Wednesday, May22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ashtabula, OH

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:55AMSunset 8:44PM Wednesday May 22, 2019 9:09 PM EDT (01:09 UTC) Moonrise 11:27PMMoonset 8:03AM Illumination 84% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ148 Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Geneva-on-the-lake To Conneaut Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 332 Pm Edt Wed May 22 2019
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south. Scattered showers with isolated Thunderstorms this evening. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Thursday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 5 to 15 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..Northwest winds 10 knots or less becoming west. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Saturday through Monday. The water temperature off toledo is 60 degrees, off cleveland 54 degrees and off erie 54 degrees.
LEZ148 Expires:201905230215;;289257 FZUS51 KCLE 221932 NSHCLE Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland OH 332 PM EDT Wed May 22 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ148-149-230215-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ashtabula, OH
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location: 41.88, -80.8     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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Fxus61 kcle 230008
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
808 pm edt Wed may 22 2019

Synopsis
A warm front extending from low pressure over minnesota will
lift north across the area over the course of this evening and
tonight. As low pressure continues northeast across the upper
great lakes on Thursday, a cold front will settle south across
the area. This boundary will lift back north on Saturday as a
warm front then stall overhead on Sunday.

Near term through Thursday night
Short term models indicated a line of showers would develop from
cleveland southwest to mansfield to dayton. This has in fact
happened and they continue to move east across the eastern
portions of the forecast area at this time. There is still the
possibility for a few thunderstorms in the southeast portion of
the forecast area this evening as temperatures climbed into the
lower 80s in this area. Earlier forecast had a mention of a
slight chance for a shower in the west but for only a couple
hours. So chance across that area is very minimal at best.

Only some minor changes to hourly temperatures at this point
with this update.

Previous discussion...

plume of moisture continues to stream northward into ohio this
afternoon in advance of a warm front moving into central oh.

Scattered showers continue to break out and, up to this point,
have been without thunder. Closer to the warm front marginal
mucape exists and expect scattered thunderstorms to be possible
east of i-71 this evening as a narrow nose of instability works
into eastern oh with the shear to loosely organize storms. Mid
level lapse rates continue to remain poor. After about 10 or 11
pm, the remainder of the tonight forecast is dry, but we will
be looking upstream as convection nears northwest oh Thursday
morning. Latest trends is for this initial convection to arrive
earlier, but be able to retain modest strength. Low level jet
will carry this into the area and have likely pops march across
the area during the morning hours. Lapse rates are better and
will have a narrow corridor of MLCAPE and shear to maintain the
convection across. If indeed this is the case, pops would need
to be raised. But cold front is still off to the northwest and
will not cross until later in the afternoon so some
redevelopment is likely with at least scattered coverage. Areas
along east remain in the SPC slight risk. Partially clearing and
drying out faster too Thursday night with high pressure
shifting across the central great lakes. Temperatures will be
mild tonight in the warm sector with the southerly flow. Warm
again Thursday, although it may be a slow start with precip to
start. Lows in the lower mid 50s Thursday night in the wake of
the cold front.

Short term Friday through Saturday night
Friday begins with high pressure across the area, extending in
from the north. To our west and southwest, a warm front will be
near a chicago to cincinnati line. As the front moves ene into
the area Friday night, the NAM shows capes rise to over 1000
j kg in the warm sector but much of this is elevated and the air
aloft will be fairly dry so for now will have Friday dry and
Friday night mainly slight chance with a low chance pop north.

Saturday capes again rise to 1500-2000 j kg with afternoon
heating. Models also show a cold front advancing into the area
from the north. The day should start dry for most but in the
afternoon will boost pops to likely much of the area. Models
hinting on the cold front stalling out dissipating somewhere in
the area Saturday night although for now will taper pops into
the low chance slight chance category. Sunday will continue with
chance likely pops with the weak front in the area. Highs
Friday mostly 70s. Highs Saturday 80 to 85. Sunday highs 75 to
80.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
Monday the weak cold front from Sunday will track back north as
a warm front ahead of low pressure moving into the western
lakes. No real forcing otherwise so will just have chance pops
for the day for afternoon evening convection. Monday night will
drop to slight chance as the low moves northeast through the
western and central lakes. Seems any forcing would be well away
from the area. Tuesday the GFS shows stability rather low with
afternoon li's around -7c and what looks like a prefrontal
trough in advance of the warm front tracking across the area in
the afternoon. For now will have chance pops. The cold front
associated with the low will move through on Wednesday. Will
continue with chance pops for the balance of the forecast.

Aviation 00z Thursday through Monday
A line of showers continues to move east and out of the area at
this time. Mid and high clouds will follow the line overnight.

Expecting another line of showers and thunderstorms to move into
the western portions of the forecast area around 12z in the
morning and then advance east of the area by around 15z. Some
of the thunderstorms could produce some gusty winds and possibly
some hail tomorrow morning. Winds will increase after the
showers and thunderstorms move through the area with some
locations seeing brisk winds of 20 to 30 knots.

Outlook... Non-vfr possible Saturday night through Monday.

Marine
Have dropped the lakeshore flood warning as easterly flow has
weakened. Low pressure moves through the northern and central
lakes overnight forcing a warm front northeast across the lake.

A cold front will follow from the northwest on Thursday.

Guidance has winds increasing to around 15 to 20 knots on the
central and eastern basin. Highest waves are expected to remain
out of the nearshore waters but it will get close to small craft
conditions. For now will not issue a headline but one may be
needed. Winds turn northwest but diminish behind the cold front
Thursday night. Light wind will continue through Friday night.

Saturday southerly flow will increase to around 15 knots behind
another warm front and in advance of the next cold front. Winds
will diminish and turn northwest on Saturday night. Winds will
remain light through the balance of the forecast.

Cle watches warnings advisories
Oh... None.

Pa... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Oudeman
near term... Lombardy oudeman
short term... Tk
long term... Tk
aviation... Lombardy
marine... Tk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FAIO1 - 9063053 - Fairport, OH 27 mi52 min ESE 6 G 7 63°F 61°F1017.1 hPa57°F
EREP1 42 mi52 min WNW 1.9 G 2.9
45132 - Port Stanley 46 mi70 min E 7.8 G 9.7 51°F 47°F2 ft1016.8 hPa (+0.1)
45164 48 mi70 min 52°F2 ft

Wind History for Fairport, OH
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G19
NW13
G17

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ashtabula - Northeast Ohio Regional Airport, OH9 mi77 minVar 57.00 miLight Rain69°F55°F63%1017.7 hPa

Wind History from HZY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmE4E5CalmE5E5SE7SE10SE11SE13SE10SE14
G20
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SE5S6SE8SE10S85Calm
1 day agoNW6N64N6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3NW4CalmNW63NW4NE54N6NE733NE3Calm
2 days agoS9S6S10SW12
G22
S9SW8SW8SW6S5S6SW9W10W17
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G30
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W8NW7NW7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.