Monday, May29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
North Lakeville, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:10AMSunset 8:12PM Monday May 29, 2017 5:06 PM EDT (21:06 UTC) Moonrise 9:18AMMoonset 11:58PM Illumination 19% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ234 Buzzards Bay- 358 Pm Edt Mon May 29 2017
Tonight..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. Patchy fog. A chance of rain this evening. Vsby 1 to 3 nm... Decreasing to 1 nm or less after midnight.
Tue..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. Patchy fog. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Patchy fog. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height...which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 358 Pm Edt Mon May 29 2017
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Low pres will pass southeast of nantucket tonight and in its wake weak high pres will build south over the waters. The high will retreat northeast Tue and Tue night. A cold front will approach from the west on Wed...passing E of the waters late Wed night. West to southwesterly winds follow Thu...fri and Sat. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period...please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Lakeville, MA
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location: 41.84, -70.93     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 291959
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service taunton ma
359 pm edt Mon may 29 2017

Synopsis
Weak high pres will build across the region Wednesday bringing
dry weather but temperatures remaining below normal. An
approaching cold front may bring a few strong thunderstorms to
the northwest of a boston to providence corridor late Wednesday
afternoon and evening. Dry and seasonable weather follows
Thursday, but unsettled weather with showers at times may return
Friday into early next week but plenty hours of dry weather
will be mixed in too.

Near term until 6 am Tuesday morning
Showers assocd with mid level shortwave will be exiting the
region from west to east through late afternoon early evening
as the mid level dry slot moves in and the shortwave lifts to
the north. Rest of the night will be dry as maritimes sfc high
builds south across new eng. However, low clouds will persist
tonight given abundant low level moisture in place along with
patchy fog. Not much change in temps tonight with mins mostly in
the upper 40s.

Short term 6 am Tuesday morning through Tuesday night
Tuesday...

mid level trof moves into the gt lakes with SW flow aloft
across new eng. High pres will slowly drift offshore but sne
will remain under marine influence with onshore winds which will
keep temps cooler than normal. In addition, expect clouds to
linger across the region, especially in the west where low level
moisture is more prevalent. Some sunshine may develop in in the
afternoon across eastern new eng where low levels dry out a
bit. Highs mid upper 60s but cooler along the coast.

Models show decent instability axis developing across ny state
in the afternoon which will lead to some convection developing
to the west. No surface instability is forecast across new eng
due to marine influence, but instability parameters indicate
some elevated instability moving into the west in the afternoon.

Low risk of a few showers across western ma late afternoon,
otherwise dry conditions.

Tuesday night...

as mid level trof moves east across the gt lakes, low level
theta-e ridge moves into sne. Still no surface instability, but
expect a period of showers and isolated t-storms, especially
interior as weakening convection from the west moves into the
region, supported by deepening column moisture and elevated
instability axis with subzero swi and tt around 50. Mild night
with lows in the low mid 50s.

Long term Wednesday through Monday
Highlights...

* a few severe thunderstorms possible late Wed afternoon and evening
northwest of a boston to providence corridor
* dry and nice weather on tap for thu
* periods of showers possible at times Fri into early next week but
timing uncertain and plenty hours of dry weather expected too
* seasonable temps likely Wed into Sat but perhaps a return to
unseasonably cool weather next Sun mon
details...

Wednesday...

the main concern will revolve around convective severe weather
potential Wednesday afternoon and evening. As is typically the case
in southern new england, plenty of uncertainty at this point but
there are certainly some ingredients there that need to be watched.

Will break things down a bit more below.

A shortwave and bulk of its scattered precipitation will likely have
lifted east of the region by mid morning wed. The result will be a
period of subsidence with mainly dry weather into mid afternoon wed.

By late Wed afternoon and evening a potent shortwave cold pool aloft
will be approaching from the west. 500t drop to around -19c
resulting in relatively steep mid level lapse rates between 6.5c and
7c km. 0 to 6 km shear looks impressive between 40 and 50 knots.

With all that said, the biggest uncertainty is the amount of surface
heating that we receive, as model cross sections do indicate the
potential for lingering low clouds. If some partial sunshine
develops and high temps can reach the lower to middle 70s with
dewpoints in the 50s to near 60, surface instability should easily
exceed 1000 j kg.

So in a nutshell, the biggest uncertainty remains do we receive
enough heating to realize the potential instability wind fields. If
so, the risk for a few severe thunderstorms would exist. While
locally strong damaging wind gusts would be possible, the potential
for severe hail would also exist given the anomalous cold pool
aloft. The main risk is to the northwest of the boston to providence
corridor, particularly across western and northern ma closer to the
better dynamics and timing for that matter.

Thursday...

a nice day looks to be in the cards behind Wednesday's cold front.

Plenty of early june sunshine and a dry airmass in place should
allow for highs to reach into the lower to middle 70s in
many locations with comfortable humidity levels.

Friday through Monday...

the overall weather pattern will feature an upper trough over
eastern canada and into new england with below normal height fields.

This will suppress summertime heat and humidity well to our south.

Seasonable temps likely Fri sat, but some indications that a high
over eastern canada may result in another round of unseasonably cool
temps next Sun Mon but too far out to say for sure. The upper
trough nearby will make our region prone to periods of showers at
times, but also extended intervals of dry weather will also occur.

Timing is highly uncertain and it is really impossible to give much
more information in this time range.

Aviation 19z Monday through Saturday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Tuesday night ... Moderate confidence.

Through tonight... MVFR ifr conditions will continue. Patchy lifr
fog developing tonight, especially near the coast. Rain will
end from west to east 20-23z.

Tuesday... MVFR ifr CIGS will lift toVFR MVFR in the afternoon.

A few showers or an isold t-storm possible across western ma by
late afternoon.

