Tuesday, August21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Chicago, IL

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Sunrise 6:04AMSunset 7:42PM Tuesday August 21, 2018 5:01 PM CDT (22:01 UTC) Moonrise 4:47PMMoonset 1:39AM Illumination 79% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ742 Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor- 301 Pm Cdt Tue Aug 21 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through Wednesday morning...
Tonight..North winds 15 to 25 kt. Chance of waterspouts in the evening. Scattered showers and a chance of Thunderstorms in the evening. Waves 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt. Sunny. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft subsiding to 3 to 5 ft in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..West winds 10 to 15 kt. Mostly clear. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 ft or less after midnight.
Thursday..West winds 5 to 10 kt becoming southwest in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves 1 ft or less.
LMZ742 Expires:201808220330;;421446 FZUS53 KLOT 212001 NSHLOT NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 301 PM CDT Tue Aug 21 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the average height of the highest 10 percent of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. LMZ740>742-220330-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chicago, IL
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location: 41.85, -87.6     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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Fxus63 klot 211937
afdlot
area forecast discussion
national weather service chicago romeoville, il
237 pm cdt Tue aug 21 2018

Short term
212 pm cdt
through Wednesday...

isolated showers will remain possible across the area this
afternoon. However, a bit better shot at showers and even some
lake induced thunderstorms will be possible this evening,
especially over northeastern il through portions of northwestern
indiana. Another upper-level disturbance is forecast to shift over
the area this evening, and the associated speed MAX will place
the area in the left exit region of a 110+ kt upper-level jet.

With this good synoptic signal and many convective allowing
models developing showers and storms over southern lake michigan
and adjacent areas of northeastern il and northwestern in this
evening, I have continued with the going forecast for a period of
higher pops this evening. Instability looks to be augmented by
the lake, with lake induced CAPE values expected to top 1,500
j kg. Waterspouts will be possible over the lake, but otherwise,
heavy downpours will be the primary threat from this activity this
evening. Expect the showers and storms to wane across the area
overnight.

Wednesday should be a dry and seasonably cool day, with highs
expected to reach the upper 70s under mostly sunny skies.

Kjb

Long term
228 pm cdt
Wednesday night through Tuesday...

after a day of low humidity and plentiful sunshine Thursday,
another upper trough will eject from the great basin toward the
great lakes late in the week and result in a few periods of
unsettled weather. A warm front ahead of this trough will lead to
a period of showers and embedded thunderstorms late Thursday
night into Friday morning. Warm sector moisture will build ahead
of the main trough axis later Friday and Friday night such that
another round of thunderstorms appear on tap. Heavy rainfall
appears to be the main hazard with these, though there is some
stronger storm potential, more so for areas west, given the
increased moisture and strong wind fields, and decent veering in
the low to mid level wind fields also.

Once the trough clears the area later Saturday, the upper air
pattern will feature a building ridge across the southern southeastern
united states with a trough across the northwest. This pattern
will result in broad and deep warm and moist southwesterly flow
across the eastern usa, including the midwest.

The lower great lakes region will remain precariously close to the
ring of fire that often develops on the northern periphery of the
ridge axis, which at this juncture appears to be the case for
areas slightly to our north in this pattern, but we could be in
the crosshairs at times also. This pattern appears like it could
remain in place for much of next week. What can be said with
decent confidence is that we will likely be in for an extended
period of above to well above normal temperatures and seasonally
high humidity values. But there may be times when the effective
warm front gets shoved south over our region, and we get mired in
the active pattern that often features periods of heavy rainfall
and gusty thunderstorms. Some guidance hints at the start of the
ridge development and then again mid week. Did continue the idea
of temperatures above guidance, but if the ridge does hold we may
still be a tad conservative.

Kmd

Aviation
For the 18z tafs...

cigs continue to gradually improve early this afternoon. Expect
some higher end MVFR to lower endVFR CIGS to continue for the
next few hours, with some additional improvement likely by mid to
late this afternoon. Showers will continue to be possible at times
this afternoon over the terminals. However, the main focus has
been along the surface frontal boundary which is now sagging
towards the i-80 corridor. Another upper disturbance will move
across northeastern il into early this evening and this could
result in some more scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm
over the eastern terminal sites. Otherwise, expect winds to be
gusty out of the north-northeast this afternoon.

Kjb

Marine
228 pm cdt
seasonally strong winds to 30 kt on the back side of
low pressure across the eastern great lakes will gradually ease
over the next 36 hours, but until then waves will remain elevated
across lake michigan with the highest waves across the south due
to full fetch northerly winds. A secondary cold front tonight will
keep winds elevated until early Wednesday before high pressure
begins to nose in from the west.

The high center will pass south of the lake tonight before it
continues to the atlantic seaboard Friday. Another low will eject
from the northern rockies and approach northern lake michigan
early this weekend resulting in a shift to gusty southerly winds,
again to around 30 kt or so.

Kmd

Lot watches warnings advisories
Il... Beach hazards statement... Ilz006-ilz014 until 1 pm Wednesday.

In... Beach hazards statement... Inz001-inz002 until 7 pm Wednesday.

Lm... Small craft advisory... Il nearshore waters until 11 am
Wednesday.

Small craft advisory... In nearshore waters until 7 pm Wednesday.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CNII2 1 mi16 min N 13 G 19 75°F 65°F
45177 3 mi121 min 75°F1 ft
JAKI2 5 mi121 min N 11 G 21 74°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 5 mi31 min N 21 G 23 73°F 66°F
FSTI2 9 mi121 min NNW 24 72°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 9 mi31 min NNW 13 G 21 74°F 1012.4 hPa67°F
45174 20 mi21 min N 14 G 19 72°F 72°F7 ft68°F
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 28 mi81 min 74°F 1011.9 hPa
45170 34 mi21 min N 21 G 27 73°F 75°F7 ft68°F
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 37 mi81 min NNE 9.9 G 12 72°F
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 37 mi31 min NNW 26 G 28 74°F 67°F
45186 37 mi21 min N 18 71°F 73°F3 ft
45187 45 mi21 min 73°F 73°F3 ft

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Last
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E13
G18
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G15
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SE10
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G6
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SE1
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NE9
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G15
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G17
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N9
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G7
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G10
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G11
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NE10

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago, Chicago Midway Airport, IL9 mi68 minNNE 139.00 miPartly Cloudy79°F63°F58%1011.5 hPa
Chicago, Chicago-O'Hare International Airport, IL18 mi70 minN 14 G 2010.00 miMostly Cloudy76°F63°F64%1012.3 hPa
Gary Regional Airport, IN19 mi76 minN 15 G 3010.00 miMostly Cloudy77°F68°F74%1012.5 hPa
Lansing Municipal Airport, IL22 mi66 minN 12 G 23 miOvercast74°F63°F69%1012.5 hPa
Chicago / Wheeling, Pal-Waukee Airport, IL24 mi69 minNNW 12 G 1810.00 miOvercast76°F64°F67%1012.8 hPa

Wind History from MDW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE15
G19
E11E8SE5E4CalmSE6--S5S5S5S3CalmCalmNW6W5NW9N10N19
G27
N17
G23
N17
G26
N16
G23
N13N11
1 day agoE13E8E8E10E9SE6SE7SE7SE9SE7E8E9SE8SE8SE9E11E10E13E9E7E15
G20
E12
G20
E12E11
2 days agoNE10N9NE7NE6N5NE6NE5N3NE4CalmCalmNW3NW4N3NE3E6CalmE5E9NE7NE5E6E10E11

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Chicago, IL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.