Saturday, November17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
North Perry, OH

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:16AMSunset 5:04PM Saturday November 17, 2018 2:30 PM EST (19:30 UTC) Moonrise 2:34PMMoonset 1:04AM Illumination 73% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ147 Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Vermilion To Avon Point Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Avon Point To Willowick Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on- The Lake Oh-lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Geneva-on-the- Lake To Conneaut Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 936 Am Est Sat Nov 17 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until 4 pm est this afternoon...
Rest of today..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest. A slight chance of rain showers late this morning, then a slight chance of rain and snow showers early this afternoon. A chance of rain and snow showers late. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Tonight..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming east less than 10 knots. A chance of snow and rain showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.
Sunday..Southeast winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. A chance of snow and rain showers. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday night..West winds 10 knots or less becoming northwest. A chance of snow and rain showers in the evening, then a chance of snow showers overnight. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Monday through Wednesday. The water temperature off toledo is 39 degrees, off cleveland 47 degrees and off erie 44 degrees.
LEZ147 Expires:201811172115;;443450 FZUS51 KCLE 171436 NSHCLE Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland OH 936 AM EST Sat Nov 17 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ145>149-172115-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Perry, OH
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location: 41.83, -81.16     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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Fxus61 kcle 171808
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
108 pm est Sat nov 17 2018

Synopsis
A cold front extending from low pressure over northern quebec will
move south across the eastern great lakes this evening. A weak
trough will slide through the ohio valley on Sunday with high
pressure building in behind it Sunday night. Another weak low
pressure system will pass north of lake erie on Monday night,
pulling a cold front south across the lake early Tuesday.

Near term through Sunday
Cold front continues to sag south across lower michigan and west
but precipitation is struggling to develop ahead of it as there
is quite a bit of dry air still over the region. Continue to
back off on pops and could very well be dry across the forecast
area until overnight. Temperatures remain on track but minor
tweaks to current conditions.

Previous discussion...

stratus deck remains across the entire southern great lakes region
early this morning. Westerly flow continues across lake erie but
not seeing any precipitation showing up on regional radars given
shallow moisture and marginal temperatures for lake effect.

With that said, can not rule out a little bit of drizzle falling out
of the shallow cloud deck, mainly over NW pa and will hold onto a
mention in the forecast for a couple more hours. As we progress
through the day, deeper moisture will overspread the lake and may
provide sufficient ice crystals for snow showers or a rain snow
mix to develop. Temperatures already starting out in the mid to
upper 30s will only warm a couple degrees today, but may be
enough for a mix with for rain, especially near lake erie.

A cold front is noted upstream across lake huron extending from low
pressure over northern quebec. Some minimal increase in low level
convergence is expected as this back door cold front approaches late
this afternoon into this evening. Whatever light showers that
develop will shift inland across the snowbelt this evening but
overall forcing is limited and expect little if any
accumulation, except locally up to an inch in NW pa. Winds will
shift around off lake erie and fall into the lower 30s
overnight.

The shortwave seen on water vapor imagery over the
northern rockies this morning will slide across the southern
great lakes on Sunday. Although moisture will be a limiting
factor, weak lift will develop along the 850-700mb front
bringing light precipitation to portions of northern ohio and nw
pennsylvania. With QPF amounts of less than a tenth of an inch
expected, will keep pops at the chance level with just a
rain snow mix for most areas during the daytime hours. Highs on
Sunday expected in the mid to upper 30s again.

Short term Sunday night through Tuesday night
Nearly the entire lower 48 states will be engulfed in a broad upper
level trough by Sunday night. The trough is expected to deepen with
time across the local area in positive tilted fashion through
Tuesday. The upper level trough then becomes negatively tilted by
Tuesday night as amplification of an upper level ridge takes place
over the west coast of the united states and advances east to the
rockies. An upper level jet maximum will begin to push east of the
area by Sunday night and will place a portion of the southern parts
of the forecast area in the right rear quad of the jet. A shot of
moisture with this feature will move across the area as well Sunday
night into Monday. Will introduce a chance for precipitation across
the area Sunday night into Monday. Then, as upper level trough
pivots across the local area, surface low pressure will move east
across the lower great lakes Monday night followed by weak high
pressure Tuesday and Tuesday night. All-in-all, it will be an
active weather pattern across the area that will transition into
some residual lake effect snow in the northeast by Tuesday night
with fair weather elsewhere. Colder temperatures can be expected
through the period in the cold air advection under the upper level
trough. Highs in the lower to middle 30s and lows well into the 20s
expected.

Long term Wednesday through Friday
Broad upper level trough will exit stage right as amplifying ridge
over the western united states builds east across the forecast area.

This will result in a weak wave of low pressure expected to move
east across the lower great lakes Wednesday and then followed by
high pressure Wednesday night into thanksgiving day. A warm front
will lift northeast of the area Thursday night on the west side of
the high pressure center. This will allow for some warm air
advection to take place out of the southwest and help boost
temperatures a tad warmer than what we have seen in recent days. 850
mb temperatures are expected to surge above 0 to around 4 degrees c
by Friday afternoon. A cold front and associated moisture is
expected to push closer to the forecast area from the west on
Friday. There is a slight chance that by afternoon for some
precipitation in the western portions of the forecast area.

Otherwise, the rest of the area will remain dry Friday.

Aviation 18z Saturday through Thursday
Widespread non-vfr ceilings persist over the terminals this
afternoon as a cold front approaches the area from the north. As
the cold front moves into the region will see ceilings fall
across the area but the frontal passage generally looks dry so
will keep tafs fairly dry for the first half of the critical taf
period except for ktol and kfdy where there could be a stray
snow shower. The front will stall across the area and will be a
source for snow rain development overnight into Sunday. Didn't
hit precipitation impacts too hard right now with mostly a
vicinity mention for tomorrow morning but will have a MVFR ifr
snow period at ktol as there is some higher confidence in snow
there. Winds will begin out of the west ahead of the front and
eventually will veer around to the north and then northeast to
east as the front moves south. Winds will be generally be light
through the period.

Outlook... Non-vfr likely Sunday and Tuesday.

Marine
A small craft advisory will remain in effect through this afternoon
as winds and waves gradually diminish and subside respectively.

Otherwise, winds will become variable 10 knots or less through
Sunday night and begin to increase from the southwest on Monday.

Small craft advisory will likely be needed again late Monday night
into Wednesday as flow shifts around to the southwest.

Cle watches warnings advisories
Oh... None.

Pa... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for
lez145>149.

Synopsis... Kec
near term... Kec sefcovic
short term... Lombardy
long term... Lombardy
aviation... Sefcovic
marine... Lombardy


Weather Reporting Stations
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Wind History for Fairport, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cleveland / Cuyahoga, OH24 mi46 minWNW 1010.00 miOvercast39°F30°F70%1024 hPa

Wind History from CGF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW17
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W15W15W12--------------W15
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W10SW10W14W14W14NW10NW10
1 day agoSE12SE14S10S10S10S10S8S6SW6--------------SW18
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2 days agoNE6CalmCalmNE6E6E6E5CalmE5--------------E7SE11SE12S12SE12SE12SE12SE11

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.