Thursday, July19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Hornbrook, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:49AMSunset 8:44PM Wednesday July 18, 2018 10:59 PM PDT (05:59 UTC) Moonrise 11:25AMMoonset 11:33PM Illumination 37% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
PZZ330 1126 Pm Pdt Fri Aug 9 2013
.thunderstorms over the waters... Thunderstorms over the waters have weakened but isolated storms will continue overnight. Mariners can expect gusty and erratic winds with the storms along with frequent lightning. If caught on the open water stay below deck if possible...keep away from ungrounded metal objects. Lat...lon 4397 12411 4396 12411 4400 12413 4284 12455 4242 12440 4225 12441 4205 12428 4184 12422 4181 12580 4198 12579 4220 12589 4370 12576 4386 12565 4399 12562 4403 12414
PZZ300 827 Pm Pdt Wed Jul 18 2018
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..High pressure offshore and a thermal trough at the coast will continue gusty northerly winds with steep to very steep wind driven seas through the week. Winds will be weakest near shore south of brookings, but seas will still be steep from short period fresh swell. Winds and seas will be highest south of cape blanco beyond 5 nm from shore...especially tonight through Friday evening with gales and hazardous seas expected. The thermal trough should diminish and shift inland toward the end of the weekend, improving marine conditions.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hornbrook, CA
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location: 41.9, -122.57     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 190306
afdmfr
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
806 pm pdt Wed jul 18 2018

Discussion 19 00z NAM in.

A flat ridge over the western u.S. Will gradually weaken as a long
wave trough moves onshore to the north of the area. Most inland
areas will see a degree or two of cooling through Friday, but
overall it will remain hot and dry with areas of smoke from
numerous wildfires. It will also be hot and dry along the south
coast with easterly flow in place. The smoke may be thick enough
to moderate the temperatures in some locations.

The one exception will be the coast north of CAPE blanco, where
it will be cooler with moderate north winds and weak onshore flow.

There will also be areas of marine stratus spreading into the
coastal valleys in the late night and early morning hours.

Another concern is winds and poor recoveries over the ridges of
southwest oregon and western siskiyou county. That is discussed in
more detail in the fire weather section below. The rogue and
shasta valleys will also see some gusty winds in the afternoon and
evening hours over the next few days.

Extended discussion from the Wednesday afternoon afd... Sat 21 july
through Tuesday 24 july 2018... Monsoonal moisture will once again
creep up into northern cal and southeast lake and klamath
counties Saturday afternoon. The models crack out some QPF late in
the afternoon. The trigger is weak, but instability is marginal,
so we'll keep a slight chance of thunder in those areas late
Saturday afternoon and evening.

Sunday, conditions could be more favorable for thunderstorms with
more moisture, instability and a slightly stronger trigger and it
could affect northern california and east of the cascades.

The models are in pretty good agreement showing the strong upper
ridge building northwestward into our area for early next week. We
still can't rule out an isolated thunderstorm or two east of the
cascades and maybe northern california Monday afternoon, otherwise
it will stay dry. -petrucelli

Aviation For the 19 00z tafs... Wildfire smoke continues over much
of the west side from many fires. So, expect lower visibilities in
west side valleys, and of course near fires. Smoke could obstruct
the umpqua divide, and parts of the siskiyous and cascades. Along
the coast, a thermal trough will bring gusty north winds... Then
later tonight, a marine push will bring CIGS down to ifr or even
lifr. Some clouds may make it into the umpqua basin, though
confidence isn't high that the marine layer will make it all the way
to krbg. -msm czs

Marine Updated 800 pm pdt Wednesday 18 july 2018... High pressure
offshore and a thermal trough at the coast will continue gusty
northerly winds with steep to very steep wind driven seas through
the week. Winds will be weakest near shore south of brookings, but
seas will still be steep from short period fresh swell. Winds and
seas will be highest south of CAPE blanco beyond 5 nm from
shore... Especially tonight through Friday evening with gales and
hazardous seas expected. The thermal trough should diminish and
shift inland toward the end of the weekend, improving marine
conditions. -msm czs

