Thursday, April27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Hyde Park, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 5:54AMSunset 7:51PM Thursday April 27, 2017 2:49 PM EDT (18:49 UTC) Moonrise 7:05AMMoonset 9:21PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 214 Pm Edt Thu Apr 27 2017
This afternoon..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Patchy fog early with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Areas of fog. Chance of showers after midnight. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the morning. Areas of fog in the morning with vsby 1 nm or less.
Fri night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat..S winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..W winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming N after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun..NE winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming se. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers after midnight.
Mon..SE winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming S 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less...then around 2 ft. Chance of showers in the daytime. Showers likely at night.
ANZ300 214 Pm Edt Thu Apr 27 2017
Synopsis for long island waters and new york harbor.. A return of weak high pressure this afternoon will be followed by a weakening cold front from the northwest tonight. This then dissipates across the area Friday. Another cold front will slowly approach from the northwest Saturday...then passes through Saturday evening...followed by high pressure building from the northwest on Sunday. A warm front will approach Sunday night and lift north on Monday...followed by a trailing cold front late Monday into Monday night.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hyde Park, NY
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location: 41.78, -73.95     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 271745
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
145 pm edt Thu apr 27 2017

Synopsis
An approaching weak frontal boundary with allow for some showers and
thunderstorms to pass across the region tonight. Behind the front,
clouds will break for some sunshine on Friday with continued mild
temperatures. It will remain warm over the weekend, with another
chance for showers and thunderstorms on Saturday.

Near term /through tonight/
As of 145 pm edt... Slow moving and closed off storm system
continues to be situated off the coast of southern new england,
while a large upper level trough is located over the northern
plains and upper great lakes. Meanwhile, a fast moving shortwave
ridge is currently located over the area, but will quickly be
translating eastward by later today, as the large upper level
trough continues to slide eastward towards the area.

Despite the upper level ridge in place, visible satellite
imagery and surface observations continues to show plenty of
stubborn low clouds, mainly for areas south and east of the
capital region. Some clearing has occurred across the
adirondacks and western mohawk valley, but clouds remain
elsewhere. Recent satellite trends suggest that these clouds are
slowly eroding across capital and saratoga regions, so there
should finally be some sunshine returning to those areas during
the afternoon. Meanwhile, clouds look to mainly hang on across
the mid-hudson valley and into western new england, although
there will likely be some thinning there as well by later this
afternoon or early this evening. High temperature today have
been adjusted due to the lingering cloud cover, but it still
looks to be a mild day with highs reaching the upper 60s to mid
70s across the area.

By this evening, heights will be falling across the upper level
trough approaches the area, and a weak surface cold front will
be approaching from the west. Mid and high level clouds will be
increasing, although any precip looks to hold off until after
midnight. Based off the latest 3km hrrr, a line of showers and
embedded thunderstorms will be moving across western and central
ny this evening, and reach across eastern ny and western new
england after midnight and pass through by before sunrise.

These showers/t-storms look to be weakening, thanks to the lack
of daytime heating and limited upper level forcing in place.

Will keep the threat for thunder in the forecast (mainly for
western areas), but instability looks mainly elevated, as
nocturnal effects should limit any surface based instability.

Best chance for seeing precip will be for areas north and west
of albany.

The front looks to be crossing by late Thursday night into
Friday morning from west to east, ending the threat for precip.

With the clouds and possible precip, overnight lows mainly look
to be in the 50s.

Short term /Friday through Saturday night/
The front should be clear of the local area by the mid-morning
hours Friday, with post-frontal subsidence leading to a
clearing trend. Another very warm day is expected, as there is
really not any cold air advection behind the front.

Upper-level ridging will attempt to expand into the
northeastern us beginning Friday night as the pattern becomes
very amplified. However, the upper jet/lower-level baroclinic
zone will remain in close proximity to the local area. Midlevel
moisture will increase late Friday night into Saturday, and high
pressure over south-central canada will try to expand eastward,
pushing the lower-level frontal boundary across the region on
Saturday. There is not a lot of synoptic-scale forcing for
ascent with the upper ridge in place, but cannot rule out a few
showers or maybe a thunderstorm from late Friday night into
Saturday as the front crosses the region. A notable solution is
the nam, which appears to generate an MCS and pushes it across
our northern zones Friday night. Don't think this is totally
probable but it's something to watch for. Model forecast
soundings suggest a respectable amount of instability Saturday
with dewpoints in the upper 50s and steep midlevel lapse rates
from the capital district south, suggesting a conditional threat
for some stronger storms should they develop. Uncertainty with
respect to coverage precludes mentioning this threat in the hwo
for now, and SPC just has general thunder over the southern
portions of the cwa. It will also be quite breezy Saturday as
mixing into a strong low-level wind field will occur.

