed afternoon & night
* milder Fri Sat Sun with threat of rain Fri night sat
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning...

offshore low tracking well southeast of the 40n 70w benchmark tue
evening, however an upstream strong northern stream short wave exits
the great lakes and ontario, tracking east into new england. This
high amplitude short wave induces an inverted trough from the
offshore cyclone westward into new england, indicative of strong
forcing for ascent. However limiting factor is short duration of
attending mid level moisture. Inspection of time sections from both
nam and GFS bufkit reveal column struggles to saturate including the
dgz (-10c to -20c). This should limit precip to widely scattered
snow showers or just flurries. Chilly day with 850 temps around -12c
with model soundings showing mixing almost to this layer.

Wednesday evening and overnight...

strong CAA behind departing northern stream short wave. 850 mb temps
lower to -12c to -14c and 925 mb temps -10c to -12c across the
region. So highs only 30-35 Wed aftn expected but will feel
considerably colder with gusty north winds 15-25 mph providing wind
chills in the 20s. These gusty north winds advecting a cold airmass
over the relatively warm ocean waters will generate ocean effect
snows (oes) from about hyannis eastward. Given ssts near shore
still relatively warm around +6c to +7c, this will support steep low
level lapse rates with delta-t on the order of approaching 20 degs.

This typically is the instability threshold for the beginning of
accumulating ocean effect snows. NAM bufkit at chh has ocean induced
capes up to 700 j kg with normalized CAPE greater than 0.20 inches.

This should be sufficient for minor snow accumulations, say a
coating to perhaps up to 2 inches in a few locations. Winds drop off
after midnight so should see some improvement then. Cold night as
1034 mb high crest over the region. Thus ideal radiational cooling
and will follow the coldest guidance accordingly.

Thursday...

not as windy as Wed as 1034 mb high crest over the region. Therefore
light winds. However subsidence inversion will preclude cold morning
temps from modifying much. Thus a chilly thu. Dry weather prevails.

Friday, Saturday and Sunday...

milder temps Fri as northern stream jet lifts northward and high
pres moves offshore, promoting onshore flow into southern new
england. Seasonably warm with highs in the 40s fri. Thereafter
forecast becomes highly uncertain from Fri night into Sunday.

Ensembles and deterministic guidance have all trended away from
streams merging with now an unphased scenario this period along with
southern stream being more dominant. However individual members from
both the 00z GEFS and eps really exhibit large spread with many
members dry this weekend while other members are very wet. Thus
highly uncertain weekend forecast.

Aviation 09z Monday through Friday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Tuesday ... High confidence.

Through 12z...

vfr conditions. High clouds continue to thin as they shift se
through 12z. Bkn-ovc clouds at 2500-3000 may reach into W mass
terminals after 07z-08z, which may linger across the berkshires
through daybreak. May see local MVFR CIGS on outer CAPE cod at
times.

Monday and Monday night...

vfr except for some marginal MVFR CIGS possible at times at the
khya kack terminals as a result of ocean effect clouds and
perhaps a few snow flurries. Northerly wind gusts in the lower
20 knots across the CAPE ack on Monday should diminish Monday
evening.

Kbos terminal... High confidence in taf.

Kbdl terminal... High confidence in taf.

Outlook Tuesday night through Friday ...

Tuesday night:VFR.

Wednesday through Wednesday night:VFR. Breezy. MVFR in snow
showers likely across the outer cape.

Thursday:VFR.

Thursday night: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible.

Friday:VFR. Breezy.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Tuesday ... High confidence.

Overnight...

enough of a SW gradient will result in a few wind gusts to 25
kt across the northern waters. Expect winds seas to remain
below small craft thresholds across the rest of the waters.

However, may see some northerly lower 20 knot wind gusts
develop toward daybreak behind a cold front.

Monday...

northerly wind gusts of 20-25 kt expected across the open
waters with good mixing in the cold air advection pattern.

Opted to issue small craft headlines for our outer waters.

Later shifts may have to expand them into some additional
waters... But since it is marginal opting to let the next shift
take look.

Monday night...

wind gusts should diminish Monday evening as a ridge of high
pressure approaches from the west.

Outlook Tuesday night through Friday ...

Tuesday night: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Wednesday: low risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts
up to 25 kt. Low risk of gale force northerly winds. Seas up to
5 ft. Chance of snow showers. Visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Wednesday night: winds less than 25 kt. Low risk of gale force
northerly winds during the evening, then diminishing after
midnight. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of snow showers.

Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Thursday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft.

Thursday night: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Local
visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Friday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Nocera
near term... Frank evt bw
short term... Frank
long term... Nocera
aviation... Frank nocera evt
marine... Frank nocera evt


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44090 21 mi34 min 44°F2 ft
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 26 mi24 min NNW 18 G 21 33°F 41°F22°F
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 32 mi44 min NNW 16 G 19 35°F 3 ft1017 hPa (-1.4)22°F
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 34 mi49 min 4.1 28°F 1018 hPa17°F
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 35 mi40 min N 8 G 13 33°F 37°F1017.1 hPa
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 42 mi40 min 31°F 40°F1017.4 hPa

Wind History for Nantucket Island, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chatham, Chatham Municipal Airport, MA6 mi42 minN 010.00 miFair30°F21°F69%1017.7 hPa
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA19 mi38 minW 410.00 miFair28°F19°F72%1017.1 hPa
Provincetown Municipal Airport, MA22 mi38 minNNW 14 G 1910.00 miFair34°F23°F64%1017.4 hPa

Wind History from CQX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmW4W33W5W755SW666SW4SW8
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NW5CalmW4W4W44N3Calm
1 day agoNW5NW63NW76NW7
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5W3NW8NW7NW844CalmW3W33W33
2 days ago--W654W8W9
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66NW8NW43NW4NW3W33NW666NW7NW5NW964

Tide / Current Tables for Nauset Harbor, Cape Cod, Massachusetts (2)
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Nauset Harbor
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Mon -- 01:26 AM EST     5.83 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:56 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:45 AM EST     0.63 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:32 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:29 PM EST     6.48 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:08 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:13 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 08:19 PM EST     0.01 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.95.85.75.14.231.80.90.71.42.64.15.56.46.45.84.73.420.70.10.21.22.4

Tide / Current Tables for Pollock Rip Channel, Massachusetts Current
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Pollock Rip Channel
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Mon -- 01:58 AM EST     -1.64 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:04 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:55 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:26 AM EST     1.77 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 09:31 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:20 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 02:04 PM EST     -1.73 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 04:09 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:13 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:14 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 08:48 PM EST     2.10 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 11:58 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.8-1.4-1.6-1.5-0.9-0.10.81.41.71.71.30.4-0.7-1.5-1.7-1.6-1-0.20.71.522.11.81

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.