Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Orleans, MA
May 15, 2024 4:18 PM EDT (20:18 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:18 AM Sunset 7:55 PM Moonrise 12:09 PM Moonset 1:57 AM |
ANZ254 Coastal Waters From Provincetown Ma To Chatham Ma To Nantucket Ma Out 20 Nm- 403 Pm Edt Wed May 15 2024
.small craft advisory in effect from 2 am edt Thursday through Thursday evening - .
Tonight - SE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming E 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft, building to 3 to 5 ft after midnight. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 4 seconds and E 2 ft at 8 seconds, becoming E 4 ft at 8 seconds and S 3 ft at 10 seconds. Patchy fog. Rain likely. Vsby 1 nm or less, increasing to 1 to 3 nm after midnight.
Thu - E winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Wave detail: E 5 ft at 6 seconds and S 5 ft at 10 seconds. Patchy fog. A chance of rain in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu night - NE winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Wave detail: E 6 ft at 9 seconds and S 3 ft at 9 seconds.
Fri - NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Wave detail: se 5 ft at 8 seconds and S 2 ft at 8 seconds.
Fri night through Sat night - E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Wave detail: se 5 ft at 8 seconds and S 2 ft at 8 seconds.
Sun through Mon night - E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Wave detail: E 5 ft at 9 seconds and S 1 foot at 7 seconds.
seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 403 Pm Edt Wed May 15 2024
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters - A low pressures system will move from the mid-atlantic coast towards southern new england overnight with gusty easterly winds and occasional gale force gusts across the southern outer waters. In addition, coastal storm will bring periods of heavy rainfall which will reduce visibilities overnight into Thursday morning.
the low pressure system will shift east and away from southern new england Friday into Saturday. High pressure is expected late this weekend.
the low pressure system will shift east and away from southern new england Friday into Saturday. High pressure is expected late this weekend.
FXUS61 KBOX 151821 AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 221 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024
SYNOPSIS
Scattered showers today before more widespread showers develop as low pressure moves south of SNE tonight. Drying trend on Thursday. Weather pattern for late in the week into the weekend is a cloudy and unsettled one with onshore breezes forcing cooler temperatures near the coastlines. While we can't rule out a few showers from time to time, drier weather generally prevails late this week into the weekend. Trending drier with a potential warm-up into early to mid next week.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
1130 AM Update...
No major changes in the immediate near term in the latest update. However, did increase our precip changes and QPF amounts late tonight into early Thu. A bit concerning with a roughly stationary front nearby, PWATs around 1-1.25 inches and some instability in place. The 925 hPa jet is anomalous and guidance has trended an area of convection further north and east compared to previous runs. This could result in heavy rainfall falling over roughly at 12 hour period late tonight into early Thu across CT, RI and perhaps into SE MA. The latest GEFS/GEPS show low/mod probs (10-40 percent) of 24 hr QPF of 1+ inches, whereas the EPS indicating mod/high probs (50-80+ percent of 24 hr QPF of 1+ inches and even some low 2+ inch probs. Something we will need to closely monitor as some convective guidance, NAM, HRRR and NCAR ensembles showing the possibility of heavy rain across the area aforementioned. Will hopefully have a clearer picture for this afternoons package.
705 AM Update:
Updated PoPs/Wx to match current radar/observations and expected near-term trends with this update. While these rains are not expected to be significant or notable, forecast confidence in the timing of an anticipated second round of rain is pretty low.
At least variable amounts of mid-level cloud cover early this morning across all of Southern New England, but cloud bases lower and thicken with westward extent associated with a band of light rains across the Berkshires and into western/southwestern CT.
