Monday, June26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
East Providence, RI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:10AMSunset 8:26PM Monday June 26, 2017 3:08 PM EDT (19:08 UTC) Moonrise 8:07AMMoonset 10:36PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ236 Narragansett Bay- 116 Pm Edt Mon Jun 26 2017
This afternoon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming W around 5 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Thu..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 116 Pm Edt Mon Jun 26 2017
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Weak cold fronts will move into the waters this evening and again Tue evening. High pres builds south of the waters Wed. A warm front will lift north through new eng Thu with gusty sw winds developing late Thu into Fri. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near East Providence, RI
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location: 41.8, -71.38     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 261904
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service taunton ma
304 pm edt Mon jun 26 2017

Synopsis
Additional upper level disturbances move across new england
early tonight and later Tuesday, bringing a few showers and
isolated thunderstorms. The greater threat will be on Tuesday.

A warming trend begins for the latter half of the week with a
return to summer heat and humidity Friday and Saturday. A warm
front may bring some showers Thursday night with more showers
and thunderstorms possible Friday through the weekend.

Near term through tonight
Scattered showers and isolated thunder will be possible through
the evening as a weak shortwave passes to our north. Stability
parameters are marginal for thunder, but enough to include a
mention. Best chance will be in areas north of the mass pike.

Convection diminishes early tonight. Expect quiet weather
overnight. Of note, the GFS develops an area of showers around
midnight between washington and philadelphia, then moves it up
through nyc into southern new england by 12z. The ECMWF and nam
show nothing, as does the SPC hrrr. The ggem shows nothing to
our south but develops a few hundredths over southern ct by 12z.

Inclination is to treat the GFS pcpn as an outlier.

Dew points in the 50s again tonight, so expect similar min
temps... 50s and lower 60s.

Short term Tuesday through Tuesday night
Sharp shortwave over the great lakes today moves through the
cyclonic flow. One part ejects across ny and northern new
england Tuesday afternoon evening, while the main portion
crosses our area late Tuesday night or Wednesday morning.

We remain on the edge of the cold pool Tuesday, but close enough
to expect mid level lapse rates of 6.5 to 7c km during the
afternoon and early night. Going along with this will be totals
in the lower 50s and LI values below zero, as well as sbcape
values of 500-1000 j kg. Theta-e values show a ridge over ct
during the afternoon evening. Expect scattered showers tstms
during the afternoon and early night.

Winds aloft show some support for a few strong or damaging
storms. Winds at 850 mb will be 20-30 knots during Tuesday
afternoon, although this is forecast to move offshore by
evening. Winds at 500 mb are forecast at 50-60 knots during
Tuesday afternoon, but also move offshore by evening. Timing of
this wind and of the shower TSTM development may be the
determining factor in how strong these storms may get. The mixed
layer is expected to reach near 850 mb, where winds as noted
above will be 20 to 30 knots. Our forecast includes gusts on the
lower half of that range, but slightly higher values are
possible.

With the main shortwave moving through during Tuesday night, and
with the upper cold pool moving overhead, expect a continued
chance of showers storms Tuesday night.

If mixing reaches 850 mb it will work on temps of 8-10c, which
suggests MAX sfc temps of 75 to 80. If mixing GOES a little
higher, such as to 800 mb, then MAX sfc temps would be more
centered around 80. No change in the airmass Tuesday night
compared with tonight, so expect similar min temps.

Long term Wednesday through Monday
Highlights...

* pleasant Wednesday with low risk of a shower
* heat and humidity return Friday into Sunday
* thunderstorm chances increase Thursday night through Sunday
pattern details...

00z guidance is in general agreement synoptically with some
difference in strength and timing for each wave late in the week.

Upper level trough will move through the flow Tuesday night with
southern new england on the backside Wednesday. Quasi-zonal flow
will set-up across the region on Thursday with the flow with
becoming more amplified by the weekend. Resulting in a broad trough
over the great lakes and another trough over the mountain west with
weak ridge between the two. Because the flow is becoming more
amplified, sub-tropical ridge is also building closer to the region
late in the weekend. Ridging out west by Sunday will push the great
lakes trough towards the northeast for early next week.

Details...