After another very mild night Friday night, another very warm
day is on tap for Saturday, with highs ranging from the mid-60s
over the adirondacks to the lower 80s in the mid-hudson valley.

Considerably cooler Saturday night, though still well above
seasonal normals in most areas.

Long term /Sunday through Thursday/
The extended forecast period continues to be unsettled into the
middle of next week, as a mean upper level trough will set up over
the northeast and southeastern canada Tuesday into Wednesday.

Sunday... High pressure will be in control to start the long term
building in from south of james bay. An h500 ridge will be situated
east of the mid-atlantic coast. Clouds will be on the increase
during the day, as a warm front lifts northward from the ohio valley
and mid atlantic states. Low pressure associated with the warm
front will be moving northward into the central ms river valley, as
an upstream mid and upper level trough turns negatively tilted.

Clouds will continue to thicken and lower from the south and west
with the increasing isentropic lift ahead of the warm front. Some
isolated to scattered showers will begin to impact the forecast area
during the afternoon. The better chance of showers will tend to be
west of the hudson river valley. H850 temps increase to about +8c
to +12c from northeast to southwest across eastern ny and western
new england for high temps to be in the mid and upper 60s in the
valleys, and upper 50s to lower 60s over the mtns.

Sunday night into Monday... The isentropic lift continues to enhance
ahead of the front with good low-level moisture convergence for a
better chance of showers Sunday evening. The warm front will likely
not make its way across the forecast area until later Monday, so
high chc and likely pops were carried into Monday morning. The
forecast area will likely get into a warm sector on Monday. The gfs
does not have a lot of SBCAPE over the region with generally less
than 500 j/kg, but the showalter stability indices fall to -1c to -
3c with a notable south to southwest low-level jet of 40-50 kts
between 18z to 00z tue. A chance of thunderstorms was included
across the entire area on Monday. The air mass will become more
humid with sfc dewpts getting into the 50s to lower 60s. After lows
in the 40s to lower 50s, expect highs to be above normal in the
humid air mass with generally lower 70s in the valleys and 60s over
the higher terrain and across most of western new england.

Monday night into Tuesday... A strong low pressure system closes off
over the western and central great lakes region. The cold front on
the leading edge of the upper trough impacts eastern ny and western
new england with a band of showers and some isolated to scattered
thunderstorms Monday night into Tuesday morning. The 0-6 km bulk
shear increases to 50+ knots Monday night ahead of the front with
mucape values of 100-400 j/kg off the latest gfs. Layered pwats rise
to 1-1.50+ inches for a brief period. Some bursts of moderate to
heavy rainfall area are likely with the cold front. Lows Monday
night with be on the mild side with mainly upper 40s to upper 50s
across the region. The cold front moves through by daybreak based
on the gfs/ecmwf/can ggem. Post cold frontal advection and cyclonic
flow aloft will impact the area on tue. Scattered showers north of
the mid-hudson valley and breezy conditions are likely as a short-
wave moves across the region associated with the upper low. H850
temps tumble to -3c to +1c from northwest to southeast across the
region by 00z Wed based on the latest gfs.

Tuesday night to Wednesday... In the cyclonic flow at the sfc and
aloft, cool and chilly conditions will dominate for the mid-week. A
slight to low chance of showers is possible from the capital
region/berkshires north and west. Lows will be on the cool side
with mid/upper 30s to around 40f over the mountains and lower to mid
40s in the valleys. Temps may dip a shade below normal on Wed with
some isolated showers in the cool cyclonic flow. Lower to mid 60s
are possible from the capital district and mid-hudson valley south
and east into NW ct with generally 50s north and west, though some
upper 40s are possible over the southern dacks and southern
greens.

