Friday, February15, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Hyde Park, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:49AMSunset 5:29PM Friday February 15, 2019 10:07 PM EST (03:07 UTC) Moonrise 2:03PMMoonset 4:19AM Illumination 87% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 836 Pm Est Fri Feb 15 2019
Tonight..W winds around 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of sprinkles early this evening, then slight chance of showers after midnight.
Sat..NW winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..N winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun night..SE winds around 5 kt, becoming E after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of light snow in the evening, then light snow likely after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of light snow in the morning. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue night..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of snow after midnight. Vsby less than 1 nm after midnight.
Wed..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of snow. Vsby less than 1 nm.
Wed night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of snow in the evening, then chance of freezing rain and sleet after midnight. Vsby less than 1 nm in the evening.
ANZ300 836 Pm Est Fri Feb 15 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A cold front passes through this evening, followed by high pressure building in through Saturday night. Low pressure passes to the south Sunday night into Monday. High pressure then returns for Tuesday followed by an approaching low pressure system on Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hyde Park, NY
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location: 41.78, -73.95     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 160226
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
926 pm est Fri feb 15 2019

Synopsis
Showers are likely along an approaching cold front this
evening, with some light snow over the higher terrain. Temperatures
will return to seasonable values for the weekend behind the front
with mainly dry weather expected. A weak system has the potential to
bring light accumulating snow Sunday night into washington's
birthday.

Near term through Saturday
Showers have exited and the cold front is through all areas.

There is a zone of clearing in central and eastern ny but clouds
still lingering from just east of the capital district to points
south through the taconics and the mid hudson valley into
western new england. The clearing should linger through this
evening but as low level flow turns more nw, some of the lake
effect clouds and moisture should build east and close off the
zone of clearing. West to northwest surface winds will likely
stay steady through the night, slowing the cooling of
temperatures overnight. Some lake effect snows should extend
into the southern adirondacks by daybreak, too. Just some minor
adjustments to temperatures, sky cover and chances for snow
showers through the night. Previous afd below...

expecting little more than a few hundredths of an inch to
around a tenth of an inch of QPF with this front, although there
could be some brief downpours as forecast soundings suggest
steep lapse rates and weak shallow instability. The rain could
briefly end as snow showers but accumulation is not expected
outside of the southern adirondacks and perhaps the southern
greens and berkshires where less than an inch is expected. Ahead
of the front, gusty southerly winds to around 25 kt will
continue.

Temperatures will continue to drop in steady cold advection
behind the front, with westerly winds gusting 20-30 kt at times.

A steep temperature drop has been observed at krme ksyr of about
7f in an hour. The nys mesonet site at herkimer dropped 9f in
about 15 minutes. Lake effect snow will begin over the western
adirondacks, but accumulations look limited due to the shallow
inversion heights barely over 1 km, and marginal surface to 850
mb delta- TS of around 15c. Could pick up 1 to 3 inches tonight
into early tomorrow over northern herkimer and hamilton
counties, with a few tenths of an inch possible closer to the
thruway corridor late tonight into Saturday morning. Will need
to watch for the potential for moisture to freeze on surfaces
with the cold advection, although gusty winds should dry things
out a bit. Lows will be in the upper teens to upper 20s with at
least partial coverage of postfrontal stratus.

Saturday, midlevel troughing will remain overhead early with
height rises occurring in the afternoon as a surface ridge
builds in. This will allow any remaining lake effect activity to
dissipate. Partial sunshine is expected with highs near seasonal
normal values in the mid-20s to upper 30s.

Short term Saturday night through Monday
Saturday night into Sunday, a mainly tranquil period of weather
is expected with zonal midlevel flow trending southwesterly with
time. At the surface, a ridge of high pressure will continue to
nose into the region from the northwest, resulting in good
radiational cooling conditions Saturday night. Lows in the
single digits and teens are expected, near normal for this time
of year.

With the cold high remaining to the north and low pressure
organizing to our southwest, expect seasonably cold conditions
to continue Sunday. Morning sunshine should give way to
increasing high and mid clouds by the afternoon and evening.

Some light precip may creep into the catskills late in the day,
but the majority of the day should remain dry.

Sunday night into Monday, a flat midlevel wave tracks into the
region in fast west-southwest flow. At the surface, weak low
will move up the upper ohio valley before reforming offshore of
nj. Broad isentropic lift will begin spreading into the region
after 00z mon, and may take a bit of time to saturate the
column. Some weak frontogenesis is depicted by the 12z GFS in
the 850 to 700 mb layer as well. The ecmwf, which had kept the
precipitation mainly to our south, has trended back north a bit
for the 12z run. There are a majority of GEFS plumes that result
in measurable precipitation for much of our area, so have
increased pops to the likely range for 06-12z Mon for all but
the northernmost tier of zones. Some lingering weak fgen is
depicted 12-18z Monday even after the low GOES well offshore,
so we could wring out additional light accumulations. At this
point, appears a 1-3 inch snowfall is possible over much of the
forecast area. There is still some uncertainty to be worked out
regarding timing and track of the system, but trends have been
a bit wetter. Lows are expected to range from the upper single
digits to the mid-20s, so any snowfall that occurs should stick
readily to most surfaces. Timing could impact the Monday morning
commute (to the extent that one exists on a federal holiday).

