Friday, January19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Detroit Beach, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:54AMSunset 5:34PM Friday January 19, 2018 12:14 PM EST (17:14 UTC) Moonrise 9:26AMMoonset 8:10PM Illumination 9% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ162 Lake Erie Open Waters From Ripley To Buffalo Ny- Lake Erie Open Waters From Maumee Bay To Reno Beach Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Reno Beach To The Islands Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From The Islands To Vermilion Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Vermilion To Avon Point Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Avon Point To Willowick Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on-the-lake Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Geneva-on-the-lake To Conneaut Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 933 Am Est Fri Jan 19 2018
This afternoon..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. The lake is mostly ice covered.
Tonight..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots.
Saturday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 5 to 15 knots. A chance of drizzle overnight.
Sunday..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming south. A chance of light rain or drizzle during the day, then a chance of rain showers Sunday night.
Monday..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots. Rain showers likely.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west. A chance of rain and snow showers during the day, then a chance of snow showers Tuesday night. Waves omitted due to the lake being mostly ice covered.
LEZ162 Expires:201801192115;;682290 FZUS61 KCLE 191433 GLFLE Open Lake Forecast for Lake Erie National Weather Service Cleveland OH 933 AM EST Fri Jan 19 2018 For waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on Lake Erie Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure of 29.30 inches will pass north of the Great Lakes tonight. High pressure of 30.40 inches centered across the Gulf Coast will drift east and move off the southeast coast Sunday. Low pressure of 29.80 inches will track across the central Great Lakes Monday night, pulling another cold front across Lake Erie on Tuesday. LEZ061-162>169-192115-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Detroit Beach, MI
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location: 41.83, -83.25     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 191020
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
520 am est Fri jan 19 2018

Aviation
Quiet aviation conditions continue across the region as high
pressure remains in control. Current satellite imagery shows waves
of cirrus clouds streaming into lower mi from the system moving into
the midwest. Southwest winds will again become gusty this afternoon
but look to top out around 20 knots. Terminals should remain inVFR
conditions until late tonight when a warm front lifts through
potentially opening the door for MVFR CIGS to fill in.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* moderate for cigs AOB 5kft after 08z Saturday morning.

Prev discussion
Issued at 357 am est Fri jan 19 2018
discussion...

upper level flow eases into a period of lower amplitude westerlies
over the next 48 hours, as a larger scale pattern adjustment
refocuses the predominant north-central canadian lower height
anomaly back north of the border, leaving flow of pacific origin to
govern conditions. Steady low level southwest flow tucked beneath a
gradually increasing upper height field will sustain a stretch of
above normal temperatures lasting into the weekend. Most noteworthy
increase in the thermal profile expected today, as the 850-925 mb
layer warms a solid 5-7 degrees from readings noted yesterday,
thanks in part to a low level column that remains absent of
meaningful moisture. Thickening high cloud through the day, but no
signal per recent observations or near term model guidance to
suggest low stratus becomes a concern until the weekend. Highs
largely in the upper 30s. Nocturnal cooling potential tonight
contained by a persistent 10kt southwest gradient and thick canopy
of cirrus. Lows in the vicinity of 30 degrees.

Milder conditions hold firm throughout the weekend period. Any
additional warming of the resident airmass will remain muted as the
southwest gradient eases and low stratus becomes an increasing
factor. This will place maximum daytime readings around 40 degrees
each day. Lack of tangible ascent will favor dry conditions through
at leas the first half of the weekend. Noted increase in low level
saturation may introduce the potential for some drizzle to develop
starting Sunday morning. However, prefer a conservative stance at
this stage with model guidance often providing an overzealous
response with a significant contribution to the near surface moist
layer from snowmelt see NAM and arw . Should drizzle materialize,
there could be a small window where brief sub-freezing temperatures
support freezing drizzle.

Elongated area of strong height falls crashing into the west coast
tonight will organize into a deep closed system as it enters the
central CONUS by late this weekend. This system will then slowly
wobble through the great lakes early next week. Maturing warm sector
environment immediately downstream will send a warm frontal
structure toward lower michigan Sunday night and Monday. Period of
isentropic ascent across the frontal slope will bring increasing
rainfall potential during this time. Forcing transitions to a
period of deep layer dynamic ascent sometime Monday as both low and
upper level jet forcing impinges on the region. Given the degree of
mid level theta-e advection, an elevated rumble of thunder not out
of the question Monday. Mildest day of this stretch, with readings
well into the 40s.

Cooling thermal profile throughout Tuesday in the wake of the
surface low passage. Moist cyclonic flow beneath the passing 500 mb
cold pool will bring the potential for some snow showers. This
inbound air mass will lack any arctic connection, leaving conditions
still rather seasonable as the coldest of this air settles in for
Wednesday. Renewed warming trend then commences late next week.

Marine...

the great lakes is positioned on the northwest side of an area of
high pressure centered over the gulf coast states and will remain so
heading into the weekend. This will keep a persistent warm southwest
flow in place through Saturday night before they back to
southeasterly ahead of the next low pressure system. This low will
deepen as it starts lifting into the western great lakes on Sunday
before working through the central great lakes on Monday and Monday
night. Winds will be elevated but gusts will be tempered by warm air
advection heading into the weekend.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Drk
discussion... Mr
marine... ... .Drk
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 3 mi35 min SW 21 G 23 28°F
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 15 mi45 min WSW 13 G 19 30°F 1015.3 hPa15°F
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH 26 mi75 min SSW 18 G 22 28°F 1016.7 hPa (-0.5)
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH 34 mi45 min SSW 11 G 16 31°F 1016.2 hPa17°F
HHLO1 - Huron Light, OH 48 mi75 min SW 15 G 23 29°F 1014.9 hPa (-0.3)
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 49 mi75 min SW 15 G 20 29°F 1014.2 hPa (-0.0)

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Last
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G17
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G20
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G12
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SW7
G12
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G14
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W5
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G7
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G10
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G10

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Monroe, Custer Airport, MI12 mi80 minWSW 15 G 2010.00 miFair29°F15°F57%1014.6 hPa
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI19 mi80 minWSW 14 G 2010.00 miFair30°F17°F59%1014.6 hPa
Toledo - Toledo Executive Airport, OH22 mi82 minSW 18 G 2610.00 miFair and Breezy29°F17°F61%1016.5 hPa
Lambertville, Toledo Suburban Airport, MI23 mi79 minWSW 11 G 1810.00 miFair31°F16°F55%1014.6 hPa

Wind History from TTF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW11W13SW12
G19
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SW13SW9
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SW11SW15
G25
SW15
G23
SW13
G19
SW13SW11SW11SW11
G15
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SW11SW11SW10
G16
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1 day agoSW8SW11SW12SW14
G18
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G26
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SW9SW9
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2 days ago----SW9SW8W10SW10SW9SW7SW6SW7SW7W5W6W4SW3SW4SW5SW6SW4W5W5SW5SW6SW9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.