Monday, June25, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
New Buffalo, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:12AMSunset 8:27PM Monday June 25, 2018 2:48 AM CDT (07:48 UTC) Moonrise 6:12PMMoonset 3:37AM Illumination 90% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ046 Michigan City In To New Buffalo Mi- 950 Pm Edt Sun Jun 24 2018
Overnight..East wind 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Areas of fog. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday..East wind 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Monday night..Southeast wind 10 to 15 knots. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..South wind 10 to 15 knots. Showers and Thunderstorms likely. Waves 1 to 2 feet. The water temperature off michigan city is 58 degrees...and 54 degrees off st. Joseph.
LMZ046 Expires:201806251015;;066971 FZUS53 KIWX 250150 NSHIWX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Indiana National Weather Service Northern Indiana 950 PM EDT Sun Jun 24 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ046-251015-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near New Buffalo, MI
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location: 41.79, -86.74     debug


Area Discussion for - Northern Indiana, IN
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Fxus63 kiwx 250520
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
120 am edt Mon jun 25 2018

Synopsis
Issued at 335 pm edt Sun jun 24 2018
an isolated shower is possible this evening across south central
lower michigan and far northwest ohio, but otherwise dry
conditions are expected from tonight through later Monday night.

The next system to affect the area will be Tuesday and Wednesday
when some locally heavy rain is possible along with a potential of
a few strong storms. Dry weather will return for Wednesday night,
but heat and humidity will build for Thursday and Friday. Low
temperatures tonight will range from the mid 50s to lower 60s.

High temperatures on Monday will range from the mid 70s across
south central lower michigan to the lower 80s across west central
indiana.

Short term (this evening through Monday)
issued at 335 pm edt Sun jun 24 2018
large scale cyclonic flow continues across the great lakes region
this afternoon. Water vapor imagery indicates a well defined vort
max headed across western lake erie vicinity which appears to be
associated with more concentrated area of rain showers across
southern lake huron. While not as evident on satellite imagery,
model initializations do suggest presence of another upstream
vort across southern and central lake michigan which will slowly
drop southeast across the region tonight. Combination and
progression of these two perturbations will drive another low
level trough axis southward late this afternoon into this evening.

Visible satellite imagery starting to indicate a more well
developed CU field forming from kalamazoo to toledo. Modification
of earlier amdar sounding across the northeast suggests minimal
instability on the order of 200-400 j kg. Instability likely a bit
more substantial for locations along route 30 corridor, although
forcing will be lacking until upstream lake michigan vort max
slowly sags southeast into this evening. Previous forecast of
slight chance low chance pops across the east northeast through
early evening still appear to be on track and not expecting to
make major changes.

Low rain chances will diminish after 00z with loss of diurnal
instability given weak nature to mid upper level forcing.

Otherwise, just some increased clouds across the east to persist
into this evening with vort passage before mainly mostly clear
skies for remainder of the night. A punch of dry low level air to
build across the region later tonight in wake of low level trough
this evening, which will allow mins tonight into the mid 50s to
lower 60s.

Upper riding and associated sfc anticylcone to build across the
region on Monday with any shower activity remaining well south of
the forecast area. Near seasonable temps are expected with continued
low humidity levels.

Long term (Monday night through Sunday)
issued at 335 pm edt Sun jun 24 2018
late Monday night will mark the beginning of another active weather
period that will continue through Wednesday. A slow moving upper
level low will approach the region from the central plains. Guidance
is in general consensus of lead short wave kicking out of larger
negative height anomaly early Tuesday. Some question as to how
upstream nocturnal convection would be maintained into local area
for first part of Tuesday given initially meager instability
profiles, although advective forcing will be on the increase early
Tuesday. Mid levels somewhat on the warm side raising some questions
as to extent of destabilization on Tuesday, and a good deal of
uncertainty exists with how overnight storms will modify environment
for Tuesday. Latest 12z suite of guidance would suggest greatest
severe potential probably remaining just west of local area in pre-
frontal trough type environment closer to better mid upper level
support across mid ms valley. May have to watch for some strong severe
threat into at least western portions of the area later Tuesday
afternoon evening as shear profiles will be on the increase with a
50 knot 500 mb speed MAX approaching. Again, the main
uncertainties for severe potential are possible unfavorable
diurnal timing to strongest forcing and instability magnitude
uncertainty.

Potential for heaviest rain would appear to be Tuesday night into
possibly early Wednesday as pre-frontal trough moves in with
respectable 1.75-2 inch pwats in place. There should be at least
some decent progression with primary upper level low however, which
may alleviate higher end heavy rain concerns. With recent heavy
rainfall across portions of the area, did consider an esf this
afternoon to highlight Tue Wed flood potential, but will defer to
later shifts with still a good deal of uncertainty how
timing instability will play out.

Conditions dry out for Wednesday night and Thursday with the main
weather story beyond this point on building heat. Medium range
models have been fairly consistent in ridge amplification with
larger uncertainty to what extent to dampen the ridge later next
weekend with next larger scale wave working across the northern tier
of conus. Heat indices in excess of 100 are at least a possibility
for portions of the fri-sun period. With uncertainties in timing
this next upper wave next weekend, and several different solutions
on extent of ridge suppression, will keep the post-wed night
period dry.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Monday night)
issued at 117 am edt Mon jun 25 2018
vfr prevailing conditions expected for the 06z TAF cycle. There
does remain a chance for a MVFR stratus deck to form at the
terminals in the 10-12z time frame, but confidence is too low to
go prevailing. Otherwise, surface winds will slowly shift out of
the east and southeast over the first 12 hours of this TAF cycle.

Iwx watches warnings advisories
In... None.

Mi... None.

Oh... None.

Lm... None.

Synopsis... Marsili
short term... Marsili
long term... Marsili
aviation... Cm
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 10 mi49 min NE 9.9 G 12 60°F
45170 12 mi29 min E 5.8 G 7.8 62°F 65°F2 ft62°F
45026 - St. Joseph, MI 15 mi29 min NNW 5.8 G 5.8 61°F 61°F1 ft1018.8 hPa58°F
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 24 mi49 min NE 8 G 11 63°F 1019 hPa (-0.0)
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 25 mi109 min Calm G 0 62°F 1018.6 hPa (+0.7)
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 42 mi49 min N 4.1 G 7 62°F 1018.4 hPa (-0.0)62°F
JAKI2 44 mi109 min NNE 7 G 12 63°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 45 mi49 min N 9.9 G 11 61°F 60°F
CNII2 46 mi34 min NNW 8 G 12 61°F 58°F
45168 47 mi29 min ENE 3.9 G 3.9 63°F 62°F1 ft1019.2 hPa58°F
45177 47 mi169 min 67°F1 ft
OKSI2 48 mi109 min Calm G 1 62°F
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 49 mi49 min ENE 5.1 G 6 64°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Michigan City Municipal Airport, IN7 mi54 minN 00.50 miFog61°F60°F100%1018.6 hPa
South Bend International Airport, IN23 mi55 minN 010.00 miFair64°F61°F90%1018.4 hPa

Wind History from MGC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4W5N8N7N7N7N6N4N6N8N5N3N5CalmN3N3CalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmW3N3NW3CalmCalmNW4W4W6NW8NW4NW6N4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3
2 days agoE5E4E6E4E5E3E4E3NE3E6E7NE7NE7CalmNW6CalmCalmCalmN3N3CalmCalmCalmN3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Northern Indiana, IN (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northern Indiana, IN
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.