Latest guidance indicates two general periods of rain today. The first is the ongoing area of light rains over interior western New England, which could expand a bit further east into central MA and eastern CT but expecting much of if not all of eastern MA and RI to be dry through much of today. This lead area of rains seems to be being driven by moisture advection in light SE flow, is not amounting to much in terms of QPF and is not expected to yield much. This lifts northwestward during the morning to early afternoon period, with a potential brief break for the afternoon. The bigger uncertainty then comes with an anticipated second round of rains associated with low pressure near the Chesapeake Bay area. Most solutions show this rain reaching our southern coastline but varies as far as when, with some guidance including past few HRRR cycles indicating an arrival by late afternoon (4-6 pm timeframe) while better consensus in rain arriving later tonight. That will need to be better pinned down but I show another round of PoPs increasing during the later afternoon period along the south coast. Though I couldn't rule out a rumble of thunder given meager instability, rain showers to predominate. All in all, a better day further east one goes, but still will be a generally cloudy day.
Previous discussion:
Light returns on radar have been very slow to translate into observed precipitation overnight as shower activity advances northward from Long Island/NYC into the Hudson River Valley/Central CT given dry air from the sfc to ~800mb. Scattered showers are expected to fill in across Connecticut and southwestern MA this morning, but lingering dry air associated with weak persistent ridging (that brought highs into the 80s for some yesterday!) should be enough to stave off significant shower activity for the eastern half of the CWA CAMs, and model soundings, do introduce a bit of uncertainty, particularly prior to 18Z this afternoon, regarding how far east shower activity can advance but all in all not expecting a washout of a day for any particular location. Will note that there is just a tiny bit of instability, about 150J/kg CAPE, that could translate into an isolated rumble or thunder or two. Should see a dry period develop later this afternoon ahead of increasing precip chances tonight.
Temperatures aloft remain mild but do cool through the day, with 850mb temps falling from ~10C to ~7C this afternoon. Given significant cloud cover, its unlikely we mix much above 925mb, where temps hover around 12C, so highs will top out in the mid 60s to low 70s, warmest across eastern MA where showers are delayed the longest.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/
Low pressure moves northward from the mid-Atlantic coast to just south of southern New England overnight which will pivot a more robust precipitation shield towards the region after 03/04Z tonight.
As mentioned by the previous forecaster, the lack of baroclinicity this time of year introduces significant uncertainty regarding how far northward more stratiform precipitation can extend with low pressure centered south of the benchmark, but overnight guidance has trended, just slightly, towards a more northern and "wetter" solution, wetter in quotations as less than a half inch of rain is expected for far southern New England through the period.
Widespread shower activity will linger through at least the first half of Thursday before low pressure pulls seaward, which will allow PoPs to diminish through the afternoon. Concurrent with lessening shower chances, may see a few breaks of sunshine develop across the far interior by sunset.
With surface flow shifting to the E/ENE, onshore flow will impact highs, with mid to perhaps upper 60s expected across the interior and low 60s along the immediate eastern coastline. It will be a breezy day, with a 925mb jet of 35kt draped south of I-90, translating to gusts between 20-25kt along the south shore.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
Highlights:
* Unsettled late-week into the weekend, with onshore flow favoring generally dry weather but with considerable cloudiness on most days. Better, although limited, chance for rain is around late Sunday but no significant rains or washouts are expected.
* Possible pattern change toward even milder weather around midweek?
Details:
00z suite of global ensembles still depict a generally unsettled weather pattern in this period, with two closed-off upper level lows moving through the mid-Atlc states, thus progged to be suppressed to our south. One of these features sags ESE Thursday night into Friday south of our waters, with another anticipated to pass to our south around Sunday night or into Monday. Related moisture tied to these disturbances will keep a generous amt of cloud cover around on most days; while we can't rule out a spot shower or two, the southward/suppressed tendency of these disturbances depicted in most of the ensembles should favor drier weather more often than not.
Onshore flow being produced by a surface ridge of high pressure nosing in from Nova Scotia would tend to favor cooler temps near the coast and several degrees warmer inland for late in the week through the weekend. There is more uncertainty in the pattern as we move into early to mid next week, with some solutions offering a warmup and less cloud cover, while the Canadian GEM indicating a continuation of unsettled conditions.
