Tuesday, June25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Dune Acres, IN

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6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 5:12AMSunset 8:27PM Tuesday June 25, 2019 9:59 PM CDT (02:59 UTC) Moonrise 1:06AMMoonset 1:04PM Illumination 39% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ779 Expires:201906260915;;081402 Fzus63 Kmkx 260144 Glflm Open Lake Forecast For Lake Michigan National Weather Service Milwaukee/sullivan Wi 844 Pm Cdt Tue Jun 25 2019 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan. Waves Are Provided As A Range Of Significant Wave Heights, Which Is The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave, Along With The Average Height Of The Highest 10% Of The Waves Which Will Occasionally Be Encountered.
Synopsis.. Low pressure of 29.3 inches will drift to james bay tonight. Meanwhile, high pressure of 30.1 inches remains anchored over the southeast u.s. Breezy west winds are expected overnight behind a cold front, which will continue to pass through the lake this evening. West to southwest winds will continue on Wednesday. South to southwest flow will develop across the lake late this week, as high pressure of 30.2 inches remains over the carolinas, with weak low pressure in the lee of the rocky mountains. Multiple rounds of Thunderstorms will be possible between Wednesday night and the weekend, as a warm front lifts north through the region. Some stronger storms can not be ruled out during this time. Lmz080-669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878-260915- lake michigan from michigan city in to st. Joseph mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from sheboygan to port washington wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from port washington to north point light wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from north point light to wind point wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wind point wi to winthrop harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from winthrop harbor to wilmette harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wilmette harbor il to michigan city in 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from whitehall to pentwater mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from grand haven to whitehall mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from holland to grand haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from south haven to holland mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from st. Joseph to south haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 844 pm cdt Tue jun 25 2019 sheboygan wi to pentwater mi south...
Rest of tonight..Southwest winds 15 to 25 kt diminishing to 10 to 20 kt late this evening, then becoming southwest 10 to 20 kt after midnight becoming west 10 to 15 kt late. Slight chance of Thunderstorms through early evening. With damaging winds and large hail. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Wednesday..West winds 10 to 15 kt backing to south. Waves 1 to 3 ft subsiding to 1 to 2 ft.
Wednesday night..South winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thursday..South winds 10 to 15 kt. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Thursday night..South winds 10 to 15 kt. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Friday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 kt increasing to 10 to 15 kt. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Friday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Saturday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 kt increasing to 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sunday..North winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
LMZ779


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Dune Acres, IN
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location: 41.87, -87.2     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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Fxus63 klot 260226
afdlot
area forecast discussion
national weather service chicago romeoville, il
926 pm cdt Tue jun 25 2019

Mesoscale discussion
925 pm cdt
closely watching the small MCS over west central illinois that has
persisted for quite a while from back to south central illinois.

Recently, this has contained a small bowing segment with severe
wind in the ilx cwa. The trajectory of the rij and wind signature
with this would most likely take it just south of southern
livingston and ford counties. In addition, recent scans from kilx
indicate that outflow has surged out ahead of the leading edge
reflectivity.

However, of note, a pair of supercells approaching the peoria
metro may threaten the livingston, ford, and possibly iroquois
counties with hail wind if they maintain intensity. Radar
extrapolation of these cells would place them near far southwest
livingston county near 1040 pm cdt. With increasing convective
inhibition, it's possible but not certain that these storms will
weaken in time to preclude a severe threat, but will continue to
monitor them. A pocket of enhanced deep layer shear may help them
sustain to close to counties mentioned above despite the
increasing cinh.

Otherwise, based off the overall trajectory of the lead MCS over
west central illinois, showers and thunderstorms will be favored
primarily south of the illinois and kankakee rivers, with likely
little no threat of rain to the north, particularly north of i-80.

Another cluster of thunderstorms over southern iowa is tracking
east-southeast and it to would favor the far southern cwa
overnight if it holds together, though this is of low confidence.

Castro

Short term
140 pm cdt
through tonight...

for the remainder of the afternoon, main concern will be convective
trends associated with an old MCV moving along the il wi border.

As of 115pm cdt, convective activity is on an increasing trend as
the forcing from the MCV is beginning to tap an environment with
increasing instability, temperatures in the lower to middle 80s,
dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s and ml CAPE of 1000 j kg,
and more favorable wind shear as winds turn from sly 15-25 kt at
the sfc to wly 35-50 kt in the 2-4km agl layer. The strongest
storms are currently along the northern winnebago county border,
with the current trajectory taking the storm into SRN wi. Latest
satellite imagery indicates increasing coverage of enhanced cu
developing to the south of the main upper level circulation center
with the potential for upscale development of thunderstorm
activity into a more organized cluster. Based on the current path
of the mcv, locations along and north of the i-88 corridor will be
the most likely to see strong to, possibly, severe thunderstorm
development, but strong thunderstorms as far south as the i-80
corridor cannot be ruled out. Based on the current speed of the
the mcv, thunderstorms will be possibly until 23z to 00z this
evening. Guidance has also been suggesting a second round of
thunderstorms late tonight, after 06z. The latest guidance is
suggesting that convective initiation with this second round of
thunder will occur along the iowa missouri border and then spread
to the east. This would suggest that the most favored location for
this second round of thunder will be south of the i-80 corridor.

