Sunday, May19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Staatsburg, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:30AMSunset 8:14PM Sunday May 19, 2019 7:22 AM EDT (11:22 UTC) Moonrise 9:10PMMoonset 6:16AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 646 Am Edt Sun May 19 2019
Today..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt this afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers and tstms this morning.
Tonight..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Showers likely after midnight. Patchy fog after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Patchy fog in the morning. Chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Mon night..SW winds around 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
Tue..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, becoming N 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Wed..N winds around 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu..S winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 646 Am Edt Sun May 19 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A warm front lifts through the waters later this morning and afternoon. This will be followed by a cold frontal passage Monday night. High pressure will return for the middle of the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Staatsburg, NY
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 41.83, -73.93     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus61 kaly 191104
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
704 am edt Sun may 19 2019

Synopsis
A warm front will lift northward across the region today,
ushering in a warmer and more humid air mass this afternoon.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms will also increase, mainly
north and west of the capital district. A few of the storms may
be severe. Additional showers and a few thunderstorms will
spread eastward across the area tonight, followed by more
widespread showers and strong to severe thunderstorms associated
with a cold front passage on Monday. Much cooler and drier air
will filter in Monday night into Tuesday, with windy conditions
developing.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 635 am edt... Surface warm front gradually approaching
from SW ny and western pa this morning. Our region remains in
the cool mass to the northeast of the warm front. As the front
continues to lift northward, showers with a few embedded
thunderstorms downpours will continue to move across parts of
the area. The bulk of the activity has been across the mohawk
valley, SW adirondacks and saratoga region early this morning,
with upstream activity noted slightly farther south which should
shift eastward around the i-90 and i-88 corridor. Since
activity is expected to be scattered in coverage, will mention
mainly chance pops at this time. Once the first batch of
showers isold thunder associated with isentropic lift ahead of
the warm front moves through, it appears there will be a break
from around late morning into early afternoon.

Then, additional showers and thunderstorms are expected during
the mid to late afternoon hours. While differences exist in
placement timing, the hi-res cams are mainly focusing the most
concentrated area of convection to be across the
adirondacks mohawk valley lake george. This activity appears to
be associated with a lake breeze boundary, with convective
initiation over western central ny downwind of lake ontario.

With regards to the severe threat, there should be a decent
instability gradient setting up with more stable slightly cooler
marine-influenced air mass from around the capital district
eastward, while higher low-level dewpoints advect in from the
south west. While model dewpoints may be a bit high resulting in
large CAPE forecasts, actual SBCAPE could still be around
1500-2000 j kg from around albany north and west. The 0-6 km
shear forecast still looks to be around 30-35 kt, so there
should be enough buoyancy shear to result in strong severe
storms. Best chance looks to be across the mohawk and schoharie
valleys and eastern catskills, where a slight risk area outlook
from the storm prediction center is still in effect, with
marginal farther east where probabilities lower due to more
stable air mass.

Coverage of storms should be limited to isolated scattered due
to a 500 mb ridge axis in place through the day. Coverage of
convection occurring in ridges are typically not widespread. The
main threat with severe storms is expected to be damaging winds
in this environment, although large hail cannot be ruled out.

850-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be around 6-6.5 degc km.

Pwat anomalies from the GEFS will rise to around +1 to +2 stdev,
so localized downpours will likely occur. Relatively fast storm
motions should limit flash flood threat.

With at least partial clearing expected this afternoon,
temperatures should warm well into the 70s for much of the area.

It will be slightly cooler across western new england due to
slight marine influence with southerly low level winds.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Tuesday
Mainly scattered showers and some thunderstorms will gradually
spread eastward across the region ahead of pre-frontal trough
this evening into the overnight. Convection will gradually
weaken as it encounters more stable environment, but could at
least move into the hudson valley and perhaps southern vt as
some of the latest cams are indicating. The severe threat,
mainly for damaging winds continues into the evening but should
decrease by late evening as the boundary layer stabilizes.

Heights aloft will be lowering, so isolated embedded storms will
still be possible overnight. GEFS indicating pwat anomalies
increasing to +2 to +3 stdev, so the threat for downpours will
continue. The wind field aloft will also be strengthening, so
again fairly quick storm motion should preclude flash flood
threat. It will be a warm muggy night by may standards, with low
temps mainly in the 60s.

