Sunrise 5:36 AM   Sunset 7:52 PM Moonrise 4:13 AM   Moonset 5:09 PM

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LMZ046 Expires:202405051415;;651892 Fzus53 Kiwx 050751 Nshiwx
nearshore marine forecast national weather service northern indiana 351 am edt Sun may 5 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore on lake michigan
lmz043-046-051415- new buffalo mi to st joseph mi-michigan city in to new buffalo mi- 351 am edt Sun may 5 2024
Today - Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming north. Mostly cloudy this morning, then becoming mostly Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Tonight - North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming light and variable. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Monday - East winds 10 knots or less. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less. Monday night - East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
the water temperature at st. Joseph is 50 degrees and at michigan city is 50 degrees.

LMZ005
No data

FXUS63 KIWX 050921 AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 521 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Mostly dry today into Monday night, with only low chances for showers and thunderstorms south of US 24 Monday afternoon and evening. Severe weather is not expected. Highs will range from 55 near Lake Michigan into the 60s and 70s inland today, then warm up slightly on Monday into the upper 60s and 70s.

- There is potential for severe weather Tuesday into Tuesday evening. Damaging winds, large hail, and heavy rain will be the primary threats with any storms. Chances for stronger storms may return Wednesday evening into Thursday morning, but confidence is low.

- Cooler with chances for showers and storms this weekend. Highs will be in the 60s, with lows in the 40s and low 50s. Severe weather is not expected.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 507 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024

Dry conditions will prevail through Monday afternoon, with surface high pressure and weak mid level ridging aloft. There is potential for showers and storms south of US 24 Monday afternoon as a shortwave ripples through the flow aloft, but much of the higher-res guidance available keeps the precipitation further south. Lowered pops slightly from yesterday, sticking around 20-30 percent at maximum around 18-21z, then tapering off shortly after sunset.
Otherwise, expect decreasing clouds today with quite the temperature gradient. Highs north of US 24 will range from 55 to 65, then along and south of US 24 highs will be in the mid to upper 60s and low 70s (warmest near Lima, OH; coldest near Lake Michigan). Highs on Monday will be in the upper 60s and low to mid 70s. Lows will be in the 40s and 50s.

The storm prediction center has most of our CWA in a slight risk for severe weather on day 3 (Tue into Tue Evening), which is reasonable given the latest model guidance. There are still differences in the event specifics, but generally expect a surface low to develop in response to a broad upper low in the northern plains Tuesday, lifting a warm front through during the afternoon. The low will occlude as it lifts ENE, bringing the cold front in Tuesday evening. Where the exact sfc low develops tracks is not for certain beyond it moving through the Great Lakes region. The NAM has the low further northwest, and is slightly slower than the GFS/ECMWF/GEM to start (fastest to move precipitation out),however all have the warm front lifting across from SW to NE from roughly 12z Tue to 00z Wed, with the occluding front/cold front shifting across the south and east through about 21z Tue-03z Wed. Split the difference for pops, with chances beginning in the SW around 12z, then increasing to widespread for the afternoon/evening. Kept low-end chances for late Tuesday night in the event the slower exiting model solutions are correct.

As far as severe weather is concerned, if things work out as models suggest as of this writing, think we have a decent shot. As far as ingredients go, it looks like we'll have decent moisture transport in the low/mid levels with flow off the gulf of mexico on a decent LLJ. PWATS end up around 1.4 to 1.6, which is about 200 percent of normal for this time of year. Obviously with the warm front lifting northward in the morning we could see some marginal severe weather- likely hail, as we have mid level lapse rates around 6-7C (8C if the GFS is correct!). Towards the afternoon hours we build our surface instability to around 1500-2400 J/kg, and 0-6 km bulk shear magnitudes are in the 55 to 75 knot range (Depends on the model); which is plenty to work with as far as severe weather is concerned- so the probability of all threats increases into the afternoon and evening. The best chances will probably be closer to 00z as we get the increase in shear around sunset and the cold front is progressing eastward/occluding. This certainly warrants watching over the next couple of days. Highs on Tuesday will reach into the mid to upper 70s, with lows in the 50s and 60s.

BUT WAIT! THERE'S MORE! Models are starting to suggest an additional surface low moving through the CWA after a lull in precipitation chances from Wednesday morning. This low develops in the central plains Wed AM and lifts ENE into IN/OH by Thursday morning, exiting the forecast area into the Lower Great Lakes by Thu Evening (00z Fri). Once again, plenty of moisture to work with, with an even better moisture transport off the gulf than the Tuesday system. The warm front lifts up through Wed evening, with the cold front (and the low pressure center) overhead by around 6-12z Thu. Again the 0-6 km bulk shear is on the order of 50-70 knots at times Wed afternoon into Thursday, with possibly as much as 1000 J/kg of CAPE (depends on the model). It is possible that the best storms stay south of our area, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a few strong/severe ones (mainly along/south of US 30) with the cold front as the system moves overhead (or just north). SPC has our area in a Day 4 outlook for severe potential, but it's low confidence at this point being further out and dependent on the earlier convection that day/exact low placement.

The upper low settles overhead for the weekend, so we see continued low-mid range chances for showers and storms, in addition to cooler temperatures. Highs will be in the 60s, warming closer to 70 by Monday. Lows will be in the 40s and low 50s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
Issued at 521 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024

Post-frontal stratocu, generally in the IFR-MVFR range, should improve to VFR by early this afternoon thanks to diurnal mixing and ongoing low level dry advection. Steady northwest winds near 8-10 knots otherwise through the day.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

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