Sunday, June25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Detroit Beach, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:58AMSunset 9:14PM Sunday June 25, 2017 11:40 PM EDT (03:40 UTC) Moonrise 6:48AMMoonset 9:39PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ162 Lake Erie Open Waters From Maumee Bay To Reno Beach Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Reno Beach To The Islands Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From The Islands To Vermilion Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Vermilion To Avon Point Oh- 1005 Pm Edt Sun Jun 25 2017
Overnight..West winds 10 to 20 knots. A chance of showers late. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers from late morning on. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet.
Monday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest. A chance of showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west. A chance of showers in the morning. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday night..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms Wednesday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Showers and Thunderstorms likely. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet.
Friday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Showers and Thunderstorms likely. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
LEZ162 Expires:201706260815;;825214 FZUS61 KCLE 260205 GLFLE Open Lake Forecast for Lake Erie National Weather Service Cleveland OH 1005 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017 For waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on Lake Erie Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...A trough of low pressure averaging 30.00 inches will continue to linger over the eastern Great Lakes through Monday. High pressure 30.20 inches from the Plains states will move to the Ohio Valley by late Tuesday and the east coast Wednesday. A warm front will develop over the Mississippi Valley and move northeast across the Great Lakes Wednesday night into Thursday. Low pressure 29.80 inches from the northern Plains will reach the central Great Lakes Friday and stall. LEZ162>165-260815-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Detroit Beach, MI
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location: 41.83, -83.25     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 252339
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
739 pm edt Sun jun 25 2017

Aviation
Main 300mb trough axis will push into southeastern michigan this
evening encapsulating all of the central great lakes region. System
relative equivalent potential temperature plan view analyses show
that main axis of midlevel moisture remains sheared out across the
northern cwa. This corresponds well with light shower activity that
has been plaguing the forecast area today. There is little
forecasted movement of this moisture axis tonight. Throw in some
possible moisture flux upstream off of lake michigan and a low
chance for a shower will continue throughout the night. Made the
decision to forgo any precipitation mention tonight. Otherwise,VFR
to MVFR stratocumulus will be widespread solely due to the magnitude
of cold air in the lower troposphere. Introduced a tempo group for
showers during the late afternoon for kmbs and kfnt. Compact surface
trough and main cyclonic circulation will push down into the
northern CWA and track across during the afternoon. This added
convergence should be more than enough to focus another persistence
forecast.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* low to moderate for cigs AOB 5kft tonight.

* low for winds reaching crosswind thresholds from 270 degrees

Prev discussion
Issued at 327 pm edt Sun jun 25 2017
discussion...

the train of embedded upper level waves PV anomalies and re-
enforcing cold pools will continue through Monday evening. 12z apx
raob checked in with an impressive -24 c temp at 500 mb, and based
off the SPC climo sounding site, appears to be record territory.

Fortunately, surface dew pts have lowered into the 45 to 50 degree
range (outside of where it has rained), which has limited surface
based instability to 500 j kg or less and no lightning detected so
far this afternoon over southeast michigan.

The main large circulation tracking through lake huron
this morning did touch off thunderstorms over lake
huron and eastern thumb region however. Meanwhile, a smaller
circulation over central lower michigan is advancing southeast,
allowing for some modest mid level moisture advection, and should
maintain some shower activity into early evening hours. Cool airmass
(mid single temps at 850 mb) and west-southwest flow behind this
feature tonight. Some lake michigan enhancement showers appear
possible as 850 mb thermal trough swings east, as lapse rates in the
5-10 kft (per rap) layer appear sufficient to support isolated to
possibly low scattered activity working east overnight.

One last upper level wave cold pool, currently near western lake
superior slowly dropping southeast, with 850 mb temps progged to
lower to 2 to 4 c Monday evening. However, showers may be hard to
come by during the day as drying 850-700 mb theta-e minimum
encompasses southeast michigan. As been the case the past couple of
days, best chance of activity will be toward saginaw bay, closest
to the mid level circulation trough and the mild waters of saginaw
bay.

Upper level northwest confluent flow allowing for large anticyclone
to build into midwest Monday night, and into the western ohio valley
during Tuesday. Late june insolation and westerly flow over southern
lower michigan should allow for good temp recovery, with highs
reaching into the mid 70s.

