Friday, August18, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Hyde Park, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:06AMSunset 7:51PM Friday August 18, 2017 2:45 AM EDT (06:45 UTC) Moonrise 2:32AMMoonset 5:33PM Illumination 17% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 122 Am Edt Fri Aug 18 2017
Overnight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and slight chance of tstms late.
Fri..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Showers likely with chance of tstms.
Fri night..S winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Showers and tstms likely, mainly in the evening. Vsby 1 to 3 nm after midnight.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun..W winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun night..NW winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon night..SW winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue night..SW winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 122 Am Edt Fri Aug 18 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A warm front moves north across the area waters overnight into Friday morning. A cold front approaches from the west Friday and moves across the waters Saturday. High pressure returns on Sunday and Monday. Another cold front will approach on Tuesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hyde Park, NY
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location: 41.78, -73.95     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 180540
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
140 am edt Fri aug 18 2017

Synopsis
A low pressure system will impact the region late tonight into
Friday night. The system's warm front will move across the region
late tonight and Friday morning with its cold front crossing
the area during the afternoon and evening hours. Showers along
with some thunderstorms will accompany these fronts. It will
become warm and muggy tonight. Conditions will improve over the
weekend with fair weather and seasonable temperatures for Sunday.

Near term until 6 am this morning
Some sprinkles are developing over the region with the better
coverage of showers and potential light measurable rain
approaching western areas. There is a surface dew point
boundary to the south that is drifting north and some of the low
level forcing associated with that feature could support
additional shower development in southern areas through
daybreak. Just some minor adjustments to the rain chances
through daybreak. No real changes to temperatures and sky cover
with the cloudiness preventing temperatures from falling much
from current readings. Lows in the 60s everywhere with rain
chances increasing everywhere through daybreak, with showers
likely in western areas.

Short term 6 am this morning through Saturday night
On Friday morning, the surface warm front will continue to be
lifting across the area from southwest to northeast during the
morning hours. Models hint at some elevated instability with the
boundary moving across, so will allow for some thunder in the
morning hours.

Pwats will be continuing to rise and will reach in excess of two
inches over much of the area by Friday afternoon, as our area
enters into the storm's warm sector. It still looks fairly
cloudy, but a few breaks are certainly possible, especially for
our western and southern areas. Model soundings show some
surface- based instability will be possible and CAPE values may
reach 500-1500 j kg. This will ultimately depend on just how
many breaks of Sun can occur. With strong winds aloft, 0-6 km
bulk shear values will reach 35-45 kts, depending on the
location. The 3km NAM shows some additional showers and
thunderstorms will impact the region for the afternoon and
evening hours ahead of the advancing cold front, but doesn't
really hint at any strong organization of the storms.

Considering the strong shear and moist environment, cannot rule
out a stray strong storm, although limited instability and poor
mid level lapse rates will keep the severe threat from being
more widespread. SPC currently has the entire forecast area in a
marginal risk for severe weather. The main threat will likely
be the heavy rainfall. Although there's enough flow to keep
things moving along, the very high pwats would be capable of
producing heavy rainfall in a short period of time. Depending on
where it falls, this could lead to some minor flooding,
particularly of poor drainage and low lying areas.

High temps on Friday look to reach into the 70s. If we do get
any breaks of sunshine, temps could get into the 80s, but this
is unlikely due to expected cloud cover.

The cold (or occluded) front should be crossing through the
area on Friday night, which will end the widespread rain from
west to east. Lows will only fall into the 60s and it will
continue to be fairly muggy overnight, despite the passing
boundary, as the much drier cooler air will remain well upstream
of the region.

On Saturday, our area will still be upstream of the advancing
upper level trough and will be situated within w-sw flow aloft.

As a result, it probably still be fairly warm and muggy. Cannot
rule out a few showers in spots (perhaps even a thunderstorm)
due to the cyclonic flow ahead of the shortwave, but these will
more scattered in coverage. Temps look to reach into the 80s for
valley areas and dewpoints still will be in the 60s.

The upper level trough will be passing over the area on Saturday
night. Still could be a shower for far northern areas, but most
spots look to stay dry with temps falling into the upper 50s to
mid 60s.

Long term Sunday through Thursday
There should be mostly clear conditions for viewing of the eclipse
on Monday as high pressure will be over head!
Sunday through Tuesday morning... High pressure will be overhead the
forecast region Sunday through the first half of Tuesday. Mostly
sunny conditions will accompany the high pressure system with high
temperatures in the low 80s starting Sunday and moderating into the
upper 80s by Tuesday. Low temperatures will be warm in the 60s with
the terrain running about 5 degrees cooler.

Tuesday afternoon through Thursday... A sharp upper tropospheric
shortwave will provide good dynamics for cyclogenesis over the great
lakes Tuesday into Wednesday. There will be a chance for showers and
thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons. Convection will be
dependent on the timing of the frontal boundaries which is uncertain
at this point. The GFS and ECMWF both have this low rapidly
deepening to our north with a robust cold front draped to the south,
so this system may become a feature of interest as we approach mid
next week. High pressure will begin to build in overnight Wednesday
into Thursday with dry conditions returning for Thursday. Highs
Wednesday will be in the upper 70s to low 80s and cooler on Thursday
in the upper 60s to low 70s. Lows will be in the upper 50s both
nights.

