Thursday, June20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Elmhurst, IL

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Sunrise 5:14AMSunset 8:31PM Thursday June 20, 2019 12:56 AM CDT (05:56 UTC) Moonrise 11:14PMMoonset 8:13AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ741 Expires:201906201015;;761420 Fzus53 Klot 200214 Nshlot Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Chicago/romeoville Il 914 Pm Cdt Wed Jun 19 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan Waves Are Provided As A Range Of Significant Wave Heights, Which Is The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves, Along With The Average Height Of The Highest 10 Percent Of The Waves Which Will Occasionally Be Encountered. Lmz740>742-201015- Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor- 914 Pm Cdt Wed Jun 19 2019
Rest of tonight..North winds 15 to 25 kt. Patchy fog. Showers. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Thursday..North winds 10 to 20 kt. Patchy fog in the morning. Chance of showers in the morning. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Thursday night..North winds 5 to 10 kt. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Friday..East winds 5 to 10 kt. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
LMZ741


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elmhurst, IL
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location: 41.89, -87.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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Fxus63 klot 200240
afdlot
area forecast discussion
national weather service chicago romeoville, il
940 pm cdt Wed jun 19 2019

Update
940 pm cdt
mid level circulation will continue its eastward trek along and
south of the i-80 corridor this evening. Lighter precipitation
will continue along its northern periphery, while more convective
elements will form redevelop ahead of it. Fortunately the mucape
axis not only is diminishing but becoming even more focused
across central and southern illinois, which will make lightning
coverage, which has been sparse even to this point, even less.

While widespread flash flooding concerns are not high in the
immediate term, with one hour rates generally under 1 2 inch, we
have had localized amounts to 1.8" in 3 hours (near dwight, il).

Therefore this initial batch of low echo centroid efficient rain
producing showers can still bring some decent rainfall in a short
time. Therefore, we will hang onto the flash flood watch given the
pwat axis in excess of 1.8" will spread into our southern
counties and into northwest indiana this evening and overnight,
and lead to possible concerns with the additional development
expected overnight.

Meanwhile, with the surface low now shifting farther east, winds
have become more northerly near the lakeshore. This coupled with
the more steady rain has allowed fog to lift, and thus expect
patchy fog from this point forward given the rain will continue.

Kmd

Short term
247 pm cdt
through tonight...

well-defined vort MAX on water vapor imagery early this afternoon
is cartwheeling across northern missouri with an associated
expanding developing warm conveyor to the east. Based on satellite
and radar loops, the center of this cyclonic circulation--arguably
convectively-reinforced--seems to be located over of just east of
chillicothe, missouri. To the east of this feature, a very moist
airmass has spread north and eastward, with pwats now analyzed in
the 1.6 to 1.9" range--nearing the 99th percentile for this time
of year. At the surface, a lake-enhanced cold front can be seen
dropping southwestward towards rensselaer and ottawa. To the north
of this boundary, conditions are cooler and stabilizing with a
rapid decrease in instability noted the farther north and east you
go towards the lake.

As this aforementioned shortwave developing surface low
intercepts this southward-moving boundary, expect a proliferation
of widespread light to moderate rainfall and embedded heavier,
convectively-enhanced precipitation rates into the evening hours.

Upstream observations have indicated rainfall rates inching
upwards into the 1-2 in hour range, with 30 minute rainfall rates
nearing one inch in some instances. Radar imagery depicts classic
low-echo centroid features in the embedded heavier cores currently
spreading east of peoria and a lack of appreciable lightning
activity confirms warm rain processes are dominating in this
tropical airmass. Guidance has clearly been struggling with the
evolution of the parent circulation, but has continued to latch on
to a farther north solution over the last several hours and this
is confirmed based on satellite and radar loops.

It appears as if a strung-out surface low will probably track
across our far southern tier of counties this evening and
overnight. As an associated 850 mb low deepens, guidance suggests
a pivoting deformation band may yield a longer residence time of
heavier precipitation into our cwa. Given all of this, we've opted
to hoist a flash flood watch for our counties south of i-80 where
hi-res guidance is now keying in on a potential for widespread
rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches with pockets of potentially 3-5
inches of rainfall through Thursday morning. This threat could
potentially spread a bit farther north and west of the current
watch, but rapidly decreasing instability in the post-frontal
airmass should keep overall rainfall rates in check.

Continue to think the severe weather risk remains low, but can't
rule out some gustier winds across our far southern counties this
afternoon from precip-loaded downdrafts.

Dense fog will continue into the early evening hours across the
nearshore waters. Conditions may improve for a period this evening
as rain begins, but a rapid deterioration in visibilities may re-
develop and attempt to push inland overnight and into Thursday
morning with a potential for pockets of dense fog across parts of
the region.

Carlaw

Long term
328 pm cdt
Friday through Wednesday...

Thursday: the surface low and shortwave trough axis responsible for
tonight's rain is progged to be over north-central indiana around
12z Thursday. The back edge of showers should be shifting east of
the i-39 corridor at this time, then gradually edge eastward through
northwest indiana by early afternoon. With the axis of heavier
showers likely still over NW indiana for a few hours after daybreak,
will continue the flash flood watch through 15z. Clouds should
briefly scatter west of the showers in the morning hours before a
healthy cumulus field develops during the afternoon. Most high-res
guidance attempts to initiate an isolated shower or two during the
afternoon where enough heating behind the departing system builds
convective cloud depths. As has been the case this month, guidance
appears to be a bit too high on surface dewpoints, so may be a
little aggressive on producing sufficient cloud depths to generate
precip. Have therefore kept the forecast dry, but would not be
surprised to see an isolated shower or two in the afternoon across
primarily the west half of the cwa.

