Thursday, November15, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Providence, RI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:34AMSunset 4:26PM Thursday November 15, 2018 3:36 PM EST (20:36 UTC) Moonrise 1:55PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 53% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ236 Narragansett Bay- 126 Pm Est Thu Nov 15 2018
.gale warning in effect from midnight est tonight through Friday morning...
Rest of today..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of snow with a slight chance of rain.
Tonight..E winds 20 to 25 kt. Gusts up to 35 kt, increasing to 45 kt after midnight. Waves around 3 ft. At the bay entrance, waves around 6 ft, building to 11 ft after midnight. Rain and snow in the evening, then rain after midnight. Vsby 1 nm or less, increasing to 1 to 3 nm after midnight.
Fri..N winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming nw 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 3 ft. At the bay entrance, waves around 11 ft, subsiding to 9 ft in the afternoon. Rain likely in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft. At the bay entrance, waves around 8 ft, subsiding to 5 ft after midnight.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the morning. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Sat night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Sun..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 foot or less.
Sun night..W winds around 5 kt, becoming S after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. Patchy fog in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 126 Pm Est Thu Nov 15 2018
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. A coastal storm moves up from the carolinas bringing snow and strong winds to the waters late today through Friday. High pressure returns for the weekend. A cold front moves through on Monday. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Providence, RI
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location: 41.81, -71.4     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 151942
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
242 pm est Thu nov 15 2018

Synopsis
A high impact but short duration snowstorm is on tap for areas
away from the very immediate coast this evening. Precipitation
transitions to mainly ice and then rain overnight, except
perhaps portions of the high terrain in massachusetts. Dry
weather with chilly temperatures move in Friday afternoon
through most of the weekend as high pressure builds across. A
weak low may bring patchy light rain and or snow late Sunday
into Monday. Another shot of colder air moves in by the middle
of next week, though it should be mainly dry.

Near term through tonight
235 pm update...

* high impact short duration snowstorm this evening for many
* winter storm warnings posted for northwest of i-95
a high impact short duration winter storm is on tap across much
of the region this evening. Potent closed mid level energy
across the ohio valley was inducing an 80+ knot winds at 700 mb.

The result has been for heavy snow to break out across portions
of the mid atlantic states this afternoon.

1) heavy snow away from the very immediate coast this evening:
this potent speed MAX convergence zone at 700 mb will continue
to lift northward resulting in very strong frontogenetic
forcing this evening across southern new england. Heavy snow
should develop after 4 or 5 pm across our northern ct zones and
spread northeastward into northeast ma after 7 or 8 pm. Highest
impact expected in our ct zones... Given the heavy snow with 1 to
2 inch per hour rates will impact a large portion of the
evening rush hour. The latter half of the evening rush hour will
likely be impacted in the springfield... To worcester to
providence areas.

The biggest question with this forecast is how well this band of
strong frontogenesis will maintain itself as it lifts northeast.

Confidence is highest across our ct ri and interior southeast ma
zones. Further north... The guidance is somewhat split on that
potent speed MAX at 700 mb. The rgem NAM maintain it across
northern ma... While the ECMWF gfs tend to weaken it and shunt it
further east. Regardless... It will snow heavy across much of the
region for a time but this will impact accumulations. We still
feel that 4 to 7 inches of snow looks good for much of the
region. Given the short duration high impact event and
considering some light icing will persist after the main
event... Feel warnings are warranted for much of the region. Snow
amounts will likely be much lighter on the very immediate
coast. Sst around 50 with an easterly wind will result in making
it difficult to get more than an inch in these locations before
a quick change to rain.

2) warming aloft mid level dry air late this evening:
much of the region appears cold enough for mainly snow through
02z or 03z. However... The very potent 700 mb southerly jet will
transport mid level warmth northward across the region. Ptype
should transition from snow to ice rain from 02z through 06z
across southern new england. At the same time... Mid level dry
air will be cutting off our snowgrowth. Regardless... It appears
that the damage will be done across the region but some lighter
rain ice will linger. Ptype will mainly be rain across eastern
ma ri... But some light sleet freezing rain may persist for a
time across the interior.