Long term
250 pm cdt
Wednesday through Tuesday...

the primary forecast concerns remain the thunderstorm chances and
frequency especially into the weekend.

Any thunderstorms tonight will likely have shifted south of the
cwa and or weakened by Wednesday morning. The low-level boundary
should be extremely diffuse, and probably more of a weak outflow
composite boundary draped somewhere just south of the area. The
mid-level belt of west-northwesterlies will continue to be modest
on Wednesday atop a gradually developing warm advection regime.

All of this together points toward a somewhat nebulous focus for
convection during the afternoon. If an impulse, such as a remnant
mcv like today were to become more evident in the mid-level flow,
then its possible something could be keyed in on more so for
scattered storms. By later in the evening into overnight, the
low-level jet focus into the upper mississippi river valley will
likely support scattered storms there that could become semi-
organized and evolve into northern illinois.

With expected sun, Wednesday should again see widespread mid 80s.

A lake breeze is expected that will cool immediate lakeside
locations into the 60s during the mid afternoon or so.

The end of the week through early next week is looking very warm
and humid with highs each day in the mid upper 80s with dewpoints
from the mid 60s to lower 70s. The 00z gfs ECMWF build the ridge
into the western great lakes and possibly across the entire area
by Saturday. Convection that forms to the northwest will have the
potential to move southeast into the CWA along the edge of the
ridge. Timing is difficult but there does appear to be some
consensus for Thursday night into Friday morning. If this were to
occur it may not have a large affect on high temps on Friday
unless additional afternoon thunderstorms redeveloped Friday
afternoon. As the trends stand now... Saturday may end up being dry
with temps possibly into the lower 90s but confidence is low and
maintained blend temps in the upper 80s. In the absence of any
outflow boundaries... Forecast soundings would suggest surface
winds would be strong enough to prevent a lake breeze Friday and
Saturday.

Going into Sunday Monday, the 12z ECMWF continued to build high
pressure southeast across the lower great lakes region. This
would result in a cold front across the area in the Sunday
timeframe which would probably lead to a period of thunderstorms
and then drier cooler easterly flow off the lake. This solution is
currently not depicted in the forecast blend and its possible
that the upper ridge does build farther east as previous model
runs had shown. Thus confidence is very low.

Mtf cms

Aviation
For the 00z tafs...

overall, while the chances of additional thunderstorms late
in the period will not be zero, but the chances are too low to
include in the tafs at this time. Any additional thunderstorm
activity tonight is likely to remain southwest of the terminals.

So, it is looking to be a quiet period of weather tonight into
Wednesday. If any additional storms were to develop near any of
the terminals it would not be until later Wednesday afternoon or
evening.

The gusty west-southwesterly winds will abate over the next couple
hours, with light west-southwesterly flow likely for much of the
day Wednesday. A lake breeze could make a run on ord, mdw and gyy
later in the afternoon. If it makes it to these terminals, expect
a wind shift out of the east for a few hours into early Wednesday
evening.

Kjb

Lot watches warnings advisories
Il... None.

In... None.

Lm... None.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45170 15 mi39 min SW 7.8 G 9.7 69°F 61°F2 ft62°F
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 16 mi54 min SSW 7 G 11 79°F 1012.2 hPa
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 18 mi59 min SSW 12 G 14 79°F 62°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 20 mi59 min W 15 G 16 83°F 61°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 20 mi65 min SSW 6 G 8.9 80°F 1011.3 hPa64°F
JAKI2 21 mi119 min WSW 5.1 G 7 82°F
CNII2 22 mi44 min W 5.1 G 12 80°F 56°F
OKSI2 23 mi119 min N 1 G 5.1 83°F
FSTI2 25 mi119 min WSW 16 81°F
45174 30 mi39 min S 1.9 G 3.9 1 ft1009.4 hPa
45026 - St. Joseph, MI 32 mi39 min WSW 9.7 G 12 68°F 61°F1 ft1011.4 hPa61°F
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 41 mi59 min S 6 G 12 71°F 1012.2 hPa (-2.0)
45186 47 mi39 min S 1.9 G 3.9 59°F 56°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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G17
SE6
G11
SE4
NE4
--

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Gary Regional Airport, IN21 mi74 minSSW 1010.00 miA Few Clouds82°F60°F48%1011.8 hPa
Michigan City Municipal Airport, IN23 mi2.4 hrsSW 10 G 1710.00 miPartly Cloudy79°F37°F23%1011.8 hPa

Wind History from GYY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW8W7SW4SW4SW5SW4SW4SW5SW9W12W15SE8SW9SW10SW7SW8SW15
G25
SW15SW15SW16
G28
SW12
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SW12SW10SW5
1 day agoCalmS5S5S6S4S3SW3SW6SW5SW5W9SW8SW9SW10----SW13
G23
SW16SW10SW15W20W14W20W12
2 days agoSE4SE5SE5SE9
G14
SE7SE6E6SE7SE5SE7SE12SE14SE15S7
G22
SE15SE4SE5SE5SE6--SE4CalmCalmS6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Chicago, IL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.