Sunrise 5:41 AM   Sunset 8:03 PM Moonrise 5:43 AM   Moonset 9:12 PM

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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 605 Am Edt Wed May 8 2024
Today - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: S 1 ft at 2 seconds and S 1 ft at 5 seconds. Patchy fog early this morning. Showers likely with slight chance of tstms this morning, then chance of showers with isolated tstms this afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm early this morning. Tonight - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: sw 1 ft at 2 seconds and S 1 ft at 5 seconds. Thu - N winds around 5 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: E 1 ft at 2 seconds and S 1 ft at 6 seconds. Slight chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Thu night - E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft after midnight. Wave detail: E 1 ft at 2 seconds and se 1 ft at 6 seconds, becoming E 1 ft at 3 seconds and S 1 ft at 7 seconds. Showers likely. Fri - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less. Wave detail: E 1 ft at 3 seconds and S 1 ft at 7 seconds, becoming E 1 ft at 3 seconds and S 1 ft at 9 seconds. Showers likely, mainly in the morning. Fri night - E winds around 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: E 1 ft at 3 seconds and S 1 ft at 9 seconds. Chance of showers. Sat - NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Sat night - S winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Sun - SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Sun night - NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
winds and seas may be higher in and near tstms.

ANZ300 605 Am Edt Wed May 8 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - A warm front pushes to the northeast while a cold front moves through late today into this evening. The cold front then stalls just to the south tonight with developing low pressure approaching Thursday and Thursday night and stalling over the waters on Friday. Sub-sca conditions are expected through the long-term forecast period with the exception of seas occasionally reaching 5 feet in the eastern ocean Friday through Sunday.

FXUS61 KALY 081044 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 644 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024

SYNOPSIS
A warm front will bring some showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms this morning. A prefrontal disturbance and a cold front will bring additional showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and early evening with a few on the stronger side.
Seasonable temperatures return on Thursday, as clouds increase and rain moves back in from the south in the afternoon ahead of a warm front and a low pressure system in the Ohio Valley with unsettled weather and cooler temps continuing into Friday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
As of 634 AM EDT...A strong mid and upper level low is moving across the northern Great Lakes Region this morning. Mid and upper level heights are falling ahead of a sfc low and a warm front moving towards the NY, PA, and NJ border. The isentropic lift is increasing, as we are seeing showers and some elevated thunderstorms increasing across eastern NY. Showalter indices will continue to lower to 0 to -3C over eastern NY and western New England between 6 am and 9 am for showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms to continue. NYS Mesonet hourly pcpn rates in the ALY area have approached 0.10-0.33"/hr. Some minor tweaks to PoP trends this update.

PWATs will increase to an inch and an inch and a quarter and the upper level dynamics will increase as the left front quadrant of a mid and upper level jet will mover over northern NY and southern Quebec. A period of showers and thunderstorms will continue most of the morning, but then decrease towards noontime, as the warm front lifts through the area. The mid level jet will be in the 50-70 KT range enhancing the 0-6 km deep shear.

The threat for strong to severe thunderstorms continues to be nebulous with the best shear out of phase with the better instability. A pre-frontal sfc trough will be moving towards and across eastern NY and western New England in the late morning/early pm. The 00Z HRRRS indicate mean SBCAPEs in the 750-1250 J/kg range with the values closer to 1000 J/kg in the Hudson River Valley or mainly from the Capital Region south and east. The deep shear is strong and top heavy with the stronger winds in the 700-500 hPa layer. Mid level lapse rates will be in the 6.5-7C/km range based on the NAM/CMC/ECMWF from ALY south and east. We added enhanced wording for small hail and gusty winds south and east of the Capital Region over the southeast Catskills, mid Hudson River Valley, southern and central Taconics, Berkshires and NW CT. A few of the storms may be marginally severe with 1" hail or damaging winds. SPC continues a Marginal Risk for the entire forecast area.

Temps should rise above normal in the warm sector and due to some downsloping off the Helderbergs/southern Dacks/eastern Catskills we could see max temps spike with the southwest/west flow with the prefrontal trough. Max temps were raised in the the mid 70s to around 80F in the valleys with 60s to lower 70s over the higher terrain. The lower 80s will be near KPOU.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
Tonight...The main cold front approaches from the west late in the afternoon into the early evening. Additional scattered showers or isolated to scattered thunderstorms will form with less instability. These storms are not expected to be severe.
The best chance of showers activity will be from the Capital Region north and west. Cold advection will occur in the wake of the front with lows in the 40s, except lower 50s from the Capital District south and east. We did not add any patchy fog yet due to partly to mostly cloudy conditions and a west to northwest breeze overnight.

