Thursday, September20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Dune Acres, IN

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9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 6:32AMSunset 6:48PM Thursday September 20, 2018 2:51 AM CDT (07:51 UTC) Moonrise 4:52PMMoonset 2:02AM Illumination 78% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ779 Lake Michigan From Michigan City In To St. Joseph Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Sheboygan To Port Washington Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Port Washington To North Point Light Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From North Point Light To Wind Point Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor Il 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Wilmette Harbor Il To Michigan City In 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Whitehall To Pentwater Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Grand Haven To Whitehall Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Holland To Grand Haven Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From South Haven To Holland Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From St. Joseph To South Haven Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- 856 Am Cdt Wed Sep 19 2018 Sheboygan Wi To Pentwater Mi South...
Rest of today..Northeast winds 10 to 20 kt. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms this afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Tonight..East winds 10 to 20 kt becoming southeast. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers and Thunderstorms likely overnight. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Thursday..Southeast winds 10 to 20 kt becoming south. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning. Waves 2 to 4 ft building to 3 to 5 ft.
Thursday night..South winds to 30 kt becoming southwest. A few gale force gusts to 35kt possible. Waves 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft building to 7 to 10 ft occasionally to 13 ft.
Friday..West winds to 30 kt becoming northwest. Gales to 35 kt possible. Waves 6 to 9 ft occasionally to 12 ft.
Friday night..North winds to 30 kt becoming northeast 10 to 20 kt. Waves 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft subsiding to 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
Saturday..East winds 10 to 20 kt becoming southeast 5 to 10 kt. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft subsiding to 2 to 4 ft.
Sunday..East winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
LMZ779 Expires:201809192030;;883158 FZUS63 KLOT 191356 GLFLM OPEN LAKE FORECAST for Lake Michigan National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 856 AM CDT Wed Sep 19 2018 FOR WATERS BEYOND FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON Lake Michigan. Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. .SYNOPSIS...High pressure of 30.1 inches over Ontario and the northern Great Lakes will gradually shift northeast tonight. Low pressure of 29.5 inches will develop over the Central Plains tonight and then lift northeast to the Upper Mississippi Valley Thursday evening. The low will track across the Upper Great Lakes Thursday night while dragging a strong cold front across the lake. High pressure of 30.4 inches will spread across the Upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes Region Saturday. LMZ080-669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878-192030-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Dune Acres, IN
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location: 41.87, -87.2     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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Fxus63 klot 200738
afdlot
area forecast discussion
national weather service chicago romeoville, il
238 am cdt Thu sep 20 2018

Short term
313 pm cdt
through this evening...

main forecast concerns challenges are with shower thunderstorm
trends this afternoon into this evening, and once again later
tonight into Thursday morning.

Latest radar trends showing the precip shield which has been
approaching the CWA today now in place across north central il,
along and west of i-39. This area of precip will likely continue
to push further east over the next several hours, but likely
staying similar with coverage and intensity. Thunder has remained
limited with this precip, though isolated thunder will still
likely remain possible as it moves into remaining areas in
northern il, along north of i-88, this afternoon.

A boundary situated across the southern portions of the CWA in
east central il in is providing widely varying conditions over the
area, with conditions south of the boundary now quite unstable.

Will need to keep an eye on this location for possible isolated
thunderstorm development this afternoon into the evening for a
couple of reasons. First, satellite trends have shown expanding cu
development along south of the kankakee river valley. Steep low
level lapse rates now in place, with latest rap analysis showing
sb instability and limited cin. Current precip trends just to the
south could easily affect the southern cwa, and have kept slight
chance pops for this afternoon. Not overly confident with how
intense any storms could get, but can't rule out an isolated
stronger storm. Second, additional storm development over east and
southeast ia is slowly diminishing while moving east southeast.

However, it will be reaching this more unstable area here in the
near term, and it's quite possible for it to continue following
the instability southeast. If this were to occur, once again,
locations south of the kankakee river valley would have the
highest chances. The threat for an isolated stronger storm would
also be possible with this area of precip. Precip chances are then
expected to lower by evening, with dry conditions generally
expected this evening before chances increase once again late
tonight.

Rodriguez

Long term
238 am cdt
Friday night through Wednesday...

surface high pressure builds across the great lakes region Friday
night as the cold front settles into the ohio valley. Cooler, drier
low level air spreads into the forecast area on north-northeasterly
winds. Steep low-level lapse rates develop as the cooler air crosses
still mild lake michigan waters, and forecast soundings suggest a
period of lake-induced stratocu into northeast il Friday night into
Saturday morning, which along with a breezy northeast wind will
likely keep temps from dipping too low close to the lake. Some model
guidance even tries to develop a little lake-effect precip, though
forecast soundings suggest inversion heights around 5000-6000 ft
which would likely limit anything to just sprinkles. Further inland
however, across north central il, where skies remain clear mostly
clear and winds decouple, temps may drop into the low-mid 40s by
sunrise Saturday.

