Friday, February23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sagamore, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:22AMSunset 5:26PM Friday February 23, 2018 3:35 PM EST (20:35 UTC) Moonrise 11:58AMMoonset 1:37AM Illumination 61% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ231 Cape Cod Bay- 324 Pm Est Fri Feb 23 2018
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog. Rain this evening. Vsby 1 to 3 nm, decreasing to 1 nm or less after midnight.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. Rain likely.
Sun..E winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming se 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of rain.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft.
Tue..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Tue night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Wed..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Wed night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 324 Pm Est Fri Feb 23 2018
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. A cold front will push south of the waters Saturday morning. A series of frontal systems will sweep across the waters through the weekend. High pres builds over the waters early next week. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sagamore, MA
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location: 41.83, -70.55     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 231759
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service taunton ma
1259 pm est Fri feb 23 2018

Synopsis
High pressure over maine moves east today. A frontal system
approaching from the west will bring another round of rain and
mixed precipitation this afternoon and evening. Active weather
pattern continues this weekend with more rain and interior mixed
precipitation Saturday night and Sunday. A near- seasonable,
quiet pattern for early next week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Forecast remains on track with spotty rain showers moving into
the region. Many of the showers are not reaching the ground due
to the dry air aloft, but some areas are reporting light rain.

We have also received reports of sleet along the eastern slopes
of the berkshires.

*** a period of light icing likely later today and early this
evening over higher elevations in central and western ma ***
spotty showers will overspread the region before the large
swath of rain moves in from the west. Main time frame of the
freezing rain looks to be between 1pm and 9pm. Area of heavy
rain however will likely not enter the region until 3pm.

A winter weather advisory remains in effect for the higher
terrain through this evening due to the potential for freezing
rain. Sounding profiles show the best chance for freezing
rain sleet to be across the higher terrain given the warm front
aloft with cooler temperatures at 925mb. There still stands a
low potential for ice accumulations up to a quarter inch on the
eastern slope of the berkshires.

Given a large area of pwats just to our south and southwesterly
winds by 21z, this moisture will likely be advected over the
region, bringing areas of heavy downpours into the evening. Most
models are suggesting precip accumulations just over a quarter
inch.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Saturday
Tonight...

rain will be exiting in the evening from west to east as mid
level drying moves in behind departing surface wave and winds
shift to west. Temps rising through the 30s, and into the 40s
in the coastal plain. Patchy low clouds and fog will develop
tonight with some clearing possible toward daybreak.

Saturday...

surface ridging builds into new eng bringing dry weather.

Sunshine will give way to increasing afternoon clouds in
progressive pattern, with just a low risk for a few showers
moving into SW new eng by evening. A rather mild day expected in
the coastal plain. 925 mb temps range from +2c in NW ma to 8c
near the south coast. With NW flow, temps will reach well into
the 50s in the coastal plain with a few locations in ri and se
ma possibly near 60. Cooler 40s over higher elevations NW ma.

Long term Saturday night through Thursday
* highlights...

- wintry mix transitions to freezing rain Saturday night into Sunday
- quiet, dry, near-seasonable early week period
- stormy pattern emerging for the beginning of march
* overview...

upstream pacific flow flattening, SE CONUS sub-tropical h5 ridge
weakening, sw-ne thermal wind axis and storm track along the better
baroclinic zone shifts S E along which mid-level impulses eject out
of a preferred h5 trof pattern across the W conus. An active weather
pattern with a series of disturbances delivering mixed precipitation
events thru the weekend. Building up over the N atlantic signaled
by a strongly -nao, initial omega-block transitions to a rex-block,
retrograding w. The preferred region of storm development shifting,
a quiet early week period looks to turn stormy for the beginning of
march. Preference to high-res guidance through the weekend capturing
2m temperatures in more detail, with ensemble means thereafter. Hit
on targets of opportunity below.

* discussion...

Saturday night into Sunday...

an over-running precipitation event associated with a classic warm
occlusion into S canada. Transitioning precip-types as a warm nose
around h8 becomes pronounced, deepening above a shallow surface cold
airmass, maintained by interior S funneling ageostrophic flow aided
by a secondary coastal surface low invoked by strong synoptic lift
forcing as cold surface high pressure is situated N e. Whew. Overall
a favorable synoptic setup for an initial onset of snow and or sleet
before changing over to freezing rain, mainly across the interior.

