Friday, June22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Elmhurst, IL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:15AMSunset 8:32PM Friday June 22, 2018 9:51 PM CDT (02:51 UTC) Moonrise 3:15PMMoonset 2:08AM Illumination 73% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ741 Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor- 908 Pm Cdt Fri Jun 22 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until 4 am cdt Saturday...
Rest of tonight..North winds 15 to 20 kt diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Patchy fog. Chance of showers. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft subsiding to 3 to 5 ft late.
Saturday..North winds 10 to 15 kt. Patchy fog in the morning. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft in the afternoon.
Saturday night..North winds 5 to 10 kt becoming northwest after midnight. Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Sunday..North winds 10 to 15 kt. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
LMZ741 Expires:201806231100;;962305 FZUS53 KLOT 230208 NSHLOT NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 908 PM CDT Fri Jun 22 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the average height of the highest 10 percent of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. LMZ740>742-231100-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elmhurst, IL
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location: 41.89, -87.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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Fxus63 klot 230208
afdlot
area forecast discussion
national weather service chicago romeoville, il
908 pm cdt Fri jun 22 2018

Update
908 pm cdt
only a few minor tweaks to going forecast this evening, mainly to
add some fog across the southeast after midnight, and to lower
temps slightly north suburbs and along the lake.

Evening GOES vapor imagery indicates our upper level low centered
over central indiana, with a northeasterly drift. While a few
isolated to scattered lighter showers continue affect the forecast
area, most of the stronger convective showers were focused near
and ahead of the low center to our southeast. Coverage of showers
should continue to slowly diminish overnight as the low begins to
accelerate off to the east-northeast. As indicated above, have
added or increased fog mention across the southern CWA after
midnight tonight, with much of the high-res model guidance
developing lower visibilities there mid-60's dew points and
lighter winds will linger.

Of course, most area rivers will continue to rise after heavy
rains of the past few days. Evening river stage forecast updates
are in progress at this time. Updated digital text forecast
products already available.

Ratzer

Short term
221 pm cdt
through Saturday...

a stacked low pressure system will continue to pinwheel south of
the CWA through tonight. As of 19z, the surface low center was
located near danville, with the mid-level low displaced just one
county south per satellite imagery. A concentrated area of
convection on the NW side of the low is expected to continue into
the early evening primarily south and east of a line from southern
livingston county to kankakee to michigan city, in. Some concern
for flooding remains across far southern portions of the CWA given
pwat values still over 1.5 inches in conjunction with the slow-
moving convection near the pivot point of the low. Also, a non-
zero brief and weak tornado chance remains across iroquois county
and NW indiana south of the kankakee river. A recent report of a
funnel cloud near watseka indicates this environment remains
favorable for a very brief and weak spin-up.

Otherwise through tonight, isolated to scattered showers across
the remainder of the CWA should gradually end as upper forcing
drifts east of the area. Though thick cloud cover will remain
across the area, the combination of weak lift, abundant low-level
moisture, and even minor cooling may support some reduced
visibilities overnight. Anticipation is for an environment more
favorable for haze (e.G. 3-5mi visibility) rather than fog, but
would not be surprised to see some patchy fog develop by daybreak
Saturday. Additionally, along the immediate lakeshore, some fog
over lake michigan may shift onshore at any point through the
night.

Saturday: after starting the day with a fairly substantial low-level
stratus deck, expectations are for clouds to lift into a broken
cumulus deck by the afternoon. Though deep-layer forcing will have
shifted east of the area, a weak low-level trough lingering sw
into northern il will keep fairly minor forcing present across
primarily the SE half of the CWA into the afternoon. With
sufficient low-level moisture present, convective cloud depths
within the cumulus field of around 3kft may be enough to generate
a few light showers or sprinkles during the mid to late afternoon.

The focus for this activity will be across NW indiana and east-
central illinois, wrapping NW along the lake michigan lake breeze
into the chicago metro generally along and west of i-294. Have
introduced a slight chance of showers during the afternoon for
this area. Farther north and west, dry air advecting into the
region aloft should entrain into the boundary layer and limit
cloud depth coverage.

Kluber

Long term
318 pm cdt
Saturday night through Friday...

Saturday night through Monday: any isolated diurnal showers across
the SE half of the CWA as noted in the short term discussion should
quickly diminish during the early evening. Upper ridging will then
edge across the area through Sunday night. Guidance has continued to
back-off on precip chances Sunday as the ridge suppresses the
influence of a trough shifting SE across the eastern great lakes.

Though no precip is anticipated at this time, any convectively
enhanced vort MAX rounding the building ridge would have the
potential to sneak a couple storms into the western CWA during the
afternoon.

