Sunday, March26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
New Buffalo, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:37AMSunset 7:08PM Sunday March 26, 2017 3:50 PM CDT (20:50 UTC) Moonrise 6:00AMMoonset 5:39PM Illumination 1% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ046 NEw Buffalo Mi To St Joseph Mi-michigan City In To New Buffalo Mi- 349 Pm Edt Sun Mar 26 2017
Tonight..Southwest wind 5 to 15 knots. Cloudy. Chance of showers through midnight. Areas of fog after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Monday..Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots veering northeast 5 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Areas of fog in the morning. Rain likely in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Monday night..North wind 10 to 15 knots. Rain showers likely through midnight, then slight chance of showers after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tuesday..North wind 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy in the morning then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 3 to 5 feet. A small craft advisory may be needed. The water temperature off michigan city is 40 degrees...and 39 degrees off st. Joseph.
LMZ046 Expires:201703270415;;120285 FZUS53 KIWX 261949 NSHIWX NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST FOR INDIANA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 349 PM EDT SUN MAR 26 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKE MICHIGAN LMZ043-046-270415-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near New Buffalo, MI
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location: 41.79, -86.74     debug


Area Discussion for - Northern Indiana, IN
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Fxus63 kiwx 261941
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
341 pm edt Sun mar 26 2017

Synopsis
Issued at 325 pm edt Sun mar 26 2017
an upper level disturbance will continue to produce showers and
perhaps a few thunderstorms through early this evening. The
coverage of the rain showers will diminish later this evening,
with mainly dry conditions expected overnight into Monday morning.

Rain chances will increase once again later Monday afternoon and
Monday night as another system approaches from the west. An
isolated thunderstorm is also possible Monday night. Dry
conditions are then expected from Tuesday afternoon through
Wednesday evening before yet another storm system brings
increasing chances of rain for late Wednesday night through
Friday. Low temperatures tonight will range from the mid to upper
40s. High temperatures on Monday will range from the lower to mid
to upper 50s across southwest lower michigan, to the lower to mid
60s across northwest ohio.

Short term (this evening through Monday)
issued at 325 pm edt Sun mar 26 2017
agitated cyclonic flow will continue to result in likelihood of
showers with a few embedded thunderstorms this afternoon/early
evening. A lull in precip chances is then expected for later this
evening through Monday morning before precipitation chances ramp up
once again Monday afternoon/night.

A lead upper level short wave will continue to lift north-northeast
across the southern great lakes this afternoon. Rain showers have
diminished in coverage somewhat over past few hours to a more
scattered-numerous nature. Looking upstream, a smaller scale and
more compact upper vort MAX associated with parent upper level
circulation should work across northern indiana this evening. Weakly
confluent low flow/moisture convergence downstream of this vort max
should yield a weak instability axis across north central indiana
this afternoon. These factors should cause some enhancement to
shower and iso-sct tstorm coverage later this afternoon. Weak
instability will also be aided by differential temperature advection
as pocket of colder upper level air builds northward from the
ohio valley into far northeast indiana/northwest ohio. Will keep
likely rain shower/slight chance to chance thunder pops going
through early evening. Passage of this second vort MAX later this
evening should result in mainly dry conditions later this
evening/overnight with slow southeast sagging of frontal boundary
from mid ms valley across the southern great lakes. Did add
mention of some marine fog and across far northern locations later
tonight into early Monday, with some inland potential with fog in
closer proximity to this weak boundary.

Upper level short wave ridging will result in a mainly dry Monday
morning, but progressive nature to this pattern and fast approach of
next upper level short wave will allow for increasing isentropic
lift to develop from west to east Monday afternoon. Have continued
idea from previous forecast with west to east pop ramp up Monday,
particularly later Monday afternoon into Monday evening. Another
1 inch plus pwat axis will advect across the region Monday
afternoon via a modest 30-40 knot southwesterly low level jet.

