Tuesday, March19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Dune Acres, IN

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:51AMSunset 6:59PM Tuesday March 19, 2019 3:34 AM CDT (08:34 UTC) Moonrise 5:28PMMoonset 6:23AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ779 Expires:201903191530;;590977 Fzus63 Kmkx 190747 Glflm Open Lake Forecast For Lake Michigan National Weather Service Milwaukee/sullivan Wi 247 Am Cdt Tue Mar 19 2019 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan. Waves Are Provided As A Range Of Significant Wave Heights, Which Is The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave, Along With The Average Height Of The Highest 10% Of The Waves Which Will Occasionally Be Encountered.
Synopsis.. A large area of high pressure around 30.5 inches will drift to the southeast today. A cold front will move across lake michigan Wednesday afternoon, as low pressure of 29.9 moves across far northern ontario into quebec. Southwest winds will become gusty ahead of the cold front, especially across the northern half of the lake, with a few gusts around 25 knots. West to northwest winds are expected behind the front. High pressure of 30.4 inches will then move from the northern plains into southern lake michigan Thursday through Saturday, with some gusty winds Thursday night into Friday ahead of it. Lmz080-669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878-191530- lake michigan from michigan city in to st. Joseph mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from sheboygan to port washington wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from port washington to north point light wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from north point light to wind point wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wind point wi to winthrop harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from winthrop harbor to wilmette harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wilmette harbor il to michigan city in 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from whitehall to pentwater mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from grand haven to whitehall mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from holland to grand haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from south haven to holland mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from st. Joseph to south haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 247 am cdt Tue mar 19 2019 sheboygan wi to pentwater mi south...
Today..West winds 5 to 10 kt becoming southwest late this morning, then becoming southwest 5 to 10 kt early this afternoon becoming south 10 to 20 kt late. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 20 kt becoming southwest. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt. Chance of rain showers in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 5 ft subsiding to 2 to 4 ft.
Wednesday night..Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt becoming north 15 to 25 kt. Chance of rain showers. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Thursday..Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt becoming west. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Thursday night..West winds 15 to 25 kt becoming northwest to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft building to 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Friday..North winds to 30 kt. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Saturday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 kt backing to southwest 10 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
LMZ779


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Dune Acres, IN
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location: 41.87, -87.2     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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Fxus63 klot 190758
afdlot
area forecast discussion
national weather service chicago romeoville, il
258 am cdt Tue mar 19 2019

Short term
258 am cdt
through Wednesday night...

goes-16 differential water vapor rgb this morning depicts a
compact and rather vigorous looking closed low dropping due south
across the northern high plains. This upper low is progged to dig
south to nebraska by early this evening before moving more east
toward the mid-mississippi valley by Wednesday morning. Guidance
has continued to trend stronger with this wave and now show it
phasing with another short wave digging south into the western
great lakes Wednesday morning.

This trend toward a stronger, more phased solution, unsurprisingly
has been accompanied by a trend toward more QPF later tues night
into Wednesday. Continued to trend pops upward even a bit more
from previous forecast. As mentioned in the previous afd, cannot
rule out a brief period of some mixed wet snow or perhaps ice
pellets as column saturates, but vast majority of the precip looks
to fall as rain. QPF is light enough that very little response is
expected on the already swollen area rivers.

Otherwise, no real forecast concerns or changes in the near term
with seasonable temps expected today and Wednesday.

- izzi

Long term
258 am cdt
Thursday through Tuesday...

long term period will start off with a highly amplified very
blocky pattern across the u.S. With a narrow but high amplitude
ridge extending from the southern plains to the southern canadian
rockies. This ridge will be sandwiched between a sharp trough
attempting to break eastward through the ridge and an eastern
departing long wave trough. Pattern is expected to remain fairly
blocky through the upcoming weekend, transitioning from an omega
block later this week to more of a rex block over the weekend as
the western upper low is eventually progged to scoot east
underneath the upper ridge.

The upper ridge is forecast to make some headway eastward, though
trend has been for this to be slower to occur (not surprising in a
backed up pattern like this). Still, looks for temperatures to
gradually moderate Thursday through Sunday, though it now appears
a backdoor and lake enhanced cold front could knock temps down
into the 30s lakeside Friday while locations well inland climb
well into the 50s.

Eventually, the western upper low will make it east into our neck
of the woods with increasing shower chances late in the weekend
and in particular early next week. Given the blocking pattern in
place, wouldn't be at all surprised to see later runs delay the
onset of precip chances, so confidence in the precipitation
forecast is fairly low late in the period.

Fairly high confidence in significant lake cooling on Friday,
however, there is more uncertainty over the weekend with regards
to potential lake cooling. A lot will depend on the proximity of
the departing high and approaching low.

- izzi

Aviation
For the 06z tafs...

there are no weather concerns through much of the period.

Overall, expect southwesterly winds during the day as high
pressure shifts over the ohio valley.VFR conditions are expect.

Our next weather system will approach the area late tonight into
Wednesday. This may result in some lower CIGS and a possible
period of light rain over the terminals Wednesday morning. This is
currently beyond the current TAF period, so no mention of
precipitation has been included in the forecast.

Kjb

Lot watches warnings advisories
Il... None.

In... None.

Lm... None.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 16 mi31 min SSW 4.1 G 6 36°F 1028.8 hPa
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 18 mi35 min S 7 G 8 35°F 27°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 20 mi35 min W 12 G 13 38°F 26°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 20 mi41 min SW 2.9 G 5.1 35°F 1027.9 hPa27°F
JAKI2 21 mi95 min W 5.1 G 8 37°F
FSTI2 25 mi95 min WSW 7 36°F
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 41 mi35 min SSW 7 G 11 35°F 1028.8 hPa (-0.3)

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Gary Regional Airport, IN21 mi40 minN 010.00 miFair32°F27°F84%1029.1 hPa
Michigan City Municipal Airport, IN23 mi40 minN 010.00 miFair30°F23°F75%1028.8 hPa

Wind History from GYY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW4W5W7W6W4W5W555437W15W10W10W7SW4SW5--SW3S3SW3CalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmS7W9S7W6SW7W7W9SW10SW10N10--N7N5CalmCalmCalm--CalmCalmCalmCalmW5
2 days agoW10
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SW5W15NE76NE744CalmCalm3--SE3SE3CalmSE3S3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Chicago, IL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.