Tuesday, December18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sagamore, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:02AMSunset 4:14PM Tuesday December 18, 2018 10:55 PM EST (03:55 UTC) Moonrise 2:41PMMoonset 3:10AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ231 Cape Cod Bay- 1013 Pm Est Tue Dec 18 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until 4 am est Wednesday...
Overnight..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 7 ft.
Wed..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Thu night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 1 foot or less, then around 2 ft after midnight. Rain likely after midnight.
Fri..SE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Fri night..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 40 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas around 4 ft. Rain.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 4 ft. A chance of showers in the morning.
Sat night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 4 ft.
Sun..W winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sun night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 1013 Pm Est Tue Dec 18 2018
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. NW gales will diminish overnight. High pres builds over the waters on Wed. This high pres will shift offshore late Wed into Thu, resulting in sw winds and moderating temperatures. A storm system will approach srn new england from the sw Fri and Fri night, which will bring se gales to the waters. A cold front will push across the waters on Sat. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sagamore, MA
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location: 41.83, -70.55     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 190300
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
1000 pm est Tue dec 18 2018

Synopsis
Gusty winds diminish this evening as high pressure moves in.

This brings dry conditions for mid week, with a moderating
temperature trend peaking on Friday. Strong low pressure
passing west of the region will bring heavy rainfall and strong
coastal winds Friday into Friday night. Low pressure departs on
Saturday followed by mainly dry and seasonably cold conditions
Sunday through christmas day.

Near term until 6 am Wednesday morning
10pm update...

overall, evening forecast remains on track. Primary adjustments
will be to bring temps dwpts up to current trends, and with
this, bring min temps up slightly given the slow release of the
evening pres gradient. Still expect many locations dipping into
the teens by daybreak. No real change to that. Otherwise, just a
few mid high clouds to contend with, forming in the higher
terrain of the catskills. These may skirt mainly ct during the
early portions of the overnight hours.

Short term 6 am Wednesday morning through Wednesday night
High pressure dominates on Wednesday under a building mid level
ridge over the eastern seaboard; with that comes a wind shift from
the northwest to the west southwest and beginning of some moderating
return flow waa. H85 temps rise several degrees above freezing where
they'll remain through the end of the week. This brings high temps
about 5-10 degrees warmer than we saw today, into the upper 30s,
even approaching 40. All in all a pleasant day with warmer temps and
light winds. Wednesday night we'll again see potential for good
radiational cooling given clear skies and light winds, but with the
warmer air pumping in from the southwest temps will remain in the
teens and 20s, higher along the coast.

Long term Thursday through Tuesday
Highlights...

* dry and mild thu
* heavy rainfall late Thu night into Fri night with strong winds
along the coast
* mainly dry and seasonable Sun into christmas day
Thursday...

mid level ridging builds across new eng ahead of high amplitude
upstream trough. Surface high pres well SE of new eng with southerly
flow of mild air into the region. Sunshine will gradually give way
to increasing clouds but any rainfall will hold off until Thu night.

High will reach mid upper 40s for much of the region, with 50+
possible across ri and SE ma.

Thursday night into Friday night...

anomalous system approaching new eng will bring heavy rainfall and
high wind threat to sne late Thu night into Fri night. High
amplitude mid level trough becoming negatively tilted as it lifts
north into new eng. Impressive low level jet ahead of this system
will advect highly anomalous pwats potentially exceeding 1.5 inches.

Pwat and low level anomalies are near 4sd above normal which is
rather impressive and a strong signal for heavy rainfall and
potential for strong winds. What is uncertain is the exact timing of
the heavy rain and strongest winds and where axis of heaviest
rainfall sets up as models differ on timing, strength and
positioning of low level jet. At this time, heaviest rain will
likely be during Fri for most of the day possibly lingering into the
evening, especially SE new eng. Excellent ensemble support for heavy
rainfall of 1.5 to 3 inches, with locally higher amounts given
highly anomalous system. Leaning toward eastern new eng for axis of
heaviest rainfall based on wind pwat anomalies but this is not
certain yet as we are still 3 days away. Areas of urban and poor
drainage flooding is likely and also expect some rivers to reach
minor flood with 2 inches of rainfall, and possibly moderate flood
if amounts approach 3 inches.

Best chance of strong to damaging wind gusts will be sometime during
fri, especially across ri and SE ma where temps may exceed 60
degrees which will enhance low level mixing. Instability is weak and
t-storm threat is marginal but any convective elements could enhance
strong wind potential. There is some support that the late fri
evening period could be a window for strong winds across SE new eng.

Saturday...

transition day Sat as storm departs the region, but mid level trough
passage and lingering deep moisture will likely lead to sct showers,
at least during the morning. Mild start to the day but cooling temps
in the afternoon as cold advection takes place which will be
accompanied by gusty NW winds.

Sunday through Tuesday...

mainly dry weather and seasonably cold conditions expected. May have
to contend with a few low amplitude fast moving shortwaves but not
looking at much if any precip as moisture will be limited.

Aviation 03z Wednesday through Sunday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Wednesday night ... High confidence.

Tonight... VFR. NW wind gusts 20-25 kt along immediate coast
and CAPE islands, diminishing by midnight.

Wednesday...VFR. Light W SW winds.

Wednesday night...VFR.

Kbos terminal... High confidence in taf.

Kbdl terminal... High confidence in taf.

Outlook Thursday through Sunday ...

Thursday:VFR.

Thursday night: MVFR ifr conditions possible. Windy with local
gusts to 30 kt. Ra.

Friday: mainly ifr, with areas MVFR possible. Strong winds with
areas gusts to 40 kt. Ra.

Friday night: MVFR ifr conditions possible. Windy with gusts to
35 kt. Ra.

Saturday: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance
shra.