It does appear that temperatures by daybreak Friday will be
above freezing for most of the region for the morning rush hour.

The exception will be some of the high terrain... Especially
interior northern ma where some light sleet freezing rain may
still result in slippery travel
3) strong to damaging winds:
a strong easterly low level jet of 55 to 65 knots is expected
to develop at 925 mb during the overnight hours along with
impressive pressure falls. Low level lapse rates are fairly
steep along the coast. This will result in a period of easterly
wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph along the eastern ma coast and up to
60 mph across the CAPE islands. High wind warnings have been
issued for the CAPE islands with wind advisories along the
eastern ma coast. Will have to watch for some downed trees and
isolated to scattered power outages.

Short term Friday
Friday...

the surface low pressure system looks to track near the
southeast new england coast Friday morning. Its associated
closed 700 mb level will also track across the southeast portion
of our region. The result will be periods of rain through Friday
morning... Before coming to an end by afternoon. However... Colder
air wrapping in behind the system may allow for portions of
interior ma especially the high terrain to transition back to
a period of snow. It is possible that some of these areas see an
additional 1 to 3 inches of snow in this region. However... For
the rest of the region temps should remain above freezing with
perhaps just some wet snow flakes mixing in at the end.

Precipitation petty much ends by Friday afternoon and we may
see some peeks of Sun late in the day. Afternoon temps should be
in the 30s to the lower 40s with gusty northwest winds.

Long term Friday night through Wednesday
Highlights...

* colder than normal temperatures linger through most of the
period
* weak low pressure may bring periods of rain and or snow late
sun into mon
overview...

low pressure moves into the gulf of maine Friday evening as the
mid level steering flow becomes nearly zonal across the
northern tier states through the weekend. Will see mainly dry
conditions through most of Sunday, though it will be chilly.

Noting a digging h5 trough heading S out of central canada and
hudson bay by late Sunday, while another system across the south
central states may bring rain and or snow toward the region
later Sunday into Monday. H5 vortex spins across quebec, another
shot of cold air may shift SE toward the northeast u.S. Monday
night into Wednesday.

Details...

Friday night into Saturday...

as the low moves away from the region Friday evening, some snow
showers might linger for a time across NW mass. Otherwise, will
see mainly dry conditions as overnight lows run close to
seasonal levels. The mid level steering flow becomes nearly
zonal by Saturday as high pressure slips south of the region.

This will keep a w-nw flow in place.

Wind gusts up to around 25 kt may develop as a low level jet
from h95-h85 moves across with decent low level lapse rates.

Appears the best shot for the higher gusts will be across cape
cod and the islands as well as the higher inland terrain. Expect
high temps to range from the upper 30s across the E slopes of
the berkshires to the mid-upper 40s across the coastal plain.

Saturday night through Monday...

with the fast flow aloft, will see another quick moving cold
front push across Sat night. Should be mainly dry, though a few
snow showers may develop across NW mass. Most of the precip
looks to remain N and W of the region into Sunday. Another shot
of colder air works in Saturday night as temps bottom out mainly
in the 20s, except the 30s along the immediate shoreline.

The front that pushed through Sat may linger near or S of the
region in the w-sw flow aloft, as another weak wave moves along
it. 00z models vary on their solutions on how this low will
affect the region, but noting fair agreement that a batch of
light snow moves across later Sunday into Monday. Could see
light snow and or rain along S coastal areas. Not a whole lot of
moisture with this system, but some locations may see some
light snow accumulations mainly across the interior. Temps on
Monday will run about 5 to 10 degrees below seasonal normals.

Tuesday and Wednesday...

h5 trough will linger across the northeast during this
timeframe, bringing another shot of cold air. May see some snow
showers linger across the E slopes of the berkshires into the
northern ct valley both days. Also, as the colder air moves over
the milder ocean waters, may see some snow showers develop
across the mid and outer CAPE as well as nantucket.