Thursday night and Friday: dry weather is expected through much of
this time as the transition to an active set-up for the weekend
begins. However, the initial stages of WAA may be ongoing across the
southern CWA Friday afternoon. This may be enough to generate a few
showers and possibly an elevated storm or two, though chances do not
look overly high.

Friday night through Monday: an active period of weather is expected
during this time as several disturbances, some convectively
enhanced induced, round an amplifying mid-level ridge across the
lower half of the mississippi river valley. The overall message of
the potential for multiple rounds of thunderstorms, some severe,
Friday night into Monday remains the same as an increasingly
unstable air mass advects northward into the region. Additionally,
high pwats up to 1.8" will support very heavy rain with any
thunderstorms, increasing flash flood potential through the weekend.

Predictability in overall timing and intensity of convection remains
low as convection on each day across the region and the central
great plains will have significant impacts on convective evolution
on the following day. However, the overall pattern combined with
guidance suggests the first round of convection will lift NE toward
the CWA Friday night into Saturday morning in response to
substantial WAA and moisture transport on a 50kt low-level jet over
northern mo and southern ia. Impressive steepening of mid-level
lapse rates over this forcing will support robust nocturnal
convection arcing from western ia into west-central il in the
evening. Modest 1-6 km effective shear around 30 kts along with
decent MUCAPE within the steep lapse rates will support a risk for
severe hail with any thunderstorm. It appears most of the
significant convection should remain south and west of the cwa, but
as the LLJ veers through the night, some severe convection may reach
roughly the southwest half of the CWA through daybreak Saturday.

Uncertainty increases beyond Saturday morning as Friday night's
convection may hinder the northeastward expansion of the warm sector
through the CWA until late in the day and ultimately change where
and when additional convection develops on Saturday. The forecast
trend has been toward a slightly cooler Saturday with a decent
amount of convective debris clouds around, but actual precipitation
looks to be isolated to scattered at best given an overall lull in
forcing. LLJ activity may then focus convection west of the cwa
Saturday evening before veering and shifting storms into northern il
Saturday night. Additional rounds of storms will be possible through
Sunday night until a trough axis clears the CWA during the day
Monday.

Kluber

Aviation
For the 00z tafs...

low cigs, along with reduced vsbys in rain, will be the primary
aviation weather concern across the area tonight into Thursday.

Light, to occasionally moderate rainfall, is overspreading much
of northern il early this evening in response to the approach of
a weather disturbance. This disturbance will continue to produce
periods of rain through the evening, before gradually ending late
tonight. Some occasional periods of MVFR vsbys can be expected in
the heavier showers. Also, given the amount of low clouds and fog
on lake michigan, it is also likely that the chicago area
terminals will continue to experience ifr (or lower) conditions
tonight into Thursday morning. CIGS are expected to improve
gradually late Thursday afternoon and evening.

Kjb

Lot watches warnings advisories
Il... Flash flood watch... Ilz023-ilz032-ilz033-ilz039 until 7 am
Thursday.

In... Flash flood watch... Inz001-inz002-inz011 until 10 am Thursday.

Flash flood watch... Inz010-inz019 until 7 am Thursday.

Lm... None.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OKSI2 17 mi117 min ENE 4.1 G 8 56°F
FSTI2 17 mi117 min NNW 33 54°F
CNII2 18 mi27 min NW 15 G 16 54°F 51°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 20 mi37 min N 22 G 24 53°F 52°F
JAKI2 21 mi117 min N 15 G 26 56°F
45174 23 mi37 min N 18 G 23 4 ft1001.3 hPa
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 24 mi57 min NNW 13 G 20 54°F 1003.3 hPa (-1.1)54°F
45186 34 mi37 min N 16 G 21 55°F 56°F3 ft
45187 42 mi57 min N 14 G 18 54°F 54°F3 ft
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 45 mi77 min N 5.1 G 6 55°F 1004.4 hPa
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 49 mi57 min N 16 G 19 56°F 1005.4 hPa (-0.4)

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago, Chicago-O'Hare International Airport, IL7 mi66 minN 108.00 miLight Rain56°F53°F90%1004.1 hPa
Chicago, Chicago Midway Airport, IL12 mi64 minNNE 127.00 miLight Rain56°F54°F93%1003.3 hPa
Chicago / Wheeling, Pal-Waukee Airport, IL15 mi65 minN 810.00 miLight Rain58°F52°F81%1004.8 hPa
Chicago / West Chicago, Dupage Airport, IL17 mi65 minNNE 76.00 miRain Fog/Mist57°F53°F87%1004.2 hPa
Lewis University Airport, IL21 mi82 minNNE 13 G 187.00 miRain56°F54°F97%1003.7 hPa

Wind History from ORD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmS4CalmSW3CalmCalmCalmE3N6NE9NE8NE11NE10NE8NE11NE10NE13NE11NE12N13N11N16N12N10
1 day agoNE3E3NW3N6N3CalmCalmN3NE3N3N43E4CalmE6E7E5SE5E6E8E6SE5S4S3
2 days agoNE8N7NE7N9N9N5N8N8N7NE7N8NE7NE7NE7NE7NE7NE7N8N6NE7N6E4E6E3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Chicago, IL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.