Thursday, September20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Luna Pier, MI

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9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 7:18AMSunset 7:34PM Thursday September 20, 2018 2:43 AM EDT (06:43 UTC) Moonrise 4:36PMMoonset 1:46AM Illumination 78% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ142 Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Maumee Bay To Reno Beach Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Reno Beach To The Islands Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From The Islands To Vermilion Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Vermilion To Avon Point Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Avon Point To Willowick Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on- The Lake Oh-lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Geneva-on-the- Lake To Conneaut Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 339 Pm Edt Wed Sep 19 2018
Tonight..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..Southeast winds 10 knots or less. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south 15 to 20 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Friday..South winds 15 to 25 knots becoming southwest. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. Waves building to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet. A small craft advisory will be needed. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Saturday through Monday. The water temperature off toledo is 73 degrees, off cleveland 72 degrees and off erie 68 degrees.
LEZ142 Expires:201809200215;;895075 FZUS51 KCLE 191939 NSHCLE Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland OH 339 PM EDT Wed Sep 19 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ142>149-200215-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Luna Pier, MI
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location: 41.78, -83.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 200409
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
1209 am edt Thu sep 20 2018

Aviation
Increasing dynamic forcing for ascent will kick off a period of warm
advection beginning tonight and persist well into the day on
Thursday. Initial midlevel theta E advection appears necessary to
moisten the column before 800mb moisture advection ramps up after
12z Thursday. Still some uncertainty with how cig vsby trends will
play out in the warm advection. Still expecting a fair amount of mid
and high cloud that will limit amount of fog development late. Tafs
still carry some MVFR fog around daybreak which may be overdoing
based on MOS trends. Otherwise, midlevel instability development
along and ahead of the retreating 925-850mb warm front after 14z
will lead to a period of showers and be elevated thunderstorms 14-
18z north of m 59. Organized signal in virtually all of the model
data supports lingering thunderstorms during the afternoon south of
m59. These thunderstorms are expected to occur along the surface
warm front between 20-24z. Some questions remain, particularly where
exactly front placement will be.

For dtw... Persistent boundary layer moisture INVOF stalled front
brings a potential for MVFR fog haze at daybreak. Still expecting
mid-high cloud to limit development. Main forecast concern is
potential for surface based thunderstorm development between 20-24z.

Introduced a prob30 group for possible discrete cells. The
thunderstorm potential will be conditional to placement of the
surface warm front.

Dtw threshold probabilities
* moderate for ceiling 5000 ft or less redeveloping Thursday
morning.

Prev discussion
Issued at 352 pm edt Wed sep 19 2018
discussion...

temperatures ranging from the upper 60s to low 70s over the area
this aftn. Cloud fraction varies greatly by location as the marine
layer has largely mixed out to a partial CU deck beneath thinner
high cloud over the southern half of the area and held firm across
the north with greater proximity to the lake and more insulation
from insolation by increasingly opaque cirrus. Recent satellite
trends don't show much reason for optimism regarding potential for
clearing of stratus roughly north of m43, particularly as onshore
flow becomes more organized overnight. Potential for temps to fall
well into the 50s in the thumb may therefore be mitigated. Opted to
hold lows in the upper 50s low 60s across the board.

Lee cyclogenesis will culminate in a cyclone ejecting into the
eastern great plains by early Thursday. Nocturnal forcing and
increased isentropic ascent within a strengthening right entrance
region will contribute to showers and thunderstorms along and north
of the warm front well upstream. Locally, a plume of weak elevated
conditional instability within which convection is ongoing INVOF the
quad cities will stream into the area after midnight. Meager forcing
suggests minimal pops are in order, though isolated shower coverage
is not out of the question, particularly north of i-69, by daybreak.

Wing of isentropic ascent supporting disorganized showers and
possibly some remnant convective activity will be ushered north and
east of the area during the morning, perhaps hanging on in the thumb
into early afternoon. Attention then turns to lower-end potential
for convective initiation along the building instability gradient as
the warm sector overtakes southeast michigan coincident with
deepening surface low pressure translating toward southern
minnesota. Strong signal exists among the convection-allowing
guidance that the gradient will feature some degree of activity, but
waning shear with time, a poor instability profile to begin with,
and a lack of organized mesoscale forcing will tend to limit
potential to nothing more than a transient modest to strong
thunderstorm threat. Any marginal severe threat will likely remain
tied to the corridor of EHI max that will trail the warm front as it
lifts north.

Cwa remains in the warm sector until cold FROPA Friday afternoon.

Poor moisture quality and a relatively shallow conditionally
unstable layer will again limit convective potential. Nonetheless, a
cross-section from approx duluth to detroit reveals a a healthy,
deep tropospheric jet-front system whose defining characteristic is
a bulging 850-700mb nose that will contribute to a rapid transition
to steep boundary layer lapse rates and convective instability
within the frontal zone itself. Ambient wind field and post-frontal
conditions are not particularly impressive, but near-surface
dynamics and strong cold advection driving 292-300k isentropic
descent may be sufficient for a quick pop up to around 35 kts. Early
day highs in the upper 70s or low 80s will slowly fall through the
afternoon as 850mb temps tumble from the upper teens 12z Friday to
the single digits by 00z.