Change-over if not already rain towards the coast.

No surprise consensus forecast guidance edged colder, more high-res
guidance becoming available. Cips analogs a higher probability of a
>6 hour freezing rain event, yet notably a large spread in the top 5
analogs. While leaning N W ma holding below freezing throughout, and
that sub-freezing wet bulb conditions could extend as far S as N ct
and NW ri, hesitation given a decent slug of precip falling through
an ever increasing warm layer above a shallow cold layer.

Forecast trend accordingly, entrenching cold overnight but chipping
away into Sunday morning with increasing warm air advection aloft
through which precipitation intensity reaches its peak. A retreat of
mainly freezing rain outcomes N W over time, reiterating that areas
in N W ma are likely to see freezing rain throughout after a brief
burst of snow and or sleet. Ice accretion amounts upwards of 0.1 to
0.2 inches given less dry air intrusions and deeper lift forcing.

This an precipitable waters in the 0.75 to 1.00 inch range, looking
at storm-total precipitation amounts that can be well up around 0.50
to 0.75 inches, locally higher along SW facing high terrain slopes
and along the anticipated kinked surface warm front.

Early next week...

continued preference to ensembles. N atlantic traffic build up, an
omega-block evolves lending to a strongly -nao. Evolution towards a
rex-block retrogressing as energy continually emerges from upstream
out of a W CONUS h5 trof pattern, indications the initial region of
preferred storm development off SE canada alters W closer to the e
conus. The slowed pattern allowing cyclones to mature and later
occlude in our neighborhood, forecast model consensus trending with
a deep, strong storm in our vicinity for the beginning of march. Way
out in time, can hardly touch on details and specifics, continued
ensemble member spread. However can't ignore such robust signal when
tides are reaching their peak (boston around 11.5 feet). Until then
will keep it dry and near-seasonable right on up through Thursday.

Then all eyes are upon a potential storm system.

Aviation 18z Friday through Wednesday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Saturday ... Moderate confidence.

Through today... MVFR ifr conditions will overspread the region
by mid afternoon, with rain, pockets of sleet and freezing rain
developing across interior ma. Greatest risk of fzra over
higher elevations.

Tonight... MVFR prevails with rain this evening, and pockets of
fzra at higher elevations in northern ma. Ra fzra will end by 3z
along the eastern coast. Fog will settle in behind the precip,
keeping conditions MVFR in the valleys.

Saturday... Fog may linger along the southern coast and islands
past 12z. Conditions will improve toVFR across the region by
early morning.

Kbos terminal... Moderate confidence. MVFR through this evening
with onset of rain near 21z. Rain ending near 3z with improving
conditions around 6z.

Kbdl terminal... Moderate confidence. MVFR ifr through this
evening. Patchy fog in the am, burning off by 9z.VFR conditions
to follow.

Outlook Saturday night through Tuesday ... Moderate confidence.

Saturday:VFR. Breezy.

Saturday night: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.

Chance ra, fzra, chance sn.

Sunday: mainly ifr, with areas MVFR possible. Windy with local
gusts to 30 kt. Ra, fzra, patchy br.

Sunday night: mainlyVFR, with local ifr possible. Breezy.

Patchy fg.

Monday:VFR.

Monday night:VFR. Breezy.

Tuesday:VFR.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Saturday ... High confidence.

Today... Ne winds veering to SE in the afternoon. Gusts to 20 kt
over eastern waters late in the day. Vsbys lowering in rain and
fog late.

Tonight... A brief period of southerly gusts to near 25 kt
possible NE ma waters in the evening, otherwise winds shifting
to west with gusts to 20 kt. Rain exits in the evening with
improving vsbys, but patchy fog may develop over southern
waters.

Saturday... Diminishing west winds becoming northerly in the
afternoon. Seas below sca.

Outlook Saturday night through Tuesday ...

Saturday: winds less than 25 kt.

Saturday night: low risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of
rain.

Sunday: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts
up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Rain, patchy fog. Local
visibility 1 nm or less.

Sunday night: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Chance of rain, patchy fog. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Monday through Monday night: winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to
5 ft.

