Thursday, December13, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Elmhurst, IL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:09AMSunset 4:22PM Thursday December 13, 2018 3:23 AM CST (09:23 UTC) Moonrise 12:34PMMoonset 11:19PM Illumination 32% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ741 Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island- 900 Pm Cst Wed Dec 12 2018
Rest of tonight..West winds 10 to 15 kt diminishing to 5 to 10 kt and becoming south. Mostly cloudy late this evening...then becoming partly cloudy overnight. Waves 1 to 3 ft subsiding to around 1 ft toward morning.
Thursday..South winds 10 to 15 kt. Partly Sunny in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy in the afternoon. Waves around 1 ft.
Thursday night..South winds 5 to 10 kt becoming north after midnight. Rain. Waves around 1 ft.
Friday..North winds 10 to 15 kt. Chance of rain in the morning. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
LMZ741 Expires:201812131045;;708748 FZUS53 KLOT 130300 NSHLOT NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 900 PM CST Wed Dec 12 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the average height of the highest 10 percent of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. LMZ740-741-131045-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elmhurst, IL
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location: 41.89, -87.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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Fxus63 klot 130842
afdlot
area forecast discussion
national weather service chicago romeoville, il
242 am cst Thu dec 13 2018

Short term
239 am cst
through Friday...

quiet conditions are in place across northern illinois and
northwest indiana. We are surrounded on all sides by cloud cover
as the center of high pressure is largely on top of the area.

Resultant clear skies and light winds has led to some cool
temperatures along with patchy fog due to the lower dewpoint
depressions. Expect that to be the case to start the day with some
clouds starting to fill in from south to north.

The inverted surface trough axis out ahead of the deep upper low
over texas and ahead of the northern stream upper level trough
will expand over the local area this afternoon and tonight. Lower
level warm moist advection will spread some gulf moisture
northward, leading to an expanding shield of rain. Not out of the
question for some areas to get 0.5 inches of rain with this
system.

On the back side of the upper trough model guidance does bring in
some cooler air, and the question becomes does the precipitation
shield get shunted east before this cooler air arrive. Will call
it a slight chance of freezing rain getting into north central
illinois on the tail end late tonight into early Friday. Many of
the short term convective allowing models bring precip to an end
before this occurs. This will bear watching late tonight. Qpf
during this point would be low.

The modified cold frontal boundary will get hung up across the
area on Friday as the upper level flow in the midwest slows some
due to the cutoff low to the south and more active northern stream
winds across the upper great lakes. It appears lighter rain will
linger at least through the morning along and east of i-55. In
spite of increasing northeast winds the airmass is still
relatively mild, or at least more seasonal. Therefore we are
expecting little to no wintry precipitation on Friday.

Kmd

Long term
324 pm cst
Thursday night through Wednesday...

main concern for the long term forecast period will be a period of
pcpn, ongoing Thursday evening, and continuing through Saturday.

There will be some p-type concerns, largely tied to sfc temp trends.

A pacific-sourced southern stream system is expected to be tracking
through northern texas Thursday afternoon, with an inverted trough
axis extending north through il by early Friday evening.

Conditions will continue to be relatively warm into the evening
hours, so pcpn will start out as liquid. P-type concern comes into
play durg the early morning hours when the trough axis shifts to
the east and low level flow turns northerly and draws in colder
air. Latest guidance suggests that a shallow sub-freezing layer
may reach into far nwrn ncntrl il setting up a chance for some
freezing rain. There is a chance that the pcpn could be shutting
off or becoming very light, so confidence in the duration and
amount of freezing pcpn is low.

The main sfc low is expected to begin to lift northeast Friday night
and Saturday morning while high pressure builds over the central
plains. There remains some uncertainty as to the track of the sfc
low, which has impact on the QPF shield associated with the system.

The NAM is trending a bit farther north with the track of the low
than some of the other models, with the GFS the farthest south and
the ECMWF a more middle solution. Have trended the QPF pops toward
the middle of the road solution, but this introduces some concerns,
once again, regarding p-type. Depending on the exact track of the
low, the farther south solution would suggest that there may be no
pcpn over the cwa, the farther north solutions would suggest some
light freezing rain with the northern fringe of the pcpn shield. How
much areal coverage of freezing rain associated with the system,
will be highly dependent track of the low. Given the uncertainty
with the track of the system on Saturday, again, confidence is
low.

By Saturday night, a series of high pressure system will move across
the region, setting up an extended period of dry weather. Since
these systems are not of arctic origin, conditions will continue to
be relatively mild, with highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s and
lows in the 20s.

Aviation
For the 06z tafs...

primary forecast concern remains light rain arriving early
Thursday evening along with ifr lifr cigs.

Overall... No significant changes from the previous forecast. Low
clouds have scattered out and not expecting CIGS to redevelop
overnight. There may be some patchy fog through sunrise but
confidence is low for both how widespread the fog may become or
how low vis may drop.

Winds will be light and variable overnight then shift to the
southeast toward sunrise with prevailing speeds expected to remain
under 10kts Thursday. Wind directions will turn more easterly
toward sunset and more northeasterly Thursday night.

Light rain will spread across the terminals early Thursday
evening. Timing still looks on track from this distance but some
tweaks may still be needed. Low MVFR CIGS are expected to arrive
in the afternoon ahead of this light rain and then lower into ifr
with the rain. Guidance still indicates lifr CIGS are possible
later Thursday evening into early Friday morning but there remains
too much uncertainty from this distance to include lifr cigs. Cms

Lot watches warnings advisories
Il... None.

In... None.

Lm... None.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FSTI2 17 mi143 min WSW 6 31°F
CNII2 18 mi23 min Calm G 8 31°F 24°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 20 mi33 min NW 5.1 G 5.1 33°F 27°F
JAKI2 21 mi143 min WSW 4.1 G 5.1 31°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 24 mi53 min SSW 2.9 G 4.1 30°F 1015.8 hPa26°F
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 33 mi43 min WSW 4.1 G 5.1 29°F
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 45 mi43 min S 1.9 G 1.9 30°F 1016.9 hPa
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 49 mi83 min WSW 4.1 G 8 31°F 1015.6 hPa (+1.7)

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago, Chicago-O'Hare International Airport, IL7 mi32 minN 06.00 miFog/Mist24°F21°F91%1016.6 hPa
Chicago, Chicago Midway Airport, IL12 mi30 minS 37.00 miFair29°F21°F75%1017.2 hPa
Chicago / Wheeling, Pal-Waukee Airport, IL15 mi31 minN 05.00 miFog/Mist25°F21°F85%1017.2 hPa
Chicago / West Chicago, Dupage Airport, IL17 mi31 minSSW 37.00 miFair22°F18°F85%1016.6 hPa
Lewis University Airport, IL21 mi48 minSSE 35.00 miFog/Mist25°F24°F96%1016.3 hPa

Wind History from ORD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE10S8S8S10S12
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W12
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G25
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SW9W7W8W5W3CalmSW4SW3CalmCalm
1 day agoSW6SW7SW9SW6SW7W10W9W6W7W84SW5SW3E8E6E5E5E4E6E5SE6SE6SE7SE8
2 days agoCalmSW3CalmSW3W3W5SW5W8SW10W10SW9S9SW8S7SW8SW10SW10SW9SW9SW7SW7SW10SW10SW9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Chicago, IL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.