Thursday, March23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
North Lakeville, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:39AMSunset 7:02PM Thursday March 23, 2017 12:12 PM EDT (16:12 UTC) Moonrise 4:02AMMoonset 2:18PM Illumination 16% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ234 Buzzards Bay- 1045 Am Edt Thu Mar 23 2017
Today..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Freezing spray this morning.
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt...becoming W around 5 kt after midnight. Seas 1 foot or less.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt...increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of rain.
Fri night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt... Diminishing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming N in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of rain.
Sat night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of rain.
Sun..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. A chance of rain.
Sun night..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. Rain likely.
Mon..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. Rain likely.
Mon night..NE winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. A chance of rain. Seas are reported as significant wave height...which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 1045 Am Edt Thu Mar 23 2017
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. High pres slowly builds over the waters today and will move E of the waters Fri. A cold front will pass across the waters from the N on Sat...stay S of the waters on Sunday...the return as a warm front Mon. Low pres will cross the southern waters on Mon. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period...please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Lakeville, MA
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location: 41.84, -70.93     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 231453
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service taunton ma
issued by national weather service upton ny
1053 am edt Thu mar 23 2017

Synopsis
Blustery and very cold conditions will moderate some today.

High pressure will move off the eastern seaboard Friday,
bringing windy and milder conditions. Unsettled weather this
weekend, with potential for a variety of precipitation types.

Near term /through tonight/
Forecast is on track with only minor changes made to reflect
current conditions
departing upper level trough and approaching ridge will result
in tight pressure gradient. 925 mb jet near 30 kts will mix down
this morning, but begin to relax as surface high pressure moves
overhead during the afternoon hours. Plenty of sunshine today
will help warm temperatures into the 30s with a low prob of a
site or two hitting 40f.

Short term /Friday through Friday night/
Tonight...

high pressure will move off the mid atlantic coast. Expecting
winds to become light and variable for a time, before becoming
southwest late tonight. Not ideal radiational cooling
conditions, as mid and high level clouds should arrive late
this evening, and especially after midnight.

Friday...

high pressure continues to move offshore during the day. A
front is likely to stall just to our north Friday. A weak mid
level shortwave passing by will assist any overrunning to produce
light precipitation during the morning hours. Timing will be
everything. There is a window for some light snow early Friday
morning. Once temperatures start to rise after daybreak, snow
will transition to rain. There could also be a brief period of
sleet or freezing rain during this transition. Have high
confidence in the overall trend, but only moderate confidence in
the precipitation types. This will need to be monitored closely
over the next 24 hours.

Strong southwest low level jet will drive the overrunning
process, but also provide the momentum for gusty winds,
especially during the afternoon when mixing is greatest. It
still appears the greatest risk for gusts over 30 mph to be
along the boston-providence corridor and southeast from there.

While MAX temperatures should make a 5-10 degree rise from
today, they should still be slightly below normal.

Long term /Saturday through Wednesday/
Highlights...

* above average temps on Saturday with a few showers
* low confidence next sun-tues with unsettled weather possible at
times with some rain, ice and/or snow possible
* moderating temperatures by mid-next week
pattern overview...

00z models and ensembles are in agreement with the general synoptic
pattern for the long term. Uncertainty increases in the extended do
to mesoscale and thermal issues. Split flow aloft with closed low
over the southern plains and northern stream across southern canada.

The initial closed 500 mb will slowly move into the midwest over the
weekend. This low deamplifies into an open wave as it comes towards
the northeast early next week. Due to the confluent flow aloft, high
pressure persists over northern new england keeping surface
temperatures cool, resulting in mixed precip at times for the
weekend into early next week. The models have slowed again compared
to 22.00z guidance but are similar in timing. Another open wave
moves through the flow during the mid-week with the GFS more
amplified versus the progressive ec. Still a lot of uncertainty with
this timeframe.

Details...

Friday night into Saturday... Moderate confidence.

A bit tricky forecast is in store for this timeframe. Used a non-
diurnal trend for the overnight hours thanks to increasing waa. 850
mb temps Saturday morning will be close to 8c but drop through the
day as cold front begins to slide southward. Surface temperatures
will reach into the mid 50s, cannot rule out a few 60s if the mid-
level ridge continues to build and slows the timing of the front.

