Wednesday, March29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Detroit Beach, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:17AMSunset 7:58PM Wednesday March 29, 2017 1:02 PM EDT (17:02 UTC) Moonrise 7:31AMMoonset 8:57PM Illumination 5% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ162 Lake Erie Open Waters From Maumee Bay To Reno Beach Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Reno Beach To The Islands Oh- 948 Am Edt Wed Mar 29 2017
This afternoon..Northeast winds 10 knots or less becoming east. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight..East winds 5 to 15 knots increasing to 10 to 20 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..East winds 15 to 25 knots becoming northeast. A chance of rain showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet.
Thursday night..East winds 15 to 25 knots diminishing to around 10 knots overnight. Rain showers. A chance of Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..East winds 10 knots or less becoming north. A chance of Thunderstorms in the morning. Rain showers...then a chance of rain showers overnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..North winds 10 knots or less. A chance of rain showers in the morning. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..North winds 10 knots or less becoming east. Waves 1 foot or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LEZ162 Expires:201703292030;;262266 FZUS61 KCLE 291348 GLFLE OPEN LAKE FORECAST FOR LAKE ERIE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 948 AM EDT WED MAR 29 2017 FOR WATERS BEYOND FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKE ERIE .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE 30.40 INCHES WILL EXTEND SOUTH FROM CANADA TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE 29.40 INCHES WILL MOVE OUT OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND BE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE 30.20 INCHES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. LEZ162-163-292030-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Detroit Beach, MI
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location: 41.83, -83.25     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 291054
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
654 am edt Wed mar 29 2017

Aviation
Aside from a few to perhaps a brief period of scattered CU this
afternoon, skies will remain clear below 12k ft as strong high
pressure remains anchored to the north of the region today.

For dtw... Light winds early this morning will transition to
northeast around 10 knots by 15 or 16z as daytime heating deepens
the mixed layer.

//dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.

Prev discussion
Issued at 339 am edt Wed mar 29 2017
discussion...

quiet day today with really only minor temperature and cloud trend
concerns as surface high pressure sliding across northern ontario in
conjunction with mid level ridging stay in control of the weather.

Temperatures will stay similar to Tuesday with highs around 50,
except in the shadows of the lakes where cool easterly flow may keep
them in the 40s. Even with a slightly cooler thermal profile due to
continued east/northeast flow into the region around the area of
high pressure, a good deal of late march Sun with diurnal mixing up
to around 900mb should get us a degree or so above Tuesday highs.

Some possible stratus off lake huron may stall the warming trend
across the north, but will have to wait and see the extend and
thickness of those clouds. Otherwise may just see some cirrus
sliding in later in the day ahead of the next system.

The next low pressure system is currently over the southern plains
embedded in a deep closed upper low. A strong jet rounding the base
of the upper level trough will start to shear some energy
northeastward into the western great lakes later tonight. The low
itself will then track up through western lake erie on Friday. With
the system originating so far south with strong 850mb moisture
transport ahead of the trough, should get a widespread region of
soaking rain. Model estimates for Thursday morning through Friday
afternoon are around 0.75 to 1" of rainfall. Models have been locked
onto this system for a few period now but there are a few questions
that remain, mainly ptype at the onset Thursday morning, and how
long does precip linger on Friday on the backside?
thermal profile Wednesday night is cold enough for some snow across
the north and surface dew points around 30 will aid in that with wet
bulb cooling. Models hold off on the better moisture and forcing til
after 12z Thursday but do continue to advertise a lead 700mb fgen
band with a midlevel PV filament getting shed from the low still to
the south. Right entrance region of the upper level jet will be a
bit further north but still close enough to support the forcing.

They've held firm on this and current IR satellite images over iowa
are showing hints of this feature. If this forcing can set up over
the area while the cold air is still in place, locations north of
about i69 could end up seeing some wet snow before the changeover to
rain. Introduced some light accums (less than 1 inch) to start
giving credit to this. The 850mb jet will slide through lower mi
around 15-18z Thursday bringing with it a slug of moisture and
warmer air aloft which should result in all rain.

The deformation band will linger over SE mi on Friday as the low is
slow to exit east. Always a question of how fast the ridge and drier
air behind it can scour things out but for now will keep rain going
through the day. After having temperatures bottom out on Thursday,
likely in the low/mid 40s, temperatures will trend back up through
early next week as high pressure through the weekend with periods of
southerly flow allow for a steady increase. Next chance of rain
looks to be Monday/Tuesday as the southern stream remains active,
sending the next system through the ohio valley once again.

Marine...

modest north-northeast winds will persist through the day as strong
high pressure expands from the northern to the eastern great lakes.

Gusts will continue to top 20 knots at times across the southern
lake huron basin and saginaw bay. A tightening of the easterly
gradient will take hold tonight into Thursday night as low pressure
lifts into the ohio valley and strong high pressure holds to the
northeast of the region. Shallow cold air across lake huron will
support neutral to slightly unstable low level conditions, allowing
winds to increase. Small craft advisory conditions are likely to
develop on Thursday and possibly persist through Friday as winds
back to the northeast. The low level wind field will be strongest
across northern and central lake huron, where there is a high
probability that wind gusts will reach 30 knots. There is a chance
that gale force gusts will develop thurs night into Fri morning.

This will be monitored over the next couple forecast cycles in the
event some gale warnings need to be issued. The surface low will
pass east of the region Fri night, with a diminishing trend to the
winds following in its wake.

Hydrology...

a slow moving low pressure system will bring a few rounds of
precipitation to the region Thursday through Friday. Precipitation
will arrive on Thursday along a lead warm front. While most of this
will fall as rain, some snow is possible across the northern saginaw
valley and thumb region. Additional rainfall will then occur on
Friday as the main low pressure system lifts across the eastern
great lakes. Two-day total rainfall amounts from this system are
forecast to range from three quarters of an inch to one inch. These
amounts spread over two days should result in just minor rises to
area rivers and streams.

Dtx watches/warnings/advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Sc
discussion... Drk
marine... ... .Sc
hydrology... .Sc
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 15 mi44 min ENE 5.1 G 7 42°F 1024.9 hPa34°F
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH 26 mi62 min E 8 G 9.9 40°F 1025.8 hPa (+0.4)
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH 34 mi44 min E 5.1 G 6 38°F 36°F
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 49 mi62 min ENE 4.1 G 5.1 42°F 1026.1 hPa (+0.4)

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Monroe, Custer Airport, MI12 mi71 minESE 510.00 miFair49°F35°F59%1025.4 hPa
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI19 mi69 minENE 410.00 miFair49°F34°F57%1025.4 hPa
Toledo - Toledo Executive Airport, OH22 mi69 minESE 710.00 miFair49°F39°F69%1026 hPa
Lambertville, Toledo Suburban Airport, MI23 mi69 minSE 810.00 miFair49°F37°F64%1025.4 hPa

Wind History from TTF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN9
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N9N8N10N10NW5N9N4N8NE3NE4E3CalmN3CalmN3N3N3N5N4NE4E6SE9
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1 day agoW6W6W6SW7SW7CalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmN3N6N6N9NE4NE6NE4NE4N6N8N9N8N9
2 days agoE6SE7S5E4E4CalmCalmCalmSW3S10S9S8CalmCalmSW3SW6SW8W7SW6SW7SW7W10W5SW9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.