Saturday, November17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Staatsburg, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:47AMSunset 4:34PM Saturday November 17, 2018 6:50 AM EST (11:50 UTC) Moonrise 3:04PMMoonset 1:34AM Illumination 70% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 540 Am Est Sat Nov 17 2018
Today..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft early, then 1 ft or less.
Tonight..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun..N winds around 5 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun night..S winds around 5 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers after midnight.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers after midnight.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the morning.
Tue night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 540 Am Est Sat Nov 17 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure builds across the waters through the weekend. Weak low pressure passes through late Sunday through Monday. A slow moving cold front then moves across the waters on Tuesday followed by high pressure.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Staatsburg, NY
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location: 41.83, -73.93     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 171124
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
624 am est Sat nov 17 2018

Synopsis
A cold front will approach the region today with lake
effect snow showers and flurries mainly north and west of the
capital region. The cold front will move south of the region
tonight with high pressure briefly building in with diminishing lake
effect activity. Mainly light snow will begin to overspread the
region Sunday afternoon into the night time period, as a disturbance
passing south of the region will be moving along the old frontal
boundary, as temperatures for mid november will continue below
normal.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 558 am est... Abundant cloud cover still reigns this
morning across eastern ny and western new england in the zonal
flow aloft. The goes-16 10.3-3.9 micron scan shows all the
stratus with some minor erosion across central-eastern ct into
rhode island. Some diffuse scattered lake effect snow showers
continue across the western adirondacks of northern herkimer and
hamilton counties where some light snow accums are possible of
a few tenths to an inch or two are possible this morning.

However, the sfc layer has warmed with marginal temps in the
lower to mid 30s, and accums should stay light. Upstream bufkit
soundings from krme and kuca continue to show lake induced
conditional instability with marginal delta t's from the sfc to
h850 h700 around 15c. Inversion heights also remain low at or
below 5 kft agl. A few westerly upslope snow showers and
flurries will persist along the western spine of the southern
greens this morning with light accums of a coating to less than
a half an inch. Some spotty light rain or drizzle has been
around the eastern capital region into the northern
taconics northern berkshires. We added some slight chc pops
prior to noon.

Some of the cloud cover will likely erode from the capital
region south and east during the early to mid afternoon, as high
pressure tries to nose in from the mid atlantic states. The
boundary layer flow will shift to the west to southwest and
despite the snow pack some warming is possible with h850 temps
-3c to -7c ahead of the cold front.

The west to southwest winds ahead of the front may allow for
some downsloping off the adirondacks and catskills for highs to
get into the lower to mid 40s in the hudson river valley and
also southern litchfield co. Allowing for some snow melt. Mid
and upper 30s will be common in most other locations, except for
some upper 20s to lower 30s over the mountains.

The cold front approaches from the eastern great lakes region
and st lawrence river valley in the late afternoon. The lake
effect band off ontario may briefly reorganize with a 260-270
deg low-level trajectory for some snow showers for light accums
of an inch or so in the western adirondacks. An isolated snow
squall is possible for the western dacks. The latest 00z gfs
and 3-km NAM showed this occurring more so than the 3-km hrrr.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Monday
Tonight... The cold front has limited low-level moisture with as
it passes south and east across the forecast area. Any
organized lake effect activity that gets going will get
disrupted, as the low-level flow quickly veers to the
northwest. Inversion heights continue to lower. Our highest pops
will be confined to the western adirondacks, and western mohawk
valley where a few tenths to an inch or so could accumulate. We
kept a slight to low chance of snow showers mainly west of the
hudson river valley with the veering flow. A few upslope snow
showers off the southern greens are possible early on during the
evening. High pressure quickly builds in with a partial
clearing possible north of the capital region. In the cold
advection h850 temps fall to -9c to -12c from aly north and
west, and -5c to -8c south and east. If the winds decouple with
the clearing skies, lows could fall into the teens over the
southern adirondacks and the southern greens with 20s over the
rest of the region.

Sunday... A quiet start, but clouds will begin to thicken and
increase from the south and west, as low pressure will moving
towards the oh valley and moving along the old washed out cold
front south of the region. High pressure will shift east to
northeast of the region. Thermal advection begins with moisture
over running the old frontal boundary with light snow breaking
out across the catskills, north and east to potentially the
capital region, taconics, and mid hudson valley into southwest
new england. Some light rain may mix in briefly in the mid
hudson valley. There will be a lot of dry air in place which may
limit the northward extent initially, but a better coverage of
light snow is expected for the overnight period, as the
isentropic lift increases on the 285-290k surfaces. Highs on
Sunday will be about 10-15 degrees below normal with lower to
mid 30s in the valley areas, except the mid-hudson valley where
a few upper 30s are possible. Mid 20s to lower 30s will be
common over the mountains.

Sunday night... Fairly good agreement between the 00z
nam gfs ECMWF cmc and many ensembles that the best synoptic
forcing with the isentropic lift north of the wave and ahead of
the warm front will be during this time frame. The northward
extent may be a sharp cut-off over the northern zones. A couple
of inches of snow is possible especially over the eastern
catskills, taconics, and berkshires. Actually, we could get 1-3"
from late Sunday afternoon into Monday morning in these
locations. We have an inch or so in the valleys. Some light snow
will likely continue through the Monday morning commute. This
looks like a widespread light snow event with total qpf
generally under a quarter inch. Lows due to wet bulbing will be
in the mid 20s to lower 30s.

