Friday, May24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
North Riverside, IL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:21AMSunset 8:14PM Friday May 24, 2019 12:20 PM CDT (17:20 UTC) Moonrise 12:38AMMoonset 10:24AM Illumination 69% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ741 Expires:201905242100;;386383 Fzus53 Klot 241500 Nshlot Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Chicago/romeoville Il 1000 Am Cdt Fri May 24 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan Waves Are Provided As A Range Of Significant Wave Heights, Which Is The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves, Along With The Average Height Of The Highest 10 Percent Of The Waves Which Will Occasionally Be Encountered. Lmz740>742-242100- Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor- 1000 Am Cdt Fri May 24 2019
Rest of today..East winds 10 to 15 kt. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 kt becoming southwest after midnight. Showers and Thunderstorms likely. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Saturday..Southwest winds around 15 kt. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the morning, then slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 kt becoming northwest after midnight. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 ft or less.
LMZ741


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Riverside, IL
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location: 41.84, -87.82     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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Fxus63 klot 241430
afdlot
area forecast discussion
national weather service chicago romeoville, il
930 am cdt Fri may 24 2019

Update
917 am cdt
early morning showers and thunderstorms have since exited to the
east of the area at this time. However, monitoring another area of
showers and storms moving east northeast across eastern iowa.

Large driving mechanism for this area of precip is a stout
vorticity maxima, with some support from the LLJ waa focused
across the region. With this vort MAX expected to lift north
northeast while the LLJ waa is focused to the north, do think this
area of precip will hold together as it moves into northern il
over the next couple of hours. Greatest coverage of these
showers storms expected to be along and north of i-80 this morning
through midday, though some isolated development further to the
south can't be ruled out. Surface boundary and greater instability
still well south of the CWA at this time, and this looks to
remain this way through midday, as this area of precip moves
through. Lacking steeper low mid level lapse rates as well, will
all limit intensity of any storms, and think any storms through
midday will remain sub severe. Though can't rule out some small
hail and some gusty winds.

This precip will exit by midday, with a period of drier weather
expected over the area through at least mid afternoon. Still some
lower confidence with how the rest of the day and night will
unfold, given the morning convection. Will continue to monitor
trends today, and provide updates around midday.

Rodriguez

Short term
345 am cdt
through Saturday...

challenging forecast in the short term with convective processes
likely to dictate the eventual evolution of things.

Early this morning, a large, loosely organized MCS and associated
mcv are moving northeastward across iowa. Strengthening warm air
advection out ahead of this MCV is beginning to result in isolated
to widely scattered storms developing over northern il to the
north of the warm front that's draped across central il. This warm
front and associated pool of warm, moist, unstable air is progged
to begin lifting north early this morning. The northward advance
of this boundary may ultimately be retarded for a time by
convective cold pool and associated outflow boundary re-enforcing
the boundary later this morning. As the MCV over ia tracks
northeastward, it should become increasingly separated from the
better pool of instability and moisture, so while the MCV tracks
into wi the greater concentration of convection this morning will
probably be over northern il, especially early this morning when
aided by the enhanced WAA associated with the low level jet (llj).

All indications are that there should be a lull in the activity
over our CWA later this morning through the mid-afternoon in the
wake of the first MCV and following the weakening and veering of
the llj. There are some sizable differences among the various
models with respect to the placement of the boundary this
afternoon, likely due in large part to models struggling and
attempting to resolve the impacts of potential convective cold
pool. Guidance is advertising some modest pressure falls to our
north this afternoon while we see low mid level height rises, so
warm front may mix northward some this afternoon. High bust
potential with temps this afternoon, with easterly flow north of
the boundary likely to result in some lake enhanced cooling over
northeast il through much of the afternoon.

By late this afternoon, if atmosphere is able to recover and
destabilize, there is a threat of storms developing near the warm
front. Generally speaking, most models suggest that our area
should see some capping inversion aloft, which conceptually would
make sense given the rising heights today. If the cap is weaker
than progged and the boundary layer were to recover sufficiently
from this morning, then given the kinematic fields there would
certainly be a threat for isolated severe thunderstorms.

While forcing looks to be somewhat nebulous, guidance is in pretty
good agreement in lighting up convection late this afternoon from
the southern plains north into eastern ia and northwest il. This
convection is likely to spread eastward this evening into the
remainder of northern il with strengthening low level jet likely
to provide a continuous feed of unseasonably moist and unstable
air into the region. While there is some lingering uncertainty
still regarding the coverage of storms and placement of storms
tonight, there is enough of a model consensus pointing to the
northern half or so of our CWA to go ahead with a flash flood
watch given the ingredients progged to be in place. The
ingredients include precipitable water values over 200% of normal
and in the 99th percentile for may, 40kt+ low level jet, high
freezing levels very efficient warm rain processes, and corfidi
vectors dropping to near zero raising concerns for potential back-
building convection and some threat for training storms. Soils
remain very moist and unable to hold much more water and rivers,
creeks, and streams are also running above normal. Potential
exists for storms to easily produce 1-2" per hour rainfall amounts
and if any back- building training were to occur the potential is
there for totals easily over 3" which given the already fairly
low flash flood guidance would pose a flash flood threat.

In addition, to the flash flood threat, strong shear profiles and
progged ample instability also raise the risk for severe
thunderstorms. Damaging winds and large hail appear to be the
primary threat, which could persist into even the early parts of
the overnight hours. There is also a more conditional tornado
threat as well, particularly near the warm front where more backed
low level flow will result in larger low level hodographs. The
magnitude of the severe threat this evening is a bit uncertain due
to the lingering questions regarding forcing, if it becomes
apparent that forcing will be sufficient for organized convection
then a more substantial severe threat would likely exist given the
likely strong shear profiles and ample instability.

