Thursday, May25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Providence, RI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:14AMSunset 8:10PM Thursday May 25, 2017 12:58 AM EDT (04:58 UTC) Moonrise 5:27AMMoonset 7:58PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ236 Narragansett Bay- 716 Pm Edt Wed May 24 2017
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Patchy fog. Showers likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Areas of fog. Showers. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Areas of fog. Showers likely. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat..NW winds around 5 kt...becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat night..S winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sun night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon night..W winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. A chance of showers. Seas are reported as significant wave height...which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 716 Pm Edt Wed May 24 2017
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Coastal low will move northeast of the benchmark this afternoon... With high pressure system building later in the day. A potent low pressure system will move over the area late Thursday into Friday. Followed by quiet weather for the weekend with another frontal system moving through late Sunday into Monday. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period...please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Providence, RI
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location: 41.81, -71.4     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 250218
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service taunton ma
1018 pm edt Wed may 24 2017

Synopsis
Dry weather will continue most of the night. Then later tonight
an approaching low pressure center delivers increasing clouds,
followed by a widespread rain Thu into fri. The rain will likely
be heavy at times Thu night into Friday morning as the low
intensifies. Weak high pressure will bring a dry start to the
holiday weekend Saturday and early Sunday. Another coastal low
brings more wet weather late Sunday into early Monday. Leftover
showers are possible through the first half of the week.

Near term until 6 am Thursday morning
Overall trend in the forecast remains on track for tonight. High
level clouds will continue to stream into the region ahead of
the next system approaching from the west. Easterly flow
remains persistent keeping dewpoints in the 50s. Temperatures
are slowly starting to fall, but should remain steady as
radiational cooling will be limited as clouds thicken up.

Overnight lows will remain in the low to mid 50s.

Dry weather will prevail overnight with a few showers moving up
from the south near dawn tomorrow morning.

Previous discussion...

high pressure over newfoundland will maintain dry weather for
much of the night. Meanwhile the right entrance region of the
upper jet is moving over a portion of the midwest midsouth cold
front near its triple point, where the pressure pattern is
baggy. Expect a secondary low to develop in this area as it
swings east. This will bring increasing clouds, with a low
chance for measurable rainfall toward daybreak associated with
the warm front. We have slowed the onset of pcpn a couple of
hours toward daybreak, with slight chance to low chance pops
mainly south of the mass pike while areas to the north remain
dry. Overnight lows on the mild side, mainly low to mid 50s,
but some locales may manage to dip into the upper 40s.

Short term 6 am Thursday morning through Thursday night
Thursday...

anomalously large and deep upper trough makes its way eastward to
the eastern great lakes and mid atlantic region. Surface low is
initially in the vicinity of ohio early thu, however developing
surface low over the triple point develops closer to the mid
atlantic coastline during the day and eventually becomes the primary
surface low.

For our area, precipitation ahead of and associated with the warm
front will move in during the morning. Low level moisture
convergence sets up in our vicinity. Most robust moisture looks to
remain offshore, with pwats increasing to 1 to 1.5 inches over
southern new england. Could see QPF ranging from few tenths of an
inch to near an inch during the day. GFS and NAM indicate dry slot
reaches our area during the afternoon, which could allow for a break
in more widespread precipitation until evening.

Between the clouds, the rain, and an onshore steady east wind, temps
are not expected to climb very much. Daytime highs mainly in the
50s. A few sites may hit 60 but Thursday will have the feel of a raw
springtime day. Some areas of drizzle and fog may develop in the
afternoon.

Thu night...

continued good agreement in models that a potent short wave rounding
the base of the high amplitude east coast trough, prompting a
negative tilt. Surface low makes its way into southern new england,
and lingers in our vicinity for much of the night.

While periods of rain are anticipated in southern new england,
models indicate the plume of deeper moisture is further offshore.

