Friday, November16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Chicago, IL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:40AMSunset 4:30PM Friday November 16, 2018 4:39 PM CST (22:39 UTC) Moonrise 2:32PMMoonset 12:31AM Illumination 64% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ742 Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor- 254 Pm Cst Fri Nov 16 2018
Tonight..West winds 10 to 20 kt early...diminishing to 5 to 10 kt overnight. Chance of snow through the night. Waves 1 to 3 ft subsiding to 1 ft or less in the late evening and overnight.
Saturday..North winds 15 to 20 kt. Snow in the morning, then chance of snow and rain in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 ft building to 3 to 5 ft in the afternoon.
Saturday night..North winds 15 to 20 kt. Slight chance of snow. Snow may be mixed with rain in the evening. Slight chance of snow through the night. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Sunday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 kt becoming west in the afternoon. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft in the afternoon.
LMZ742 Expires:201811170500;;407351 FZUS53 KLOT 162054 NSHLOT NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 254 PM CST Fri Nov 16 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the average height of the highest 10 percent of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. LMZ740>742-170500-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chicago, IL
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location: 41.85, -87.6     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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Fxus63 klot 162112
afdlot
area forecast discussion
national weather service chicago romeoville, il
312 pm cst Fri nov 16 2018

Short term
310 pm cst
through Sunday...

main concern is our next round of light snow accumulations tonight
into Saturday, with some minor additional snowfall possible
Saturday night for portions of east central illinois and northwest
indiana. Will not be issuing any winter headlines for tonight-
Saturday's minor event given expected amounts below typical
criteria, mostly light snow rates, and Saturday morning timing.

Regional radar early this afternoon mosaic indicates the
advertised fairly narrow swath of snow from portions of the
dakotas to southwest minnesota. This is being driven by an
elongated but potent mid-level short-wave diving southeast across
the aforementioned areas. In addition, a tight thermal
gradient baroclinic zone was noted over the central and northern
plains, with this contributing mesoscale frontogenetic enhancement
to the snow. The overall trend in observations and in the guidance
has been a slight southward shift in the snow swath, with
ingredients looking to maximize from northeast ia into southwest
wi. Initial narrow band or bands of warm advection light snow
driven by a modest west-southwest ~20 kt 850 mb low level jet may
try to push into portions of northern illinois mainly north of
i-88 as early as the late evening hours. With this initial push
encountering antecedent dry air aloft, it may end up being mostly
virga, so kept pops low through around midnight. The initial waa
wing will also start the top down saturation process, helping to
get steadier precip going overnight.

A roughly west-east and still fairly narrow axis of snow will set
up mostly north of i-88 after midnight as mid-level short-wave
draws closer and low-level convergence and f-gen increases.

Forecast soundings indicate a relatively small dendritic growth
(snow growth) zone, though with decent lift co-located within the
dgz for a time. Therefore anticipate steady light to temporary
moderate snow rates. While forcing ingredients will be fairly
impressive for a time just to our northwest, there is good
agreement in the model guidance that the mid-level short-wave
driving large scale forcing to dampen weaken into Saturday
morning. Thus, for this reason the snowfall intensity overall may
trend downward Saturday morning over northern il into far
northwest indiana.

The main question is how long into Saturday morning does the
support for transient stronger banding as the area of snow shifts
more steadily southward with a southward moving cold front. Have
gone with the idea of some maintenance of banding signatures
despite evidence in some of the short range guidance of a quicker
erosion of the precip shield. While there doesn't look to be
instability above the lower-level frontogenesis, have to consider
the possibility of f-gen banding remaining stronger longer than on
a majority of the guidance (as shown on 12z wrf-arw and nmm).

The narrow dgz, only short period of lift maximizing within dgz,
and temps close to freezing during the event will keep ratios
mostly below 10:1, perhaps highest far north and northwest.

Amounts are favored to be up to around an inch roughly between
i-80 and i-88, 1-2" north of i-88 and best chance for 2 to locally
3" amounts closer to the wisconsin border. There may be some minor
travel impacts Saturday morning given mostly light snowfall rates.