Once lake effect clouds decay Saturday, pleasant weather is in store
for the first weekend of autumn. High pressure will continue to
drift slowly east across the great lakes, providing dry, seasonably
cool weather with onshore lake winds. Daytime highs should range
from the low-mid 60s near the lake, to the upper 60s low 70s farther
inland and south Saturday. Widespread lows in the 40s are expected
Saturday night away from the immediate lakeshore and city, when
light winds and mainly clear skies will provide the strongest
radiational cooling conditions. Moderating low level temps Sunday
should support low-mid 70s away from the lake.

An upper level trough will propagate from the west coast into the
rockies Sunday night, inducing low pressure development across the
plains, and a gradual veering of the low level flow into the midwest
into Monday. Warm moist advection associated with this return flow,
and continued height falls forced by the approaching upper trough,
will lead to the return of shower chances early next week. While the
ecmwf has been developing precip as early as late Sunday night, the
greatest potential for rain and a few thunderstorms appears to be
Monday night into Tuesday, with the arrival of the amplifying upper
trough, and the approach of a cold front. While clouds and precip
may have an impact, temps should warm in the mid-upper 70s in many
areas ahead of the front Monday Tuesday. Cooler weather then returns
behind the front Tuesday night and Wednesday. Presence of the deep
upper trough aloft may support lingering clouds and perhaps a few
showers sprinkles.

Ratzer

Climate
Record high temps could be jeopardy Thursday. Here are the
current records:
chicago 92 (2017)
rockford 92 (1920)

Aviation
For the 06z tafs...

the main concern through the period will be the timing of wind
direction changes, and increasing southerly winds today.

Additionally, we will once again be on the lookout for storms
possibly impacting some of the terminals overnight, and then
possibly again this afternoon.

Winds are likely to remain easterly a bit longer early today as it
appears that the warm front may be slower to move northward across
the area into this afternoon. Therefore, it appears that the area
will remain in an area favorable for low CIGS through at least
around daybreak. Current satellite imagery indicates that the
eastern edge of these ifr CIGS are right near ord. So, the main
chicago area terminals maybe in and out of low CIGS through the
night. Lowering vsby will also be possible at the terminals as dew
point depressions lower.

The other concern is for a round of thunderstorms overnight
towards daybreak. For the most part the focus for storms has
remained north of the area into southern wi. However, current
trends with the thunderstorms in iowa indicate outflow pushing the
storms a bit more to the south. As a result, it appears probable
that a round of thunderstorms will push across far northern il
after 09z. It appears krfd stands the best chance of getting in on
this activity, though I am concerned the ord and dpa could also
see some of this activity move into the area just prior to
daybreak. For now I have added a vcts at both sites to cover this
threat, but I have left it out of mdw and gyy for now. Trends will
need to continue to be watched overnight.

With the possibly for a slower northward moving warm front, it is
possible that some additional isolated to widely scattered storms
could develop in the vicinity of the chicago area terminals this
afternoon. However, confidence is very low at this time on if this
will occur, so I have left the mention out of the TAF at this
time.

Otherwise, expect winds to turn southerly and begin to increase by
late this afternoon early this evening as the warm front finally
shifts north of the area. It appears that winds will gust up to 30
kt at times tonight from the south-southwest.

Kjb

Lot watches warnings advisories
Il... None.

In... None.

Lm... None.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45170 15 mi21 min SSE 12 G 14 71°F 70°F2 ft67°F
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 16 mi71 min SSE 6 G 8.9 73°F 1015.2 hPa
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 18 mi31 min SE 12 G 15 71°F 66°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 20 mi31 min SE 6 G 7 71°F 70°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 20 mi39 min Calm G 1 68°F 1014.1 hPa68°F
JAKI2 21 mi111 min Calm G 1.9 70°F
CNII2 22 mi21 min ESE 1.9 G 4.1 69°F 66°F
FSTI2 25 mi111 min E 5.1 69°F
45174 30 mi21 min W 1.9 G 3.9 71°F 70°F2 ft71°F
45026 - St. Joseph, MI 32 mi21 min SSE 14 G 18 70°F 67°F2 ft1014.7 hPa63°F
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 41 mi51 min SSW 1.9 G 6 70°F 1015.6 hPa (-1.0)
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 47 mi71 min N 11 G 14 69°F
45186 47 mi31 min NNE 7.8 70°F 70°F1 ft

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Gary Regional Airport, IN21 mi56 minN 00.25 miFog66°F66°F100%1014.9 hPa
Michigan City Municipal Airport, IN23 mi56 minSE 410.00 miFair70°F64°F83%1015.6 hPa

Wind History from GYY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN6NE6NE8NE9NE5N6NE8CalmNE6N10NE7N10N14NE12N7N10
G23
NE12E73NE3N4CalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmN3N3NE3NE4NW7NW11CalmCalmN7N6
G17
N14N10NE96CalmNE10N10NE4NE5NE4NE4N6N6
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4SW3W5N8NE6NE7NE8NE5E4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Chicago, IL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.