Along the front, there could be a few rain showers but not expecting
widespread rainfall as heights continue to build overhead.

Saturday night into Sunday... Moderate confidence.

Cold front will pass through southern new england dropping surface
temps below freezing. The timing of the cold air drainage from the
high pressure over northern new england will determine if precip
type remains all rain, or if snow and/or mixed precip develops. Mid-
level ridging could keep a warm layer around 850 mb which would aid
in the mixed p-type. This is something to watch in the coming days.

For Sunday, cold front will stall somewhere between southern new
england and the mid-atlantic as high pressure begins to move
southeast into the gulf of maine. Depending on how close the high
pressure gets, we could see a dry Sunday or a few showers. One thing
to keep an eye on is the easterly flow, which could keep the low
level moist resulting in drizzle. Still a lot of uncertainty with
this time frame.

Sunday night Monday into Wednesday... Low confidence.

While guidance is in agreement synoptically, still a lot of details
to work out for this portion of the forecast. Biggest uncertainties
will be the placement of the upper level low and how quickly it will
diffuse early next week.

Right now, the stalled front looks to return back north as a warm
front late Sunday into Monday, as surface low pressure moves into
the great lakes. Although warmer air aloft should move easily back
into the region, the low-level cold air may be a little tougher to
dislodge this time due to the nearby surface high pressure. Believe
this is the timeframe where we will see the heaviest precip due to
passage of the open wave. Another open wave right behind this one
will push through the flow developing around shot at precip on
Tuesday.

As mentioned before, still a lot of uncertainty as to the thermal
profiles. Continue to believe that there could be a period where the
region could see a mixed bag of precip with the highest confidence
Sunday night into Monday and another shot Monday night into Tuesday
due to surface temps falling overnight. Still a lot of uncertainty
with this timeframe as thermal profiles will change. Will continue
the mentioning of snow, sleet, ice and/or rain for the forecast
until thermals come better in alignment.

Lastly, weak ridging in between waves may allow for temps to
moderate back to seasonable during the day light hours Monday
and Tuesday.

Aviation /15z Thursday through Monday/
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term /through Friday night/...

today and tonight... High confidenceVFR. NW winds with gusts up
to 25 kt, becoming light and variable for a time tonight. Winds
become light south to southwest late tonight.

Friday... Moderate confidence. MainlyVFR. Patchy MVFR
cigs/vsbys in -sn, changing over to -ra by around midday. May
see some sleet or freezing rain early Fri across western
terminals. SW winds gusting up to 25-30 kt, highest along the
coast and higher terrain.

Kbos taf... High confidence in taf.

Kbdl taf... High confidence in taf.

Outlook /Saturday through Monday/...

Saturday into Sunday... Moderate confidence. A period or two of
showers along with some MVFR CIGS are possible at times as cold
front sags southward over the region. Could see a period of mixed
precip overnight.

Sunday into Monday... Low confidence. Showery weather to start with
possible MVFR cigs. Precip chances increase overnight into Monday
which could result in mixed precip.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term /through Friday night/...

today... High confidence.

Still gusty NW winds in the morning with gusts 25-30 kt
diminishing this afternoon. Conditions for freezing spray have
diminished and so we have dropped the freezing spray advisory.

Some lingering light freezing spray will continue to be possible
during through at least midday but will subside this afternoon.

Rough seas over outer waters gradually subside, too.

Tonight... High confidence. Diminishing NW winds becoming light
sw overnight. Seas subsiding below 5 ft over outer waters.

Friday... Moderate confidence. Southwest winds increase,
especially during the afternoon. Wind gusts up to 30 kt
possible. Small craft advisories likely. Low chance for gale
force gusts on the eastern outer waters during the afternoon and
evening prior to frontal passage. Visibility restrictions
possible in patchy light rain.

Outlook /Saturday through Monday/...

Friday night into Saturday... High confidence. Increased pressure
gradient with approaching systems may result in gales across the
eastern waters. Cold frontal passage on Saturday may bring some
showery weather for the waters.

