Sunday, August19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
North Riverside, IL

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Sunrise 6:03AMSunset 7:46PM Sunday August 19, 2018 9:07 AM CDT (14:07 UTC) Moonrise 3:01PMMoonset 12:19AM Illumination 56% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ741 Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor- 255 Am Cdt Sun Aug 19 2018
Today..Northeast winds 5 to 10 kt becoming east 10 to 15 kt in the late morning and afternoon. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Tonight..East winds 10 to 15 kt becoming southeast after midnight. Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 ft building to 2 to 4 ft after midnight.
Monday..Southeast winds 10 to 20 kt. Showers and Thunderstorms likely, mainly in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Monday night..Southeast winds 10 to 20 kt becoming southwest 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Showers and Thunderstorms likely, mainly in the evening. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
LMZ741 Expires:201808191515;;884169 FZUS53 KLOT 190755 NSHLOT NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 255 AM CDT Sun Aug 19 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the average height of the highest 10 percent of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. LMZ740>742-191515-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Riverside, IL
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location: 41.84, -87.82     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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Fxus63 klot 191127
afdlot
area forecast discussion
national weather service chicago romeoville, il
627 am cdt Sun aug 19 2018

Update
627 am cdt
goes-e nighttime microphysics rgb imagery shows fog developing and
expanding north, mainly between i-39 and the fox river. Sfc obs
support satellite imagery with many sites dropping to or even
below 1 4sm, so have opted to expand the advisory to include these
areas.

- izzi
424 am cdt
have opted to issue a dense fog advisory for locations south of
i-80. Satellite trends and surface obs indicate the fog has
expected and become more dense over the south half of the cwa
during the past hour or two. Calls around the area confirm this as
well. As noted in the short term discussion, this fog should
dissipate by mid morning given the lack of clouds aloft.

Kluber

Short term
302 am cdt
through tonight...

generally quiet weather is expected through tonight ahead of an
approaching strong low pressure system on Monday. Fog has slowly
developed across primarily the south half of the CWA early this
morning per satellite imagery and area observations. For the most
part, locations with visibility less than one mile have been far
more isolated than Saturday morning. With no cloud cover aloft,
expect any fog to dissipate quickly after sunrise.

A surface ridge extending SW across the CWA will keep light NE to se
winds across the area today, with some enhanced wind behind an
expected lake breeze this afternoon. Some hi-res guidance continues
to indicate a few widely isolated showers forming on the lake breeze
this afternoon across NW indiana and the chicago metro. Some capping
around 700mb should limit the vertical motion of any deeper cumulus
to the point that dry air entrainment prevents further cloud growth.

With that said, would not be surprised to see some of the deeper
cumulus generate sprinkles.

Mid to upper-level clouds will gradually increase tonight ahead of
the approaching system. Precip should remain SW of the CWA prior to
daybreak Monday. The thickening clouds and stronger SE winds should
prevent fog development tonight.

Kluber

Long term
302 am cdt
Monday through Saturday...

an unseasonably strong low pressure will move across the region
Monday into Tuesday, with several rounds of showers and
thunderstorms along with a highly conditional severe thunderstorm
threat.

Monday and Tuesday: guidance continues to develop an anomalously
strong surface low for mid late august across the great lakes region
as a slow-moving upper low over the central great plains phases with
longwave troughing across south-central canada. The surface low is
expected to track from between kansas city and omaha late tonight to
far NW illinois Monday evening, to northern lake huron Tuesday
morning. A swath of precipitable water values around two inches will
supply ample moisture to this system.

With the time frame now falling into the window of several hi-res
models, it is becoming apparent that there may be two main waves of
precip Monday and Monday night. The first will quickly shift ne
across the CWA Monday morning into the afternoon on an embedded
trough axis rotating around the upper-low. This will likely result
in a broken line of moderate to sometime heavy showers over a 2-4hr
window. The second round will be associated with developing
convection as the stacked low nears from the west late Monday
afternoon into the evening. A severe weather threat highly
conditional on the ability to generate sufficient instability
between these rounds of precip exists with this activity. Poor mid-
level lapse rates will limit the upper bound of MLCAPE to around
1200 j kg, but this should be sufficient for strong to severe storms
given the impressive dynamics and shear profiles normally expected
in early fall versus late summer. While there is a damaging wind
threat, low lcls and notable backing of the low-level wind profile
supports a conditional tornado threat. Again, this remains very
conditional on at least some clearing Monday afternoon between the
two rounds of precip. Lastly, while there is some flooding risk, the
progressive nature of the waves of precip should limit the areal
extent of any excessive rains.