Convective activity will likely linger into Saturday morning with
a tendency for storms to settle southward into the better
instability as air mass over northern il gets worked over by
potential repeated rounds of storms and low level jet supporting
that renewed development weakens and veers a bit. Convection
should wane in the afternoon, especially northern cwa.

- izzi

Long term
317 am cdt
Saturday night through Thursday...

the main forecast concerns through the period will continue to
focus on the chances and timing of showers and thunderstorms
through mid week as we remain in a very active weather pattern.

A cold frontal boundary is expected to sag southward over the area
at the beginning of the period Saturday night, before stalling
out somewhere across central and southern il on Sunday. This front
is likely to be the focus for additional shower and thunderstorm
chances Saturday night into Sunday, so its exact placement will be
key in identify storm chances. At this time it appears the best
chances of storms will mainly south of i-80 Saturday night, with
the focus then gradually sagging southward over central portions
of il and in during the day Sunday. Some strong to severe storms,
with heavy rainfall will continue to be possible with this
activity, again with the best potential looking to be south of
i-80 during this period.

It does appear the area will have another short break of dry
weather later Sunday into early Monday as high pressure builds
over the western great lakes region. Again this will be a short
period, as yet another storm system is forecast to spawn over the
central rockies Sunday night as an upper level impulse ejects out
of a southwestern CONUS upper low. This area of low pressure
should then track northeastward to the western great lakes by
Tuesday evening. This would likely result in the cold front to our
south shifting back northward over the area as a warm front
Monday, with showers and thunderstorms probable over at least
northern sections of the area late Monday into Monday evening.

Yet another period of showers and thunderstorms, with possibly a
much better severe and heavy rain threat is then looking to be on
Tuesday and Tuesday night. This is the period when the main
southwestern CONUS upper system is forecast to shift northeastward
towards the western great lakes. The thermodyamics and kinematics
will certainly be favorable for severe thunderstorms with this
activity into Tuesday night, and very heavy rainfall will again be
of concern.

Following this period of active weather into early Wednesday, it
does appear that we could get another break in the active weather
for a couple of days.

Kjb

Aviation
For the 12z tafs...

the main forecast concerns continue to focus on the timing of
thunderstorms today and tonight.

Showers and embedded thunderstorms are currently moving across
terminals. It appears that this activity will shift out of the
area in the 13-14z timeframe. However, another healthy complex of
storms is currently ongoing farther west across ia and northern
mo. Forecast guidance suggests that this activity will weaken as
it shift eastward this morning, but this may not happen as quickly
as guidance suggests. Given the continued uptick in warm air
advection isentropic ascent and moisture transport off the
surface, it appears that sufficient elevated instability may
allow this complex of storms to make a run at terminals around
midday today. This is a change from the previous forecast, and
this convective activity could impact the timing and placement of
our next batch of thunderstorms tonight.

There continues to be concerns for more thunderstorms over the
area very late this afternoon and into tonight. However,
observation trends will need to be monitored following the
morning thunderstorm activity. For now, no major changes have been
made to the timing for storms tonight.

Kjb

Lot watches warnings advisories
Il... Flash flood watch... Ilz003-ilz004-ilz005-ilz006-ilz008-ilz010-
ilz011-ilz012-ilz013-ilz014-ilz019-ilz020-ilz021-ilz022... 7
pm Friday to 10 am Saturday.

In... Flash flood watch... Inz001... 7 pm Friday to 10 am Saturday.

Lm... None.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CNII2 11 mi21 min Calm G 5.1 59°F 54°F
FSTI2 13 mi141 min SSE 11 54°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 14 mi31 min S 7 G 7
JAKI2 14 mi141 min SE 1 G 1.9 59°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 17 mi33 min ESE 5.1 G 9.9 66°F 1018.7 hPa55°F
45174 22 mi21 min NE 3.9 G 3.9 1 ft1025 hPa (+0.2)
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 36 mi41 min ENE 9.9 G 12 51°F
45186 37 mi61 min NNE 1.9 G 3.9 51°F 51°F1 ft
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 38 mi41 min SSE 4.1 G 8.9 66°F 1019.6 hPa
45187 45 mi41 min ENE 1.9 G 3.9 49°F 47°F1 ft
45170 46 mi21 min S 7.8 G 12 60°F 53°F1 ft54°F
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 49 mi31 min SE 16 G 19 66°F 54°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago, Chicago Midway Airport, IL5 mi28 minSSE 5 G 1510.00 miOvercast66°F54°F65%1018.5 hPa
Chicago, Chicago-O'Hare International Airport, IL11 mi30 minS 410.00 miOvercast63°F53°F70%1019 hPa
Chicago / Wheeling, Pal-Waukee Airport, IL19 mi29 minN 010.00 miOvercast62°F51°F67%1020.1 hPa
Lewis University Airport, IL22 mi46 minSE 710.00 miOvercast64°F55°F75%1019 hPa
Chicago / West Chicago, Dupage Airport, IL24 mi29 minSE 410.00 miMostly Cloudy64°F54°F70%1019.1 hPa

Wind History from MDW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW17
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W11
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G21
W10NW10W5W4W5CalmNE5NE8E8E8E9N13N9NE8E12SE13
G24
SE7SE5
G15
1 day agoS17
G25
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2 days agoE10E15
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G24
SE15
G28
W11CalmSE11E17
G24
SE6SE10S7S6S10S15
G21
S17
G25
S16
G25

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Chicago, IL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.