Thursday Night through Friday:
Coastal low pressure which is expected to bring showers to areas largely south of the Mass Pike on Thurs will continue to shift southward Thurs night into early Fri, with surface ridge of high pressure over Nova Scotia gradually taking hold. We should see decreasing rain chances into the evening and overnight hrs, with Fri trending drier but still with partly to mostly cloudy conditions and onshore breezes, with greater cloud cover south and east. Rain amts on Thurs night are light though. For temperatures, highs could struggle to reach the lower 60s near the coasts on Fri with the cooler onshore flow, but seem likely to reach into the lower to mid 70s further inland. Above-normal lows in the low to mid 50s for Thurs and Fri nights.
The Weekend into Monday:
Saturday is still looking cloudy but generally dry under continued surface ridge of high pressure, with cooler onshore breezes and similar high temps to those from Fri.
Next upper level low pressure tries to move in around later Sunday or into Mon. The Canadian GEM is the most bullish in bringing steady rains in, while the GFS keeps any rains to far southwestern areas, and the ECMWF is the driest and would favor dry weather for all of SNE. So still uncertainty in the specifics to work through; I opted to keep a slight to low chance mention of showers in the forecast for now. PoPs will need adjusting once there is better cross-model agreement. Kept highs in the 60s in all areas both days, again coolest near the coast.
As of now, Saturday looks to be the pick of the weekend but it still will feature a good amt of cloud cover.
Tuesday and Wednesday:
While the Canadian solution in this period maintains continued cloudy conditions with periodic showers, indications in the ECMWF and GFS solutions depict a potential warmup toward early-summerlike temps and less cloud cover. For now maintained NBM for this portion of the forecast given the disparity in outcomes, though with a little lean toward the GFS/ECMWF drier/warmer idea.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through 00Z...Moderate confidence.
Borderline VFR/MVFR across central/eastern MA with scattered rain showers. MVFR across elsewhere with rain showers. More steady rains pushing northward already into the south coast and will continue to do so as we head into the evening. Showers have had strong enough outflow to kick out the sea breeze, so anticipate S/SE winds at 5-10 kts. If a stronger shower slides through then could see some isolated gusts of 15-25 kts given the well mixed boundary layer.
Tonight...Moderate confidence.
Conditions deteriorate to MVFR/IFR and perhaps even some localized LIFR possible after 06Z as steadier rains push in.
Could see some embedded thunder as we head into the AM push for portions of the south coast, but given the limited instability the risk was too low to include in the latest update. Heavier rains possible across CT, RI and perhaps into SE MA. Winds shift to the E and increase to around 10-15 kts. Will have some 20-25 kt gusts along the immediate south coast late.
Thursday...Moderate confidence.
Expecting to start the day with MVFR to IFR conditions and perhaps some localized LIFR with a steady rain. Should see this precip shield gradually collapsing as the day progresses, but still could have some spotty showers linger into the afternoon.
Ceilings will gradually improve to MVFR/VFR by the afternoon from north to south, but it will be a slow process given the prolonged onshore E to ENE winds. Will have speeds of 10-15 kts with gusts of 20-25 kts and the highest speeds along the immediate south coast.
Thursday Night...Moderate confidence.
Should see conditions improve to VFR for most. Any lingering showers across the south coast should push offshore before midnight. Given the prolonged onshore flow there is potential that eastern MA could see some MVFR/IFR stratus/fog. For now have kept in VFR range, but something we will need to hone in on as we get closer as it would likely impact the Fri AM push.
Winds ENE to NE at 5-10 kts.
KBOS TAF...Moderate confidence in TAF.
VFR this afternoon with hit/miss showers becoming a more steady rain this evening. Any of these showers could briefly bring moderate rain and visibilities down to 2-3 SM. Conditions lowering to MVFR/IFR tonight as steadier rains move in and will impact the Thu AM push. Winds shift to the E/ENE tonight. Winds remaining out of the ENE on Thu with rain showers gradually tapering off and ceilings slowly improving to MVFR/VFR.
KBDL TAF...Moderate confidence in TAF.
MVFR through the forecast with steadier rains pushing in this evening. Will have ceilings gradually lowering to IFR tonight and winds shift from the SE to the E/ENE. Winds becoming gusty Thu morning through the afternoon, but showers gradually tapering off and slowly improving from IFR to MVFR/VFR.