While not widespread continuous, additional rounds of showers
and thunderstorms are expected again on Monday. This time, the
activity will be associated with the main cold front that will
be pushing eastward across the area during the afternoon to
early evening hours. Mixed layer flow is forecast to become
southwest and increase further. The 0-6 km shear will likely be
around 40-50 kt, which will be more than sufficient for storm
organization. Unidirectional wind field and potential for larger
magnitude of CAPE (> 2000 j kg) favors both a damaging wind and
large hail threat. Mid level drying could also enhance hail
potential. Our entire area has been placed in a marginal risk
outlook from the storm prediction center. This may need to be
upgraded depending on eventual coverage of storms, since there
is expected to be fairly robust instability shear. Temperatures
will be quite warm ahead of the cold front thanks to the
southwest wind, as lower to mid 80s are expected in the hudson
valley from the capital district southward.

The cold front should be east of our region by mid late Monday
evening, with cold dry advection commencing with breezy
northwest winds developing. There could be a few lingering
showers over mainly higher terrain areas as an upper level
disturbance moves through just behind the cold front. Otherwise,
it will become much cooler an less humid Monday night.

Dry, but cool windy conditions expected for Tuesday, as high
pressure remains west of our region over the central upper great
lakes and low pressure slowly tracks eastward across the
canadian maritimes. This will result in a fairly strong pressure
gradient for this time of year. Northwest winds will become
rather gusty once better mixing occurs by late morning and
through the daylight hours. Gusts of 30-40 mph will be common,
especially across favored higher terrain areas and the capital
district into the berkshires. Temperatures will be much cooler
than Monday, with 50s and 60s for highs.

Long term Tuesday night through Saturday
Extended period will feature active weather as warm
front stationary front remains nearby.

The period begins on Tuesday night with cool cyclonic flow as a
strong low pressure system pulls away from new england. 12z
Wednesday, 850mb temps range from -2.5c over northern areas to
+2.5c over southern areas. Lows forecast in the 30s and 40s.

Winds look to stay just breezy enough during the night to
preclude frost development, but sheltered upland valleys that
decouple from the wind will probably see frost. The growing
season will have started for all of the albany forecast area by
Wednesday, so some frost advisories possible for Wed morning.

The rest of Wednesday looks fair, with just some increasing high
clouds late as a warm front approaches. Highs on Wednesday in
the 60s to around 70.

Thursday and Friday look unsettled as a warm front tries to
push through but gets hung up over the area. Showers and
thunderstorms possible. Lows Thursday in the 40s to around 50
and highs mid 60s to mid 70s. Lows Friday mainly in the 50s and
highs mainly in the 70s.

Area may be in the warm sector on Saturday, but with a cold
front approaching from the northwest, still a chance for showers
and thunderstorms. Lows Saturday in the 50s with highs in the
70s to around 80.

Aviation 12z Sunday through Thursday
An area of showers and thunderstorms extends from eastern new
york west to near buffalo. This area is moving west to east.

These showers are associated with a warm front. These showers
will move east and dissipate this morning before additional
showers and storms develop this afternoon with the suns heating.

Tempo for MVFR all TAF sites with any showers and storms today.

Some MVFR ifr also possible tonight as patchy fog and low
stratus develops across the area with increasing dew points
behind warm front.

Light and variable winds will become southerly at around 10 kt
with some gusts to around 20 kt possible today. A brief period
of marginal low level wind shear is possible roughly 12-15z all
taf sites as 2kft winds briefly increase before diurnal mixing
evens out the wind profile. Llws expected at kpsf after 20 03z.

Outlook...

Monday night: low operational impact. Breezy slight chance of shra.

Tuesday: moderate operational impact. Windy no sig wx.

Tuesday night: moderate operational impact. Windy no sig wx.

Wednesday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Wednesday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Thursday: low operational impact. Slight chance of shra... Tsra.

Thursday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra... Tsra.

Friday: low operational impact. Slight chance of shra... Tsra.

Fire weather
A warm front will lift northward across the region today,
ushering in a warmer and more humid air mass this afternoon.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms will also increase, mainly
north and west of the capital district. A few of the storms may
be severe. Additional showers and a few thunderstorms will
spread eastward across the area tonight, followed by more
widespread showers and strong to severe thunderstorms associated
with a cold front passage on Monday. Much cooler and drier air
will filter in Monday night into Tuesday, with windy conditions
developing.

Relative humidity values will drop to minimum values of between
55 and 65 percent this afternoon, increasing to maximum values
of around 90 to 100 percent tonight. Minimum rh values will be
around 45 to 55 percent Monday afternoon.

Winds today and tonight will be southerly between 5 to 15 mph.

Winds on Monday will shift to the southwest and increase to 10
to 20 mph, with gusts to around 30 mph.

Hydrology
Some showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible this
morning along a northward advancing warm front. Then, a break is
expected late morning to early afternoon, before another round
of showers and storms moves in, especially north and west of the
capital district later this afternoon into the evening. With
increasing humidity levels, any storms will be capable of heavy
downpours leading to localized urbanized low-lying area
flooding. However, storms should be fast moving so flash
flooding is not expected.