Final noteworthy modification to the week's forecast was to
drastically increase cloud cover for Saturday. As has been the case
with the last 2 cold fronts (including today), is clearly indicated
by nam12 forecast soundings, and is essentially autumn climatology
anyway, the clouds (or lack thereof) depicted by the blended grids
make little sense. The abundance sunshine has therefore been removed
for the first half of the weekend. Overcast stratus can be expected
for Saturday with the only question being if when it burns off and
subsequent impact on temps.

An expansive high pressure system will hold across the great lakes
region Saturday evening into Sunday, providing pleasant and dry
weather along with slightly below normal temperatures as daytime
highs hold in the 60s. A deepening trough located across the rockies
will break the zonal flow pattern across the great lakes and will
allow a warm front to push into michigan, noted by the increase in
h850 temperatures from 7c to 12c from Sunday morning into Monday
morning. The increase in warmer air will help push daytime high
temperatures back into the 70s for a high and will also provide
enough forcing for rain and thunderstorm chances as showalter
numbers turn neutral to slightly negative. Additionally, will have
the potential to see gusty conditions late Monday into Tuesday as
surface pressure gradient tightens in response to a strong high
pressure centered east of maine and a low pushing across northern
ontario. The ECMWF run also shows strong winds in the low-levels
with h850 SW flow ranging between 30 - 40 knots. However, GFS and
gem runs display a weaker wind field aloft and a relaxed pressure
gradient relative to the ecmwf, so holding off on highlighting
wind potential.

Rain and thunderstorm chances will persist into Wednesday as a cold
front pushes across michigan, however, confidence is low at this
time regarding timing and strength of front. Additional convergence
will be needed across model runs to pinpoint potential weather
threats with the passage of the front.

Marine...

light easterly marine wind continues tonight from high pressure over
northern ontario and while a front remains stalled over the ohio
valley. This front begins a northward move tonight as low pressure
organizes over the midwest and both features will support an
increase in showers and thunderstorms overnight through Thursday.

Worsening marine conditions also include increasing wind and waves
as the low strengthens over the northern great lakes. The system
will pull much warmer air across lower michigan and lake huron that
increases stability and limit wind gusts to some extent. The
exception could be greater gustiness through saginaw bay if boundary
layer mixing becomes established over land areas during Thursday
afternoon. Gusts to 30 knots will even be possible over the cooler
open waters of lake huron through Thursday night.

Once the low crosses the northern great lakes and continues into
ontario early Friday morning, an associated cold front will push
southeast through the central great lakes. The front will bring
veering winds to the northwest with considerably colder air
reversing the thermal profile to an unstable configuration. The
strength of the low likely supports a wind field capable of gusts
exceeding gale force over the open waters of lake huron and a gale
watch is now in effect Friday through Friday night. High pressure
then builds in quickly behind this system by Saturday and brings
improved marine conditions during the weekend.

Hydrology...

showers and thunderstorms will increase coverage and intensity,
mainly after sunrise Thursday, and continue through mid afternoon as
a warm front lifts northward through the region in response to low
pressure developing over the midwest. The warmer and more humid air
moving into the area with this front will supply enough moisture for
rainfall totals averaging around a half inch for the Thursday
period. Locally higher totals are more likely across the tri cities
and northern thumb where isolated rainfall amounts around 1 inch are
possible. While widely scattered showers or thunderstorms may occur
into Thursday afternoon and evening, the most significant activity
should shift north of the region with the warm front. The potential
for flooding is minimal with this activity, limited to ponding of
water on roads and minor flooding of poor drainage areas.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... Gale watch from Friday afternoon through late Friday night for
lhz441-462-463.

Gale watch from Friday morning through late Friday night for
lhz361>363.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Cb
discussion... Jvc
marine... ... .Bt
hydrology... .Bt
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45165 7 mi34 min ESE 7.8 G 9.7 69°F 74°F2 ft63°F
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 9 mi50 min SSE 2.9 G 5.1 67°F 1017.6 hPa61°F
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 9 mi44 min SE 15 G 16 71°F
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH 29 mi44 min ESE 19 G 20 70°F 1016.7 hPa (-1.3)
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH 37 mi50 min ESE 8 G 11 69°F 75°F1018.1 hPa59°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Monroe, Custer Airport, MI12 mi49 minN 010.00 miFair66°F64°F96%1017.6 hPa
Toledo - Toledo Executive Airport, OH17 mi51 minSE 410.00 miFair63°F59°F87%1017.4 hPa
Lambertville, Toledo Suburban Airport, MI17 mi49 minSSE 310.00 miFair66°F61°F86%1017.6 hPa
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI24 mi49 minNE 510.00 miFair62°F57°F87%1017.9 hPa

Wind History from TTF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN6NE5NE3E3SE3E3E4E4E5E6S10S7E3E6SE7E10E7E4CalmE8E7E5S6Calm
1 day agoCalmCalmW7W8W8CalmW3CalmW3W5
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2 days agoCalmNW3N6CalmCalmN4CalmE7CalmCalmSE4SE5SE7SE6SE4S6SE3CalmCalmS5W3W4W7Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.