Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Friendsville, PA
May 15, 2024 4:35 PM EDT (20:35 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:40 AM Sunset 8:19 PM Moonrise 11:34 AM Moonset 1:21 AM |
Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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FXUS61 KBGM 151903 AFDBGM
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 303 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024
SYNOPSIS
Rain showers come to an end this evening. Patchy fog is possible overnight and Thursday morning, especially in low lying areas.
Warmer conditions return Thursday with mostly dry conditions to finish out the work week, though afternoon scattered showers will be possible both Thursday and Friday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
300 PM Update...
Showers will continue to dissipate from south to north this afternoon and evening. Most will be dry during the overnight hours, though some stray showers will be possible in the Finger Lakes region. A low pressure system will spin off the coast, but it should be just far enough east to keep showers out of the region. Skies do scatter out some overnight and with moisture from recent rain showers, fog will be possible, especially in the lower elevations.
Conditions will be drier across NEPA and the Catskills, so fog is not expected there. Temperatures will be mild tonight, only falling into the 50s.
Fog lifts out early in the morning on Thursday. A ridge begins to build into the region and will bring mostly dry conditions. There will be a stationary front stretched across the region and the aforementioned coastal low nudges northward. These two features will support scattered showers, mainly in the late morning and afternoon hours. While models do show limited instability and very weak shear, there likely will not be enough of either to support thunderstorms, so thunder was removed from the forecast. Otherwise, skies will be partly cloudy over the majority of the region. Temperatures will climb into the upper 60s to mid 70s as warmer air moves into the region.
The frontal boundary drops south overnight and showers come to an end by the late evening hours as the ridge continues to build into the region. Conditions may become favorable for valley fog as skies will stay partly clear through most of the overnight hours.
Overnight lows will once again be in the 50s.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
215 PM Update...
A weak low pressure system pushing NE through the central Great Lakes will bring another chance for rain showers Friday. The kicker here is high pressure in the low and mid levels centered over Newfoundland is progged to push into the region from the NE. How strong and quick the high pressure moves in will determine how far east the rain showers are able to travel.
Current guidance is starting to show better agreement that the high will keep rain showers mostly west of I-81 on Friday, with the best chances over the Finger Lakes region. Temperatures will be in the low to mid 70s.
Friday night, showers may push farther east into the CWA as the low departs to the NNE, but they should be light and scattered.
Overnight lows will be in the 50s.
Saturday is trending drier on the latest GFS/EURO/CMC model runs as deep moisture saturation moves south with a cutoff low developing over the Tennessee and Ohio River valleys. Drier air works its way into the region Saturday morning, which should limit rain shower chances. Didn't want to make large wholesale changes to the PoPs for Saturday given guidance has only recently become better aligned. Used NBM PoPs as the base and reduced chances by 15-20% across the area. Hopefully this trend will continue and we will see a dry Saturday. Clouds will still be present with SE low level flow bringing Atlantic moisture into the region, keeping temperatures cool, climbing into the mid 60s across NEPA and upper 60s to mid 70s across CNY, with warmer temps in the Mohawk Valley.
The dry trend continues into Saturday night with a stronger ridge of high pressure building into the area from the surface to the upper levels. Temps will be in the low to mid 50s.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
245 PM Update...
The latest guidance suite is starting to give us some cohesion on the weather pattern for early next week after several previous runs of wildly different solutions. High pressure is progged to develop to the north of a cutoff low that will slowly sink to the SE through the Carolinas and into the Atlantic as the early week progresses. This setup puts the high over our region, keeping us mostly dry through the period. Again, given this agreement in models is new, didn't want to make drastic changes to the PoPs forecast for the period. Left some rain chances in on Sunday given the east and northward extent of the cutoff low could bring some rain showers on Sunday, and reduced PoPs below slight chance Monday into Tuesday morning given the dry air and high pressure over the region. The next chance for widespread showers and thunderstorms looks to be Wednesday or Thursday as a cold front moves into the region from the Great Lakes. Temperatures will be spring like, with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s.
AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Rain will clear out from south to north this afternoon and evening. However, restrictions will stick around through most of the afternoon. Occasional scattering of clouds may improve conditions briefly, but other than a short period of VFR at AVP tonight, restrictions will not lift out until Thursday morning.
Overnight, occasional breaks in the clouds combined with recent moisture from rain showers will likely lead to fog developing at all CNY terminals overnight. There is uncertainty on how low visibilities will drop and how quickly fog develops. Fog should clear out by around 13z, though MVFR ceilings may linger at some terminals.
Winds will be light throughout the overnight hours. Northeast winds Thursday will remain light though some stronger winds will be possible at BGM and AVP with speeds near 10 kts and peak gusts around 15 kts.
Outlook...
Thursday through Friday...Only a slight chance of showers; mainly VFR.
Friday night through Saturday...The next system enters the region with rain and associated restrictions.
Saturday night through Sunday...Decreasing chance of showers but restrictions still possible.