Aviation 06z Friday through Tuesday
Low pressure will track through the great lakes through daybreak
and into southeast canada during today. A warm front associated
with the low will track northward across the region this
morning, followed by a cold frontal passage this evening.

AlthoughVFR conditions are expected through around 08z fri, low
stratus clouds currently developing across nyc area, LI and ct
are expected to expand north and west through daybreak. Expect
mainly ifr CIGS to develop between 08z-13z fri. Ifr CIGS may
persist until 14z-16z Fri before becoming MVFRVFR, last at kpsf
and kgfl.

Showers are expected to increase in areal coverage between
08z-12z fri. There could be some embedded heavier showers, and
even a few thunderstorms during this time. The showers and
embedded thunderstorms may taper off from west to east between
roughly 14z-17z fri. Then, additional scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected for Friday afternoon and evening.

Periods of ifr CIGS vsbys will be possible within heavier
showers storms.

The showers thunderstorms are expected to decrease in coverage
between 03z-06z sat. However, low CIGS are expected to redevelop
during this time, with some low MVFR ifr conditions possible.

Winds will become southeast to south through daybreak at 5-10
kt, although may become gusty at kalb up to 15-20 kt. South to
southeast winds should continue at 8-12 kt through Friday, with
some gusts of 15-20 kt possible. Winds will veer into the
southwest Friday night and decrease to less than 8 kt.

Low level winds shear has been included in kgfl kpou and kpsf
taf sites between 08z Fri and 14z fri, as surface winds at these
sites remain from the southeast to south at less than 8 kt,
while winds around 2000 ft agl increase from the south to
southwest at 30-40 kt.

Winds will be stronger, and variable in direction in and near
any thunderstorms.

Outlook...

Friday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra... Fg... Tsra.

Saturday: low operational impact. Slight chance of shra... Tsra.

Saturday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Sunday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Sunday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Monday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Monday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Tuesday: low operational impact. Chance of shra... Tsra.

Fire weather
Southerly winds will increase for tonight into tomorrow, but
most areas should seeing a wetting rainfall during that time.

With a very moist air mass in place, rh values will only fall to
around 70 percent on Friday with southerly winds of 10 to 15
mph. Saturday will be slightly drier with rh values falling to
around 50 to 60 percent.

Hydrology
A frontal system will bring some showers and thunderstorms to
the region between late tonight and late Friday night. With
dewpoints reaching into the upper 60s to lower 70s and pwats
reaching around 2 inches, locally heavy downpours will be
possible.

Based on the latest model guidance, the chance for the heaviest
rainfall is on Friday afternoon and evening, just ahead of the
approaching cold front. Although flash flooding is not
anticipated due to stronger winds aloft (which should keep heavy
rainfall moving quickly), showers thunderstorms will be capable
of producing heavy downpours within a short period of time,
which may lead to minor flooding of poor drainage, urban and low
lying areas. Main stem rivers may seem some minor rises, but no
river flooding is expected with this rainfall. Less humid air
will start to work its way into the region for late Friday
night. Total QPF amounts will be variable depending on exactly
where showers thunderstorms track. While most areas should see
at least a half inch of rain, its possible that some point locations
may see upwards of an inch or two.

Although a lingering light rain shower or two cannot be ruled
out for Saturday, drier weather should return for Sunday into
Monday.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service AHPS graphs
on our website.

Equipment
While repairing the azimuthal gear box, radar technicians have
determined that the bull gear on kenx radar needs to be
replaced. This will require the radar to be out of service until
at least next Friday, august 25th.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Ma... None.

Vt... None.

Synopsis... Iaa frugis jvm
near term... Nas
short term... Frugis jvm
long term... Cebulko
aviation... Iaa kl
fire weather... Frugis jvm
hydrology... Frugis jvm
equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 17 mi75 min 73°F 1013 hPa65°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 58 mi45 min ESE 5.1 G 6 72°F 76°F1013.6 hPa (-1.7)

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Poughkeepsie, Dutchess County Airport, NY10 mi52 minESE 510.00 miFair71°F64°F81%1012.8 hPa
Newburgh / Stewart, NY20 mi60 minVar 510.00 miMostly Cloudy72°F68°F88%1014.2 hPa

Wind History from POU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmW3W43CalmCalmW5S3S3S5SE5SE6S6SE4SE5SE4SE5
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmNW4CalmCalmN6N7N86N6N8CalmN5CalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoS3W3CalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmS33CalmW3CalmW4SW3S53S3S3CalmSE4SE3CalmN3

Tide / Current Tables for Hyde Park, Hudson River, New York
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Hyde Park
Click for MapNote: Values for the Hudson River above the George Washington bridge are based upon averages for the six months May to October

Fri -- 02:32 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:10 AM EDT     0.09 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:07 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:46 AM EDT     3.27 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:14 PM EDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:32 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:51 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:10 PM EDT     3.94 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.22.51.71.10.50.10.31.122.73.23.332.41.610.40.10.31.12.23.13.73.9

Tide / Current Tables for Poughkeepsie, Hudson River, New York
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Poughkeepsie
Click for MapNote: Values for the Hudson River above the George Washington bridge are based upon averages for the six months May to October

Fri -- 02:32 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:44 AM EDT     0.09 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:07 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:20 AM EDT     3.18 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:48 PM EDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:32 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:50 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:44 PM EDT     3.82 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.82.11.40.80.20.10.61.52.32.93.23.12.721.30.70.20.10.61.52.63.33.73.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.