Gfs and NAM showing pwats of 1 to 1.5 inches in our area for thu
night. Accompanied by decent lift, anticipating a night of soaking
rainfall for our area. Thinking QPF for Thu night would be around an
inch or so. NAM model soundings supportive of elevated instability,
so embedded thunder is possible. That could produce allow for some
localized higher precip totals. Low level inversion supports
formation of low clouds and areas of fog.

Long term Friday through Wednesday
Big picture...

the longwave scale retains cyclonic flow over the eastern usa much
of the period while a ridge builds over the western usa.

Vertically stacked closed low over southern new england moves
northeast toward the maritimes Friday. Upper flow evolves northern
and southern jets over the weekend. Closed low moved along by the
northern flow will dip south from canada into the great lakes over
the weekend. Shortwave in the southern flow ejects northeast from
the southwest usa. Eventually the southern jet forms a coastal low
off the mid atlantic states Sunday night that moves up the coast
past our area Monday. The northern stream closed low remains stalled
over the great lakes through the early week, with signs of it
breaking down around Wednesday.

Upper mass fields remain similar through Saturday. The models agree
on the concept of a closed low moving from canada Sunday to the
great lakes Monday and Tuesday, but differ on placement. This in
turn brings differences with the interaction with the southern jet
and shortwave. All of this leads to higher confidence for the late
week and lower confidence for early next week.

Details...

Friday...

low pressure over our area, surface and aloft. Forecast details will
depend on the small scale placement of the surface low, but expect
lingering wet weather leading the low, but diminishing as the low
lifts northeast into the gulf of maine. Cold conveyor moisture will
wrap around the low, and the cyclonic curvature will support lift.

We will keep showers in the forecast much of the day, although
less coverage than at the start of the day.

The low moves off Friday night. Expect any remaining showers to
taper off and partial clearing.

Saturday-Sunday...

high pressure brings a day of rest from the wet weather. Temps of 8c
to 9c at 850 mb suggests MAX temps in the low to mid 70s. A light
southeast surface flow will occur along the east mass coast and hold
max temps there in the 60s.

Weak high pressure lingers through Sunday morning, but moves
offshore during the day. Expect increased mid and high clouds
Saturday night and Sunday. Dew points Saturday night will be around
50... So expect min temps near 50. Temperatures aloft warm a degree
by Sunday, but also expect more clouds than on Saturday. Will
forecast MAX temps similar to Saturday.

Sunday night through Wednesday...

low pressure in the great lakes. Southern stream shortwave reaches
the mid atlantic coast and generates surface low. Models show a 30-
35 knot south low level jet feeding up into our area Sunday night,
then sweeping east on Monday. Expect a period of rain showers Sunday
night and Monday. Low pressure lifting into canada swings a cold
front through the region Monday night or early Tuesday, maintaining
a chance of showers until passage. Upper trough swings across about
Wednesday bringing a chance of showers, mainly in northwest mass.

Aviation 02z Thursday through Monday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Thursday night ... High confidence.

Tonight... High confidence mainlyVFR with easterly winds. We are
monitoring nantucket for potential low ceilings in stratus
overnight. Fog patches could develop across low lying
terminals.

Thursday... Deteriorating to MVFR ifr CIGS and vsbys in rain and fog
with east wind gusting to 20 knots along the shoreline.

Thursday night... Ifr CIGS and vsbys in rain and fog with east wind
gusting to 20 knots along the shoreline. Rain moderate to heavy at
times.

Kbos taf... High confidence in taf. Easterly flow through the
period.

Kbdl taf... High confidence in taf.

Outlook Friday through Monday ... Moderate to high forecast
confidence.

Friday... Initial conditions ifr, but improve to mixedVFR MVFR in
showers as winds shift from the northwest.

Saturday and Sunday daytime... VFR. Diminishing northwest wind
Saturday. Light wind Sunday.

