Friday, February22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sharon, CT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:36AMSunset 5:35PM Friday February 22, 2019 11:50 AM EST (16:50 UTC) Moonrise 10:26PMMoonset 9:42AM Illumination 89% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 919 Am Est Fri Feb 22 2019
Today..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tonight..N winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat..E winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft after midnight. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. Rain, mainly in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun night..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Mon..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Tue..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less.
Tue night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 919 Am Est Fri Feb 22 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure builds from the great lakes through Saturday, then shifts east of new england Saturday night. A frontal system associated with strong low pressure tracking through the great lakes and southeast canada will impact the waters Saturday night and Sunday. High pressure then begins to build back into the area for Monday and Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sharon, CT
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location: 41.89, -73.41     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 221419
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
919 am est Fri feb 22 2019

Synopsis
Milder and dry weather will continue through the first part of
the weekend as high pressure builds into the region. A low
pressure system will track out of the central u.S. On Saturday,
bringing mixed precipitation to our area Saturday night before
changing to rain Sunday. Once the system departs, very strong
gusty winds are expected Sunday night and Monday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 910 am est, stratus cloud deck remains in place across the
region with some clearing working its way south. This may allow
for some peaks of Sun today with high temperatures in the 30s to
low 40s. That being said, just did a quick refresh of the hourly
temps. Further details regarding the near term forecast
follow...

satellite trends show the lake effect clouds anchored over our
region and not showing any signs of breaking up yet. One little
hole in the clouds around the capital district and central
mohawk valley is in the process of moving southeast and
gradually closing up. High clouds still streaming over southern
areas. Northwest winds are still gusty and as high pressure
centered in the central northern plains builds into our region
through the day, winds will ease and deeper subsidence should
help the clouds to begin to break up during the afternoon. Lake
effect snow flurry shower activity will dissipate through this
morning. Highs this afternoon in the lower to mid 40s as long as
we do get the breaks in the clouds in the afternoon. Expecting
30s in higher terrain and around 30 to lower 30s northern areas.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Sunday night
Clouds continue to break up through this evening and night and
winds trend to calm. Lows in the teens to around 20. High clouds
spread across our region through the day Saturday and boundary
layer warm advection strengthens. Surface winds will be light
but even with the clouds increasing, temperatures should get
solidly into the 40s but upper 30s in higher terrain.

Strong warm advection, moisture advection, low level forcing and
isentropic lift move into our region Saturday night but some low
level dry air and some ageostrophic flow from the exiting low
level ridging will result in some cooling of surface
temperatures as precipitation increases in coverage and
intensity. Temperatures will fall to around or just above
freezing from the capital region south through the mid
hudson valley and below freezing in many other areas.

Precipitation begins as snow in colder areas and rain and snow
in the hudson valley.

Precipitation transitions to sleet and freezing rain for a
period in colder areas then just a cold rain around or just
after daybreak in most areas with slow warming between the
surface and boundary layer through the night. Some light snow
and ice accumulations are possible Saturday night through early
Sunday morning.

During the day Sunday, a closed upper low tracks just north of
the u.S. Canada border and surface low pressure will rapidly
deepen proximate to the upper low. Any rain Sunday morning, or
mix in parts of the southern adirondacks, will become showers
Sunday afternoon, and eventually snow showers as temperatures
cool late Sunday afternoon and night.

There has been a multi-day consistency in guidance ensembles for
unusually strong west to northwest winds with the departure of
the system Sunday night and Monday. There could be some lake
effect snows into the southern adirondacks and western mohawk
valley but more importantly, winds could gust at or above 45 mph
much of Sunday night and Monday over the entire forecast area.

Wind headlines will likely be needed once details are sorted out
about where advisory and possibly warning level winds are
expected. Highs Sunday in the 40s but near 50 possible in the
hudson valley from the capital region and lower 50s mid hudson
valley. Lows Sunday night in the 20s to near 30 but upper teens
northern areas.

Long term Monday through Thursday
The long term forecast period will begin with the deep low pressure
system tracking from southern quebec into the canadian maritimes. A
strong pressure gradient and pressure fall rise couplet suggest the
potential for strong winds across much of the region Monday and
possibly lingering into Monday evening, with areas from the mohawk
valley capital region and berkshires northward more likely to
experience the strongest winds, which could gust to 45-55 mph. Wind
advisories and or high wind warnings will likely be needed for
portions of the region during this time.

In addition, with strong flow off lake ontario into northern
herkimer hamilton counties, lake enhanced snow may bring moderate to
locally heavy accumulations, especially near and north of route 28.

Additional winter weather headlines for lake effect snow may be
needed. Highs Monday ranging from the mid 20s across the sw
adirondacks, to the lower mid 30s in most valley areas, except
closer to 40 within the mid hudson valley and lower elevations in nw
ct. Lows Monday night mainly in the single digits and teens.

High pressure should build across the region Tuesday with lighter
winds but cold temperatures, with highs only in the teens and 20s.

Tuesday night lows should fall into the single digits and teens with
increasing clouds.

