Wednesday, May23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Stony Point, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 6:03AMSunset 8:56PM Wednesday May 23, 2018 6:31 AM EDT (10:31 UTC) Moonrise 1:47PMMoonset 2:13AM Illumination 61% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ162 Lake Erie Open Waters From Ripley To Buffalo Ny- Lake Erie Open Waters From Maumee Bay To Reno Beach Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Reno Beach To The Islands Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From The Islands To Vermilion Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Vermilion To Avon Point Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Avon Point To Willowick Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on-the-lake Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Geneva-on-the-lake To Conneaut Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 352 Am Edt Wed May 23 2018
Today..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..Southwest winds 10 knots or less. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.
Thursday..Light and variable winds. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday night..South winds 10 knots or less. Waves 1 foot or less.
Friday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms Saturday night. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 foot or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LEZ162 Expires:201805231415;;392956 FZUS61 KCLE 230752 GLFLE Open Lake Forecast for Lake Erie National Weather Service Cleveland OH 352 AM EDT Wed May 23 2018 For waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on Lake Erie Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...High pressure 30.20 inches will build east across the Great Lakes today through Thursday, moving east off the Mid Atlantic Coast by Friday. A warm front will lift north across the lake Friday night into Saturday. Low pressure 29.90 inches will move east across the northern Lakes Sunday and Monday, bringing a cold front across Lake Erie by Monday night. LEZ061-162>169-231415-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Stony Point, MI
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location: 41.8, -83.08     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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Fxus61 kcle 230753
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
353 am edt Wed may 23 2018

Synopsis
High pressure from the western great lakes will move across the area
today through Thursday and then off the east coast on Friday. A
weak warm front will develop over the midwest and move to the lower
great lakes this weekend and become nearly stationary.

Near term through Thursday
Lingering stratocumulus and stratus should dissipate or transition
to fair weather cumulus pretty quickly this morning as mixing
and subsidence increases - model soundings show it to be quite
dry aloft. Fog across lower mi will expand into western lucas
county as well as wood county and possibly the neighboring
counties of northwest ohio. Daybreak is not far off and thinking
that the fog may be dense in a few spots but likely not widespread.

High temperatures today will likely be a few degrees above normal
except for a cool north breeze off lake erie.

Ridging will increase aloft tonight and Thursday and the
surface high will slide east of the area on Thursday.

Temperatures should drop nicely tonight with prime radiational
cooling conditions. The ene flow on Thursday may keep temps in
check especially near the lake erie lake shore but we should be
able to see upper 70s and lower 80s in most areas with
essentially no clouds.

Short term Thursday night through Saturday night
A quiet end to the week will give way to precip chances this
weekend, as high pressure centered off the mid atlantic coast will
promote return flow into the region. Dry conditions are expected
Thursday night through Friday night, however precip chances will
increase Saturday as a warm front will lift north through the area
as low pressure tracks east into the western great lakes. Relatively
unstable conditions by Saturday afternoon will promote scattered
shower t-storm activity, mainly diurnally driven, through the day on
Sunday. Have handled this with chance pops through this period,
until a weak cold front moves east of the area by Sunday night as
the low tracks into the eastern great lakes. There is some
uncertainty with the timing of this system due to model differences,
but confident enough in at least chance pops with the region in the
warm sector.

Temperatures will be above normal through the period. Have went a
few degrees warmer than the previous forecast for highs Friday and
Saturday, favoring warmer MOS guidance. Highs will generally be in
the mid to upper 80s across the area. Temperatures Sunday are a
touch cooler in the forecast, with low to mid 80s expected with
scattered precip around the area. Lows Thursday night in the mid to
upper 50s will warm into the 60s for the rest of the period.

Long term Sunday through Tuesday
A cold front will settle just south of the region in the Monday
through Tuesday timeframe as high pressure builds southeast across
the great lakes. Models have a general idea on the pattern, but
subtle differences in timing location lend to a bit lower confidence
on pops temps after Sunday night. Have kept slight chance to chance
pops Sunday night through Tuesday to account for the front in the
area. Have kept temperatures similar to previous forecast, with
above normal highs in the low 80s Monday and Tuesday. Lows will be
in the low mid 60s.

Aviation 06z Wednesday through Sunday
MVFR and local ifr ceilings will linger early this morning across
much of northeast oh and northwest pa. Patch fog will likely sneak
into ktol and ifr visibilities are likely there before sunrise.

Drier air will mix down after sunrise and expectingVFR conditions
to return to all TAF sites this morning. High pressure will move
almost overhead tonight with clear skies. The light north wind will
become light and variable.

Outlook... Non-vfr possible by Sunday in showers and
thunderstorms.

Marine
Quiet conditions on the lake through the period as high pressure
slowly builds southeast across the lake today through Thursday
night. This will keep winds fairly light and variable into Friday. A
warm front will lift north across the lake Friday night into
Saturday as low pressure tracks into the western great lakes. Winds
will increase out of the south by Friday, but will remain 10 kts or
less through the weekend.

Cle watches warnings advisories
Oh... None.

Pa... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Kosarik
near term... Kosarik
short term... Greenawalt
long term... Greenawalt
aviation... Kosarik
marine... Greenawalt


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45165 12 mi32 min 7.8 G 9.7 60°F 62°F57°F
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH 17 mi32 min NNW 7 G 8 58°F 1019.4 hPa (+1.3)
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 22 mi44 min NW 5.1 G 6 56°F 1019.5 hPa53°F
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH 26 mi44 min WNW 6 G 7 59°F 1019.7 hPa57°F
45005 - W ERIE 28NM Northwest of Cleveland, OH 37 mi32 min Calm G 0 54°F 55°F1019.9 hPa53°F
HHLO1 - Huron Light, OH 40 mi32 min NNW 7 G 8 59°F 1018.3 hPa (+1.4)
OWXO1 - Old Woman Creek, OH 42 mi107 min Calm 58°F 1018 hPa55°F
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 48 mi32 min W 1.9 G 2.9 53°F 1020 hPa (+1.4)

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Monroe, Custer Airport, MI21 mi55 minN 04.00 miFog/Mist52°F50°F93%1019.3 hPa
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI21 mi37 minNW 34.00 miFog/Mist52°F51°F97%1019.3 hPa

Wind History from ONZ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmW3NW4CalmS4S3S4S4NW5N5NW12NW13N8N9
G15
N4N3NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmNW3Calm
1 day agoNE5E4E5E7SE5E5E7S5E5E8CalmE5E6NE7
G14
E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoE4CalmCalmNE5E5CalmNE3CalmE3S6S3E3E3E4CalmE3E5------NE3N4NE3NE6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.