As the precip area likely further diminishes in intensity Saturday
afternoon with southward progression, it will also encounter
temps likely having warmed to above freezing, so any accums south
will be likely a dusting to a few tenths at most on colder grassy
surfaces. A marginal set-up for lake effect precipitation will
then evolve with northerly flow over the lake, caa, and with time
lower-level convergence late day into Saturday night. Given low
inversion heights below 6kft, suspect lake effect precip will be
spotty, so kept pops in only slight to low chance range for this
for now, but will need to monitor trends. Finally, elevated
frontal zone will remain stalled near or south of southern cwa
Saturday night into Sunday morning with subtle low amplitude
wave(s) interacting with it. This could bring some additional
light snow accums to areas south of the kankakee river, with low
magnitude of forcing likely keeping any accums under 1". Sunday
will feature decreasing clouds and light winds but continued
unseasonably chilly highs in the lower to mid 30s after starting
in the 20s.

Castro

Long term
310 pm cst
Sunday night through Friday...

Sunday night through Tuesday night: broad troughing over hudson bay
will begin to slowly shift east during this time, with deep cyclonic
flow remaining over the western great lakes. However, conditions
should remain dry across the area. The one exception will be the
potential for a brief shot of les for mainly northern porter county
sometime Monday night into Tuesday behind a mid-level trough. H8
temps are only marginally supportive of les, so would not expect
any significant impacts.

Wednesday through Friday: guidance begins to differ in the eastward
progression of the broad trough over eastern canada by this time.

However, the general evolution will be toward mid-level ridging and
southerly surface winds over the central CONUS by Friday, promoting
temps closer to normal for late november.

Kluber

Aviation
For the 18z tafs...

aviation concerns include moderately gusty west-northwest winds
and MVFR ceilings this afternoon, then the potential ifr
conditions in light snow late tonight through Saturday morning.

Low pressure continues to pull slowly away from the great lakes
region this mid-day, with breezy west-northwest surface winds
gusting around 20 kts across the area at times. Extensive MVFR
stratus was evident in satellite imagery, extending upstream
across wi ia mn. Models indicate erosion of the MVFR deck from
the west during the late afternoon hours, though expect this may
be a bit too quick. Should see a gradual lifting of cloud bases
during the afternoon though, along with a gradual weakening of the
gradient and loss of gusts by sunset.

Attention then turns to a quick-moving clipper-type disturbance
currently moving out of the northern rockies. Light snow is
expected to develop across far northern il around after midnight,
though may struggle initially as drier low levels take time to
saturate. The greatest potential for more intense snow appears to
be early Saturday morning, with a period of ifr conditions and
accumulation expected. Mid-level drying will develop mid-day
Saturday, which should allow for a quick diminishing of the snow.

A few flurries... Or perhaps some drizzle or sprinkles... May
continue into the afternoon hours. Winds will become light and
variable overnight tonight, eventually becoming north-northeast
Saturday morning.

Ratzer

Lot watches warnings advisories
Il... None.

In... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory... In nearshore waters until 9 pm Friday.

Small craft advisory... Il nearshore waters until 3 pm Friday.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CNII2 1 mi24 min WSW 8.9 G 13 39°F 31°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 5 mi39 min W 19 G 20 40°F 32°F
JAKI2 5 mi99 min WNW 8 G 14 40°F
FSTI2 9 mi99 min W 22 39°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 9 mi39 min WSW 7 G 13 39°F 1016.4 hPa (+1.6)32°F
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 28 mi39 min WNW 8.9 G 12 41°F 1017.3 hPa (+2.1)
45186 37 mi39 min WNW 12 39°F 43°F1 ft
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 37 mi59 min W 9.9 G 15 38°F
45187 45 mi39 min 40°F 44°F1 ft

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago, Chicago Midway Airport, IL9 mi46 minW 1010.00 miOvercast39°F30°F70%1017.9 hPa
Chicago, Chicago-O'Hare International Airport, IL18 mi48 minW 1010.00 miOvercast38°F30°F76%1017.1 hPa
Gary Regional Airport, IN19 mi54 minW 1010.00 miOvercast41°F32°F70%1017.3 hPa
Lansing Municipal Airport, IL22 mi44 minW 910.00 miOvercast38°F30°F74%1016.9 hPa
Chicago / Wheeling, Pal-Waukee Airport, IL24 mi47 minW 910.00 miOvercast39°F28°F67%1017.4 hPa

Wind History from MDW (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Chicago, IL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.