Monday, August20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sharon, CT

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Sunrise 6:05AMSunset 7:46PM Monday August 20, 2018 11:03 AM EDT (15:03 UTC) Moonrise 3:57PMMoonset 12:58AM Illumination 67% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1000 Am Edt Mon Aug 20 2018
Today..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E 10 to 15 kt late this morning and afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Slight chance of light rain and drizzle late this morning and afternoon.
Tonight..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Tue..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Tue night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Showers likely with chance of tstms.
Wed..SW winds around 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu night..NW winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..N winds around 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..S winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 1000 Am Edt Mon Aug 20 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure from the canadian maritimes will move slowly farther northeast through early Tuesday. A warm front will be approaching the region on Tuesday and moving across Tuesday night. A cold front will then move across on Wednesday, followed by high pressure to close the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sharon, CT
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location: 41.89, -73.41     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 201412
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
1012 am edt Mon aug 20 2018

Synopsis
High pressure near northern new england and nova
scotia will bring mainly fair and dry weather today. The surface
high will shift slowly east of the region tonight, as a low pressure
system approaches from the western great lakes region. A warm front
will bring showers with a chance of thunderstorms late Tuesday
afternoon into Wednesday morning. The cold front to the system will
move through on Wednesday with a chance of showers and breezy
conditions, as fair weather returns for the second half of the week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Some clusters of clouds around the berkshires, eastern catskills
and helderbergs as a small upper impulse exits our region and
another very small upper impulse approaches from the great
lakes, seen in satellite water vapor imagery. Other clouds in
new england are developing toward NW ct and by this afternoon,
there could be an isolated shower in NW ct and maybe around the
kpou area but just isolated and light.

Area 12z soundings show mixing potential will help temperatures
reach right around current forecast values. So, just some minor
adjustments to temperatures and sky cover through this
afternoon. Previous afd has a few more details and is below...

there are some indications from the hires cams, such as the
3-km nam, and 3-km hrrr, as well as the GFS and nam12 that a few
showers could pop-up over the southeast extreme of the forecast
area such as the mid-hudson valley and litchfield co ct. This
would be due to the return flow from the sfc high interacting
with any long island sound breezes. The showers would be short-
lived and tied to the diurnal heating.

Humidity levels will remain comfortable with sfc dewpts in the
50s to lower 60s. High temps will be seasonable, and we leaned
closer to the ec MOS values with upper 70s to around 80f in the
valley areas, and upper 60s to mid 70s over the hills and mtns.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Wednesday
Tonight... Any diurnally driven showers should diminish quickly
this evening. It will be variable cloudy again, as the sfc
anticyclone will slowly retreat east of maine. A warm front
will be slowly be approaching from the oh valley and mid
atlantic region associated with a deepening and intensifying sfc
cyclone moving into the upper ms river valley and midwest. The
return flow from the sfc high will allow for some low stratus to
form and start creeping up the hudson river valley, and
southern new england. Some patchy radiational fog is also
possible before from the capital region north and east. Lows
will generally be in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

Tuesday... The low stratus will gradually burn off, as mid and
high clouds will quickly overspread the region, ahead of the
approaching warm front. The sfc high continues to weaken, as
low-level moisture begins to spread in from the west. The latest
guidance shows some warm advection showers getting into
locations mainly west of the hudson river valley in the late
morning into the early afternoon. Clouds will tend to thicken
and lower further east during the afternoon. We kept the higher
pops west of the hudson river valley during the day, and went
slight or low chance further east, as the better low-level jet
and stronger isentropic lift looks like it will be at night
along and ahead of the warm front. We leaned closer to the
cooler met MOS temps with highs mid 60s to around 70f over the
mtns, and lower to mid 70s elsewhere.

Tue night into Wednesday... The isentropic lift increases ahead
of the warm front to the anomalously strong cyclone passing
through the central and eastern great lakes region. The latest
gefs indicates strong h850 +v-component wind anomalies of +3 to
4 std devs above normal with the llj. These strong southerlies
will help transport in gulf moisture with pwats getting to 1-2+
std devs above normal. Strong moisture advection occurs with
some elevated instability moving in over the region. The latest
3-km NAM shows some convective elements or bands. Some heavier
bursts of rain area possible. Based on the track of the cyclone
west of the region. The better upper dynamics and QG lift will
likely be north and west of the capital region. Some rain
tallies of 1-2" possible in the western mohawk valley into the
western adirondacks. It will be breezy and humid Tue night with
lows in the 60s (possibly a few 70f readings). The strong
cyclone moves into south-central quebec. A cold front moves
through in the morning, and then a secondary boundary during the
afternoon. Instability looks limited in the afternoon, as we
kept a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning, and a
slight chc to chc of showers in the afternoon. It will become
breezy with the rapid mslp rises coming in the wake of the wave
and front. West to northwest winds of 10-20 mph with some gusts
to 30 to 40 mph will be possible due to momentum transfer 2.5-4
kft agl and channeling down the mohawk valley. Highs will be
mainly in the 70s, with some lower 80s south of alb, and a few
upper 60s over the southern adirondacks.

Long term Wednesday night through Sunday
The period starts out Wednesday night with a cold front well to our
east moving off the new england coast, with cold dry air advection
across our region. It will remain somewhat breezy into the night,
but not as gusty as during the daytime. Temperatures will cool to
slightly below normal levels on Thursday, as the upper level trough
axis moves over the area. With pwats dropping to anomalously low
values of -1 to -2 stdev, there will likely not be enough moisture
to result in any showers despite the upper trough passage.

