Monday, May20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Hyde Park, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:29AMSunset 8:14PM Monday May 20, 2019 2:34 AM EDT (06:34 UTC) Moonrise 10:12PMMoonset 6:58AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 958 Pm Edt Sun May 19 2019
Overnight..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Showers likely with chance of tstms late this evening and early morning, then chance of showers and slight chance of tstms late. Areas of fog. Vsby less than 1 nm.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Areas of fog in the morning. Chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon. Vsby less than 1 nm in the morning.
Mon night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed night..W winds around 5 kt, becoming S after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Fri..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 958 Pm Edt Sun May 19 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A cold front over the midwest will track east and pass through the area Monday evening. Ahead of the front, a series of pre- frontal troughs will work across the area, one tonight, and another Monday afternoon. High pressure will return for the middle of next week. A quick moving frontal system will likely affect the region Thursday night, with a series of subsequent weak frontal systems possible into the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hyde Park, NY
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location: 41.78, -73.95     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 200550
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
150 am edt Mon may 20 2019

Synopsis
Additional showers and a few thunderstorms will spread eastward
across the area tonight, followed by more widespread showers
and strong to severe thunderstorms associated with a cold front
passage on Monday. Much cooler and drier air will filter in
Monday night into Tuesday, with windy conditions developing.

Near term until 6 am this morning
As of 125 am edt... Overall trends show convective activity
slowly decreasing, but not ending overnight. There are still
pockets of MLCAPE around 500 j kg noted on SPC mesoanalysis
page, with the main pre-frontal trough still back to the west
over central ny. So scattered showers with some embedded thunder
will continue through much of the night as the trough moves east.

Most concentrated activity over the next few hours will be
across far southern portions of the area, as a weakening
convective cluster tracks ne. It will be a warm and muggy night
with lows mainly in the 60s.

Short term 6 am this morning through Tuesday night
Showers and thunderstorms are expected again on Monday as a cold
front pushes through the region during the afternoon and evening
hours. Mixed layer flow is forecast to become southwest and
increase further. The 0-6 km shear will likely be around 40-60
kt, which will be more than sufficient for storm organization.

Unidirectional wind field and potential for larger magnitude of
cape (> 2000 j kg) favors both a damaging wind and large hail
threat. Mid level drying could also enhance hail potential.

There is a slight risk for severe weather for albany and points
south and east. North and west, there is a marginal risk.Temperatures
will be quite warm ahead of the cold front thanks to the
southwest wind, as lower to mid 80s are expected in the hudson
valley from the capital district southward.

The cold front should be east of our region by mid late Monday
evening, with cold dry advection commencing with breezy
northwest winds developing. There could be a few lingering
showers over mainly higher terrain areas as an upper level
disturbance moves through just behind the cold front. Otherwise,
it will become much cooler and less humid Monday night.

Dry, but cool windy conditions expected for Tuesday, as high
pressure remains west of our region over the central upper great
lakes and low pressure slowly tracks eastward across the
canadian maritimes. This will result in a fairly strong pressure
gradient for this time of year. Northwest winds will become
rather gusty once better mixing occurs by late morning and
through the daylight hours. Gusts of 30-40 mph will be common,
especially across favored higher terrain areas and the capital
district into the berkshires. Temperatures will be much cooler
than Monday, with 50s and 60s for highs.

Long term Wednesday through Sunday
Extended period will feature active weather as warm
front stationary front(s) remain nearby.

Beginning with Wednesday, fairly good consensus favoring a ridge of
high pressure extending from northwest to southeast across the
region and sliding into new england. So with a cooler start to the
day, temperatures with late may sunshine should allow for high
temperatures to climb near 70f for valley locations with mainly 60s
elsewhere.

Then as southeast ridge builds, ridge rolling short wave(s) and a
warm front or two will impact the region. Recent trends favor an
mcs structure along and ahead of the warm front may impact the
region during the day Thursday. Best theta-e advection will be
along the i90 corridor so we will keep pops fairly high into the
scattered category. As cloud coverage may be more prevalent, we
will keep temperatures generally into the 60s and lower 70s.

The MCS structure is expected to track southeastward and off the new
england coastline as a rather complex synoptic surface feature(s)
will likely be in place. It does seem the short wave ridge axis
will transverse the region with a reduced threat of showers Thursday
night into Friday morning. Overnight lows generally into the 50s.

Yet another surge of warmer air, warm front, is forecast to lift
northeastward later Friday and into the start of the holiday
weekend. For now, we will keep the chance pops in the forecast grids
and highs mainly into the 70s with overnight lows 50s.

Aviation 06z Monday through Friday
One area of showers and isolated thunderstorms is around the mid
hudson valley that will affect that area through about 10z, while
a few showers will affect the kpsf area through about 07z.

Putting some intervals of MVFR visibilities in any showers
around kpsf and potential thunder around kpou. Otherwise, quite
a bit of midlevel clouds well above 3000 feet over the region.