Outlook /Friday through Sunday/...
Friday: VFR. Breezy.
Friday Night: VFR.
Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
MARINE
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
3 AM Update...
Wednesday...
Weak high pressure offshore results in light S-SE winds. Mainly dry weather and any morning fog burns off by midday with good vsby thereafter. Scattered showers across the southern waters.
Wednesday night...
Low pressure south of New England drifts north, with increasing east winds 15-20 kt toward Thu morning. Vsby lowers to 1-3 miles in areas of fog and rain, especially southern MA and RI waters.
Thursday...
E/ENE winds increase as low pressure tracks closer to SNE, gusts to 30kt possible. Areas of rough seas with increased rain chances.
Outlook /Thursday Night
Thursday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms, patchy fog. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.
Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.
Slight chance of rain showers.
Friday through Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.
Saturday Night through Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 8 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ232.
Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 11 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ235-237-254.
Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ255-256.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 221 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024
SYNOPSIS
Scattered showers today before more widespread showers develop as low pressure moves south of SNE tonight. Drying trend on Thursday. Weather pattern for late in the week into the weekend is a cloudy and unsettled one with onshore breezes forcing cooler temperatures near the coastlines. While we can't rule out a few showers from time to time, drier weather generally prevails late this week into the weekend. Trending drier with a potential warm-up into early to mid next week.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
1130 AM Update...
No major changes in the immediate near term in the latest update. However, did increase our precip changes and QPF amounts late tonight into early Thu. A bit concerning with a roughly stationary front nearby, PWATs around 1-1.25 inches and some instability in place. The 925 hPa jet is anomalous and guidance has trended an area of convection further north and east compared to previous runs. This could result in heavy rainfall falling over roughly at 12 hour period late tonight into early Thu across CT, RI and perhaps into SE MA. The latest GEFS/GEPS show low/mod probs (10-40 percent) of 24 hr QPF of 1+ inches, whereas the EPS indicating mod/high probs (50-80+ percent of 24 hr QPF of 1+ inches and even some low 2+ inch probs. Something we will need to closely monitor as some convective guidance, NAM, HRRR and NCAR ensembles showing the possibility of heavy rain across the area aforementioned. Will hopefully have a clearer picture for this afternoons package.
705 AM Update:
Updated PoPs/Wx to match current radar/observations and expected near-term trends with this update. While these rains are not expected to be significant or notable, forecast confidence in the timing of an anticipated second round of rain is pretty low.
At least variable amounts of mid-level cloud cover early this morning across all of Southern New England, but cloud bases lower and thicken with westward extent associated with a band of light rains across the Berkshires and into western/southwestern CT.
Latest guidance indicates two general periods of rain today. The first is the ongoing area of light rains over interior western New England, which could expand a bit further east into central MA and eastern CT but expecting much of if not all of eastern MA and RI to be dry through much of today. This lead area of rains seems to be being driven by moisture advection in light SE flow, is not amounting to much in terms of QPF and is not expected to yield much. This lifts northwestward during the morning to early afternoon period, with a potential brief break for the afternoon. The bigger uncertainty then comes with an anticipated second round of rains associated with low pressure near the Chesapeake Bay area. Most solutions show this rain reaching our southern coastline but varies as far as when, with some guidance including past few HRRR cycles indicating an arrival by late afternoon (4-6 pm timeframe) while better consensus in rain arriving later tonight. That will need to be better pinned down but I show another round of PoPs increasing during the later afternoon period along the south coast. Though I couldn't rule out a rumble of thunder given meager instability, rain showers to predominate. All in all, a better day further east one goes, but still will be a generally cloudy day.
Previous discussion:
Light returns on radar have been very slow to translate into observed precipitation overnight as shower activity advances northward from Long Island/NYC into the Hudson River Valley/Central CT given dry air from the sfc to ~800mb. Scattered showers are expected to fill in across Connecticut and southwestern MA this morning, but lingering dry air associated with weak persistent ridging (that brought highs into the 80s for some yesterday!) should be enough to stave off significant shower activity for the eastern half of the CWA CAMs, and model soundings, do introduce a bit of uncertainty, particularly prior to 18Z this afternoon, regarding how far east shower activity can advance but all in all not expecting a washout of a day for any particular location. Will note that there is just a tiny bit of instability, about 150J/kg CAPE, that could translate into an isolated rumble or thunder or two. Should see a dry period develop later this afternoon ahead of increasing precip chances tonight.
