Wednesday, November14, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Stony Point, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:21AMSunset 5:14PM Wednesday November 14, 2018 10:59 AM EST (15:59 UTC) Moonrise 1:09PMMoonset 11:15PM Illumination 40% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ162 Lake Erie Open Waters From Maumee Bay To Reno Beach Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Reno Beach To The Islands Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From The Islands To Vermilion Oh- 952 Am Est Wed Nov 14 2018
This afternoon..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northeast. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Northeast winds 10 knots or less becoming east and increasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..East winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots. Snow likely in the morning, then rain and snow in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Snow and rain in the evening, then a chance of snow overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..West winds 15 to 25 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest. A chance of rain and snow showers during the day, then a chance of rain and snow Saturday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west. A chance of rain Sunday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
LEZ162 Expires:201811142115;;294226 FZUS61 KCLE 141452 GLFLE Open Lake Forecast for Lake Erie National Weather Service Cleveland OH 952 AM EST Wed Nov 14 2018 For waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on Lake Erie Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...High pressure 30.60 inches will move across the Central Great Lakes today, then off the New England coast Thursday. Weak low pressure 30.00 inches will move across the Ohio Valley on Thursday as a East Coast low 29.40 inches, tracks along the East coast into the Canadian maritime on Friday. Meanwhile low pressure of 29.50 inches will move across the Upper Great Lakes on Friday, pulling a cold front east across Lake Erie. High pressure of 30.20 inches will set up across the eastern Great Lakes over the weekend. LEZ162>164-142115-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Stony Point, MI
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location: 41.8, -83.08     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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Fxus61 kcle 141448
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
948 am est Wed nov 14 2018

Synopsis
Cold surface high pressure will build over the great lakes
region today before pushing into new england for Thursday.

Attention then turns to a complex storm system associated with
a closed upper low over the mississippi river valley. Two areas
of surface low pressure, one over the lower ohio river valley
and the other off the carolina coast will merge off of the mid
atlantic and deepen into a strong coastal storm by Thursday
night. A mixed precipitation event will occur over the local
region as a result of this system.

Near term through Thursday
Clouds continue to expand north well ahead of the next system
expected to move north toward the area in the next 24 hours.

Adjusted sky grids to account for more clouds than currently
forecast. Otherwise, no other major changes.

Previous discussion...

pressure rises occurring over the region as high pressure
builds in from the west. Winds are coming down over western
counties, allowing for less mixing. Could see temperatures in
sheltered areas near toledo to findlay bottom out in the upper
teens at daybreak. Most of the clouds have cleared out as dry
air moves into the region, with some low stratus hanging on in
the east. Temperatures will be in the mid 30s despite mostly
sunny conditions. Clouds will start to thicken and lower tonight
as moisture advection increases. It will take some time for the
mid low levels to support precipitation so kept the overnight
period dry for most of the area. Temperatures will likely
plummet after sunset and despite increasing clouds could likely
see lows in the mid 20s.

Threat for a winter mix of precipitation on Thursday.The closed
upper low to our south will be the driver for the deepening low
pressure system off the eastern seaboard as well as a weaker
low in the ohio valley on Thursday. At the onset of the event in
the morning temperatures will be below freezing throughout the
column. However, as the day progresses a warm nose will move
into the region. A wintry mix of precipitation is expected
across the entire region which will reduce potential
accumulations of snow or ice. Most of the area will start off
with snow, perhaps a brief window of snow sleet late morning
before becoming predominantly a cold rain due to warm air aloft.

Am favoring the cooler models of the gfs ECMWF believing the
nam is overdoing the magnitude of the warm nose. Evaporative
cooling will cause some cooling of the column, and as the low
deepens off the eastern seaboard and becomes the dominant
surface feature cooler air will be advected into the region.

This being said, there is concern about the saturation around
the critical dgz layer which could support more rain due to a
lack of ice crystals. Snow accumulations will only be around a 1
to 2 inches for most areas, with the greatest potential
accumulations impacts across northwest pa where cold air damming
in the hills could keep precip type frozen throughout the
entire event. Moisture on the backside of the system will be
limited apart from the lake enhancement with limited
accumulations. Concerned about trowel in the deformation zone in
our western counties which could lead enhance snow showers.