Tuesday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... Winter weather advisory until 9 pm est this evening for
maz002>004-008-009.

Ri... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Kjc sipprell
near term... Kjc nocera sipprell correia
short term... Kjc nocera
long term... Sipprell
aviation... Kjc nocera sipprell correia
marine... Kjc sipprell


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44090 12 mi36 min 38°F1 ft
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 17 mi111 min 5.1 40°F 1034 hPa32°F
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 22 mi48 min 39°F 38°F1032.6 hPa
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 33 mi46 min ESE 9.7 G 12 38°F 39°F1 ft1033.1 hPa (-2.6)36°F
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 34 mi48 min SE 8 G 9.9 38°F 1031.8 hPa
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 34 mi54 min 38°F 41°F1033 hPa
FRXM3 35 mi48 min 39°F 35°F
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 36 mi46 min SE 14 G 16 38°F 40°F3 ft1031.9 hPa (-4.1)
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 39 mi36 min E 9.9 G 12 37°F 1032.2 hPa (-3.6)
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 43 mi48 min SE 9.9 G 11 37°F 41°F1032.2 hPa
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 44 mi111 min S 4.1 40°F 1010 hPa34°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 44 mi54 min SSE 2.9 G 6 37°F 1032.2 hPa
PVDR1 44 mi48 min SSE 11 G 14 38°F 1032.4 hPa37°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 45 mi54 min S 9.9 G 14 38°F 39°F1032 hPa
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 45 mi48 min ESE 8.9 G 11 39°F 43°F1032.9 hPa
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 45 mi48 min 39°F 1031.3 hPa
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 47 mi48 min ESE 7 G 9.9 38°F 38°F1031.7 hPa
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 48 mi92 min 9.7 G 14 38°F 40°F2 ft1032.6 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 48 mi54 min SE 11 G 13 38°F 42°F1032.4 hPa

Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA
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NE10
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Plymouth, Plymouth Municipal Airport, MA11 mi44 minVar 610.00 miOvercast41°F30°F67%1032.6 hPa
Otis Air National Guard Base, MA12 mi41 minSE 106.00 miLight Drizzle37°F32°F81%1032.8 hPa
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA18 mi40 minSSE 610.00 miLight Rain40°F32°F73%1032.2 hPa
Marshfield Airport, MA20 mi41 minSE 810.00 miOvercast39°F35°F87%1032.2 hPa
Provincetown Municipal Airport, MA22 mi40 minSSE 610.00 miLight Rain38°F33°F83%1033.4 hPa
New Bedford, New Bedford Regional Airport, MA24 mi43 minESE 84.00 miRain Fog/Mist38°F35°F89%1032.4 hPa

Wind History from PYM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE9NE10NE8E6E4NE3NE6N5NW3CalmCalmN4N5CalmN4CalmE3E7E7E7SE8E8SE76
1 day agoS9SW8S6S3S4CalmCalmE5N10N10NW13
G20
N9N11N10
G17
NE10NE8
G16
NE10NE13NE7
G21
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2 days agoSW9S5S5S5S4S6S46S6S5S6SW9SW10SW9SW8SW12
G19
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G22
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G20
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G16

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Cod Canal, Bournedale, Massachusetts
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Cape Cod Canal
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:36 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 03:09 AM EST     First Quarter
Fri -- 03:59 AM EST     6.68 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:26 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:33 AM EST     0.12 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 10:58 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:35 PM EST     5.98 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:25 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 10:52 PM EST     0.42 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.33.85.26.36.76.35.23.82.41.10.30.21.12.53.855.85.95.34.22.91.70.70.4

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Cod Canal, Massachusetts Current
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Cape Cod Canal
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:36 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 02:37 AM EST     -0.17 knots Slack
Fri -- 03:09 AM EST     First Quarter
Fri -- 05:46 AM EST     -4.21 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 06:26 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:43 AM EST     0.19 knots Slack
Fri -- 10:58 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 11:44 AM EST     4.00 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 03:15 PM EST     -0.03 knots Slack
Fri -- 05:25 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:16 PM EST     -4.08 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 09:12 PM EST     0.18 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.83.22-1.7-3.2-4-4.2-3.7-2.51.53.13.843.62.81.3-2.3-3.5-4.1-3.9-3.1-1.32.53.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.