Additional rounds of showers and a few thunderstorms will
continue tonight into Monday ahead of an along a cold front
approaching from the west. Moisture anomalies will still be
relatively high, so there is a continued chance for locally
heavy rain within any convection. Basin average rainfall amounts
will vary significantly due to convective nature of the
precipitation. Locally greater than 1 inch will be possible
where thunderstorm activity is maximized. Areas north and west
of albany are expected to see multiple rounds of during this
time.

Drier weather returns Monday night through Wednesday as high
pressure builds back in. The next chance of showers arrives
later in the week with the approach of a warm front.

Please visit our advanced hydrologic prediction service AHPS web
page for specific area rivers and lakes observations and
forecasts.

Climate
Our first 80+ degree day of the year is expected in portions of
the hudson river valley on Monday.

Albany: daily temperature records date back to 1874
earliest 80+ degree day: march 9, 2016
latest first 80+ degree day: june 15, 1924
normal: april 30th
glens falls: records date back to 1893
earliest 80+ degree day: march 16, 1900
latest first 80+ degree day: june 15, 1924
normal: may 2nd
poughkeepsie: records date back to 1931
earliest 80+ degree day: march 9, 2016
latest first 80+ degree day: may 26, 1931
normal: april 24th

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Ma... None.

Vt... None.

Synopsis... Jpv
near term... Jpv
short term... Jpv
long term... Snd
aviation... Snd
fire weather... Jpv
hydrology... Jpv speciale
climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NPXN6 1 mi113 min SSE 1 56°F 1018 hPa48°F
TKPN6 13 mi53 min S 8.9 G 13 57°F 1017 hPa51°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 60 mi53 min S 7 G 8 1018.5 hPa

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
Last
24hr
N2
N7
G10
N9
G13
N6
G14
N5
G11
N8
G11
N7
G11
SW9
G13
S9
G14
SW8
G11
S8
G13
S9
SW7
SW8
G11
SW5
G9
SW6
G9
SW4
W4
S3
SW3
W4
S3
SE5
S4
1 day
ago
--
SW4
SW6
G11
S9
G12
S8
G11
S6
SW4
G7
SW4
W2
S4
G7
S5
S4
S4
S1
--
N1
N1
NW4
NW5
G8
N7
G10
NW6
G9
NW4
G8
N5
N5
2 days
ago
NW3
N3
G6
SE4
S4
G7
S6
G10
S7
S8
S7
S7
S7
G10
S7
G11
S6
SE3
SE2
SE3
SW4
SW4
--
N2
N1
--
E2
--
--

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Poughkeepsie, Dutchess County Airport, NY13 mi30 minN 010.00 miOvercast59°F48°F67%1017.3 hPa
Newburgh / Stewart, NY24 mi38 minN 020.00 miPartly Cloudy59°F51°F77%1018.3 hPa

Wind History from POU (wind in knots)
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
Last 24hrN4N4NW6--NE5333E5NE3CalmN3E3CalmSE6CalmSE3CalmCalm4CalmCalmSE3Calm
1 day agoS45SW7
G14
SW4N5W4SW5SW5SW4SW6W9SW5CalmCalmW5W4N7CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmW43W5NW3W54CalmCalmCalmNW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3

Tide / Current Tables for Hyde Park, Hudson River, New York
   EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Hyde Park
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:57 AM EDT     4.22 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:32 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:16 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 08:40 AM EDT     -0.33 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:24 PM EDT     3.48 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:49 PM EDT     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 09:09 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12
am
1
am
2
am
3
am
4
am
5
am
6
am
7
am
8
am
9
am
10
am
11
am
12
pm
1
pm
2
pm
3
pm
4
pm
5
pm
6
pm
7
pm
8
pm
9
pm
10
pm
11
pm
3.344.23.93.22.21.30.5-0.2-0.30.31.42.33.13.43.42.92.11.30.60.1-0.10.41.5

Tide / Current Tables for Kingston Point, Hudson River, New York
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Kingston Point
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:17 AM EDT     4.89 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:32 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:16 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 09:02 AM EDT     -0.40 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:44 PM EDT     4.02 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:10 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 09:11 PM EDT     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12
am
1
am
2
am
3
am
4
am
5
am
6
am
7
am
8
am
9
am
10
am
11
am
12
pm
1
pm
2
pm
3
pm
4
pm
5
pm
6
pm
7
pm
8
pm
9
pm
10
pm
11
pm
3.54.44.94.7431.80.8-0-0.401.12.33.33.943.62.81.810.3-0.10.21.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (7,2,3,4)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.