Wednesday, September26, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
North Lakeville, MA

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9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 6:35AMSunset 6:35PM Wednesday September 26, 2018 12:24 AM EDT (04:24 UTC) Moonrise 7:46PMMoonset 7:53AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ234 Buzzards Bay- 950 Pm Edt Tue Sep 25 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through Wednesday afternoon...
Overnight..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Patchy fog. Showers likely. Isolated tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Patchy fog. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Patchy fog. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Thu..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt in the morning. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..E winds around 5 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri night..S winds around 5 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Sat night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sun..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sun night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 950 Pm Edt Tue Sep 25 2018
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. A warm front will lift N across the waters tonight, resulting in rain, limited visibility, and strong se winds. A cold front will follow, sweeping across the waters Wed night. High pres builds over new eng Thu and through this weekend. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Lakeville, MA
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location: 41.84, -70.93     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 260220
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
1020 pm edt Tue sep 25 2018

Synopsis
An warm front brings soaking rain to the region into this
evening, with poor drainage street flooding issues possible.

The steady rain winds down later this evening, but scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible through the
night. Summer-like warmth and humidity prevail during Wednesday
with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms in the afternoon
and early night. High pressure brings seasonably cool and less
humid weather for Thursday through Saturday. A cold front moves
through Saturday night Sunday morning with a chance of showers,
then dry and seasonable weather returns.

Near term until 6 am Wednesday morning
1015 pm update...

high rainfall rates moved into our southern counties in the
last few hours. Radar estimates and observations have shown up
to 5-6 inches under the heaviest showers. Flood warnings and
flash flood warnings have been issued following the eastward
movement of this line of heavy rain. The heaviest rain should
move out of ct in the next few hours and off of the ma coast by
06z. Have adjusted the forecast to bring rain to an end more
quickly behind this line as there is a tight gradient in the
trailing edge of precip.

730 pm update...

minor changes to the forecast this evening to keep up with
observed trends. Overall theme of the foreast remains on track.

Widespread rainfall becoming less so overnight. Low risk for a
thunderstorm late tonight.

Previous discussion...

highlights...

* areas of moderate to heavy rain into this evening with poor
drainage street flooding issues possible
* low risk for a t-storm later tonight near the south coast
highlights...

as of 4 pm this afternoon, still had a several hours to go with
the widespread overrunning precipitation. With high
precipitable water values (1.5 to 2 inches), periods of moderate
to heavy rainfall will continue into this evening. Hi-res
guidance showed the back edge of the widespread area of rain
coming to an end from SW to NE over the course of the evening,
coinciding with the strongest southerly LLJ winds and warm front
pushing north of our area.

Precipitation then becomes more on and off showery and more
scattered in nature for the overnight, as models show warm front
lifts north. So after overrunning swath moves thru, have gone
with a chance pop for the remainder of the night. Models
are showing some increase in instability tonight, thinking better
chances for thunder would be across the southern portion of our
area, generally south of the ma pike and into northern ct and ri.

A couple of the hi-res guidance members including the nam
nest continue to show potential for some convection around daybreak
wed over far SE new england. Will still be something to watch, but
this does further warrant the mention of chance pops and possible
thunder. Since precipitable water will still be quite high, locally
heavy rainfall possible.

With low level surface winds out of the south tonight, expecting
higher dewpoint air to move in, and also expecting a non-diurnal
temp rise as the night wears on. This moisture-abundant environment
is expected to lead to areas of fog. Could see some locales in
southeast ma ri in the low 70s at daybreak wed.

Short term 6 am Wednesday morning through 6 pm Wednesday
Summerlike warmth and humidity prevail during Wednesday as S to sw
flow prevails and cold front gradually approaches from the
west. Impressive warm sector for this time of year overspreads
the region with +18 to +20 c air at 925 mb streaming across the
region. These temp anomalies are about +2 standard deviations
warmer than climo and will support highs Wed of 75-80.

The warmth will allow for surface-based CAPE of 500-1000j kg, but
overall lapse rates are not strong. Thus a tall skinny cape
scenario. However, 0-6 km shear increases to 35-40 kt, possibly a
bit higher towards 00z over ma. Thus low risk for a few strong
storms impacting western central ma ct towards evening, with
strong to damaging winds the main concern. Other concern with any
convection during Wed will continue to include locally heavy
rainfall, since pwats will continue to be approaching or around 2
inches. This line of convection will likely weaken after 00z as blyr
cools and mid level lapse rates remain poor.

Long term Wednesday night through Tuesday
Highlights...

* mainly dry and seasonable Thursday through Tuesday
Wednesday night...

a cold front will cross our region, bringing an end to the
threat for showers and thunderstorms, especially after midnight.

Much more comfortable humidity start to arrive from the nw.

Above normal low temperatures.

Thursday and Friday...

weak high pressure dominates the weather of our region with dry
conditions and near normal temperatures. However, front from
Wednesday night is likely to stall south of our region. Only
potential impact here would be for mariners with increased wave
action.

