Wednesday, May22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Friendsville, PA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:34AMSunset 8:25PM Wednesday May 22, 2019 4:41 PM EDT (20:41 UTC) Moonrise 11:07PMMoonset 7:43AM Illumination 85% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Friendsville , PA
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location: 41.88, -75.96     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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Fxus61 kbgm 221952
afdbgm
area forecast discussion
national weather service binghamton ny
352 pm edt Wed may 22 2019

Synopsis
Expect increasing clouds and some scattered showers tonight. A
line of thunderstorms, some possibly severe with strong winds
and hail, will move through central new york and northeast
pennsylvania Thursday afternoon. Quiet but cooler weather then
returns for Friday. Watching for another round of potentially
severe thunderstorms for parts of the area later Saturday as
temperatures rise back into the 70s.

Near term through Thursday night
High clouds are overspreading the region on the periphery of an
expansive upper level anticyclone centered over the southeast
us. A weak wave along an advancing warm front will push into
the area later this evening into the overnight hours. This will
bring a round of showers to the area, and a rumble of thunder
cannot be completely ruled out overnight. Winds are turning
southeast, then southerly tonight. Winds increase between 7-15
mph tonight, with a few higher gusts. Not as cold tonight with
lows in the 50s.

Low level drying should allow skies to break out to at least
partly sunny on Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front. A
narrow wedge of ml CAPE values progged around 800-1200 j kg
should develop during the afternoon, while a mid-level jet is
forecast to move through ny pa and enhance shear profiles. There
will be a bit of a cap, with around 100 j kg of CIN around in
the morning that should suppress the initial line of
convection. The main concern will be behind this initial line as
forcing increases and discrete cells redevelop mid to late
afternoon, then progress southeast, perhaps forming into line
segments.

Not a lot of changes in the latest guidance for the potential
severe weather Thursday afternoon and evening. Bulk shear
values (0-6 km) will be 55-65 kts across most of the forecast
area by Thursday afternoon. Good low level turning is expected
with the nam12 forecast sr helicity values in excess of 300-500
m2 s2. This combination of shear and instability favors
supercells and strong bowing line segments. Storms could produce
strong wind gusts, hail and even an isolated tornado cannot be
ruled out as well, considering the strong low level shear.

Timing: the first, mainly elevated line of convection should
move through the central and northern portion of the CWA late
morning to midday. Then, as the atmosphere destabilizes (and the
weak low level cap breaks) stronger convection should develop
across the finger lakes syracuse area between about 2-5 pm;
moving southeast to the i-81 and i-88 corridor in cny 4-7 pm,
then into sullivan county ny and NE pa 5-9 pm.

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms could linger into
the late evening on Thursday, then just isolated showers
overnight under mostly cloudy skies. Cold air advection
strengthens under a developing northwest flow overnight as lows
dip down into the 50s once again.

Short term Friday through Saturday
Quiet day on Friday as a northwest flow of cooler and stable
air streams into the area. Surface high pressure builds into the
area late in the day. Residual clouds over the eastern zones
will erodes through the day.

Friday night will be dry as the high slides east and upper
ridge builds. On Saturday, southerly flow develops ahead of the
next fast moving system. Cold front enters western ny late in
the day with some semblance of a surface warm front along the
mohawk valley. This may set up yet another severe weather
scenario with considerable shear, and the potential for
damaging storms depending on the available energy. Plenty of
variables still to be worked out and timing an issue.

Long term Saturday night through Wednesday
Saturday's front looks like it might stall somewhere over
southern pa so despite high pressure moving in from the lakes,
some additional showers possible into Sunday, especially over
the nepa counties.

Short wave drops in on Monday, activating the old front and
developing showers and storms further north. Larger high builds
in from behind the wave late Monday into Tuesday bringing drier
and cooler air.

Aviation 19z Wednesday through Monday
GenerallyVFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours. High
clouds are increasing from the west this afternoon and will
continue to gradually lower and thicken this evening. Overnight
expect a mid to high level clouds deck persisting, between about
5 to 15k ft agl. There could be a period of rain showers between
about 03z to 09z, moving from NW to SE across the region. At
this time thinking these will be mainly non restrictive; falling
from a 4-6k ft agl cloud base. With that said, cannot rule out
some localized, brief restrictions as these showers move
through... Also cannot rule out a rumble of thunder after
midnight as well. By daybreak expect mostly cloudy skies, with
lower cloud bases, mainly 2.5 - 5k ft agl... So perhaps some MVFR
cig restrictions. Next round of showers approaches the northern
terminals toward the very end of the TAF period, around 17-19z
Thursday. Watching for stronger, perhaps severe thunderstorms to
develop and potentially impact some of the terminals later
Thursday afternoon and evening.

Light and variable winds turn southeast 5 to 10kts this
afternoon and evening. South-southeast winds continuing
overnight, which could shift more southwesterly late Thursday
morning.

Outlook...

Thursday afternoon and evening... Brief restrictions possible in
showers or thunderstorms.

Friday...VFR.

Saturday... Restrictions possible in afternoon showers or
thunderstorms.

Sunday and Monday... MainlyVFR. A low chance of showers or
thunderstorms.

Bgm watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Mjm
near term... Mjm
short term... Dgm
long term... Dgm
aviation... Mjm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Binghamton, Binghamton Regional Airport, NY24 mi49 minVar 410.00 miFair66°F33°F29%1022.9 hPa

Wind History from BGM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN14
G23
N15
G21
N12
G20
N8NW4NW5NW4NW4NW6NW5NW5NW8W5NW5NW4CalmN3E5NE3CalmCalm4SE44
1 day agoN15
G25
N16N12
G19
NW13NW14
G27
NW14
G22
NW15
G22
W12
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NW11
G18
NW10NW13
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NW8NW9NW12
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G25
NW14
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NW16
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N16
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2 days agoSW12
G20
SW14
G20
SW14
G18
SW11
G22
SW10
G16
S12
G20
SW13
G25
SW9S11
G19
SW5SW7SW8SW8SW8SW9SW10SW9
G18
SW10
G17
SW10
G18
SW15
G20
SW9W12W14
G22
W17
G24

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Binghamton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.