Any lingering snowfall should taper off Monday afternoon and
evening. Highs are expected to reach the mid-20s to mid-30s, a
bit below seasonal normals.

Long term Monday night through Friday
This period will be dry on the ends with snow at mid-week. High
pressure builds across the forecast area with plenty of sunshine on
Tuesday. The high breaks down in response to weak low pressure
expected to materialize with great ambiguity somewhere over the mid-
atlantic and affect our area with snow, with the height of the
activity being Wednesday night.

The canadian and european models hint at light snowfall amounts,
with the GFS being slightly more generous. This situation will have
to be monitored over the course of this weekend to see if models
could be evolving things into a more concise system, but right now
it looks like nothing more than a minor event... Mainly snow. Flows
look to be somewhat weak through a large column from the surface on
up, which may allow sufficient-enough diurnal warming to change some
central and southern zone locations over to a rain or mix as the
system begins to pull away on Thursday.

Sprawling upper midwest high pressure tries to work its way in, but
a low pressure wave across the mid south will at least limit the
availability of sunshine initially. However... For now the high is
expected to win out for the start of the following weekend.

High temperatures will range from the upper teens to mid 30s on
Tuesday, the lower 20s to lower 30s on Wednesday, the upper 20s to
upper 30s on Thursday, and from around 30 degrees to around 40
degrees on Friday. Lows will range from around zero degrees to the
mid teens Monday night, the lower single digits to around 20 degrees
Tuesday night, and the lower teens to mid 20s Wednesday night. Only
very slightly colder readings are expected for Thursday night.

Aviation 03z Saturday through Wednesday
A cold front is tracking through the region and winds have
shifted at kalb and kgfl but will shift from south to west at
kpou and kpsf by about 02z-04z. There are scattered showers in
the region but mainly north of kpou. So, including vcsh at kalb,
kgfl and kpsf with tempo for MVFR visibilities and ceilings
between 00z-04z in any scattered showers. Just including vcsh at
kpou but no tempo for any reduced ceilings or visibilities
because any showers are more isolated.

Once the cold front exits the entire region, there will be some
intervals of breaks in the clouds but moisture off the great
lakes will result in a mostly cloudy sky through tonight.

Ceilings should be just above 3000 feet but could be at or just
below 3000 feet at kpsf for a time between 06z-14z. All ceilings
rise to or above 3500 feet after about 14z Saturday.

Visibilities will be predominantlyVFR through Saturday
afternoon.

Winds will shift to west this evening at around 10 kt with some
gusts over 20 kt, maybe approaching 30 kt at kalb. West winds
continue through tonight, gusty at times, then shift to
northwest after about 14z Saturday, and continuing gusty
through Saturday afternoon.

Outlook...

Saturday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Sunday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Sunday night: moderate operational impact. Likely sn.

Washingtons birthday: moderate operational impact. Chance of shsn... Sn.

Monday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Tuesday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Tuesday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Wednesday: moderate operational impact. Chance of sn.

Hydrology
No hydrologically significant precipitation is expected through
the weekend. Some light rain and snow showers will occur along a
passing cold front this afternoon and evening, with light lake
effect snow in its wake. Temperatures will return to seasonable
values this weekend. A weak system will bring the potential for
light accumulating snow Sunday night into Monday, but QPF totals
are expected to be a quarter inch or less.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service AHPS graphs on our
website.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Ma... None.

Vt... None.

Synopsis... Thompson
near term... Nas thompson
short term... Thompson
long term... Elh
aviation... Nas
hydrology... Thompson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TKPN6 16 mi37 min NNW 2.9 G 11 38°F 1006 hPa32°F
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 17 mi97 min NNE 1 40°F 1003 hPa35°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 58 mi43 min NNW 1.9 G 4.1 45°F 36°F1003.8 hPa

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Poughkeepsie, Dutchess County Airport, NY10 mi74 minSW 510.00 miMostly Cloudy49°F36°F61%1003 hPa
Newburgh / Stewart, NY20 mi82 minW 810.00 miMostly Cloudy50°F37°F62%1003.7 hPa

Wind History from POU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmE7CalmSE66SE5SE6SE4CalmCalmS4S4S7S10S6
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2 days agoN7N54N5CalmCalmSW3S4S4SW6SW8SW7--W10W13SW16
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Tide / Current Tables for Hyde Park, Hudson River, New York
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Hyde Park
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Fri -- 03:05 AM EST     0.18 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:19 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 06:51 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:38 AM EST     3.21 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:03 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:04 PM EST     0.08 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:28 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 09:35 PM EST     2.69 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.10.60.30.20.41.12.12.83.23.232.61.91.20.70.30.10.31.11.82.42.62.72.4

Tide / Current Tables for Poughkeepsie, Hudson River, New York
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Poughkeepsie
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:39 AM EST     0.18 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:19 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 06:51 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:12 AM EST     3.12 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:03 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:38 PM EST     0.08 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:28 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 09:09 PM EST     2.61 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.90.50.20.20.61.52.42.93.132.82.21.510.50.20.10.61.42.12.52.62.52.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.