Sunday night-Monday... CIGS vsbys trending to MVFR ifr in showers
and fog. Winds from the southeast, trending from the south Monday.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Thursday night ... High confidence.

Tonight... Steady easterly flow, departure of offshore low and
approach of next system will allow for building seas. SCA headlines
for tonight primarily for seas, on southern outer coastal waters, bi
and ri sounds.

Thursday... Approaching system from the west will help increase winds
and seas through the day. SCA continues where confidence is highest
for seas above 5 feet. Good inversion through the day will limit
gusts but anticipating some gusts around 25 kts where SCA headlines
are hoisted.

Thursday night...

poor vsbys in rain and fog Thursday night. Easterly winds around 25
knots eastern coastal waters with strongest winds during the
evening. These winds then lift north of the waters. Seas building up
to 10 feet across the CAPE ann waters, less elsewhere. SCA headlines
have been extended thru Thu night for outer coastal waters.

Outlook Friday through Monday ...

Friday...

low pressure center crosses coastal massachusetts Friday morning and
then exits northeast through the gulf of maine. Easterly winds
around 25 knots leading the low center will shift from the north
behind the low with gusts near 25 knots possible. Seas will maintain
at 5-7 feet on the outer waters and the exposed nearshore waters
such as mass bay and ri sound. Small craft advisories will continue
in these areas.

Winds and seas diminish Friday night.

Saturday-Sunday...

weak high pressure moves over the waters. Winds will be 20 knots or
less both days. Seas on the outer waters will be around 5 feet on
Saturday, otherwise seas should be less than 5 feet both days.

Sunday night-Monday...

increasing southeast winds Sunday night become east on Monday.

Speeds should remain less than 20 knots. Seas on the outer waters
may approach 5 feet but otherwise expect seas to remain less than 5
feet. An area of rain moves across the waters during this time with
locally poor vsbys in rain and fog.

Tides coastal flooding
725 pm update...

noted that we have a tide departure of about three quarters of
a foot at most tide gages. This will result in the total water
level topping out just below the still water flood stage at most
points along both our east and south coasts. This is close
enough to probably result in isolated minor coastal flooding of
most vulnerable shore roads. For example the tide could be high
enough to impact a portion of morrisey boulevard in boston.

Inundation depths should be generally under a half foot.

Prior discussion...

combination of a very high astronomical tide and a .7 to 1.0 foot
storm surge will likely result in minor coastal flooding about the
time of the late Thursday night high tide along much of the ma east
coast. The salisbury to CAPE ann stretch of coastline is most at
risk, since the low level ene jet would have just moved north of
this area just a couple of hours before high tide with a moderately
significant NE wave fetch in place at the time of the high tide.

However, the expected total water level looks to be high enough to
support areas of minor coastal flooding along the coastline south of
gloucester to plymouth as well as provincetown. Thus, it may become
necessary to issue a coastal advisory for much of the ma east coast
including CAPE cod for the late Thursday night high tide. Waves will
not be a major factor but looks like enough low level wind gradient
to produce 6 to 9 foot waves in the near shore waters in ipswich
bay, about CAPE ann, and massachusetts bay. Some erosion is likely
along the salisbury and plum island shorelines where wave action
will be somewhat more significant.

Elsewhere along the ma and ri coasts, the combination of the high
astronomical tide and a tidal departure near a half foot may be
enough to cause pockets of minor coastal flooding as has become more
common during such king tide cycles. A statement may be needed for
the islands, and both the ma and ri south coasts, including
narragansett and buzzards bay shorelines, for the Thursday
evening night high tides.

Given that we are expecting no impacts beyond minor coastal
flooding, we will hold off on headlines for now and let the next
shift have the opportunity to refine the coastal impact forecast and
issue any advisories statements deemed necessary.

Little to no storm surge is expected at the time of the late Friday
night or very early Saturday am high tide, but that astronomical
tide by itself may be sufficiently high to produce isolated pockets
of minor coastal flooding and possibly worthy of a statement as that
time draws nearer.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt Friday for anz235-237-
254>256.