Temperatures aloft remain mild but do cool through the day, with 850mb temps falling from ~10C to ~7C this afternoon. Given significant cloud cover, its unlikely we mix much above 925mb, where temps hover around 12C, so highs will top out in the mid 60s to low 70s, warmest across eastern MA where showers are delayed the longest.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/
Low pressure moves northward from the mid-Atlantic coast to just south of southern New England overnight which will pivot a more robust precipitation shield towards the region after 03/04Z tonight.
As mentioned by the previous forecaster, the lack of baroclinicity this time of year introduces significant uncertainty regarding how far northward more stratiform precipitation can extend with low pressure centered south of the benchmark, but overnight guidance has trended, just slightly, towards a more northern and "wetter" solution, wetter in quotations as less than a half inch of rain is expected for far southern New England through the period.
Widespread shower activity will linger through at least the first half of Thursday before low pressure pulls seaward, which will allow PoPs to diminish through the afternoon. Concurrent with lessening shower chances, may see a few breaks of sunshine develop across the far interior by sunset.
With surface flow shifting to the E/ENE, onshore flow will impact highs, with mid to perhaps upper 60s expected across the interior and low 60s along the immediate eastern coastline. It will be a breezy day, with a 925mb jet of 35kt draped south of I-90, translating to gusts between 20-25kt along the south shore.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
Highlights:
* Unsettled late-week into the weekend, with onshore flow favoring generally dry weather but with considerable cloudiness on most days. Better, although limited, chance for rain is around late Sunday but no significant rains or washouts are expected.
* Possible pattern change toward even milder weather around midweek?
Details:
00z suite of global ensembles still depict a generally unsettled weather pattern in this period, with two closed-off upper level lows moving through the mid-Atlc states, thus progged to be suppressed to our south. One of these features sags ESE Thursday night into Friday south of our waters, with another anticipated to pass to our south around Sunday night or into Monday. Related moisture tied to these disturbances will keep a generous amt of cloud cover around on most days; while we can't rule out a spot shower or two, the southward/suppressed tendency of these disturbances depicted in most of the ensembles should favor drier weather more often than not.
Onshore flow being produced by a surface ridge of high pressure nosing in from Nova Scotia would tend to favor cooler temps near the coast and several degrees warmer inland for late in the week through the weekend. There is more uncertainty in the pattern as we move into early to mid next week, with some solutions offering a warmup and less cloud cover, while the Canadian GEM indicating a continuation of unsettled conditions.
Thursday Night through Friday:
Coastal low pressure which is expected to bring showers to areas largely south of the Mass Pike on Thurs will continue to shift southward Thurs night into early Fri, with surface ridge of high pressure over Nova Scotia gradually taking hold. We should see decreasing rain chances into the evening and overnight hrs, with Fri trending drier but still with partly to mostly cloudy conditions and onshore breezes, with greater cloud cover south and east. Rain amts on Thurs night are light though. For temperatures, highs could struggle to reach the lower 60s near the coasts on Fri with the cooler onshore flow, but seem likely to reach into the lower to mid 70s further inland. Above-normal lows in the low to mid 50s for Thurs and Fri nights.
The Weekend into Monday:
Saturday is still looking cloudy but generally dry under continued surface ridge of high pressure, with cooler onshore breezes and similar high temps to those from Fri.
Next upper level low pressure tries to move in around later Sunday or into Mon. The Canadian GEM is the most bullish in bringing steady rains in, while the GFS keeps any rains to far southwestern areas, and the ECMWF is the driest and would favor dry weather for all of SNE. So still uncertainty in the specifics to work through; I opted to keep a slight to low chance mention of showers in the forecast for now. PoPs will need adjusting once there is better cross-model agreement. Kept highs in the 60s in all areas both days, again coolest near the coast.
