Thursday, July19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Detroit Beach, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 6:14AMSunset 9:05PM Thursday July 19, 2018 2:05 AM EDT (06:05 UTC) Moonrise 12:46PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 37% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ162 Lake Erie Open Waters From Maumee Bay To Reno Beach Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Reno Beach To The Islands Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From The Islands To Vermilion Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Vermilion To Avon Point Oh- 907 Pm Edt Wed Jul 18 2018
Overnight..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..South winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Friday night..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the evening, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet.
Saturday..South winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 5 to 15 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms during the day, then a chance of showers Sunday night. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms during the day. Waves 1 foot or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LEZ162 Expires:201807190815;;692397 FZUS61 KCLE 190107 GLFLE Open Lake Forecast for Lake Erie National Weather Service Cleveland OH 907 PM EDT Wed Jul 18 2018 For waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on Lake Erie Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...High pressure 30.10 inches over the central Great Lakes will shift to New England on Thursday. Low pressure 29.60 inches will move over Wisconsin on Friday and then southeast to Ohio by Sunday morning. The low will move little on Sunday. The low will then become absorbed by a low pressure system over the southeastern United States on Monday with a trough extending north averaging 29.90 inches. LEZ162>165-190815-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Detroit Beach, MI
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location: 41.83, -83.25     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 190354
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
1154 pm edt Wed jul 18 2018

Aviation
The low level flow, while still light, will turn more southeasterly
during the morning. The added moisture flux off lake erie is likely
to result in more strato CU development around metro detroit this
morning, with a diurnal CU field expanding northwest to ptk, fnt and
possibly mbs during the course of the day. CIGS are expected to
initially be on the lower end of MVFR, but slowly rise into the
afternoon as daytime heating deepens the boundary layer.

Dtw threshold probabilities
* none

Prev discussion
Issued at 340 pm edt Wed jul 18 2018
discussion...

surface high pressure will dominate through tonight, diurnal cu
dissipating near sunset this evening. Cirrus will take its time
entering area skies to the west as it slowly spills over the
upstream ridge axis. Efficient radiating can be expected as a
result, potential only limited by the modestly cool nature of the
resident airmass as noted by 850mb temps still up around 10c or so.

Locations outside the urban heat island will have no issue falling
into the mid 50s, with an outside chance for upper 40s in the thumb.

Essentially a modified persistence forecast heading into Thursday as
deep layer subsidence acts as a check on depth of CU development and
increasing cirrus helps offset modest airmass modification. Once
again expecting highs in the low 80s with 60 or lower dewpoints.

Jet MAX around the periphery of the subtropical ridge over the sw
united states will foster the advance of a PV anomaly noted over the
northern plains this afternoon. This will in turn drive the
deepening of the closed low before cutting off from the mean flow
over the great lakes region heading into the weekend. Enhanced
southerlies attendant to the lead edge of the main height fall
corridor will favor an increased probability for showers during the
initial theta-e push from the south. The threat will be transient,
likely focused during the first half of Friday before lifting north
and east. Destabilization potential under cooling mid-level temps
will then govern pulse convective potential during Friday afternoon.

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast to stick
around through the weekend as the closed upper low slowly drifts
from the western great lakes into the ohio valley. With high
moisture content - pwat values on the order of 1.5 to 1.75 inches on
Saturday and early Sunday - expecting numerous showers with some
heavy downpours but the lack of good forcing and shear looks to keep
any thunderstorm activity generally disorganized. High temps will
top out around 80 degrees both Saturday and Sunday under mostly
cloudy skies.

A chance for isolated showers will persist into the early week as
moisture wraps around the northeast side of the upper low. Highs
will rise slightly into the lower to mid 80s by Tuesday as
thicknesses rebound in the wake of the departing system.

Marine...

a broad expanse of high pressure continues to bring ideal marine
conditions to lake huron through western lake erie marine areas
tonight and Thursday. Southeast wind gradually increases with a
minor wave response Thursday night and Friday as low pressure
organizes and moves toward the south end of lake michigan. This
system brings increasingly unsettled conditions in terms of wind,
waves, and weather from Friday night into the weekend as the low
slowly tracks across the great lakes.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Sc
discussion... Jvc tf
marine... ... .Bt
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 3 mi46 min SE 11 G 12 74°F
45165 9 mi26 min E 12 G 14 73°F 78°F1 ft56°F
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 15 mi36 min SSE 6 G 8.9 68°F 1018 hPa52°F
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH 26 mi66 min SE 8 G 11 73°F 1017.8 hPa (+0.5)
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH 34 mi36 min SSE 1.9 G 4.1 70°F 1018.8 hPa56°F
45005 - W ERIE 28NM Northwest of Cleveland, OH 46 mi26 min ESE 7.8 G 12 74°F 1018.1 hPa56°F
HHLO1 - Huron Light, OH 48 mi66 min SSW 2.9 G 6 66°F 1017.3 hPa (+0.0)
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 49 mi66 min E 5.1 G 8 70°F 1018.6 hPa (+0.7)

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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NE6
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G8
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Monroe, Custer Airport, MI12 mi68 minNNE 510.00 miFair60°F58°F94%1017.9 hPa
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI19 mi71 minN 010.00 miFair68°F59°F73%1017.9 hPa
Toledo - Toledo Executive Airport, OH22 mi73 minE 310.00 miFair65°F54°F68%1017.9 hPa
Lambertville, Toledo Suburban Airport, MI23 mi83 minN 010.00 miFair63°F53°F73%1017.9 hPa

Wind History from TTF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE3N8N3NW5N5N5N4NE4CalmE3N9W6E3SE7SE5SW5
G14
SW3S9CalmCalmS7N5W3NW4
1 day agoNW5NW3NW9N4W6W8W8N5NW5N7NW8NW7NW8NW7
G17
NW13
G20
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G19
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NW7N6CalmCalmNE5NE4NE3
2 days agoSW3CalmCalmCalmSW3SW6W6SW4SW5SW10
G14
NW8W6
G18
S14
G18
S10
G17
W4W6SW6SW3N4SE4CalmCalmW4W8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.