Thursday, June20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
New Buffalo, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 5:11AMSunset 8:27PM Thursday June 20, 2019 12:59 AM CDT (05:59 UTC) Moonrise 11:09PMMoonset 8:08AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LMZ046 Michigan City In To New Buffalo Mi- 1008 Pm Edt Wed Jun 19 2019
Overnight..North wind 5 to 15 knots. Showers and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Thursday..North wind 10 to 15 knots. Showers in the morning. Slight chance of Thunderstorms through the day. Chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Thursday night..Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots backing west after midnight. Partly cloudy through midnight then becoming mostly clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..Southeast wind 5 knots backing east in the afternoon. Mostly Sunny in the morning then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet. The water temperature off michigan city is 56 degrees...and 59 degrees off st. Joseph.
LMZ046 Expires:201906201015;;760942 FZUS53 KIWX 200208 NSHIWX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Indiana National Weather Service Northern Indiana 1008 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ046-201015-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near New Buffalo, MI
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 41.79, -86.74     debug


Area Discussion for - Northern Indiana, IN
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus63 kiwx 192302
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
702 pm edt Wed jun 19 2019

Synopsis
Issued at 400 pm edt Wed jun 19 2019
showers and storms will increase in coverage through tonight. Heavy
rain and flooding are possible with one to two inches expected for
most locations... And isolated higher amounts possible. Rain tapers
off late Thursday afternoon but additional rain and storms are
possible over the weekend into early next week as wet pattern
continues.

Short term (this evening through Thursday)
issued at 400 pm edt Wed jun 19 2019
sct convection firing across the cwa... Mainly along a subtle
convergent boundary draped n-s across the area... Given very moist
and marginally unstable conditions. Convective coverage expected to
increase through the evening... Particularly as warm moist air
advection increases ahead of the approaching trough. SPC rap
mesoanalysis shows MLCAPE values 500-1000 j kg with marginal deep
layer shear. Generally all severe parameters (including forcing) are
marginal and low level flow is very weak but precip loading could
support a few isolated wind gusts in the 40-50 mph range through the
early evening hours.

Biggest concern is still heavy rain flooding though. Weak flow and
deep warm cloud layers has and will continue to support efficient
rainfall production despite waning instability overnight. Already
seeing inch hour rates with convection this afternoon. Biggest
driver for precip tonight Thu will be impressive synoptic support as
very robust shortwave approaches the area aided by coupled upper
level jet streaks. Low midlevel deformation fgen light up late
tonight into Thu and take full advantage of relatively moist airmass
with pw values near 1.75 inches. Biggest change to previous
forecasts was a northward adjustment in track of this wave and
associated zone of best deformation. Anticipate nearly entire cwa
will see moderate rain (around an inch) with isolated pockets of up
to 3. Several of the latest hi-res models showing QPF bulls-eye near
sbn with pivoting deformation band. Central CWA has been relatively
dry but our NW zones are more susceptible. Given track of best
synoptic forcing... Decided to expand flash flood watch to the entire
area.

Long term (Thursday night through Wednesday)
issued at 400 pm edt Wed jun 19 2019
with primary hazards in short term and low confidence in convective
trends over the weekend... Did not make too many edits to concensus
initialization. Still think majority of Friday will be dry though
latest models do indicate some potential for MCS to clip our far sw
counties. Better chances arrive Friday night into Sat as theta-e
plume finally works into cwa. Best chances will be late
weekend early next week as next, higher amplitude trough approaches
but timing is highly uncertain. Previous disclaimer to focus on pop
trends instead of exact timing remains valid, good advice.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Thursday evening)
issued at 650 pm edt Wed jun 19 2019
complicated forecast for the period. Bottom line up
front... Extensive area of ifr lifr expected overnight as moisture
continues to stream into the area. Isentropic lift ascent area
extends from central indiana into southern michigan through 12 15
utc. Steady ascent and abundan moisture will favor rainfall and
bands of convection. Heaviest rainfall concentrated along and
south of a krzl-kdfi line. North of the line... Expect less
convective development and expect to have fog develop by day
break.

Conditions to improve after 15z with MVFR conditions south andVFR
conditions north. Later in the TAF period expect to see fog
develop again and could see widespread ifr lifr conditions after
00z Thursday.

Iwx watches warnings advisories
In... Flash flood watch through Thursday afternoon for inz003>009-
012>018-020-022>027-032>034.

Mi... Flash flood watch through Thursday afternoon for miz077>081.

Oh... Flash flood watch through Thursday afternoon for ohz001-002-004-
005-015-016-024-025.

Lm... None.

Synopsis... Agd
short term... Agd
long term... Agd
aviation... Lewis
visit us at

Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 10 mi39 min N 9.9 G 11 58°F 58°F
45170 12 mi29 min N 9.7 G 12 58°F 61°F3 ft58°F
45026 - St. Joseph, MI 15 mi29 min N 7.8 G 9.7 61°F 61°F2 ft1002.8 hPa58°F
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 24 mi79 min N 5.1 G 6 55°F 1004.4 hPa
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 25 mi59 min NNE 5.1 G 8.9 62°F 1004.4 hPa (+0.0)
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 42 mi59 min NNW 13 G 20 54°F 1003.3 hPa (-1.1)54°F
JAKI2 44 mi119 min N 15 G 26 56°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 45 mi39 min N 22 G 24 53°F 52°F
CNII2 46 mi29 min NW 15 G 16 54°F 51°F
45168 47 mi29 min NNE 9.7 G 12 63°F 61°F2 ft1003.2 hPa60°F
OKSI2 48 mi119 min ENE 4.1 G 8 56°F
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 49 mi39 min NNE 8 G 8.9 65°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
Last
24hr
S2
SW1
--
--
SW1
N2
N1
NE4
NE4
N8
N7
N9
N9
G13
N11
N10
G16
N11
G17
N9
G13
N10
G15
N11
G15
NW11
G17
N8
G11
N9
G13
NW8
G14
N13
G20
1 day
ago
NE3
N2
N2
N1
N2
N3
N3
N4
NE5
NE3
NE4
NE4
NE6
NE6
NE5
G8
NE5
NE5
E4
NE4
E4
E3
G6
E3
E3
--
2 days
ago
NW8
G11
NW6
G10
N5
G8
N6
G9
N7
NW9
G13
N8
G11
N5
G11
N7
G11
N8
N8
G11
N10
N7
N7
N8
N5
N4
N5
NE4
NE4

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Michigan City Municipal Airport, IN7 mi64 minN 05.00 miRain59°F51°F77%1003.7 hPa
South Bend International Airport, IN23 mi65 minNNE 47.00 miOvercast65°F64°F100%1002.5 hPa

Wind History from MGC (wind in knots)
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3NW3N7N6N8NE8N8
G15
N7N6N5N6N7N6N4N4CalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmN3NW3N6NW5NW5N4N6N3N3NW3N3CalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmW3CalmCalmW3NW3N4N4NW3N6N3CalmCalmNW4CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Northern Indiana, IN (1,6,7,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Northern Indiana, IN
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.