Thursday night, high pressure at the surface and aloft will build
into the region providing mainly clear skies and cool overnight
temperatures as the anomalously dry air mass remains in place. With
temperatures aloft expected to warm under the ridge along with
abundant sunshine, surface temperatures should get back to normal
levels on Friday with continued comfortable humidity.

Model guidance indicating upper level ridging persisting Friday
night into Saturday, with continued rain-free conditions and warming
temperatures. The next chance of showers looks to be on Sunday, as
the upper ridge axis shifts eastward off the coast and a possible
short wave trough approaches from the great lakes. The strong ridge
may weaken what short wave energy tries to move in from the west
though, which is especially indicated by the ecmwf. So will continue
to only mention slight chance pops at this time. Temperatures will
likely remain above normal through next weekend.

Aviation 14z Monday through Friday
Surface high pressure will remain in place over the canadian
maritimes, with ridging extending southward through the
northeast conus. This high will provide dry conditions, although
a weak upper level disturbance will bring periods of mid level
clouds, especially from kpsf to kpou. CIGS in MVFR range early
this morning will rise toVFR by late morning. Fog at kgfl is
expected to dissipate by 13z.

Vfr conditions will then prevail through the day and into the
evening, again with periods of mid level clouds drifting
through. As the low-level flow becomes more southeasterly late
tonight, low stratus clouds are expected to envelope the
terminals. CIGS mainly in MVFR range are forecast, although ifr
will be possible at higher elevation site kpsf.

Winds will be light and variable overnight into the morning
hours, becoming northeast to east around 4-6 kt by this
afternoon. Winds will be southeast less than 5 kt tonight.

Outlook...

Tuesday night: high operational impact. Definite shra... Tsra.

Wednesday: high operational impact. Breezy likely shra... Tsra.

Wednesday night to Friday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Fire weather
High pressure near northern new england and nova
scotia will bring mainly fair and dry weather today. The surface
high will shift slowly east of the region tonight, as a low pressure
system approaches from the western great lakes region. A warm front
will bring showers with a chance of thunderstorms late Tuesday
afternoon into Wednesday morning. The cold front to the system will
move through on Wednesday with high pressure building back in
Thursday into Friday.

The rh values lower to 45 to 60 percent this afternoon, and have
an excellent recovery to 85 to 100 percent tonight. The rh
values will only lower to 55 to 80 percent Tuesday afternoon.

The winds will be variable in direction at 10 mph or less today,
and become light to calm tonight. The winds will increase from
the south to southeast at 10 to 15 mph on Tuesday.

The next chance of a widespread wetting rain will be Tuesday
night through Wednesday morning.

Hydrology
Mainly dry weather is expected through Tuesday morning for the
albany hydro service area. River levels will continue to
recede back to seasonal levels.

Showers and scattered thunderstorms will increase
Tuesday afternoon into early Wednesday ahead of a strong low
pressure system and its warm and cold front.

Total QPF ranges from a quarter of an inch to an inch from the
system with some locally higher amounts up to two inches in the
western adirondacks and catskills.

Within bank river rises are expected, no widespread problems
are anticipated. Dry weather returns Thursday into the weekend.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service AHPS graphs
on our website.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Ma... None.

Vt... None.

Synopsis... Wasula
near term... Nas wasula
short term... Wasula
long term... Jpv
aviation... Jpv
fire weather... Wasula
hydrology... Wasula


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 28 mi34 min 70°F 1021 hPa62°F
TKPN6 29 mi40 min N 9.9 G 14 72°F 76°F62°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 50 mi34 min NE 8 G 14 71°F 78°F1020.8 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 51 mi40 min NE 7 G 14 71°F 75°F1020.3 hPa

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Poughkeepsie, Dutchess County Airport, NY30 mi71 minVar 610.00 miA Few Clouds72°F61°F68%1020.3 hPa

Wind History from POU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE9NE11E6N7NE7E5NE5NE4NE4NE4E4NE3CalmN3N3N3N3N5CalmN5N6N36--
1 day agoSW75SW10
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N7N6N5N8N3N6N7N5N5N5N5N6N5N6N6N5N4NE8N8NE7
2 days agoSW3S35S8SE3SE454S5S5W14
G20
--CalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmS3SW3SW4SW8SW7S5

Tide / Current Tables for Tivoli, Hudson River, New York
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Tivoli
Click for MapNote: Values for the Hudson River above the George Washington bridge are based upon averages for the six months May to October

Mon -- 12:59 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 04:38 AM EDT     0.76 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:08 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:13 AM EDT     3.51 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:59 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:47 PM EDT     0.81 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:48 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:42 PM EDT     4.17 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.22.621.40.90.81.322.73.23.53.42.92.31.91.410.81.32.12.93.64.14.1

Tide / Current Tables for Hyde Park, Hudson River, New York
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Hyde Park
Click for MapNote: Values for the Hudson River above the George Washington bridge are based upon averages for the six months May to October

Mon -- 01:00 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 03:46 AM EDT     0.60 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:09 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:23 AM EDT     2.86 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:55 PM EDT     0.64 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:58 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:48 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:52 PM EDT     3.39 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.21.71.20.70.611.52.12.62.82.82.521.61.20.80.60.91.62.32.93.33.43.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.