Tuesday, October16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Brewster, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:53AMSunset 5:58PM Tuesday October 16, 2018 2:11 PM EDT (18:11 UTC) Moonrise 1:59PMMoonset 11:41PM Illumination 47% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ231 Cape Cod Bay- 116 Pm Edt Tue Oct 16 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until 2 pm edt this afternoon...
This afternoon..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Tonight..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas around 5 ft.
Thu..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas around 5 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 3 ft.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 4 ft. A chance of showers after midnight.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas around 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 116 Pm Edt Tue Oct 16 2018
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. A cold front will cross the waters late Wed into Wed evening followed by another period of gale force wind gusts. A ridge of high pres will then build south of the waters Thu night into Fri. This will be followed the the passage of another cold front sometime late Sat or Sat night. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Brewster, MA
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location: 41.77, -70.08     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 161744
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
144 pm edt Tue oct 16 2018

Synopsis
Today will feature plenty of sunshine but a return to cool
temperatures across southern new england. Another cold front
moves through Wednesday. Behind the front, the coldest air
of this young fall season invades the area Wed night and thu.

However the cold weather is short lived with moderating temps
fri and Sat but a chance of showers ahead of a cold front Saturday.

Colder air returns Sunday and Monday behind the frontal passage.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
930 am update...

winds will continue to diminish through the day while becoming
west. Zonal flow aloft with upper level jet overhead will bring
some high clouds to areas south of the pike, otherwise lots of
sunshine. Column is very dry with pwats less than 0.25". No
changes to temps, mainly mid upper 50s for highs, cooler higher
terrain.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Wednesday
Tonight...

a dry and cool night is in store for the region. Another
shortwave approaching from the west will result in enough
southwest boundary layer flow to keep many areas from completely
decoupling. This should hold overnight low temperatures mainly
in the upper 30s to the lower 40s.

Wednesday...

a vigorous shortwave trough will approach from the great lakes
on Wednesday. While we should see a scattered to broken deck of
cloudiness develop... Enough sunshine and mixing particularly in
the morning should allow for highs to reach between 60 and 65 on
the coastal plain and mid to upper 50s across the interior high
terrain. The shortwave does not have much moisture to tap, but
enough forcing may exist for a few brief spot showers especially
across the interior. Regardless... The vast majority of the day
will be dry but it will be come windy by afternoon. Westerly
wind gust of 25 to 35 mph are expected to develop.

Long term Wednesday night through Monday
Highlights...

* unseasonably cold & blustery Wednesday night and Thursday
* moderating temperatures Friday and Saturday
* return to colder than normal temps Sunday and Monday
* next chance of widespread showers Sat sat night
synoptic overview and model preferences.

Gefs and ecens favor the following teleconnections - negative
epo positive pna which supports a high amplitude eastern
pacific western canada ridge. Likewise anomalous downstream trough
across ontario quebec and into the northeast. However with the nao
remaining positive these northern stream troughs and associated cold
surges will remain progressive. So typical fall pattern with large
temperature fluctuations thru the 7 day period. As for
precipitation, given the pattern remains progressive little
opportunity for cyclogenesis at this latitude with frontal passages
remaining progressive. Thus a few bouts of showers, Wednesday
(widely scattered to isolated) and more widespread showers sat-sat
night.

Wednesday night...

strong cold air advection with 850 mb temps falling to -8c to
-10c by Thu morning! This will drive temps down into the 30s
regionwide and blustery NW winds 15-30 mph yielding wind chills
in the 20s!
Thursday...

anomalous cold airmass over the region with 850 mb temps starting
the day at -8c to 10c and only warming to about -7c by days end.

This will only support highs only in the 40s but gusty NW winds 20-
30 mph will yield wind chills in the 30s! To put this into
perspective, highs in the mid 40s Thu is more typical of early dec.

However avg high for this time of year should be from the upper 50s
(worcester) to the lower 60s from hartford-providence to boston. In
fact our expected highs Thu (m40s) is colder than our avg night time
low temp.

Friday...

upper air pattern remains progressive so anomalous cold trough exits
with rising heights warming temps aloft. Some warm advection clouds
in the morning should give way to sunshine the remainder of the day.

Southwest flow results in 925 mb temps recovering to about +4c to
+5c by Fri afternoon should support highs well into the 50s, a
noticeable warmup from thu.

Weekend...

another robust northern stream short wave and attending cold front
approach sat. Ensembles and deterministic runs in good agreement
with FROPA sometime late sat-sat night. This trough has more
moisture to work with than Wednesday's trough so showers should be
more widespread than midweek. Low level WAA should result in highs
in the upper 50s to lower 60s Saturday. Colder and drier Sunday in
the post frontal airmass. Not quite as cold as Thu but 850 mb temps
lowering to about -4c to -6c will support colder than normal
conditions with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s. It will feel
colder given gusty NW winds.