After the evening convection, the area will likely fall under a dry
slot for a period of time before the upper low passes overhead late
Monday night into Tuesday morning, at which time more showers will
be possible. Strong cyclonic flow behind the system will result in
gusty NW winds and isolated to scattered showers Tuesday.

Wednesday through Saturday: high pressure will slowly move across
the region Wednesday and Thursday, bringing dry conditions and
seasonable temperatures. A potent shortwave trough will then cross
the region Friday afternoon into Saturday. While there will be a
chance of showers and some storms, better forcing will remain north
of the cwa.

Kluber

Aviation
For the 12z tafs...

ground fog this morning has largely developed away from the taf
sites and what vsby restrictions there are should quickly improve
in the next hour or so. Otherwise, no significant weather
expected with E to NE winds picking up near and immediately down
wind of the lake later this morning through the afternoon. Some
showers and t-storms could begin to affect mdw and ord toward the
end of the 30 hours taf.

- izzi

Marine
214 am cdt
primary marine concern will be the unseasonably strong storm
system progged to move across the region early in the week.

First, should see increasing east to southeast winds Monday as the
low deepens and approaches the region. The low is progged to track
across southern lake michigan late Monday night early Tuesday
morning with northerlies increasing later Monday night over
northern portions of the lake with the stronger winds spreading
south across the remainder of the lake during the day Tuesday.

Given increasing model consensus and likelihood of significant
instability with the somewhat cooler air on the back side of the
system moving over the very warm lake, have introduced a period of
gales into the forecast for Tuesday into Tuesday evening. Very
strong lake induced instability should set the stage for lake
effect showers and thunderstorms Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning, so while synoptic winds will ease Tuesday night, there
will likely be some localized winds in squalls in association
with the stronger lake effect showers and storms. In addition,
lake induced instability looks sufficient for a waterspout risk,
especially later Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

- izzi

Lot watches warnings advisories
Il... Dense fog advisory... Ilz003-ilz004-ilz005-ilz008-ilz010-ilz011-
ilz012-ilz019-ilz020-ilz021-ilz022-ilz023-ilz032-ilz033-
ilz039 until 9 am Sunday.

In... Dense fog advisory... Inz001-inz002-inz010-inz011-inz019 until 9
am Sunday.

Lm... None.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CNII2 11 mi22 min ENE 4.1 G 7 76°F 66°F
45177 12 mi127 min 76°F1 ft
FSTI2 13 mi127 min NNE 4.1 75°F
JAKI2 14 mi127 min ENE 2.9 G 6 76°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 14 mi37 min NE 8 G 9.9 75°F 67°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 17 mi37 min N 4.1 G 6 76°F 1015.2 hPa69°F
45174 22 mi27 min NE 5.8 G 7.8 74°F 76°F2 ft71°F
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 36 mi27 min NNE 6 G 7 73°F
45186 37 mi27 min NNE 5.8 74°F 76°F1 ft
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 38 mi37 min 75°F 1016.3 hPa
45187 45 mi27 min 73°F 76°F1 ft
45170 46 mi27 min SE 1.9 G 3.9 73°F 77°F2 ft69°F
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 49 mi47 min SE 2.9 G 4.1 72°F 67°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago, Chicago Midway Airport, IL5 mi74 minNE 310.00 miA Few Clouds75°F69°F82%1014.4 hPa
Chicago, Chicago-O'Hare International Airport, IL11 mi76 minNNE 46.00 miA Few Clouds with Haze73°F66°F81%1014.7 hPa
Chicago / Wheeling, Pal-Waukee Airport, IL19 mi75 minN 39.00 miFair72°F66°F82%1015.5 hPa
Lewis University Airport, IL22 mi72 minENE 37.00 miFair69°F69°F100%1015.9 hPa
Chicago / West Chicago, Dupage Airport, IL24 mi75 minN 03.00 miFog/Mist70°F68°F93%1014.8 hPa

Wind History from MDW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE10N10NE11NE9NE8NE12N7NE10NE10N9NE7NE6N5NE6NE5N3NE4CalmCalmNW3NW4N3NE3E6
1 day agoCalm5SW6NW3NE4NE4NE12E12E8E7E9E5N6N3NE4N4NE3NW3NW6N5N4N7N7N6
2 days ago3N3E54NE3N75E8E8E6E7E5E6E5E5W13
G22
NE6NE4CalmSW3S5SW6CalmW4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Chicago, IL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.