Toward sunrise, some fog could form, especially at kgfl and kpsf
if clouds break up and winds go calm. Included some intervals of
ifr visibilities between 08z-12z at kgfl and kpsf.

Any shower activity after 10z will be isolated to scattered so
vcsh will not be included until new scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are expected after 16z-18z associated
with a cold front. Most of the scattered shower and isolated
activity will form east and south of kgfl but including a brief
period of vcsh at kgfl between 16z-21z. And at kalb between
16z- 22z. Any shower or isolated thunderstorm activity at kpsf
and kpou will be a little later, 17z-22z and included a prob30
for thunder at kpou.

Predominant conditions after 12z-14z will beVFR outside of
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms through this
afternoon. Once the threat for showers and isolated
thunderstorms ends, ceilings and visibilities will continueVFR
through this evening.

South winds at 10-15 kt at kalb will shift to west and
northwest at less than 10 kt before daybreak. Winds at kgfl,
kpou and kpsf will be southwest to west at less than 6 kt and
near calm at times. Included llws at kgfl, kpsf and kpou with
winds at 2000 feet from the southwest at near 40 kt. Surface
winds will become southwest at 10 to 20 kt mid morning through
early afternoon. Once the cold front tracks through later in the
afternoon winds shift to west and northwest at 10 to 20 kt,
continuing into this evening.

Outlook...

Monday night: low operational impact. Breezy slight chance of shra.

Tuesday: moderate operational impact. Windy no sig wx.

Tuesday night: moderate operational impact. Windy no sig wx.

Wednesday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Wednesday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Thursday: low operational impact. Slight chance of shra... Tsra.

Thursday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra... Tsra.

Friday: low operational impact. Slight chance of shra... Tsra.

Fire weather
Showers and thunderstorms, some of them becoming severe,
will continue into this evening. The main threats are damaging
winds, small hail and heavy rainfall within any strong storm.

Additional showers and a few thunderstorms will spread eastward
across the area tonight, followed by more widespread showers and
strong to severe thunderstorms associated with a cold front passage
on Monday. Much cooler and drier air will filter in Monday night
into Tuesday, with windy conditions developing.

Relative humidity values will recover to maximum values of
around 90 to 100 percent tonight and 70 to 95 percent Monday
night. Minimum rh values will be around 45 to 55 percent Monday
afternoon and about 40 to 55 percent Tuesday afternoon.

Winds today and tonight will be southerly between 5 to 15 mph.

Winds on Monday will shift to the southwest and increase to 10
to 20 mph, with gusts to around 30 mph.

Hydrology
Strong to severe thunderstorms have developed and will continue
through the evening hours before weakening. These storms have
been producing heavy rainfall. Training of storms is possible
which could lead to flash flooding and flooding of urban or low
lying areas.

Additional rounds of showers and a few thunderstorms will
continue tonight into Monday ahead of a cold front approaching
from the west. Moisture anomalies will still be relatively high,
so there is a continued chance for locally heavy rain within
any convection. Basin average rainfall amounts will vary
significantly due to convective nature of the precipitation.

Locally greater than 1 inch will be possible where thunderstorm
activity is maximized. Areas north and west of albany are
expected to see multiple rounds during this time.

Drier weather returns Monday night through Wednesday as high
pressure builds back in. The next chance of showers arrives
later in the week with the approach of a warm front.

Please visit our advanced hydrologic prediction service AHPS web
page for specific area rivers and lakes observations and
forecasts.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Ma... None.

Vt... None.

Synopsis... Jpv jlv
near term... Jpv
short term... Jpv jlv
long term... Bgm
aviation... Nas
fire weather... Jlv
hydrology... Jlv


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NPXN6 4 mi65 min SE 1.9 65°F 1012 hPa64°F
TKPN6 16 mi41 min S 8 G 12 67°F 1010.6 hPa66°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 58 mi41 min WSW 6 G 8.9 63°F 56°F1013.2 hPa

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Poughkeepsie, Dutchess County Airport, NY10 mi42 minS 86.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist68°F64°F90%1010.2 hPa
Newburgh / Stewart, NY20 mi50 minSSW 106.00 miThunderstorm Rain66°F66°F100%1011.5 hPa

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Last 24hr------------------------------------------------
1 day ago------------------------------------------------
2 days ago------------------------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for Hyde Park, Hudson River, New York
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Hyde Park
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Mon -- 02:41 AM EDT     4.13 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:31 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:57 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 09:27 AM EDT     -0.28 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:12 PM EDT     3.35 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:33 PM EDT     0.04 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:12 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.63.544.13.72.921.10.3-0.2-0.20.61.62.53.13.33.22.71.91.20.60.10.10.8

Tide / Current Tables for Poughkeepsie, Hudson River, New York
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Poughkeepsie
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Mon -- 02:15 AM EDT     4.02 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:31 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:58 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 09:01 AM EDT     -0.28 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:46 PM EDT     3.26 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:07 PM EDT     0.04 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:11 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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33.743.93.32.51.50.70-0.30.1122.73.13.232.31.60.90.300.31.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.