Monday, August20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Stony Point, MI

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Sunrise 6:46AMSunset 8:27PM Monday August 20, 2018 3:01 AM EDT (07:01 UTC) Moonrise 3:37PMMoonset 12:38AM Illumination 64% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ162 Lake Erie Open Waters From Maumee Bay To Reno Beach Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Reno Beach To The Islands Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From The Islands To Vermilion Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Vermilion To Avon Point Oh- 900 Pm Edt Sun Aug 19 2018
Overnight..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming east. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers and Thunderstorms likely overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Tuesday..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest. Showers with Thunderstorms likely in the morning, then showers with a chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet.
Tuesday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Friday..South winds 5 to 15 knots. Waves 2 feet or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LEZ162 Expires:201808200815;;920905 FZUS61 KCLE 200100 GLFLE Open Lake Forecast for Lake Erie National Weather Service Cleveland OH 900 PM EDT Sun Aug 19 2018 For waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on Lake Erie Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...High pressure 30.10 inches over the Eastern Great Lakes will move into New England Monday. This will allow low pressure 29.50 inches will track across the Central Great Lakes Tuesday. The low will track into southern Quebec by Wednesday morning, forcing a cold front across the lake. A trough averaging 29.90 inches will linger across the lake Wednesday. High pressure 30.20 inches will build over the area Thursday. LEZ162>165-200815-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Stony Point, MI
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location: 41.8, -83.08     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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Fxus61 kcle 200526
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
126 am edt Mon aug 20 2018

Synopsis
High pressure over the eastern great lakes will continue to
drift slowly east tonight and Monday. An area of low pressure
will develop over the plains late tonight. This low will move
northeast to the central great lakes by late Tuesday and will
pass to the north of the local area Tuesday night. A strong cold
front trailing this low will be southeast of the area by
daybreak Wednesday.

Near term through today
The overnight through tomorrow evening forecast looks good. We
just updated a few temperatures with the trend the past few
hours. There are no changes to the ongoing forecast.

Previous discussion...

quiet weather will continue for the next
24 hours or so. Smoke from the west coast fires has blanketed
the local area much of the day which has held temps back
slightly. Satellite is showing the smoke slowly drifting off to
the east and will try for mostly clear skies most areas
overnight. Monday will start out mostly sunny but clouds will be
on the increase during the day and by early evening the western
and southern ends of the area should be mostly cloudy. The
models remain consistent handling the low heading out of the
plains tomorrow. Precip from this system will reach the i-75
corridor around 00z Tuesday and then spread northeast across the
remainder of the area tomorrow night as a surface warm front
lifts north across the area. Expecting mainly showers but some
embedded thunder is likely.

Have stayed close to guidance for lows tonight. Tomorrow have
gone as little warmer than guidance near the lake because of the
downsloping component of the wind. Expect to see at least a few
middle 80s for highs tomorrow. Surface dewpoints will also be on
the increase during the period and it will feel very muggy
tomorrow.

Short term tonight through Wednesday night
Little change in the short term forecast. Forecast starts off wet
and cool as models continue to track low pressure across the lower
great lakes on Tuesday. At the upper levels deep upper trough will
dig over the great lakes ne, ushering in much cooler conditions. Low
will track over lake ontario Tuesday evening and into new england on
Wednesday. Could see a few showers in the east Wednesday morning,
but high pressure will build in quickly and remain over the area
through the remainder of forecast period.

Long term Thursday through Sunday
The long term forecast starts with a warming trend across the area
as upper level high pressure builds over the area. By
Saturday... Temperatures will be near normal to slightly above
normal. An upper trough will move east toward the great lakes region
Saturday into Sunday... Bringing the chance of unsettled weather.

There is still a lot of uncertainty at this time as the GFS keeps
the area mostly dry through the forecast period while the ecmwf
brings a bit more precipitation. Either way... We will continue to
monitor and update the forecast accordingly.

Aviation 06z Monday through Friday
High pressure to our northeast will continue to weaken overnight
and into Monday as low pressure approaches from the central
states. High level moisture will begin increasing from the west
through the early morning hours however any CIGS will remain
above 20kft. Also, could see patchy MVFR visibilities in early
morning fog away from lake erie. Monday expectingVFR conditions
to persist with CIGS lowering to around 10kft west late
afternoon. A warm front will move into the area from the south
in advance of the low Monday evening. After 00z expect
conditions to lower to MVFR ifr from the west in showers and
scattered thunderstorms.

Outlook... Non-vfr possible in showers and thunderstorms
Monday night into Wednesday.

Marine
Quiet conditions expected tonight and Monday with high pressure over
the eastern great lakes. Winds turn to the SE tomorrow as high
shifts east. Models continue in good agreement with low pressure
tracking across the lower great lakes on Tuesday. Small craft
advisory will be needed sometime Tuesday, as winds turn to the NW at
15 to 25 knots behind the system. Winds expected to drop below
small craft advisory criteria Wednesday night as high pressure
builds east over the lake. After that high pressure will remain the
dominant weather feature through the end of the work week.

Cle watches warnings advisories
Oh... None.

Pa... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Kubina
near term... Griffin kubina
short term... Djb
long term... Riley
aviation... Tk
marine... Djb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 6 mi41 min SE 11 G 13 74°F
45165 12 mi21 min SSE 5.8 G 7.8 71°F 77°F2 ft64°F
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH 17 mi61 min ESE 9.9 G 11 73°F 1016.9 hPa (+0.3)
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 22 mi31 min SSE 4.1 G 7 70°F 1017.1 hPa63°F
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH 26 mi31 min SSE 1 G 2.9 70°F 1017.9 hPa62°F
45005 - W ERIE 28NM Northwest of Cleveland, OH 37 mi31 min ESE 7.8 G 9.7 74°F 77°F1016.9 hPa63°F
HHLO1 - Huron Light, OH 40 mi61 min ESE 5.1 G 7 70°F 1016.3 hPa (+0.4)
OWXO1 - Old Woman Creek, OH 42 mi76 min Calm 62°F 1017 hPa61°F
45147 - Lake St Clair 48 mi61 min SE 7.8 G 7.8 74°F 75°F1016.8 hPa (+0.2)
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 48 mi61 min ESE 8.9 G 11 74°F 1017.9 hPa (-0.0)

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Monroe, Custer Airport, MI21 mi66 minW 810.00 miFair63°F61°F94%1017.6 hPa
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI21 mi66 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy69°F63°F81%1017.3 hPa

Wind History from ONZ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmE3NE3E3CalmSE4SE4SE6S6S7S8S6S7S7S4SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoNW7NW4NW4N6NW5N8N4NE5NE6NE6E6NE6S8S7SE5S5SE3SE4SE3E3CalmCalmCalmNE3
2 days agoSW4SW4W4CalmSW3W3SW3CalmSW4S4S6S7S7SW6CalmCalmCalmCalmW4CalmNW3NW4NW4NW5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.