Friday, April20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Detroit Beach, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 6:42AMSunset 8:22PM Friday April 20, 2018 4:29 PM EDT (20:29 UTC) Moonrise 9:23AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 29% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ162 Lake Erie Open Waters From Maumee Bay To Reno Beach Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Reno Beach To The Islands Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From The Islands To Vermilion Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Vermilion To Avon Point Oh- 350 Pm Edt Fri Apr 20 2018
Tonight..Variable winds less than 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday..Light and variable winds. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday night..East winds less than 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday..East winds 5 to 15 knots. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Monday..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east. A chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north. A chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
LEZ162 Expires:201804210215;;247602 FZUS61 KCLE 201950 GLFLE Open Lake Forecast for Lake Erie National Weather Service Cleveland OH 350 PM EDT Fri Apr 20 2018 For waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on Lake Erie Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS... High pressure averaging 30.50 inches across western lakes will shift across the eastern lakes over the weekend. High pressure will move off the New England coast Monday with a ridge lingering across the Great Lakes through Tuesday. Low pressure 29.70 inches from the Upper Midwest will be near Lake Erie Wednesday. LEZ162>165-210215-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Detroit Beach, MI
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location: 41.83, -83.25     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 201900
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
300 pm edt Fri apr 20 2018

Discussion
Temps pretty much on target today rising into the low to mid 50s
except mid upper 40s in the thumb under full insolation. Extremely
dry 12z sounding fully supportive of cloud free skies for the
balance of the afternoon as surface dewpoints have fallen into the
teens with deep diurnal mixing. The dry boundary layer, clear skies,
and a gradient sufficiently weak to allow for decoupling early in
the evening will be supportive of another chilly night. Thin cirrus
already spreading across lake michigan will gradually spread over
the area and thicken through tonight, eventually putting a floor on
low temps in the upper 20s and low 30s per met mav statistical
guidance, which were both on the cooler side of the solution
envelope.

Mid and high clouds are widespread over the central us today in
association with the closed low centered near the 4-corners at press
time. 12z nwp appears to have initialized well with mid upper
tropospheric moisture fields and progged soundings for Saturday
suggest pessimism. Forecast soundings from the GFS indicate full
saturation from the troposphere down to 500mb. Overcast skies will
dominate for the balance of the day across the south. Given
virtually no change in the resident thermal profile from today,
temps have been lowered into the low 50s south of m59. Would not be
entirely surprised to see some locations stuck in the upper 40s, but
will give the mid shift a last minute opportunity to make that
adjustment if needed. Confluent flow pivoting through the great
lakes from the north will force the cloud shield south sufficiently
early in the day to allow temps to rebound in the saginaw valley.

The thumb will be limited by cool onshore flow due to the strong
lake aggregate that will limit mixing depths.

As the closed low meanders from the 4-corners today into the lower
ms valley by late Sunday, northern stream energy will force upper
ridging over the great lakes for the latter half of the weekend.

Subsequent modification of the thermal field may be too late to make
too much of a difference as the 12z GFS indicates 850mb temps will
remain below 0c until 21z Sunday afternoon. Therefore suspect Sunday
will be quite similar to today with no expectation for clouds and
highs only limited by the cool airmass over the region. A stronger
easterly gradient as the lake aggregate translates east beneath
progressive upper ridging will support highs near 60 west of us-23
and in the mid 50s over the eastern CWA where mixing depths will be
more limited in the lake shadows.

The stretch of dry weather will continue through Tuesday with high
pressure remaining in control at the surface with a split-flow
pattern aloft. Heading into Wednesday, a closed upper low over the
southeast CONUS will open up and merge with incoming northern stream
shortwave energy diving across the northern plains. The long range
guidance diverges significantly in the handling of this interaction,
but enough moisture advecting north across the region will lead to a
period of scattered showers late Tuesday and continuing into
Wednesday night. A secondary closed upper low amidst deepening
longwave troughing over the eastern CONUS will continue to lead to
unsettled weather conditions heading into the weekend.

Temperatures on Monday and Tuesday will be the warmest in quite some
time, with high temperatures reaching well into the 60s. As showers
overspread the region during the midweek period, temperatures will
cool, but still remain in the 50s for daytime highs.

Marine
High pressure will dominate the region for the next few days. High
will slowly drift eastward, resulting in weakening winds tonight
that will remain light and variable through the weekend. Light
southerly winds will emerge Monday as the high exits to the east.

Unsettled weather likely to return by late Tuesday into Wednesday as
an upper trough pivots through the great lakes.

Prev discussion
Issued at 101 pm edt Fri apr 20 2018
aviation...

vfr conditions to continue through the period as surface high
pressure settles over the great lakes this afternoon. Light
north-northwesterly flow will gradually diminish into the evening
and overnight hours, while a dry column and subtle subsidence will
maintain mostly clear skies. Some high cirrus clouds will move in
late in the period as moisture spills over the ridge axis upstream.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Discussion... Jvc irl
marine... ... .Mr
aviation... ..Tf
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 3 mi49 min SE 8.9 G 8.9 44°F
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 15 mi41 min ENE 5.1 G 8 51°F 1030.6 hPa25°F
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH 26 mi29 min SSE 5.1 G 5.1 47°F 1031.8 hPa (-1.2)
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH 34 mi41 min WNW 1.9 G 2.9 47°F 1032 hPa17°F
HHLO1 - Huron Light, OH 48 mi29 min E 1.9 G 4.1 44°F 1030.8 hPa (-0.4)
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 49 mi29 min SSE 8.9 G 9.9 46°F 1031.2 hPa (-1.0)

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Last
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NW14
G23
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NE11
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W18
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G11
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G16

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Monroe, Custer Airport, MI12 mi34 minS 11 G 1510.00 miFair53°F27°F38%1030.5 hPa
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI19 mi33 minS 810.00 miFair48°F31°F54%1030.8 hPa
Toledo - Toledo Executive Airport, OH22 mi36 minN 010.00 miFair56°F19°F24%1031.4 hPa
Lambertville, Toledo Suburban Airport, MI23 mi34 minN 610.00 miFair58°F16°F19%1030.5 hPa

Wind History from TTF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW13
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G16
N7E5NE4CalmCalmCalmCalmW4NW5CalmCalmNW4NW4NW4NW5W5N5W4CalmE4
1 day agoNE12SE10
G17
E9
G15
NE5
G8
NE6NE6NE7NE5NE3N4N7N9NW4NW6NW6NW8NW7NW9NW11NW11
G17
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G19
2 days agoW12
G19
W13
G20
W11W14W11W10W6W8W3W6NW5NW5NW4NW4CalmCalmCalmE3CalmS4S4CalmE6NE10

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.