Thursday...the mid level flow becomes zonal over the Northeast in the wake of the first system. A brief break in the pcpn action is possible in the morning, but then the old cold front begins to lift northward again ahead of the next wave ejecting from the Midwest into the Ohio Valley. The isentropic lift increases again for a period of showers/rain initially south of I-90 in the late morning/early pm but then expanding northward.
This is all occurring ahead of a positively tilted mid and upper level trough over southeast Canada, the Great Lakes Region and Midwest. Temps will not be able to recover from normal seasonal readings due to thickening and lowering clouds. Highs will be in the mid and upper 60s in the lower elevations with 50s to lower 60s over the hills and mtns.

Thursday Night through Friday night...A sfc cyclone slides east from the Mid Atlantic Region/NJ Coast Thu night with scattered showers persisting due to the upper level low nearby. In the dank air mass lows will be in the 40s with some upper 30s over the southern Greens/southern Dacks.

Yet another short-wave impulse rotating around the broader mid and upper level trough is expected to bring another period of rainfall on Friday. The differential cyclonic vorticity advection will help focus the rain during the day and it will taper in the evening. The coolest day of the week is expected with cloudy skies and a stratiform cooled atmosphere with highs a good 10 degrees below normal with mid 40s and mid/upper 50s over eastern NY and western New England. The rainfall may cause some ponding of water in a few spots. As the column cools overnight a chilly rain will taper. A few wet snow flakes may occur over the southern Greens. Lows will be in the mid 30s to mid 40s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Unsettled conditions with below normal temperatures looks to dominate much of the long term period, as upper level troughing persists across the Great Lakes/northeast region. Upper level disturbances passing through this trough will bring enhanced chances for showers, which currently looks best on Sunday, however isolated/scattered showers will be possible Saturday as well.

The upper level trough will gradually shift east of the region early next week, however an upper level disturbance and associated frontal system looks to track across the region late Monday or early Tuesday with additional rain showers possible.

High temperatures will only reach the mid 50s to lower 60s Saturday- Sunday, although could be even cooler if widespread showers occur.
Overnight lows mainly in the 40s, with some 30s possible across higher elevations. Gradual warming Monday-Tuesday, with highs reaching the 60s for many areas Monday, and mid 60s to lower 70s Tuesday. Overnight lows in the 40s for Monday and Tuesday morning, although some 30s will be possible across the southern Adirondacks.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A warm front will approach from the west this morning, followed by a cold front passing through from the northwest late this afternoon.

Area of showers and embedded thunderstorms will continue tracking east across the TAF sites through around 13Z-14Z/Wed. A period of MVFR/brief IFR Vsbys and MVFR Cigs will be possible as this passes. Behind these showers/thunderstorms, a period of MVFR Cigs are expected with only isolated showers. A few showers/thunderstorms may then develop between 16Z-19Z/Wed as a wind shift line passes eastward. Coverage will be isolated at best, so have not included mention in this set of TAFs, however AMDs will be issued should thunderstorms develop and potentially impact a TAF sites.

VFR conditions are then expected this afternoon and early evening. Scattered showers may then develop and affect KGFL with a cold front. MVFR Cigs are then expected to develop at KGFL, KALB and KPSF later this evening behind the cold front.

Light/variable winds will become south to southwest at 5-10 KT by mid morning, then will shift into the west after 19Z/Wed and increase to 10-15 KT with some gusts up to 25 KT, strongest at KALB and KPSF. Winds will become west to northwest and decrease to 8-12 KT toward and after 00Z/Thu.

Winds will be stronger, and variable in direction in and near any thunderstorms.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Friday: High Operational Impact
Likely SHRA
RA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

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Hyde Park
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Wed -- 01:33 AM EDT     4.33 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:42 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 05:43 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:26 AM EDT     -0.42 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:07 PM EDT     3.56 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:02 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:29 PM EDT     -0.27 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 09:11 PM EDT     Moonset
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Poughkeepsie
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Wed -- 01:07 AM EDT     4.20 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:43 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 05:43 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:00 AM EDT     -0.42 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:41 PM EDT     3.46 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:02 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:03 PM EDT     -0.27 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 09:11 PM EDT     Moonset
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Poughkeepsie, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet

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