Tuesday night... More MVFR ifr conditions with sct showers and
isold t-storms moving across the region.

Kbos taf... Moderate confidence in taf. Lowering vsbys likely as
fog redevelops but timing uncertain.

Kbdl taf... Moderate confidence in taf.

Outlook Wednesday through Saturday ... Moderate confidence.

Wednesday... Low to moderate confidence. MVFR-ifr conditions early
may improve to MVFR-vfr by afternoon. A few strong thunderstorms
possible late Wed afternoon evening mainly northwest of a boston to
providence corridor.

Thursday... Moderate to high confidence in mainlyVFR conditions.

Friday and Saturday... Low to moderate confidence. A period of MVFR-
ifr conditions possible in some low clouds and some showers, but
timing uncertain. Greatest risk for lower CIGS vsbys late Fri into
early sat.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Tuesday night ... High confidence.

Through tonight... Winds have diminished but SCA will continue
into early evening due to leftover 5-6 ft seas over southern
waters. Seas will subside below 5 ft tonight.

Tuesday... Se flow with speeds increasing to 15 kt in the
afternoon. Vsbys may be reduced in the morning due to fog, but
improving by afternoon.

Tuesday night... Southerly flow with speeds mostly 15 kt or less
but a few gusts to 20 kt possible across NE ma waters. Sct
showers developing with low risk for an isold t-storm. Patchy
fog may reduce vsbys.

Outlook Wednesday through Saturday ... Moderate confidence.

Wednesday through Saturday...

Wednesday and Thursday... Moderate to high confidence. Pressure
gradient should be weak enough to keep winds and seas below small
craft advisory thresholds. Main concern for mariners will be for
some fog, especially across our southern waters during the late
night early morning hours. Also, a few strong thunderstorms are
possible across our adjacent northeast ma waters late Wed wed
evening.

Friday and Saturday... Moderate confidence. Persistent long
southwest wind ahead of a cold front may result in seas building to
between 4 and 7 feet across our southern waters later Fri into sat.

Some showers and fog patches also may impact mariners at times.

Tides coastal flooding
Expecting about a 0.5 ft surge for the high tide tonight but
astronomical tides are lower than previous nights and minimal
wave action so do not expect any issues.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 10 pm edt this
evening for anz254>256.

Synopsis... Kjc frank
near term... Kjc
short term... Kjc
long term... Frank
aviation... Kjc frank
marine... Kjc frank
tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 16 mi49 min NE 12 G 14 53°F 1016.3 hPa
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 16 mi49 min 53°F 59°F1017.7 hPa
PVDR1 24 mi49 min NNE 6 G 8.9 53°F 1017.3 hPa49°F
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 24 mi49 min N 9.9 G 12 53°F 60°F1017.4 hPa
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 25 mi49 min ENE 5.1 G 8.9 53°F 58°F1016.9 hPa
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 26 mi55 min ENE 8 G 11 53°F 1017.2 hPa
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 26 mi82 min ENE 9.9 54°F 1017 hPa53°F
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 26 mi49 min 52°F 57°F1016.5 hPa
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 28 mi82 min 2.9 52°F 50°F
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 31 mi49 min N 7 G 11 53°F 56°F1016.9 hPa
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 31 mi67 min NNE 18 G 20 52°F 1016.5 hPa (+1.3)
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 31 mi55 min NE 13 G 14 53°F 58°F1017.5 hPa
44090 32 mi33 min 52°F2 ft
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 36 mi49 min 50°F 55°F1018.6 hPa
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 38 mi77 min NE 9.7 G 12 49°F 51°F3 ft1016.7 hPa (+0.7)
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 48 mi77 min 55°F3 ft1015.4 hPa (+1.6)

Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Taunton, Taunton Municipal Airport, MA6 mi75 minVar 510.00 miOvercast52°F46°F83%1017.2 hPa
New Bedford, New Bedford Regional Airport, MA11 mi74 minNE 710.00 miOvercast51°F48°F92%1016.6 hPa
Plymouth, Plymouth Municipal Airport, MA12 mi75 minNNE 92.00 miFog/Mist50°F48°F93%1017.4 hPa
Marshfield Airport, MA22 mi72 minNE 810.00 miOvercast52°F50°F94%1017.6 hPa

Wind History from TAN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--S4S4SE6S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE5E8E4E6------4NE8NE55N3
1 day agoS5SE4SE5SE3SE4SE5SE4SE5S5S5CalmCalmSE3CalmS3S553SW7SW5SW8S10S9SW5
2 days agoSW4W5CalmCalmCalmNE4CalmCalmCalmCalmW3W3CalmCalmNW33333N4--CalmS4SE6

Tide / Current Tables for Taunton, Taunton River, Massachusetts
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Taunton
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Mon -- 12:05 AM EDT     3.73 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:13 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:22 AM EDT     -0.37 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:18 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:38 PM EDT     3.13 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:29 PM EDT     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:10 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:58 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.73.632.11.20.4-0.1-0.4-0.30.21.12.133.12.82.11.40.70.1-0.1-0.10.41.12.1

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Cod Canal, Massachusetts Current
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Cape Cod Canal
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:32 AM EDT     -0.07 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:36 AM EDT     -5.09 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:11 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:45 AM EDT     0.04 knots Slack
Mon -- 09:17 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 09:52 AM EDT     4.85 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 01:22 PM EDT     -0.22 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:09 PM EDT     -4.71 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 07:13 PM EDT     0.21 knots Slack
Mon -- 08:08 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:10 PM EDT     4.42 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 11:55 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.4-2.3-4.1-5-5-4.4-31.73.74.64.84.53.72.1-2.7-4.2-4.7-4.5-3.5-1.62.844.44.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.