Fire weather Updated 800 pm pdt Wednesday 18 july 2018...

east winds tonight through Thursday morning are expected to be
slightly stronger than they were last night into this morning. Even
the best numerical model guidance was more than 5% too high on the
rh forecast for last night into this morning across the forecast
area, so confidence in the guidance for rh is low. That model
guidance shows significant rh increases over SW oregon and nw
california, where the NE winds will be again tonight. Therefore,
went close to persistence with the rhs for tonight. The current
situation is the concerning one of the 'lowering subsidence
inversion'- concerning because this is a pattern that has caused
significant fire growth in the past due to the cumulative effects of
longer burning periods on consecutive days.

For Thursday afternoon through Friday the pattern does not look to
change much. Afternoon and evening winds are likely to be similar
Thursday as today, but lesser on Friday. East winds Thursday night
into Friday do bear some watching, as increasing pressure gradients
along and near the coast equate to stronger winds. We'll be closely
watching what happens tonight, as there is some indication that we
might need a fire weather watch in and near fwz 619 Thursday night
into Friday morning if current trends continue.

The thunderstorm threat for Friday has been removed with guidance
indicating just an increase in high clouds and not enough moisture
and instability. Saturday southeast sections of the area, including
modoc, SE siskiyou, and southern lake counties, could get isolated
thunderstorms, per the GFS guidance. The ECMWF indicates it will
remain thunderstorm free. The GFS and the GEFS now show more of a
threat for Sunday, possibly lingering into Monday and Tuesday, while
the ECMWF has trended dry for the entire period. It does appear that
Sunday is the greatest thunderstorm threat day, with potential
activity possibly making it as far north as the siskiyous in
california and as far west as the oregon cascades in oregon. With
the ECMWF indicating something different and the instability,
moisture, and trigger all looking rather weak, confidence is not
high on any given day from Saturday onward. Sunday confidence is
moderate, and low on the other days. Btl

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... None.

Ca... None.

Pacific coastal waters... Small craft advisory until 11 pm pdt Friday
for pzz350-356-370.

Gale warning until 11 pm pdt Friday for pzz356-376.

Hazardous seas warning until 11 pm pdt Friday for
pzz350-356-370-376.

15 15 11


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CECC1 - 9419750 - Crescent City, CA 86 mi48 min S 8 G 9.9 57°F 60°F1015.7 hPa
46027 - ST GEORGES - 8NM West Northwest of Crescent City, CA 96 mi70 min N 21 G 27 56°F 54°F10 ft1015.3 hPa (+0.9)

Wind History for Crescent City, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Montague Siskiyou County Airport, CA9 mi67 minN 1210.00 miFair77°F43°F30%1016.9 hPa

Wind History from SIY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN7N6NE6CalmE3CalmCalmCalmNE34Calm--N6CalmCalm6N14
G21
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1 day agoCalmS3SW3CalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmNW4CalmSW4Calm--3W5W9NW17N16N12N7N11NE6
2 days agoCalmCalmE3CalmS4SE4N5CalmNE4N5Calm3CalmSW35Calm3NW4N8N14N7SE7NW10SW10

Tide / Current Tables for Crescent City, California
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Crescent City
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Thu -- 12:39 AM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:16 AM PDT     5.37 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:58 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:24 AM PDT     0.92 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 12:53 PM PDT     First Quarter
Thu -- 01:37 PM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:05 PM PDT     6.75 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:46 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.72.23.14.14.95.45.24.63.62.41.5111.72.84.25.46.46.76.55.74.53.22.2

Tide / Current Tables for Brookings, Chetco Cove, Oregon
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Brookings
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:39 AM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:17 AM PDT     5.37 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:58 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:28 AM PDT     0.92 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 12:53 PM PDT     First Quarter
Thu -- 01:37 PM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:06 PM PDT     6.75 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:48 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.72.23.14.14.95.35.24.63.62.51.5111.62.74.15.46.46.76.55.74.63.32.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of CentralWestCoast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.