Monday through Tuesday: pronounced troughing across the central
great plains will gradually shift eastward across the area during
this time, bringing periodic chances of showers and storms Monday
night through Tuesday night. WAA should support some elevated
convection spreading northward across the area Monday night.

Convective trends on Tuesday will then hinge heavily on how the
early morning convection evolves and if any nocturnal MCS activity
muddles the atmosphere across the area. There is a conditional
threat for severe convection if minimal contamination of the ambient
atmosphere by prior convection across the mid-mississippi valley
Tuesday afternoon and evening. This period will need to be monitored
into early next week.

Wednesday through Friday: precip should quickly exit to the east by
Wednesday morning. A slightly zonal mid-level flow will set-up across
the region through Thursday, then begin to break down on Friday as
troughing develops across the western conus. This may allow a weak
trough embedded in the large-scale flow to bring precip chances to
the area Thursday night into Friday. Otherwise, the area will find
itself on the northern extent of a building heat dome across the
central conus. With heavy recent rainfall, this warm and humid
airmass may build into the area by next weekend.

Kluber

Aviation
For the 00z tafs...

upper low continues to spin over the region resulting in mainly
light rain and drizzle at times for the terminals. Convergence at
925mb will continue to result in some spotty precip over the next
few hours, but expect precip to wind down late this evening as the
low continues to shift east away from the area and winds aloft
back to the north. Earlier model runs were suggesting that ifr
ceilings would return to the terminals overnight, but have trended
higher suggesting primarily MVFR ceilings instead. Fog will be a
concern overnight as we remain in high humidity air.

Through the day Saturday should maintain some type of northerly
wind direction. Some models are suggesting an afternoon lake
breeze, and went with that scenario in the tafs showing slightly
backed wind early becoming northeast in the afternoon. Skies
should scatter out, though there is low confidence on when this
would occur. Erring on the slower side of guidance for the latest
forecast.

Bmd

Marine
318 pm cdt
an upper-level low pressure over west-central indiana will drift to
the eastern great lakes tonight through Saturday night. Expect a
persistent period of 15-25 knot N to NE winds through Sunday. High
pressure will then build across the great lakes region Sunday night
into Monday night, bringing a period of generally NE winds to 20
knots. A low pressure trough approaching the from the west on
Tuesday will then support S to SE winds to 25 knots late Monday
night through Tuesday night. Periods of thunderstorms will accompany
the trough during this time.

Kluber

Lot watches warnings advisories
Il... Beach hazards statement... Ilz006-ilz014 until 4 am Saturday.

In... Beach hazards statement... Inz001 until 4 am Saturday.

Lm... Small craft advisory... Nearshore waters
until 4 am Saturday.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OKSI2 17 mi111 min N 6 G 12 61°F
45177 17 mi171 min 64°F1 ft
FSTI2 17 mi111 min NNW 19 60°F
CNII2 18 mi36 min NNW 8.9 G 15 61°F 57°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 20 mi51 min N 17 G 19 59°F 58°F
JAKI2 21 mi111 min N 9.9 G 18 61°F
45174 23 mi31 min N 14 G 18 58°F 58°F4 ft58°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 24 mi51 min NNW 9.9 G 12 60°F 1006.3 hPa (+0.0)60°F
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 33 mi71 min NNW 5.1 G 7 61°F
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 45 mi71 min NNE 11 G 13 63°F 1006.4 hPa
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 49 mi51 min NNW 8 G 9.9 60°F 1007.5 hPa (-0.6)

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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N7
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G17
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago, Chicago-O'Hare International Airport, IL7 mi60 minN 118.00 miOvercast62°F59°F90%1006.7 hPa
Chicago, Chicago Midway Airport, IL12 mi58 minN 109.00 miOvercast62°F59°F90%1006 hPa
Chicago / Wheeling, Pal-Waukee Airport, IL15 mi59 minN 510.00 miOvercast62°F60°F93%1007.5 hPa
Chicago / West Chicago, Dupage Airport, IL17 mi59 minNE 118.00 miOvercast62°F61°F96%1006.5 hPa
Lewis University Airport, IL21 mi76 minNNE 1010.00 miOvercast62°F59°F91%1006.8 hPa

Wind History from ORD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE13NE10NE9N14NE13NE14NE17
G24
NE15
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NE15NE9NE11NE12NE13NE15NE15NE13
G21
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NE11N10N8N10N11N11
1 day agoNE10NE11E7E4NE13E8E8NE11E8NE8E7NE11NE12E13E11E11E13E13E12E12E14
G21
E9
G18
NE14NE12
G18
2 days agoN8N9N10N7N7N5N5N6N5N6N6N6CalmN5NE765NE10NE11NE10NE8NE7NE10NE11

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Chicago, IL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.