Sunrise 6:18 AM   Sunset 8:22 PM Moonrise 1:26 AM   Moonset 10:20 AM

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LEZ148 Geneva-on-the-lake To Conneaut Oh-conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 906 Pm Edt Mon Apr 29 2024
Overnight - South winds less than 10 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 foot or less. Tuesday - South winds 10 knots or less becoming west. Showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Tuesday night - Southwest winds 10 knots or less. Mostly cloudy in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Wednesday - Southwest winds 10 knots or less. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Thursday through Saturday.
the water temperature off toledo is 56 degrees, off cleveland 48 degrees, and off erie 51 degrees.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KCLE 300738 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 338 AM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

SYNOPSIS
A cold front will continue east across the local area today.
High pressure will build in behind this front for tonight into Wednesday. A trough will pass through the region on Wednesday night. A warm front will lift across the area on Thursday. A cold front will move through Friday into Saturday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A band of rain continues to slowly propagate eastward in a SSW to NNE orientation ahead of a cold front, as a mid-level vorticity maximum moves northeast across the region. Rain and perhaps some embedded thunder will move across the area this morning and have retained high PoPs with an additional up to one-quarter of an inch of rain expected. Rain will push east of the area during the afternoon as the surface front advances across the forecast area and have PoPs decreasing to dry. High pressure will build in quickly behind the front for tonight into Wednesday, as some upper level ridging builds across the Great Lakes region. This will continue to promote a dry forecast through the end of the near term period. Temperatures are cooler already from 24 hours ago and will fall slightly with the cold front, so high temperatures may occur earlier in the day for eastern sites. With the aggression of the high pressure coming back and the return flow across the region, temperatures could recover back into the low-to-mid 70s for Northwest and North Central Ohio. Clearing and high pressure across the region tonight will allow for lows in the lower 50s and perhaps upper 40s. Return flow on Wednesday will allow for warm temperatures into the upper 70s to lower 80s.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
An upper level ridge of high pressure will amplify over the Upper Ohio Valley and eastern Great Lakes region Wednesday night into Thursday. At the surface, a weak area of high pressure will stretch from the Great Lakes region into Mid-Atlantic on Thursday. High temperatures Thursday afternoon will continue to be above average for early May with upper 70s closer to the lakeshore and lower 80s inland. The low level surface winds will be relatively weak and variable on Thursday which will allow for a lake breeze to develop and drift inland from the lakeshore later Thursday afternoon and evening.

The surface high will move towards the Northeast Region of the CONUS by Friday. A southeast to southerly low level flow will return late Thursday night into Friday. An upper level trough will swing through the Upper Midwest into the western Great Lakes region on Friday. An area of low pressure will track through the Upper Great Lakes region Friday with a trailing weak cold front. This front will push through the area Friday afternoon and evening with scattered rain showers likely and embedded thunderstorms possible. The thermodynamics looks relatively weak for any organized convection. High temperatures will again be very warm ahead of the front Friday in the upper 70s to lower 80s. The weak front will slow down and perhaps stall out near the area Friday night keeping rain chances in the forecast through this time period.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
The forecast for this weekend has become a little more uncertain and not clear cut with the forecast guidance showing a weak front stalling out near by or just east of the area on Saturday. We have bumped up POPs for Saturday with the slow moving or stalled front in the region. High temperatures will be knocked down a little bit into the lower and middle 70s this weekend due to added cloud cover and rain chances. We will maintain scattered POPs for Sunday as well with the frontal boundary drifting a little further eastward from the area. We may be in between systems on Monday with a slight drier trend and lower rain chances. Another weak front and weather system may arrive by next Tuesday with slightly higher rain chances. Above average temperatures are expected to continue into early next week.

AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/
An area of rain with some localized embedded thunder continues in a slow SSW to NNE orientation across the airspace this morning. Rain will slowly propagate east across the terminals with rain just exiting KTOL and about to enter KMFD and KCLE.
Rain will progress through the late morning hours. Some lower ceilings will enter with the rain and some trend to MVFR is expected but it may be in and out of the terminals, but not worth getting cute over a prevailing vs. a TEMPO group. The MVFR ceilings should persist briefly behind the rain before lifting later in the afternoon. With the cold front out of the region, dry air will enter and skies will clear this evening and into tonight. Winds through the period will be generally light and will shift from the south to the west with the frontal passage.

Outlook...Non-VFR may return in showers and thunderstorms Thursday night through Saturday.

MARINE
Weather conditions regarding winds and waves on the lake look relatively quiet for the rest of this week into the weekend. West to southwest 5 to 12 knots are expected behind a weakening cold front today. Southwest winds at 5 to 10 knots are expected tonight and Wednesday with high pressure building over the lake. Light and variable winds are expected Wednesday night underneath the surface high pressure. Winds will shift from the East at 8 to 12 knots Thursday briefly before a warm front lifts across the lake Thursday night. Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots return Friday. A weak cold front will push across the lake Friday night into early Saturday.
Variable winds will remain around 10 knots or less into the weekend.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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