Monday... The light snow should end in the morning, as the sfc
wave pulls to the north and east. Some lingering light rain snow
showers or flurries may linger in the afternoon in the southwest
flow aloft as weak impulses continue to move through. Temps will
still run on the cold side with widespread 30s to lower 40s and
more clouds than sunshine. We will have to monitor another weak
wave moving along the boundary near southern ny, southern new
england and pa heading into Monday night into tue.

Long term Monday night through Friday
At upper levels, a broad trough will be in place across the
northeastern CONUS while ridging dominates the weather out west.

Locally, the broad trough will lead to below normal temperatures and
some chances for snow showers throughout the work week as upper
level impulses cold fronts pass through.

To start the period Monday night into Tuesday, an upper level
shortwave will pass through the region, along with a surface cold
front. This will result in the chance for snow showers across the
region, with less than half of an inch accumulation expected.

High pressure briefly builds in Tuesday night, with dry but chilly
conditions anticipated. Temperatures Tuesday night will dip into the
single digits in the dacks, with the mid teens elsewhere.

A stronger upper level system, and reinforcing shot of cold air will
approach and clip the region Wednesday into Thursday. This will
bring the chance for additional snow showers with continued cold
temperatures. The latest GEFS shows the 850mb temps are 1 to 2 std.

Dev. Below normal. Highs Wednesday and Thursday will be in the mid
20s to mid 30s, which is still well below the normal highs in the
upper 40s.

Dry weather is expected to end the work week as high pressure builds
into the region once again. This may allow for slight modification
of temps into the low 30s to near 40 degrees for highs.

Aviation 12z Saturday through Wednesday
MVFR toVFR CIGS will be in place through the TAF forecast
period as high pressure builds towards new york. For the
early morning period, MVFR CIGS will dominate as the area
remains under a westerly flow. A few snow flurries will be
possible off the lakes under this flow regime but are not
expected to reduce visibilities or accumulate.VFR conditions
are then expected across all TAF sites by this afternoon.

Winds from the west to northwest at 5-10 kt are expected today.

Some gusts up to 20-25 kt could occur, mainly at kalb and kpsf.

Outlook...

Sunday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of sn.

Monday: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra... Shsn.

Monday night: low operational impact. Slight chance of shsn.

Tuesday: low operational impact. Slight chance of shsn.

Tuesday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Wednesday: low operational impact. Slight chance of shsn.

Fire weather
Most of eastern new york and western new england is entirely snow
covered from the snowstorm yesterday. Colder than normal
temperatures will continue through the weekend. Lake effect snow
showers will persist north and west of the capital region
today. A widespread light snowfall will move in Sunday afternoon
into Monday.

Hydrology
Flows will continue to lower in the colder than normal
temperatures and mainly dry weather today, except for lake
effect snow showers over the western adirondacks into the
western mohawk valley. A few snow showers will continue over the
southern greens.

A disturbance moving along a front south of the region will
bring some light snowfall amounting to light accumulations of a
few inches or less late Sunday afternoon through Monday. Another
disturbance and a cold front will bring chances of snow showers
on Tuesday and Wednesday with light qpf.

Colder than normal temperature persist into the thanksgiving
holiday with flows continuing to recede.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service AHPS graphs on our
website.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Ma... None.

Vt... None.

Synopsis... Wasula
near term... Wasula
short term... Wasula
long term... Jlv
aviation... Jlv
fire weather... Wasula
hydrology... Wasula


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 13 mi81 min 37°F 1016 hPa32°F
TKPN6 13 mi39 min Calm G 1 38°F 40°F31°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 60 mi39 min WSW 6 G 8 39°F 53°F1017.6 hPa

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Poughkeepsie, Dutchess County Airport, NY13 mi58 minSW 910.00 miOvercast39°F30°F70%1017 hPa
Newburgh / Stewart, NY24 mi2.1 hrsW 810.00 miOvercast37°F33°F87%1016.6 hPa

Wind History from POU (wind in knots)
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1 day agoN3N3N3CalmE5NE4E5E5E5NE3CalmN7N5N7N7N8N7NE11
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2 days agoW7
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NW7NW14NW9NW10N6N3NW63NE8N9E4NE6N3N3CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Hyde Park, Hudson River, New York
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Hyde Park
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Sat -- 12:34 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 02:39 AM EST     0.53 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:47 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:30 AM EST     2.75 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:04 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:01 PM EST     0.80 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:33 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 08:42 PM EST     2.90 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.20.90.60.611.62.12.52.72.72.421.51.210.811.62.22.62.82.92.72.2

Tide / Current Tables for Kingston Point, Hudson River, New York
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Kingston Point
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:34 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 03:01 AM EST     0.64 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:48 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:50 AM EST     3.18 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:04 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:23 PM EST     0.96 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:33 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 09:02 PM EST     3.36 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.61.20.80.60.91.62.32.83.13.232.521.61.311.11.72.42.93.23.43.22.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.