As of now, Saturday looks to be the pick of the weekend but it still will feature a good amt of cloud cover.
Tuesday and Wednesday:
While the Canadian solution in this period maintains continued cloudy conditions with periodic showers, indications in the ECMWF and GFS solutions depict a potential warmup toward early-summerlike temps and less cloud cover. For now maintained NBM for this portion of the forecast given the disparity in outcomes, though with a little lean toward the GFS/ECMWF drier/warmer idea.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through 00Z...Moderate confidence.
Borderline VFR/MVFR across central/eastern MA with scattered rain showers. MVFR across elsewhere with rain showers. More steady rains pushing northward already into the south coast and will continue to do so as we head into the evening. Showers have had strong enough outflow to kick out the sea breeze, so anticipate S/SE winds at 5-10 kts. If a stronger shower slides through then could see some isolated gusts of 15-25 kts given the well mixed boundary layer.
Tonight...Moderate confidence.
Conditions deteriorate to MVFR/IFR and perhaps even some localized LIFR possible after 06Z as steadier rains push in.
Could see some embedded thunder as we head into the AM push for portions of the south coast, but given the limited instability the risk was too low to include in the latest update. Heavier rains possible across CT, RI and perhaps into SE MA. Winds shift to the E and increase to around 10-15 kts. Will have some 20-25 kt gusts along the immediate south coast late.
Thursday...Moderate confidence.
Expecting to start the day with MVFR to IFR conditions and perhaps some localized LIFR with a steady rain. Should see this precip shield gradually collapsing as the day progresses, but still could have some spotty showers linger into the afternoon.
Ceilings will gradually improve to MVFR/VFR by the afternoon from north to south, but it will be a slow process given the prolonged onshore E to ENE winds. Will have speeds of 10-15 kts with gusts of 20-25 kts and the highest speeds along the immediate south coast.
Thursday Night...Moderate confidence.
Should see conditions improve to VFR for most. Any lingering showers across the south coast should push offshore before midnight. Given the prolonged onshore flow there is potential that eastern MA could see some MVFR/IFR stratus/fog. For now have kept in VFR range, but something we will need to hone in on as we get closer as it would likely impact the Fri AM push.
Winds ENE to NE at 5-10 kts.
KBOS TAF...Moderate confidence in TAF.
VFR this afternoon with hit/miss showers becoming a more steady rain this evening. Any of these showers could briefly bring moderate rain and visibilities down to 2-3 SM. Conditions lowering to MVFR/IFR tonight as steadier rains move in and will impact the Thu AM push. Winds shift to the E/ENE tonight. Winds remaining out of the ENE on Thu with rain showers gradually tapering off and ceilings slowly improving to MVFR/VFR.
KBDL TAF...Moderate confidence in TAF.
MVFR through the forecast with steadier rains pushing in this evening. Will have ceilings gradually lowering to IFR tonight and winds shift from the SE to the E/ENE. Winds becoming gusty Thu morning through the afternoon, but showers gradually tapering off and slowly improving from IFR to MVFR/VFR.
Outlook /Friday through Sunday/...
Friday: VFR. Breezy.
Friday Night: VFR.
Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
MARINE
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
3 AM Update...
Wednesday...
Weak high pressure offshore results in light S-SE winds. Mainly dry weather and any morning fog burns off by midday with good vsby thereafter. Scattered showers across the southern waters.
Wednesday night...
Low pressure south of New England drifts north, with increasing east winds 15-20 kt toward Thu morning. Vsby lowers to 1-3 miles in areas of fog and rain, especially southern MA and RI waters.
Thursday...
E/ENE winds increase as low pressure tracks closer to SNE, gusts to 30kt possible. Areas of rough seas with increased rain chances.
Outlook /Thursday Night
Thursday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms, patchy fog. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.
Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.
Slight chance of rain showers.
Friday through Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.
Saturday Night through Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 8 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ232.
Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 11 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ235-237-254.
Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ255-256.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| CHTM3 | 6 mi | 48 min | 59°F | 59°F | 29.90 | |||
| 44090 | 21 mi | 78 min | 57°F | 54°F | ||||
| 44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND | 26 mi | 38 min | ESE 1.9G | 57°F | 55°F | 29.88 | 55°F | |
| 44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA | 32 mi | 68 min | 51°F | 2 ft | ||||
| NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA | 35 mi | 48 min | SE 6G | 60°F | 58°F | 29.90 | ||
| BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA | 42 mi | 48 min | 58°F | 55°F | 29.89 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KCQX CHATHAM MUNI,MA | 6 sm | 26 min | var 03 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 61°F | 55°F | 82% | 29.90 | |
| KHYA BARNSTABLE MUNIBOARDMAN/POLANDO FIELD,MA | 19 sm | 22 min | S 06 | 10 sm | Overcast | Lt Rain | 59°F | 55°F | 88% | 29.88 |
Nauset Harbor
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:12 AM EDT 1.29 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:56 AM EDT Moonset
Wed -- 05:19 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 06:03 AM EDT 5.82 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:49 AM EDT First Quarter
Wed -- 12:08 PM EDT Moonrise
Wed -- 12:54 PM EDT 0.79 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:50 PM EDT 5.31 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:53 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:12 AM EDT 1.29 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:56 AM EDT Moonset
Wed -- 05:19 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 06:03 AM EDT 5.82 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:49 AM EDT First Quarter
Wed -- 12:08 PM EDT Moonrise
Wed -- 12:54 PM EDT 0.79 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:50 PM EDT 5.31 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:53 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Nauset Harbor, Cape Cod, Massachusetts (2), Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1.3 |
| 1 am |
| 1.5 |
| 2 am |
| 2.3 |
| 3 am |
| 3.3 |
| 4 am |
| 4.4 |
| 5 am |
| 5.4 |
| 6 am |
| 5.8 |
| 7 am |
| 5.6 |
| 8 am |
| 5 |
| 9 am |
| 4.1 |
| 10 am |
| 3 |
| 11 am |
| 1.9 |
| 12 pm |
| 1 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.9 |
| 4 pm |
| 3 |
| 5 pm |
| 4.2 |
| 6 pm |
| 5.1 |
| 7 pm |
| 5.3 |
| 8 pm |
| 5 |
| 9 pm |
| 4.4 |
| 10 pm |
| 3.6 |
| 11 pm |
| 2.7 |
Pollock Rip Channel
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:57 AM EDT 1.48 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 01:56 AM EDT Moonset
Wed -- 03:48 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:20 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 06:34 AM EDT -1.37 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 07:49 AM EDT First Quarter
Wed -- 09:39 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 12:09 PM EDT Moonrise
Wed -- 01:26 PM EDT 1.84 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 04:32 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:22 PM EDT -1.36 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 07:53 PM EDT Sunset
Wed -- 10:29 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:57 AM EDT 1.48 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 01:56 AM EDT Moonset
Wed -- 03:48 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:20 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 06:34 AM EDT -1.37 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 07:49 AM EDT First Quarter
Wed -- 09:39 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 12:09 PM EDT Moonrise
Wed -- 01:26 PM EDT 1.84 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 04:32 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:22 PM EDT -1.36 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 07:53 PM EDT Sunset
Wed -- 10:29 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Pollock Rip Channel, Massachusetts Current, knots
| 12 am |
| 1.3 |
| 1 am |
| 1.5 |
| 2 am |
| 1.3 |
| 3 am |
| 0.7 |
| 4 am |
| -0.2 |
| 5 am |
| -0.9 |
| 6 am |
| -1.3 |
| 7 am |
| -1.3 |
| 8 am |
| -1.1 |
| 9 am |
| -0.5 |
| 10 am |
| 0.3 |
| 11 am |
| 1 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 5 pm |
| -0.4 |
| 6 pm |
| -1.1 |
| 7 pm |
| -1.3 |
| 8 pm |
| -1.3 |
| 9 pm |
| -1 |
| 10 pm |
| -0.3 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.4 |
Boston, MA,
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