Wednesday...

trough axis will be offshore by Wednesday putting southern new
england in weak northwest flow. Depending on how quickly precip
moves offshore, Tuesday night may be quite pleasant with
temperatures in the low to mid 50s with low humidity.

Mid level shortwave and assocd mid level cooling which brought
the showers and t-storms to sne last night has lifted to the ne.

Weak subsidence behind this wave will maintain dry conditions
through the morning. Another weak shortwave approaches from the
sw this afternoon and will bring a few showers and isold
t-storms, mainly interior. Sbcapes are marginal, 200-400 j kg,
and 500 mb temps are actually warming slightly today which
should result in limited coverage of convection. Mainly dry in
ri and SE ma as rather dry air in the mid levels along with
very low ki values near the coast will likely keep any showers
and t-storms to the north and west so we have dry conditions
here.

850 mb temps around 10-11c will result in MAX temps in the
upper 70s to lower 80s. Comfortable humidity levels with
dewpoints down in the upper 40s and lower 50s.

Surface high pressure will slide into the area on Wednesday as
ridging builds a loft. Steep lapse rates with some moisture in the
mid-levels will help develop diurnal CU by the afternoon. Mixing up
to 750 mb will result in temperatures in the upper 70s with breezy
westerly flow near 20-25 mph. Guidance shows very little QPF on
Wednesday, but cannot rule out a few pop-up showers by the late
afternoon hours. While confidence is higher north of the region,
southern new england will see instability values above 500 j kg with
k values above 25c. This may be enough for a spot shower.

Winds aloft will begin to turn more to the southwest by Wednesday
night with waa. Overnight lows will remain around 60.

Thursday...

dry day to start as high pressure will slide south of the region.

The flow will turn more active with zonal flow aloft and a few weak
waves passing through. Impressive warming aloft as surface warm
front pushes through the region. This will push southern new england
in the warm sector resulting in increasingly warm and humid
temperatures.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are anticipate by the latest
guidance suggests not until the evening hours as mid-levels will
remain quite dry. A weak shortwave moves through the flow Thursday
evening night. With zonal flow and both 850mb isotherms and winds
becoming parallel, appears that anything the fires across upstate ny
will ride through the flow moving into the area. In fact, guidance
is indicating a lingering MCS will move through the flow overnight
which could result in a few strong storms, ESP north of the pike.

This region has the best area of instability and 0-6 km shear
values. Still uncertainty on where this will set-up as it could
still move north of the region, or south. Something to watch over
the upcoming week.

Friday into Sunday...

unsettled weather patter for this time period as southern new
england remains in the warm sector with heat and humidity. With 850
mb temps near 2 std above normal, appears that the potential for 90
degrees returns on Friday and Saturday. Back door cold front appears
to remain well north of the region per latest GFS and ec. Thus have
gone above guidance for Saturday temps. Heat headlines may be
needed.

Chance for showers and thunderstorms each day, but difficult to place
the exact timing and location of any strong storms. Regardless, the
potential for strong to severe weather appears possible through the
period as frontal boundary lingers north of the region. One caveat
to watch is the subtropical ridge. If this ridge moves closer, it
may keep portions of the area dry.

Aviation 18z Monday through Saturday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Tuesday night ... High confidence.

This evening and tonight...

vfr. Scattered to broken cumulus with bases 5000-6000 feet.

Scattered showers and isold t-storms in the interior, mainly
along north of the mass pike. Showers and tstms should diminish
during the early night.

Tuesday...

vfr. Scattered to broken cumulus with bases 5000-6000 feet.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected from midday through
the first part of Tuesday night. Showers and storms may bring
briefly lower conditions, mainly vsbys 3-5 miles in heavier
showers. Southwest winds will gust to at least 20 knots and
possibly as high as 30 knots.

Kbos terminal... High confidence in taf.

Kbdl terminal... High confidence in taf.

Outlook Wednesday through Saturday ...

Wednesday... High confidence. MainlyVFR. NW gusts to 20 kts.

Thursday... Moderate confidence. MainlyVFR. Afternoon showers
possible in the interior with showers t-storms possible all sne thu
night. Gusty SW winds to 25-30 kt developing, especially coastal
plain.