A surface high pressure and ridging aloft will keep conditions dry
across michigan during the morning and afternoon hours as low level
clouds start to build into the region ahead of a low pressure
system. As the surface low moves from minnesota into northern lower
michigan Wednesday into Thursday, it will drag along a warm front
with it, bringing likely rain and thunderstorm chances to southeast
michigan. Confidence it moderate to borderline-high regarding seeing
scattered showers and storms throughout Thursday, however,
additional model runs will be needed to pinpoint timing, as the
ecmwf run brings the precipitation in late Wednesday into Thursday,
while the GFS and gem runs hold off on precipitation until the early
to mid-morning hours on Thursday. This system will be something to
keep an eye on given the flooding and saturated conditions across
central michigan, as localized heavy rainfall will be possible with
storms that do develop, given the impressive moisture transport and
pw values averaging 1.6 inches.

Confidence is starting to rise regarding rain and thunderstorm
chances late Friday into Saturday as a weak surface low pushes
northeast from iowa into lower michigan, as seen in the ECMWF and
gem runs. For comparison, the ECMWF run had this low coming through
michigan throughout Friday during yesterday's run, and it was absent
from the gem run. The GFS fails to resolve a low pressure system
tracking into michigan unlike the gem ecmwf, however, it holds a
weak low pressure system across the u.P, which would allow a warm
front to provide some lift for showers and thunderstorms. As the
expected low moves east out of michigan by Saturday, rain chances
will diminish, especially as ridging aloft builds into the midwest
early next week.

Marine...

fresh westerly breeze over nearshore zones will ease tonight
allowing the small craft advisories for lakes erie and saint clair
to expire on schedule. Resurgence of gusty west wind on Monday will
likely warrant another round of small craft advisories including at
least saginaw bay and lake erie. Light to moderate wind will then
dominate until the arrival of the next system Wednesday into
Thursday. Moderate southerly wind will transition to fresh
southeasterly during this time, the stable southerly fetch limiting
gustiness.

Hydrology...

scattered diurnal showers will continue this afternoon and again on
Monday. Though rain may briefly be heavy on a local basis, basin
average rainfall is expected to remain under one tenth of inch on
each day and no noteworthy response to area rivers and streams is
anticipated. The next chance for organized rainfall will be
Wednesday night into Thursday when up to one half inch of rain will
be possible. The tittabawassee river crested Saturday evening and
remains in major flood stage at this time. However, river levels
continue to fall and flood waters will follow suit. Meanwhile, the
saginaw river continues to slowly rise and will crest on Tuesday
morning at moderate flood stage.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... Small craft advisory from 10 am to 8 pm edt Monday for lhz421-422.

Lake st clair... Small craft advisory from noon to 8 pm edt Monday for lcz460.

Michigan waters of lake erie... Small craft advisory from noon to 8 pm edt Monday for lez444.

Aviation... ..Cb
discussion... Sf am
marine... ... .Jvc
hydrology... .Jvc
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 3 mi41 min W 15 G 17 68°F
45165 9 mi21 min W 9.7 G 14 68°F 71°F1 ft49°F
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 15 mi41 min W 5.1 G 6 65°F 1018 hPa (+0.9)44°F
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH 26 mi41 min W 17 G 18 69°F 1017.4 hPa (+1.0)
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH 34 mi41 min SW 2.9 G 7 65°F 1018.3 hPa (+0.9)46°F
45005 - W ERIE 28NM Northwest of Cleveland, OH 46 mi31 min W 16 G 18 69°F 69°F1017.3 hPa51°F
HHLO1 - Huron Light, OH 48 mi41 min WSW 7 G 8 65°F 1017.3 hPa (+1.0)
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 49 mi41 min W 2.9 G 5.1 63°F 1017.6 hPa (+0.7)

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Monroe, Custer Airport, MI12 mi48 minN 010.00 miFair59°F47°F65%1017.6 hPa
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI19 mi48 minW 310.00 miFair62°F46°F56%1017.3 hPa
Toledo - Toledo Executive Airport, OH22 mi48 minWSW 410.00 miMostly Cloudy62°F48°F60%1018.1 hPa
Lambertville, Toledo Suburban Airport, MI23 mi47 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy57°F49°F75%1018.3 hPa

Wind History from TTF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW3NW3W3W5CalmW3SW4W4SW6W11
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1 day agoW5W3W5W4W3W5W4W5W7W8W9W10W14
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2 days agoSW6SW7SW9SW10SW8SW7S8CalmSW6W7W8CalmSW5SW9SW12W5W10
G14
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.