Saturday night:VFR. Windy with local gusts to 30 kt.

Sunday:VFR. Breezy.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Wednesday night ... High confidence.

Northwest winds will continue to be gusty through tonight 25-30
kts, except for the waters off northeast ma where gusts to 35
kts are possible. Seas of 9-12 ft continue on the outer waters.

Winds and seas diminish by Wednesday morning. During the day
Wednesday and Wednesday night expect W winds sustained 10-15
kts.

Outlook Thursday through Sunday ...

Thursday: winds less than 25 kt.

Thursday night: low risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of
rain.

Friday: moderate risk for gale force winds with local gusts up
to 45 kt. Rough seas up to 16 ft. Rain.

Friday night: low risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 16 ft. Rain.

Saturday: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 14 ft. Slight chance of
rain showers.

Saturday night: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds
with local gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 14 ft.

Sunday: low risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Tides coastal flooding
With southerly low level jet, the south coast will be the main
focus area for possible minor coastal flooding on fri. The
morning high tide Fri is the higher of the 2 tide cycles, but
wind and surge values will be limited at the time of the high
tide so no flooding is expected with this tide. Strongest
winds surge may actually coincide with the low tide fri
afternoon, but timing is not certain and it is possible the
stronger winds may linger and affect the Fri evening high tide.

While the evening high tide is a bit lower, if this occurs, a 2+
ft surge will be possible which may lead to minor flooding
along the shores of narragansett bay and buzzards bay, and some
splashover or minor flooding along ocean exposed beaches along
the south coast as wave action will become a factor with 10+ ft
seas just off the coast.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until midnight est tonight for anz232>235-
237.

Small craft advisory until 1 am est Wednesday for anz230.

Small craft advisory until 4 am est Wednesday for anz231.

Gale warning until midnight est tonight for anz250-251.

Small craft advisory until 9 am est Wednesday for anz254.

Small craft advisory until 5 am est Wednesday for anz255-256.

Synopsis... Kjc bw
near term... Doody
short term... Bw
long term... Kjc
aviation... Kjc bw
marine... Kjc bw
tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44090 12 mi55 min 41°F6 ft
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 17 mi70 min 6 27°F 1017 hPa12°F
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 22 mi55 min 28°F 40°F1016.5 hPa (+0.6)
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 27 mi45 min NW 21 G 25 29°F 39°F1016.2 hPa16°F
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 34 mi55 min NW 8.9 G 12 27°F 1017.4 hPa (+0.5)
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 34 mi61 min 27°F 41°F1017.7 hPa
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 34 mi65 min WNW 25 G 31 29°F 7 ft1014.8 hPa (+1.3)18°F
FRXM3 35 mi61 min 27°F 14°F
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 36 mi65 min NW 21 G 31 28°F 45°F4 ft1015.9 hPa (+1.4)17°F
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 39 mi55 min NW 19 G 23 27°F 1017.8 hPa (+0.7)
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 43 mi55 min WNW 15 G 19 26°F 44°F1017.8 hPa (+0.6)
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 44 mi61 min N 5.1 G 11 25°F 1018 hPa
PVDR1 44 mi55 min NW 8.9 G 12 25°F 1017.9 hPa (+0.6)12°F
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 44 mi70 min NNW 7 25°F 1018 hPa11°F
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 45 mi61 min 26°F 1017.2 hPa
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 45 mi61 min N 8 G 13 25°F 42°F1017.3 hPa
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 45 mi61 min NW 14 G 17 29°F 38°F1016.2 hPa
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 47 mi61 min NW 13 G 18 27°F 39°F1017.9 hPa
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 48 mi111 min NW 21 G 27 27°F 44°F4 ft1015.1 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 48 mi61 min NW 7 G 8.9 26°F 44°F1018.2 hPa

Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Plymouth, Plymouth Municipal Airport, MA11 mi63 minWNW 15 G 2110.00 miFair25°F10°F55%1016.7 hPa
Otis Air National Guard Base, MA12 mi3.1 hrsNW 1010.00 miFair27°F10°F50%1016.6 hPa
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA18 mi59 minWNW 8 G 1610.00 miFair27°F10°F51%1015.9 hPa
Marshfield Airport, MA20 mi80 minVar 6 G 1410.00 miFair27°F12°F54%1016.9 hPa
Provincetown Municipal Airport, MA22 mi59 minNW 21 G 2710.00 miFair and Breezy28°F18°F66%1015.8 hPa
New Bedford, New Bedford Regional Airport, MA24 mi62 minNW 610.00 miFair25°F12°F60%1017 hPa

Wind History from PYM (wind in knots)
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NW10NW11NW10NW9W9W7W9W9W10W8W9W9W9
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2 days agoNE8NE9NE13NE11
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E10E9NE12NE12
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G22
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G27

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Cod Canal, Bournedale, Massachusetts
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Cape Cod Canal
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:40 AM EST     0.70 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:10 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 06:49 AM EST     6.32 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:04 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 01:15 PM EST     0.60 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 01:41 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:13 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:16 PM EST     5.92 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.90.71.42.53.85.166.35.94.93.72.41.30.60.81.72.94.15.35.95.753.92.7

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Cod Canal, Massachusetts Current
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Cape Cod Canal
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:10 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 02:12 AM EST     3.77 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 05:44 AM EST     -0.03 knots Slack
Tue -- 07:04 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:34 AM EST     -4.02 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 11:42 AM EST     0.03 knots Slack
Tue -- 01:41 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 02:41 PM EST     3.71 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 04:13 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:07 PM EST     -0.18 knots Slack
Tue -- 08:57 PM EST     -4.05 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.53.43.83.73.22.3-1.4-3.1-3.9-4-3.4-2.31.533.63.73.42.71-2.7-3.7-4.1-3.7-2.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.