Friday... Moderate confidence. Patchy early morning fog, with local
MVFR. ThenVFR, except local ifr in possible strong thunderstorms,
mainly during the afternoon and evening hours.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Tuesday night ... High confidence.

Winds and seas mostly below small craft advisory thresholds
through the period with SW flow. A few gusts to 20 knots
expected with potential for a few gusts to 25 knots especially
nearshore.

Outlook Wednesday through Saturday ...

Wednesday... High confidence. Quiet boating weather with winds and
seas below sca. Gusts to 20 kt possible nearshore waters.

Thursday... Moderate confidence. Small craft advisories will likely
be needed. Increasing SW winds with gusts to 25+ kt likely,
especially over nearshore waters. Building seas may reach 6 to 8 ft
over southern waters Thu night.

Friday... Moderate confidence. SW winds continue, mainly 20-25 kt
with building seas. Scattered thunderstorms, some with reduced
visibilities and strong gusty winds.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Wtb dunten
near term... Wtb dunten
short term... Wtb
long term... Dunten
aviation... Wtb dunten
marine... Wtb dunten


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 1 mi51 min NW 4.1 G 14 79°F 69°F1013.9 hPa
PVDR1 1 mi51 min WNW 5.1 G 8.9 76°F 1014.4 hPa50°F
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 6 mi51 min SSE 15 G 17 72°F 73°F1014.8 hPa
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 11 mi51 min SW 6 G 13
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 11 mi84 min SSW 5.1 75°F 1015 hPa58°F
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 13 mi51 min 77°F 72°F1015.5 hPa
FRXM3 13 mi51 min 76°F 55°F
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 13 mi51 min S 8 G 12 74°F 1014.1 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 15 mi51 min SSW 15 G 17
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 21 mi51 min SSW 16 G 19 69°F 65°F1015.2 hPa
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 33 mi69 min SW 13 G 13 65°F 1016.2 hPa (+0.0)
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 42 mi51 min 67°F 68°F1015.6 hPa
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 42 mi51 min 75°F 1013.2 hPa
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 48 mi84 min 4.1 73°F 1016 hPa56°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 48 mi51 min SW 8.9 G 13 78°F 64°F1015.2 hPa

Wind History for Providence, RI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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W11
G22
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S18
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N3
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NW17
G21
NW15
G19

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Providence, Theodore Francis Green State Airport, RI6 mi78 minVar 610.00 miPartly Cloudy77°F51°F40%1014.9 hPa
Newport, Newport State Airport, RI19 mi76 minSSW 8 G 1610.00 miFair73°F54°F51%1015.2 hPa
Taunton, Taunton Municipal Airport, MA20 mi77 minWNW 710.00 miMostly Cloudy78°F48°F36%1014.6 hPa
New Bedford, New Bedford Regional Airport, MA23 mi76 minW 5 G 1510.00 miA Few Clouds77°F53°F43%1014.8 hPa

Wind History from PVD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW10SW11NW16
G26
SW5S5SW8SW11W6NW5N6NW5NW7W4W4W5W5W8NW10N10
G16
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NW10SW864
1 day agoW14
G20
NW10
G15
NW8
G21
W14W7W5SW3W4W5W5SW3W4W5W5W4W6W73W9SW4SW10S9
G14
SE12W8
2 days agoS11
G19
SW19
G25
SW15
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S11SW10SW10SW7SW8S9SW8SW10SW8SW10SW11SW8CalmS5W8
G14
NW7W8NW12

Tide / Current Tables for Providence, State Pier no.1, Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island
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Providence
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:41 AM EDT     -0.38 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:12 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:07 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:41 AM EDT     5.70 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:44 PM EDT     -0.43 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:35 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 11:04 PM EDT     6.01 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.52.70.9-0.2-0.3-00.312.345.45.64.731.2-0.1-0.40.10.81.42.545.46

Tide / Current Tables for Conimicut Light, Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island
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Conimicut Light
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:42 AM EDT     -0.34 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:12 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:07 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:37 AM EDT     5.29 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:38 PM EDT     -0.30 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:35 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 11:01 PM EDT     5.57 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.12.30.7-0.2-0.3-0.10.312.33.95.15.24.32.60.9-0.1-0.30.20.81.52.43.855.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.