Current forecast suggests that the highs on Tuesday may run
15-20 degrees below seasonal normals. Some readings across the
higher inland terrain may not break freezing! The temps should
recover somewhat on Wednesday, but will remain below normal.

Aviation 19z Thursday through Tuesday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Friday ...

tonight... Moderate to high confidence. Ifr to lifr conditions
overspread the region from southwest to northeast roughly from
21z through 01z in moderate to heavy snow. The exception will be
the very immediate coast... Where the marine influence will
likely result in a transition quickly over to rain. Across the
rest of the region... Ptype will transition to rain across
eastern ma ri with a period of light icing across the interior
between 02z and 06z. Ifr conditions persist overnight with
temps rising above freezing by 12z... Except for portions of the
interior high terrain in ma.

In addition... A strong easterly LLJ will result in 40 to 50 knot
wind gusts along the coast, strongest of those across the
cape islands.

Friday... Moderate to high confidence. Low end MVFR-ifr
conditions in the morning in mainly rain with any snow ice
confined to interior ma. Precipitation ends by afternoon with
improvement to MVFR and even someVFR conditions possible late.

Kbos terminal... Moderate to high confidence in taf. Snow or a
mixture of rain snow develops around 00z or 01z... But quickly
transitions to all rain by 03z. A coating to 1 inch is possible
on runways before that occurs. Easterly wind gusts of 40 knots
expected overnight.

Kbdl terminal... High confidence in taf. Heavy snow overspreads
the terminal after 21z or 22z. This continues through about 03z
before ptype transitions to a period of sleet freezing rain.

Ptype should then change to all rain after 6z or so.

Outlook Friday night through Monday ...

Friday night:VFR. Windy with local gusts to 30 kt.

Saturday through Saturday night:VFR. Breezy.

Sunday: mainlyVFR, with local ifr possible. Slight chance sn.

Sunday night: mainly ifr, with local MVFR possible. Chance sn,
slight chance ra.

Monday: MVFR ifr conditions possible. Breezy. Chance sn, slight
chance ra.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Friday ... High confidence.

Tonight... Strong easterly LLJ will result in 50 knot wind gusts
across much of our waters late tonight with strong SCA across
boston harbor narr bay. Seas will build to between 15 and 20
feet across our eastern waters by daybreak Friday. Vsbys reduced
at times in mainly a windswept rain.

Friday... Storm force wind gusts should diminish to gales during
the morning and persist into part of the afternoon with still a
decent pressure gradient in place. Seas will remain very high.

Outlook Friday night through Monday ...

Friday night: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds with
local gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 12 ft.

Saturday: low risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Saturday night: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft.

Sunday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Sunday night: winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain.

Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Monday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Slight chance of rain.

Hydrology
Renewed river flooding is possible across ri and eastern ma with
0.50 to 1.0 inches of rainfall possible tonight into Friday
after a few inches of snow first. Will have to watch this
closely.

Tides coastal flooding
Astronomical tides are very low (below 9 ft) in boston. Thus
with this upcoming storm worse case scenario would be isolated
minor flooding possible.

Climate
Record low temps for today nov 15
bos 17 in 1933
pvd 18 in 1905
bdl 17 in 1905 and 1933
orh 14 in 1933
record low MAX temps for today nov 15
bos 30 in 1933
pvd 30 in 1933
bdl 30 in 1933
orh 30 in 1972 and 1996

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... Winter storm warning until 7 am est Friday for ctz002>004.

Ma... High wind warning from midnight tonight to 9 am est Friday for
maz022>024.

Winter weather advisory until 1 am est Friday for maz017>021.

Wind advisory from midnight tonight to 9 am est Friday for
maz007-014>016-019.

Winter weather advisory from 6 pm this evening to 2 am est
Friday for maz007-013>016.