A fast moving impulse will quickly track from the pacific NW into
the great lakes late Tuesday into Tuesday night, then toward the
northern mid atlantic coast on Wednesday. There remains uncertainty
regarding the track and intensity of any associated surface low,
with the 00z 22 ECMWF weakest and displaced farther south across the
southern mid atlantic, while the gem GFS and GEFS mean suggest a
track closer to the i-80 corridor, or even further north. Given the
displacement of colder air remaining across SE canada, a track
farther south, i-80 or southward, makes sense. If this system tracks
far enough north, a period of snow will be possible late Tuesday
night through Wednesday, especially across central and southern
areas (from the mohawk valley southern vt areas south and east) with
light to moderate accumulations possible. It will remain cold, with
highs Wednesday in the teens and 20s, although if widespread snow
falls through the day, even colder MAX temps could occur, with only
single digits and teens possible across central and northern areas.

Lows Wednesday night mainly in the single digits above and below
zero, although if fresh snow is on the ground, some temps could fall
well below zero.

By Thursday, any lingering clouds snow showers should taper off with
clearing by afternoon. Remaining chilly with highs in the 20s to
lower 30s.

Aviation 14z Friday through Tuesday
As of 615 am est, a fairly solid deck of bkn-ovc stratocu
clouds remains in place from around kalb kpsf northward to kgfl,
although there were some breaks developing along the southern
edge closer to kalb. Mainly high clouds persist at kpou.

The lower clouds should remain in place through this morning
outside of occasional breaks, so will mention CIGS in 3500-4500
ft agl range where clouds are in place and are expected to
remain with at least bkn coverage through much of the morning.

These lower clouds are expected to gradually erode from south to
north this afternoon. The high level clouds will persist at
kpou, but the stratocu should remain mainly north.

Otherwise, mainlyVFR conditions are expected to prevail
through the 24 hour TAF period ending 12z Saturday. Will have to
watch for shallow patchy ground (freezing) fog which could
develop at kgfl and kalb toward 12z sat, and result in MVFR ifr
vsbys. At this time, overall probability too low to include
mention in tafs but future trends will need to be watched.

Winds will be west-northwest around 5-10 kt, with gusts of
15-20 kt at kalb kpsf through this morning. Winds will become
light variable to calm around and after sunset.

Outlook...

Saturday night: high operational impact. Definite ra... Sn.

Sunday: high operational impact. Breezy definite ra.

Sunday night: high operational impact. Very windy with gusts to 41.0 chance of shra... Shsn.

Monday: high operational impact. Very windy with gusts to 43.0 slight chance of shsn.

Monday night: moderate operational impact. Windy with gusts to 34.0 no sig wx.

Tuesday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Tuesday night: low operational impact. Slight chance of shsn... Sn.

Wednesday: moderate operational impact. Chance of sn.

Hydrology
Hydrological impacts are not expected through at least Saturday.

Another period of wintry precipitation is expected Saturday
night before changing to all rain on Sunday. Rainfall is
expected to continue through the day Sunday, with total qpf
amounts generally between half of an inch up to an inch. This
rainfall, combined with warmer temperatures, will promote
snowmelt and some minor rises on area rivers. The latest mmefs
doesn't show any flooding at this time but will continue to
monitor as we move closer to the event.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service AHPS graphs
on our website.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Ma... None.

Vt... None.

Synopsis... Nas
near term... Nas jlv
short term... Nas
long term... Kl
aviation... Kl jpv
hydrology... Nas


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 28 mi80 min SW 1 37°F 1029 hPa22°F
TKPN6 29 mi50 min N 7 G 8.9 37°F 1029.5 hPa (+2.5)24°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 50 mi50 min N 20 G 22 38°F 38°F1027.8 hPa (+1.5)
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 51 mi56 min N 4.1 G 11 40°F 36°F1027.6 hPa

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Poughkeepsie, Dutchess County Airport, NY30 mi57 minNNE 810.00 miMostly Cloudy37°F23°F57%1028.2 hPa

Wind History from POU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW7SW6W14
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1 day agoCalmCalmS4S4CalmE3CalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmN3NW3NW4W3CalmCalmCalmS4SW4SW5SW6
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmNW5NW4N6N5N5N3N3N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Hyde Park, Hudson River, New York
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Hyde Park
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Fri -- 03:00 AM EST     3.77 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:41 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:43 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 09:25 AM EST     -0.71 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:19 PM EST     3.74 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:37 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 09:28 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 09:53 PM EST     -0.71 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.82.93.53.83.52.81.70.7-0.1-0.7-0.60.31.62.73.43.73.63.12.11.10.2-0.5-0.7-0.2

Tide / Current Tables for Tivoli, Hudson River, New York
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Tivoli
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Fri -- 03:50 AM EST     4.63 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:42 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:43 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 10:17 AM EST     -0.90 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:09 PM EST     4.60 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:36 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 09:28 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 10:45 PM EST     -0.90 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.92.53.74.44.64.23.21.90.7-0.3-0.9-0.60.62.13.44.24.64.43.62.41.10.1-0.7-0.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.