Sunrise 5:44 AM   Sunset 7:45 PM Moonrise 1:05 AM   Moonset 9:36 AM

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LMZ779 Expires:202404300330;;333757 Fzus63 Kmkx 291953 Glflm
open lake forecast for lake michigan national weather service milwaukee/sullivan wi 253 pm cdt Mon apr 29 2024
for waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on lake michigan.
waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered.
Synopsis -
areas of dense fog are expected across the northern half of the lake into late this evening as southeasterly winds continue. As winds shift southwesterly, expect fog to dissipate.
low pressure of 29.7 inches continues to lift toward lake superior from northwestern wisconsin tonight, with winds shifting to southwesterly and weakening as low pressure begins to fill. Expect southwesterly winds to continue through Tuesday, shifting to southeasterly and increasing Tuesday night as low pressure of 29.5 inches approaches the area from the northern great plains. A few Thunderstorms are possible Tuesday night across the southern half of the lake. Winds shift back to southwesterly and diminish into Wednesday afternoon as low pressure lifts northward.
lmz080-669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878-300330- lake michigan from michigan city in to st. Joseph mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from sheboygan to port washington wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from port washington to north point light wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from north point light to wind point wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wind point wi to winthrop harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from winthrop harbor to wilmette harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wilmette harbor il to michigan city in 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from whitehall to pentwater mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from grand haven to whitehall mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from holland to grand haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from south haven to holland mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from st. Joseph to south haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 253 pm cdt Mon apr 29 2024
sheboygan wi to pentwater mi south - .
Tonight - Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt becoming west 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Tuesday - West winds 5 to 10 kt backing to southeast 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Tuesday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 kt becoming south. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Wednesday - Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Wednesday night - South winds 5 to 10 kt backing to northeast 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Thursday - East winds 10 to 20 kt becoming southeast. Chance of showers. Waves 1 to 3 ft building to 2 to 4 ft. Thursday night - South winds 10 to 20 kt increasing to 15 to 25 kt. Showers likely. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Friday - South winds 15 to 25 kt becoming southwest 10 to 20 kt. Chance of showers. Waves 3 to 5 ft. Saturday - Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt becoming south. Chance of showers. Waves 1 to 3 ft.

LMZ700
No data

FXUS63 KLOT 291953 CCA AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 253 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Chance (30%) of showers through sunset.

- After a break on Tuesday, a stormy pattern returns for a period midweek along with continued unseasonably warm temperatures.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 252 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Through Tuesday Night:

A cold front will move across the area late this afternoon into early this evening with a chance of showers through sunset, ending from west to east with the cold front. Instability is weak but an isolated thunderstorm is possible generally east of I-57. Southwest winds will slowly turn westerly and remain gusty to 30 mph through sunset and then will quickly diminish.

Quiet and dry weather is expected tonight and Tuesday. Lows in the 40s for most areas tonight, lower 50s in Chicago. Highs will rebound well into the 70s for Tuesday with a lake breeze expected, which will likely move inland in the late afternoon and early evening before dissipating, turning temps cooler behind it.

Another cold front will move across the area Tuesday night.
Convection is expected to develop Tuesday afternoon well west of the local area and spread into the area in the late evening and overnight but in a weakening/dissipating phase. Much of the guidance keeps the eastern half of the area completely dry now.
Lowered pops for Tuesday night and if current trends continue, much of the area may remain dry. cms

Wednesday through Monday:

Dry and mild weather is expected for Wednesday, with high temperatures expected to be in the 70s. However, cooler conditions are likely to develop along the Lake Michigan shores late in the day as the winds will turn east-northeasterly with the approach of backdoor cold front. This cold front will ultimately shift back northward across far northern IL into southern WI as a warm front on Thursday in response to the next wave of low pressure tracking northeastward into the Upper Midwest. As this occurs, increasing warm air advection over the front may foster the development of scatted elevated showers and storms over parts of northern IL late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. The focus for these storms should then shift northward into WI with the warm front into Thursday afternoon, thus leaving our area in the breezy warm sector. Breezy south winds (gusting 30 to 35 mph) Thursday afternoon could push temperatures into the lower to mid 80s for highs.

The parent surface low is expected to occlude late Thursday night as it shifts northward into northern MN and far southwestern Ontario. As it does so, the attendant surface cold front will slide eastward into our area late Thursday night into Friday. An additional period of showers and thunderstorms is likely to accompany this front, with the highest chances (60%+ chances) coming Thursday night through Friday morning. We will need to continue to monitor the potential for any hydrologic concerns during this time frame given the recent rainfall and that precipitable water values near or in excess of 1.5" (near- record values for this time of year here, per DVN and ILX sounding climatology) are progged to be drawn northward out ahead of the cold front. A north-northeastward storm movement could also result in a period of training cells along the cold frontal boundary, which may lead to some narrow corridors of enhanced rainfall and possible flooding.

In the wake of the cold frontal passage, temperatures are favored to return closer to normal going into the weekend before another warm-up appears to be on the horizon going into next week.

KJB



AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Main Concerns:

- Timing improvement of MVFR CIGs this afternoon

- Widely scattered SHRA this afternoon

- Potential lake breeze wind shift to easterly late day Tuesday

A cold front will shift across the terminals this afternoon. Out ahead of the cold front, MVFR CIGs , widely scattered SHRA, and gusty southwest winds (gusts to ~25 kt) are the items of note.
With the main axis of SHRA back near RFD and the back edge of the MVFR CIGs west of RFD as of this writing, pushed back timing of CIG improvement and VCSH mention a bit in the TAFs for the Chicago area terminals. Winds will shift westerly and quickly diminish early this evening.

The only item of uncertainty on Tuesday is timing a potential/probable lake breeze wind shift to easterly at ORD and MDW. Opposing westerly winds should be strong enough to keep the lake breeze at bay until toward or around 00z Wednesday (tomorrow evening). Thus will likely address the wind shift with the next full TAF issuance this evening.

Castro

LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...None.

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