Combination of column moisture on the higher end for late march
and approaching short wave should allow for expanding rain
coverage into Monday evening. Difficult to discount at least
isolated thunder potential particularly southern half of the area
given track of short wave and low level features. Given rainfall
of past few days, and potential for some convective rains Monday
evening, may need to monitor for some ponding/minor flood
potential.

Long term (Tuesday through Sunday)
issued at 325 pm edt Sun mar 26 2017
Monday night system will be departing the area Tuesday, with
gradual southward advance of drier low level air. Residual low
level moisture/inversion may be enough to prolong cloud cover a
bit longer than expected, with better chances of more widespread
decrease in cloud cover by Tuesday night/Wednesday as low level
drying and synoptic scale subsidence become more pronounced.

Latest guidance continues to support the idea of continued active
progression of short waves late week/next weekend in cut-off
pattern. Medium range guidance continues to advertise more
amplitude with Thursday short wave, which may allow trowal feature
to prolong rain chances for much of Thursday-Friday. Forecast
soundings do suggest perhaps a low end potential of a very brief
period of wintry mix at precip onset early Thursday, but with
large low level dew point depressions during this brief period of
wintry mix potential, will keep precip as all rain. Temps are
expected to remain at or above seasonable norms through next
weekend.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Monday afternoon)
issued at 139 pm edt Sun mar 26 2017
ifr conditions to slowly improve, at least for a short period, as
mixing occurs with northward moving frontal boundary. Scattered
showers expected at both sites the remainder of the afternoon.

Chance of thunder exists mainly at kfwa where colder air aloft
will help with instability. Have left out of TAF for now given
expected isolated nature.

Inversion will take hold tonight and likely allow for stratus
development again with low end MVFR into ifr conditions expected
late evening into much of tomorrow as low pressure tracks
overhead.

Iwx watches/warnings/advisories
In... None.

Mi... None.

Oh... None.

Lm... None.

Synopsis... Marsili
short term... Marsili
long term... Marsili
aviation... Fisher
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 10 mi51 min SSE 6 G 6 57°F 56°F
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 24 mi71 min SSW 14 G 22 59°F 1010.2 hPa
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 42 mi51 min SW 11 G 17 60°F 1008.9 hPa (-0.8)53°F
JAKI2 44 mi111 min W 13 61°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 45 mi51 min SSE 6 G 8 54°F 54°F
CNII2 46 mi36 min SSW 7 G 9.9 60°F
OKSI2 48 mi111 min ENE 1.9 47°F
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 49 mi71 min SE 8 G 9.9 55°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Last
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NW7
NW11
G16
NW14
G18
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E5
E8
G11
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E5
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1 day
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SW12
G23
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NW25
G32
NW19
G26
NW15
G20
N10
G17
NW11
G14
NW12
G23
N14
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G16
NW12
G18
NW11
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NW10
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NW11
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G15
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G17
N9
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N7
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2 days
ago
S13
G21
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G16
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G18
SE12
G17
SE9
G15
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G13
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G14
S7
G11
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G8
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SE5
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G7
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G10
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G13
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G20
S12
G19
S12
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S8
G18
S18
G24
S18
G25
SW18
G30
SW10
G23
SW14
G25

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Michigan City Municipal Airport, IN7 mi76 minS 610.00 miLight Rain55°F55°F100%1010.2 hPa
Sound Bend - South Bend International Airport, IN23 mi57 minS 310.00 miLight Rain55°F0°F%1010.8 hPa

Wind History from MGC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE6E4E6SE7
G14
E6E7
G14
SE11
G14
E5E6E6E5E4E5SE6SE5E3SE5SE3SE4CalmSW7
G11
S3S7S5
1 day agoSW15
G27
S18
G30
SW15
G23
N11
G16
N4CalmCalmNW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4E3CalmCalmNE3E5E6E4E6E6E7
2 days agoSE6S10
G14
SE7SE8S3CalmS8
G15
S7S4S6S3SE5S5S9S16
G23
S14
G21
S14
G19
SW15
G25
S14
G22
SW17
G28
SW16
G22
SW17
G26
SW20
G31
SW16
G25

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Northern Indiana, IN (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northern Indiana, IN
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.