Sunday... Moderate confidence. Cold front will be south of the waters
as surface high pressure moves northeast of the region. Conditions
should remain below SCA but if the front gets closer than seas and
winds may be a bit stronger.

Monday... Low confidence. Approaching upper level system and passing
warm front will increase precip as well as wind and seas of the
waters. SCA may be needed.

Box watches/warnings/advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 2 pm edt this afternoon for anz231-
251-256.

Small craft advisory until midnight edt tonight for anz250-254.

Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for anz255.

Synopsis...

near term...

short term...

long term...

aviation...

marine...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 16 mi43 min NNW 18 G 24 29°F 1033.1 hPa
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 16 mi43 min 28°F 38°F1033.2 hPa
FRXM3 17 mi43 min 28°F 2°F
PVDR1 24 mi43 min NW 8 G 12 31°F 1032.4 hPa-2°F
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 24 mi43 min NW 12 G 17 27°F 38°F1032.8 hPa
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 25 mi43 min N 8 G 12 30°F 37°F1032 hPa
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 26 mi43 min NNW 7 G 14 30°F 1033.7 hPa
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 26 mi43 min 29°F 36°F1032.2 hPa
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 26 mi88 min N 8.9 29°F 1033 hPa-3°F
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 28 mi88 min 26°F -4°F
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 31 mi43 min NW 12 G 16 28°F 38°F1033.3 hPa
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 31 mi73 min NW 17 G 21 25°F 1033.8 hPa (+0.8)
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 31 mi43 min NW 8 G 14 28°F 37°F1033 hPa
44090 32 mi189 min 36°F6 ft
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 36 mi43 min 29°F 37°F1031.8 hPa
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 38 mi83 min WNW 19 G 23 24°F 40°F4 ft1031.4 hPa (+1.0)
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 48 mi83 min 38°F3 ft1031.7 hPa (+1.7)

Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA
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Last
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NW19
G26
NW25
G31
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G34
NW21
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NW23
G32
NW22
G31
N19
G24
NW12
G17
NW15
G20
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G31
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G35
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G25
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SW9
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NW16
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NW15
G21
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W27
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N22
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N20
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NE13
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N7
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SW3
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G6
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G7
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N4
--
SW3
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SW6

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Taunton, Taunton Municipal Airport, MA6 mi21 minNNW 9 G 1510.00 miFair31°F-2°F23%1032 hPa
New Bedford, New Bedford Regional Airport, MA11 mi20 minNNW 7 G 1810.00 miFair32°F-2°F22%1032 hPa
Plymouth, Plymouth Municipal Airport, MA12 mi21 minWNW 12 G 2010.00 miFair30°F-4°F22%1031.8 hPa
Marshfield Airport, MA22 mi18 minNW 8 G 1610.00 miFair30°F-4°F22%1031.5 hPa

Wind History from TAN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW14
G26
NW19
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G34
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G35
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NW8NW6
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NW6NW5W4NW6NW12
G18
NW10N11NW9
G15
1 day ago3SW7SW9SW6
G17
S10S4S5S33W3W5NW4NW4SW3CalmCalmNW5W66W9W11
G21
NW12
G25
NW17
G27
NW11
G28
2 days agoN17
G27
N11
G24
N9
G19
N10N7N6NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3NW3S35

Tide / Current Tables for Taunton, Taunton River, Massachusetts
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Taunton
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:02 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:58 AM EDT     2.48 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:42 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 12:47 PM EDT     0.37 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:18 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:26 PM EDT     2.40 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:00 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.40.60.81.21.72.22.52.321.510.60.40.40.50.81.31.92.32.42.11.61.10.6

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Cod Canal, Massachusetts Current
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Cape Cod Canal
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:16 AM EDT     0.16 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:14 AM EDT     3.34 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 04:00 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:39 AM EDT     -0.17 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:40 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:32 AM EDT     -3.91 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 12:44 PM EDT     0.17 knots Slack
Thu -- 02:17 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:54 PM EDT     3.69 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 06:58 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 07:25 PM EDT     -0.18 knots Slack
Thu -- 10:05 PM EDT     -3.81 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-1.32.133.33.22.92-1.6-3.1-3.8-3.8-3.3-2.21.42.93.53.73.531.8-2.1-3.4-3.8-3.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.