Small craft advisory from 6 am Thursday to 6 pm edt Friday for
anz250.

Small craft advisory from noon Thursday to 6 pm edt Friday for
anz251.

Synopsis... Wtb nmb
near term... Dunten nmb
short term... Nmb
long term... Wtb
aviation... Wtb nmb
marine... Wtb nmb
tides coastal flooding... Staff


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 0 mi41 min ENE 5.1 G 6 57°F 60°F1010.8 hPa
PVDR1 2 mi41 min NNE 4.1 G 6 56°F 1011.1 hPa51°F
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 7 mi47 min NE 5.1 G 7 56°F 62°F1011.3 hPa
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 12 mi41 min ENE 5.1 G 7 56°F 1011.2 hPa
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 12 mi74 min ENE 5.1 55°F 1011 hPa52°F
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 14 mi41 min 55°F 58°F1011.8 hPa
FRXM3 14 mi41 min 56°F 51°F
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 14 mi41 min NE 5.1 G 6 56°F 1010.4 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 15 mi47 min NNE 8 G 8.9 57°F 59°F1011.6 hPa
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 22 mi41 min NNE 5.1 G 8 56°F 55°F1011 hPa
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 35 mi59 min ENE 12 G 12 55°F 1011.4 hPa (+0.6)
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 42 mi41 min 56°F 54°F1011.8 hPa
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 43 mi41 min 55°F 58°F1011 hPa
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 48 mi41 min NE 2.9 G 4.1 57°F 55°F1010.8 hPa
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 49 mi74 min Calm 53°F 51°F

Wind History for Providence, RI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Providence, Theodore Francis Green State Airport, RI6 mi68 minNE 510.00 miMostly Cloudy54°F51°F90%1011.6 hPa
Pawtucket, North Central State Airport, RI7 mi63 minENE 310.00 miFair49°F46°F93%1013.9 hPa
N. Kingston / Quonset, RI14 mi2.1 hrsE 1010.00 miMostly Cloudy59°F50°F72%1011.2 hPa
Newport, Newport State Airport, RI20 mi66 minNE 410.00 miFair54°F50°F87%1010.9 hPa
Taunton, Taunton Municipal Airport, MA21 mi67 minN 06.00 miFog/Mist48°F46°F93%1011.4 hPa
New Bedford, New Bedford Regional Airport, MA24 mi66 minno data miFair0°F0°F%1011.2 hPa

Wind History from PVD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS4CalmCalmCalmE3E3N3NE4E66E7E7E6NE13E9E9E9E8E7NE7E6NE6NE5NE4
1 day agoNW4N7N8N6N6N7N6N8N9NE9NE7NE7NE5NE5N6W8SW3S5SE4S7SE3S4S5Calm
2 days agoS3S3SW4SW4SW4S5S5S8S6S8S9S11S11
G17
S9S9SE9S8S7S10S5S6S7CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Providence, State Pier no.1, Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island
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Providence
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:27 AM EDT     -0.59 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 05:27 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:21 AM EDT     5.53 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:32 PM EDT     -0.85 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:46 PM EDT     New Moon
Thu -- 07:57 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:08 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:41 PM EDT     6.43 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.4-0.5-0.5-00.51.42.84.55.45.342.10.4-0.7-0.7-00.91.83.24.96.16.45.43.6

Tide / Current Tables for Nayatt Point, Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island
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Nayatt Point
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:30 AM EDT     -0.93 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 05:27 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:09 AM EDT     5.47 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:33 PM EDT     -0.97 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:46 PM EDT     New Moon
Thu -- 07:56 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:08 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:32 PM EDT     6.69 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0-0.8-0.9-0.30.72.13.64.85.55.13.71.80.1-0.8-0.9-0.30.92.345.56.56.65.43.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.