Winter storm warning until 7 am est Friday for maz002>006-
008>012-026.

Ri... High wind warning from midnight tonight to 9 am est Friday for
riz008.

Winter weather advisory until 1 am est Friday for riz002>007.

Winter storm warning until 7 am est Friday for riz001.

Marine... Storm warning from midnight tonight to 9 am est Friday for
anz231>235-237-250-254>256.

Gale warning from 10 pm this evening to 4 pm est Friday for
anz230-251.

Gale warning from midnight tonight to 9 am est Friday for
anz236.

Synopsis... Frank evt
near term... Frank
short term... Frank
long term... Evt
aviation... Frank evt
marine... Frank evt
hydrology...

tides coastal flooding...

climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 0 mi42 min E 7 G 8.9 31°F 48°F1031.2 hPa
PVDR1 2 mi36 min NE 5.1 G 8 32°F 1031.3 hPa (-2.9)19°F
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 7 mi36 min NE 8.9 G 11 32°F 47°F1030.9 hPa (-3.2)
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 12 mi36 min ENE 8 G 12 33°F 1031.1 hPa (-2.9)
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 12 mi51 min ENE 7 33°F 1032 hPa23°F
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 14 mi36 min 32°F 50°F1031.5 hPa (-2.6)
FRXM3 14 mi36 min 33°F 22°F
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 14 mi36 min ENE 8 G 11 33°F 1031.3 hPa (-2.6)
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 15 mi36 min NE 9.9 G 14 49°F1031 hPa
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 22 mi36 min NNE 8 G 8.9 33°F 45°F1030.5 hPa (-3.1)
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 35 mi36 min NE 17 G 18 35°F 1030.7 hPa (-3.0)
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 42 mi36 min 31°F 1032.6 hPa (-2.3)
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 43 mi36 min 35°F 50°F1030.7 hPa (-2.4)
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 48 mi36 min NE 5.1 G 7 33°F 55°F1029.5 hPa (-3.6)
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 49 mi51 min 1.9 37°F 1032 hPa24°F

Wind History for Providence, RI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Providence, Theodore Francis Green State Airport, RI6 mi45 minENE 810.00 miOvercast31°F19°F61%1031.7 hPa
Pawtucket, North Central State Airport, RI7 mi40 minE 610.00 miFair29°F17°F61%1025.8 hPa
N. Kingston / Quonset, RI14 mi46 minENE 1015.00 miOvercast32°F19°F60%1031.2 hPa
Newport, Newport State Airport, RI20 mi43 minENE 710.00 miPartly Cloudy32°F21°F66%1030.8 hPa
Taunton, Taunton Municipal Airport, MA21 mi44 minENE 310.00 miFair32°F19°F59%1032 hPa
New Bedford, New Bedford Regional Airport, MA24 mi43 minNNE 610.00 miA Few Clouds32°F24°F73%1031.4 hPa

Wind History from PVD (wind in knots)
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1 day agoNW13
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2 days agoS8SW3CalmCalmCalmS4S4SW3SE5SE8E5SE6E5NE4S8S11S10SE13
G21
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G22
SE7S6W3NW10NW8

Tide / Current Tables for Providence, Rhode Island
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Providence
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:07 AM EST     3.77 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:57 AM EST     1.03 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:35 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:54 AM EST     First Quarter
Thu -- 12:54 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 01:27 PM EST     3.99 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:24 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:33 PM EST     0.92 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:24 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.43.83.52.921.311.31.92.12.22.63.33.93.93.32.51.6111.41.71.82

Tide / Current Tables for Nayatt Point, Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island
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Nayatt Point
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:09 AM EST     3.62 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:49 AM EST     1.14 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:34 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:54 AM EST     First Quarter
Thu -- 12:54 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 01:31 PM EST     3.95 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:24 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:37 PM EST     1.04 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:24 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.33.63.42.71.91.31.11.31.61.92.32.83.43.93.93.32.41.61.11.11.21.41.72.2

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.