Early next week...

ensembles and deterministic guidance keep high amplitude long wave
trough over the northeast and great lakes. Thus temps at or cooler
than normal appear likely. Can't rule out isolated diurnal showers
given cyclonic cold flow aloft but mainly dry weather prevails.

Aviation 18z Tuesday through Sunday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Wednesday ... High confidence.

Through tonight...VFR. Light W SW wind.

Wednesday...

vfr. Sct-bkn CU 5-6k ft developing in the afternoon, greatest
coverage in the interior where a few showers possible. Gusty sw
winds in the morning becoming west with 25-30 kt gusts
developing in the afternoon.

Wednesday night...

vfr. W NW gusts 20-30 kt early in the evening, then
diminishing but remaining gusty along the immediate coast.

Kbos terminal... High confidence in taf.

Kbdl terminal... High confidence in taf.

Outlook Wednesday night through Saturday ... Moderate-high confidence.

Wednesday night:VFR. Windy with gusts to 35 kt.

Thursday:VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt.

Thursday night:VFR. Windy with local gusts to 30 kt.

Friday:VFR. Breezy.

Friday night:VFR. Windy with local gusts to 30 kt. Chance
shra.

Saturday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with
gusts to 30 kt. Chance shra.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Wednesday ... High confidence.

Today...

leftover NW gusts to 25-30 kt early will diminish through the
day. West gusts becoming less than 20 kt this afternoon. Rough
seas gradually subsiding.

Tonight...

wsw wind gusts around 20 knots expected ahead of another cold
front. Marginal 5 foot seas will persist across the outer-waters.

Wednesday...

westerly wind gusts will increase as the day wears on behind
another cold front. Expect another round of gale force westerly
wind gusts by afternoon evening... But given current gale
headlines will have to wait until later today to issue a new
set. Seas will once again build across the outer-waters.

Outlook Wednesday night through Saturday ... Moderate to high
Wednesday: low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
35 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Wednesday night: low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
40 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft.

Thursday: moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
35 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Thursday night: low risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas.

Friday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Friday night through Saturday: moderate risk for small craft
advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Chance of rain showers.

Climate
Record low maximum temperatures for Thursday october 18
bos 45 in 1898
orh 36 in 1989
bdl 44 in 2009
pvd 46 in 1939

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 2 pm edt this afternoon for anz231-
251.

Small craft advisory until 5 pm edt this afternoon for anz250.

Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Wednesday for anz254>256.

Synopsis... Frank nocera
near term... Kjc
short term... Frank
long term... Nocera
aviation... Kjc sipprell
marine... Frank nocera sipprell
climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44090 14 mi41 min 61°F2 ft
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 22 mi31 min W 14 G 18 53°F 64°F1016.8 hPa37°F
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 27 mi86 min 5.1 53°F 1017 hPa34°F
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 30 mi81 min W 18 G 19 51°F 4 ft1016 hPa (-0.4)33°F
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 34 mi41 min W 7 G 13 54°F 61°F1016.8 hPa
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 36 mi41 min 54°F 64°F1016.7 hPa

Wind History for Nantucket Island, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chatham, Chatham Municipal Airport, MA7 mi19 minno data10.00 miFair56°F34°F44%1016.5 hPa
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA12 mi15 minWSW 11 G 1510.00 miFair56°F35°F46%1016 hPa
Provincetown Municipal Airport, MA18 mi15 minWSW 1310.00 miFair57°F35°F44%1015.9 hPa

Wind History from CQX (wind in knots)
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1 day agoSW8W73CalmCalmCalmSW33NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4S7S8
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2 days agoW44NW73CalmSW4W3CalmCalmCalm3W33W3CalmCalmCalmW33544NW5SW6
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Tide / Current Tables for Pleasant Bay, Quonset Pont, Massachusetts (2)
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Pleasant Bay
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:26 AM EDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:53 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:47 AM EDT     2.92 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:58 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 02:02 PM EDT     First Quarter
Tue -- 02:42 PM EDT     0.68 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 07:59 PM EDT     3.14 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:40 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.20.70.40.40.81.42.22.82.92.82.421.61.10.80.71.11.62.32.93.132.72.3

Tide / Current Tables for Pollock Rip Channel, Massachusetts Current
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Pollock Rip Channel
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:31 AM EDT     1.86 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 03:37 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:19 AM EDT     -1.42 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 06:53 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:29 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 01:01 PM EDT     1.57 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 01:57 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 02:02 PM EDT     First Quarter
Tue -- 03:54 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 06:37 PM EDT     -1.43 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 09:46 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:41 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.81.81.40.6-0.4-1.1-1.4-1.4-1-0.40.411.41.61.40.8-0.1-0.9-1.4-1.4-1.1-0.60.21

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.