Saturday...

trailing northern stream short wave and another cold front move
through. Weak WAA ahead of this feature will result in
slightly higher temperatures. Still a risk for a few
afternoon evening showers.

Sunday through Tuesday...

dry and cooler as a large high pressure takes over. Temperatures
are likely to be a few degrees below normal during this time.

Aviation 02z Wednesday through Sunday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Wednesday ...

tonight... Moderate confidence. Widespread ifr with pockets of
lifr MVFR in low clouds and areas of fog. The widespread rain
becomes more showery in nature but potential continues through
the night with a scattered thunderstorm possible after midnight.

Wednesday... Moderate confidence.

Conditions slowly improve to MVFR through the day. Scattered showers
continue, with a few thunderstorms possible esp. During the
afternoon and early evening. Localized heavy downpours and gusty
winds possible. Ifr conditions possible with any showers t-storms.

Kbos terminal... Moderate confidence in taf.

Kbdl terminal... Moderate confidence in taf.

Outlook Wednesday night through Sunday ... Moderate confidence.

Wednesday night: mainlyVFR, with local ifr possible. Breezy.

Chance shra, isolated tsra, patchy fg.

Thursday:VFR. Breezy.

Thursday night:VFR. Slight chance shra.

Friday through Friday night:VFR.

Saturday:VFR. Slight chance shra.

Saturday night through Sunday:VFR.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Wednesday ...

tonight... Moderate to high confidence. Strongest winds expected
during this evening as LLJ passes thru the area. Gale warning
continues thru 11 pm this evening for the northern coastal
waters, with SCA headlines elsewhere thru the overnight. Showers
diminish in coverage around midnight, becoming more scattered
in nature. Locally heavy downpours possible, and some
thunderstorms are possible later tonight. Areas of fog will
reduce vsbys for mariners.

Wednesday... Winds diminish somewhat during the morning, but are
expected to pick up again during the afternoon. Seas will
remain rough on the outer coastal waters. Thus the SCA headlines
continue thru Wed for most of the waters, with the exception of
narragansett bay.

Outlook Wednesday night through Sunday ... Moderate confidence.

Wednesday night: low risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Rough seas up to 8 ft. Chance of rain
showers, isolated thunderstorms, patchy fog. Local visibility
1 to 3 nm.

Thursday: low risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Thursday night: winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight
chance of rain showers.

Friday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Friday night: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft.

Saturday through Saturday night: winds less than 25 kt. Areas
of seas approaching 5 ft.

Sunday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt Wednesday for anz230>235-
237-250-254>256.

Small craft advisory until 11 pm edt this evening for anz236.

Small craft advisory until 4 am edt Wednesday for anz251.

Synopsis... Belk nmb
near term... Belk bw
short term... Nmb
long term... Belk
aviation... Belk nmb
marine... Belk nmb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 16 mi43 min 72°F 68°F1021.3 hPa
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 16 mi37 min S 16 G 21 73°F 1020.6 hPa
FRXM3 17 mi37 min 73°F 71°F
PVDR1 24 mi37 min SW 8.9 G 14 71°F 1021 hPa71°F
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 24 mi37 min S 20 G 30 69°F 68°F1020.5 hPa
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 25 mi43 min W 1.9 G 8 70°F 66°F1020.8 hPa
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 26 mi43 min SW 8 G 15 71°F 1020.6 hPa
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 26 mi100 min S 8 71°F 1022 hPa70°F
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 26 mi37 min 71°F 68°F1021.3 hPa
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 28 mi100 min 2.9 67°F 1023 hPa67°F
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 31 mi85 min SSE 23 G 24 68°F 1021.8 hPa (-1.9)
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 31 mi43 min S 17 G 24 70°F 64°F1020.8 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 31 mi43 min SSW 22 G 23 70°F 67°F1020.7 hPa
44090 32 mi55 min 65°F3 ft
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 36 mi37 min 70°F 1020.8 hPa
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 38 mi35 min SE 16 G 19 66°F 64°F7 ft1019.6 hPa (-2.9)66°F
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 42 mi35 min SSE 19 G 23 69°F 69°F3 ft1021.8 hPa67°F
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 49 mi35 min SSE 18 G 19 63°F 6 ft1021.2 hPa (-2.3)63°F

Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Taunton, Taunton Municipal Airport, MA6 mi33 minSSE 85.00 miRain Fog/Mist72°F70°F94%1020.3 hPa
New Bedford, New Bedford Regional Airport, MA11 mi32 minS 1210.00 miOvercast71°F71°F100%1020.7 hPa
Plymouth, Plymouth Municipal Airport, MA12 mi33 minS 9 G 1910.00 miOvercast71°F69°F94%1021.1 hPa
Marshfield Airport, MA22 mi50 minS 8 G 1410.00 miOvercast72°F71°F100%1021 hPa

Wind History from TAN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm4E6E8E6E7SE9SE9SE4SE15
G23
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm5--NE10
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NE8NE7NE9
G14
NE7--44CalmNE3N3CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm334CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Taunton, Taunton River, Massachusetts
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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Tide / Current Tables for Cape Cod Canal, Massachusetts Current
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.