Aviation /18z Thursday through Tuesday/
Clouds will continue to linger with a low pressure system departing
the new england coast and another system approaching from from the
ohio valley. Ceilings and vsibilities will beVFR but bkn/ovc less
than 5000ft.

As the system from the west moves eastward, there will be a chance
of showers between 6-10z. Any showers that do form will be light.

Winds will be out of the south less than 10kts shifting to the west
after 12z Friday morning.

Outlook...

Friday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Saturday: moderate operational impact. Breezy chance of shra... Tsra.

Saturday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Sunday: low operational impact. Slight chance of shra.

Sunday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra.

Monday: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra... Tsra.

Monday night: high operational impact. Likely shra... Tsra.

Tuesday: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra.

Fire weather
A frontal boundary may allow for some showers or thunderstorms
tonight, but not all areas will see rainfall. Behind the front,
clearing is expected on Friday, and rh values will fall to 30 to
40 percent by the afternoon hours, along with west winds around
10 mph.

With another frontal boundary nearby, some showers or
thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday. This will allow
prevent rh values from getting as low, with readings only as low
as 45 to 55 percent on Saturday afternoon. West to southwest
winds will be 10 to 15 mph on Saturday, with a few higher gusts
possible as well.

Hydrology
A weak frontal boundary will allow for some scattered showers
and thunderstorms tonight. Although point rainfall totals will
depend on the exact placement and track of individual showers
and thunderstorms, basin average amounts will mainly be under a
tenth of an inch, which will have little impact on rivers and
streams.

Dry weather is expected on Friday, but another frontal boundary
will return the threat for some scattered showers and
thunderstorms between late Friday night into Saturday evening.

Amounts will again be variable, but basin average amounts
shouldn't be enough to cause any hydrologic issues.

After a mainly dry day on Sunday, another frontal boundary is
expected to impact the region between Monday and Monday night.

This front may allow for some locally higher rainfall totals
thanks to showers and thunderstorms. Although no problems are
anticipated on the main stem rivers (as shown in the mmefs),
high water within urban or poor drainage areas will be possible.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs
on our website.

Aly watches/warnings/advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Ma... None.

Vt... None.

Synopsis... Frugis
near term... Frugis
short term... Thompson
long term... Wasula
aviation... Vtk
fire weather... Frugis
hydrology... Frugis


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 17 mi80 min 67°F 1011 hPa58°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 58 mi50 min SSE 5.1 G 6 59°F 1012.5 hPa (-0.7)

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Poughkeepsie, Dutchess County Airport, NY10 mi57 minSSE 310.00 miOvercast67°F57°F71%1011.1 hPa
Newburgh / Stewart, NY20 mi65 minVar 610.00 miOvercast66°F60°F83%1012.5 hPa

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Last 24hrNW5NW7N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmS4S33SE3
1 day agoNW6NE9E8
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NE7NE5NE6N6N6N5N5N4N6NW7N5N8N5N7N7N7N8N7NE6N6NW3
2 days agoW4SW7SW4SE5SE4SE4SE3SE7SE4SE5SE4CalmNE4E4CalmNE3N4N6N5N5N7N65N7

Tide / Current Tables for Hyde Park, Hudson River, New York
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Hyde Park
Click for MapNote: Values for the Hudson River above the George Washington bridge are based upon averages for the six months May to October

Thu -- 02:00 AM EDT     4.23 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:57 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:04 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 09:01 AM EDT     -0.54 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:34 PM EDT     3.75 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:50 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:09 PM EDT     -0.43 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:20 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.244.243.42.41.30.4-0.2-0.5-0.112.23.23.73.73.32.51.50.6-0.1-0.4-0.10.9

Tide / Current Tables for Poughkeepsie, Hudson River, New York
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Poughkeepsie
Click for MapNote: Values for the Hudson River above the George Washington bridge are based upon averages for the six months May to October

Thu -- 01:34 AM EDT     4.11 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:57 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:04 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:35 AM EDT     -0.54 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:08 PM EDT     3.65 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:49 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:43 PM EDT     -0.43 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:20 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.544.13.72.91.90.90.1-0.4-0.50.31.52.63.43.63.52.9210.2-0.3-0.40.21.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.