Monday...Mainly VFR; slight chance for showers.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 303 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024
SYNOPSIS
Rain showers come to an end this evening. Patchy fog is possible overnight and Thursday morning, especially in low lying areas.
Warmer conditions return Thursday with mostly dry conditions to finish out the work week, though afternoon scattered showers will be possible both Thursday and Friday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
300 PM Update...
Showers will continue to dissipate from south to north this afternoon and evening. Most will be dry during the overnight hours, though some stray showers will be possible in the Finger Lakes region. A low pressure system will spin off the coast, but it should be just far enough east to keep showers out of the region. Skies do scatter out some overnight and with moisture from recent rain showers, fog will be possible, especially in the lower elevations.
Conditions will be drier across NEPA and the Catskills, so fog is not expected there. Temperatures will be mild tonight, only falling into the 50s.
Fog lifts out early in the morning on Thursday. A ridge begins to build into the region and will bring mostly dry conditions. There will be a stationary front stretched across the region and the aforementioned coastal low nudges northward. These two features will support scattered showers, mainly in the late morning and afternoon hours. While models do show limited instability and very weak shear, there likely will not be enough of either to support thunderstorms, so thunder was removed from the forecast. Otherwise, skies will be partly cloudy over the majority of the region. Temperatures will climb into the upper 60s to mid 70s as warmer air moves into the region.
The frontal boundary drops south overnight and showers come to an end by the late evening hours as the ridge continues to build into the region. Conditions may become favorable for valley fog as skies will stay partly clear through most of the overnight hours.
Overnight lows will once again be in the 50s.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
215 PM Update...
A weak low pressure system pushing NE through the central Great Lakes will bring another chance for rain showers Friday. The kicker here is high pressure in the low and mid levels centered over Newfoundland is progged to push into the region from the NE. How strong and quick the high pressure moves in will determine how far east the rain showers are able to travel.
Current guidance is starting to show better agreement that the high will keep rain showers mostly west of I-81 on Friday, with the best chances over the Finger Lakes region. Temperatures will be in the low to mid 70s.
Friday night, showers may push farther east into the CWA as the low departs to the NNE, but they should be light and scattered.
Overnight lows will be in the 50s.
Saturday is trending drier on the latest GFS/EURO/CMC model runs as deep moisture saturation moves south with a cutoff low developing over the Tennessee and Ohio River valleys. Drier air works its way into the region Saturday morning, which should limit rain shower chances. Didn't want to make large wholesale changes to the PoPs for Saturday given guidance has only recently become better aligned. Used NBM PoPs as the base and reduced chances by 15-20% across the area. Hopefully this trend will continue and we will see a dry Saturday. Clouds will still be present with SE low level flow bringing Atlantic moisture into the region, keeping temperatures cool, climbing into the mid 60s across NEPA and upper 60s to mid 70s across CNY, with warmer temps in the Mohawk Valley.
The dry trend continues into Saturday night with a stronger ridge of high pressure building into the area from the surface to the upper levels. Temps will be in the low to mid 50s.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
245 PM Update...
The latest guidance suite is starting to give us some cohesion on the weather pattern for early next week after several previous runs of wildly different solutions. High pressure is progged to develop to the north of a cutoff low that will slowly sink to the SE through the Carolinas and into the Atlantic as the early week progresses. This setup puts the high over our region, keeping us mostly dry through the period. Again, given this agreement in models is new, didn't want to make drastic changes to the PoPs forecast for the period. Left some rain chances in on Sunday given the east and northward extent of the cutoff low could bring some rain showers on Sunday, and reduced PoPs below slight chance Monday into Tuesday morning given the dry air and high pressure over the region. The next chance for widespread showers and thunderstorms looks to be Wednesday or Thursday as a cold front moves into the region from the Great Lakes. Temperatures will be spring like, with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s.
AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Rain will clear out from south to north this afternoon and evening. However, restrictions will stick around through most of the afternoon. Occasional scattering of clouds may improve conditions briefly, but other than a short period of VFR at AVP tonight, restrictions will not lift out until Thursday morning.
Overnight, occasional breaks in the clouds combined with recent moisture from rain showers will likely lead to fog developing at all CNY terminals overnight. There is uncertainty on how low visibilities will drop and how quickly fog develops. Fog should clear out by around 13z, though MVFR ceilings may linger at some terminals.
Winds will be light throughout the overnight hours. Northeast winds Thursday will remain light though some stronger winds will be possible at BGM and AVP with speeds near 10 kts and peak gusts around 15 kts.
Outlook...
Thursday through Friday...Only a slight chance of showers; mainly VFR.
Friday night through Saturday...The next system enters the region with rain and associated restrictions.
Saturday night through Sunday...Decreasing chance of showers but restrictions still possible.
Monday...Mainly VFR; slight chance for showers.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KBGM GREATER BINGHAMTON/EDWIN A LINK FIELD,NY | 23 sm | 11 min | SE 09 | 10 sm | Overcast | 61°F | 55°F | 82% | 29.80 |
Binghamton, NY,
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