These values could easily shift with a small temperature change
of only a degree or two in the low levels. Have trended lower
with the forecasted moisture (or qpf) believing a good deal of
the moisture coming from the east coast will be reduced by the
mountains.

Short term Thursday night through Saturday night
The Thursday system will be pulling away by Friday morning and
will hold onto just a chance of snow showers in the morning as
another fast moving trough deepens across the great lakes
region. A surface trough will pull a weak cold front across the
area towards mid- day and will continue with just low chance pop
in the east. Deeper moisture pulls away during the afternoon
and the airmass is only marginally cold enough to support lake
effect with southwest flow focusing any lingering rain snow
showers mainly over the lake. Temperatures will recover back to
the upper 30s except lower 40s along the lakeshore.

A broad upper level trough deepens from the northern plains across
the great lakes on Saturday. The GFS wants to develop some light
precipitation across mainly NW ohio with shortwave energy moving
through the flow aloft, while the 00z 14 ECMWF keeps the area dry
with precipitation focused upstream in illinois closer to the 850mb
front. Given the differences, will hold onto a low 30 pop across
northern portions of the area with a slight chance or less across
the south but we may be able to remove on later cycles.

Long term Sunday through Tuesday
The below normal pattern continues through the extended as a
broad trough remains across the eastern united states. A little
better moisture return is anticipated by Sunday with possibly
the best chance of light snow as over running develops Sunday
night. This would quickly slide east Monday taking the deeper
moisture with it. Cold advection will continue behind this
system with northwest flow across lake erie on Monday. There
will be a chance of snow showers across eastern portions of the
snowbelt but these will be limited by moisture depth and the
shorter fetch with NW flow.

Aviation 12z Wednesday through Sunday
Lake enhanced clouds keeping a stratus deck across
cle cak yng eri this morning. This will become less organized
and slowly lift from west to east as drier air moves in through
the day. Meanwhile some thin cirrus will filter in from south
to north. Clouds will gradually lower Thursday morning but will
remainVFR through 12z.

Outlook... Non-vfr likely Thursday and Friday.

Marine
Small craft advisory remains in effect east of vermilion through 10
am. Winds through this time will be out of the northwest at 15 to 20
knots but will continue to decrease through the afternoon as high
pressure expands east across the lake. Likewise, waves of 3 to 6
feet early will drop off to 2 to 4 feet this afternoon.

Winds will develop out of the southeast at 10-15 knots on Thursday
ahead of weak low pressure moving north into the ohio valley. A
stronger low pressure system will pass north of the lake on Friday
with winds shifting to the southwest with the passage of a cold
front. Winds will increase to 30 knots on the mid-section of the
lake and small craft advisories will be needed at least east of the
islands, and possibly across the entire lake into Saturday.

Cle watches warnings advisories
Oh... None.

Pa... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 3 pm est this afternoon for lez148-
149.

Synopsis... Jamison
near term... Jamison lombardy
short term... Kec
long term... Kec
aviation... Jamison
marine... Kec


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH 17 mi59 min NNW 13 G 15 29°F 1035.6 hPa (+1.6)
45005 - W ERIE 28NM Northwest of Cleveland, OH 37 mi39 min NNW 12 G 18 28°F 1035.7 hPa17°F
HHLO1 - Huron Light, OH 40 mi59 min NNW 6 G 11 28°F 1032.8 hPa (+1.6)
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 48 mi59 min NW 6 G 12 26°F 1034.9 hPa (+1.7)

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Monroe, Custer Airport, MI21 mi64 minN 010.00 miFair27°F20°F75%1034.5 hPa
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI21 mi64 minN 510.00 miFair28°F16°F61%1034.2 hPa

Wind History from ONZ (wind in knots)
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1 day agoCalmCalmS4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3NE5N4N5N5N7N6N5NW8N9NW10NW9N6NW11
2 days agoSW9
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SW7SW4SW4SW3SW4SW4SW4SW4SW4SW3SW4SW3W4W3W3W3CalmCalmW3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.