Sunrise 5:53 AM   Sunset 8:20 PM Moonrise 5:41 AM   Moonset 9:52 PM

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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
PZZ330 1126 Pm Pdt Fri Aug 9 2013.thunderstorms over the waters - . Thunderstorms over the waters have weakened but isolated storms will continue overnight. Mariners can expect gusty and erratic winds with the storms along with frequent lightning. If caught on the open water stay below deck if possible - .keep away from ungrounded metal objects. Lat - .lon 4397 12411 4396 12411 4400 12413 4284 12455 4242 12440 4225 12441 4205 12428 4184 12422 4181 12580 4198 12579 4220 12589 4370 12576 4386 12565 4399 12562 4403 12414

PZZ300 221 Pm Pdt Thu May 9 2024
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters - The thermal trough is weakening, but gusty north winds and steep wind-driven seas will continue through tonight. Lighter winds and calmer seas are expected Friday into the weekend, then the thermal trough returns next week.

FXUS66 KMFR 092116 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 216 PM PDT Thu May 9 2024

DISCUSSION

Discussion
Satellite imagery shows clear skies over most of the forecast area. A few cumulus clouds are moving east to west over eastern Modoc and southeast Lake County, but that's it. A rather quiet pattern is in the cards for the next several days with afternoon temperatures warming op over the next couple of days followed by a slight cool down Sunday into early next week.

The latest surface analysis shows the thermal trough parked just off the southwestern oregon coast. This has resulted in gusty east to northeast winds at the mid slopes and ridges and also in the Illinois Valley. The east winds will also be favorable for a Chetco effect to set up with Brookings expected to warm up late this afternoon. Currently it's 76 degrees and could hit or get into the lower 80s later this afternoon. The offshore flow is also resulting warmer temperatures near North Bend where it's currently 68 degrees.

Breezy east winds are also occurring east of the Cascades and this is likely to continue into early this evening. Winds aloft (near 700mb) are also contributing to the east to northeast winds.

Tonight, winds will generally diminish, however it will remain breezy near and and at the ridges for the coastal mountains in southwest Oregon and western Siskiyou County. The continued offshore flow will keep marine stratus at bay, so were expecting skies to remain clear. However some of the deeper valleys for the coastal counties could experience a brief period of low clouds towards daybreak tomorrow. If anything were to develop, it's only going to last for a brief period of time.

Friday will be similar to today, except it will be warmer in the afternoon for the interior westside valleys. The thermal trough will shift inland over the interior westside valleys and this will lead to lighter winds in the afternoon. Afternoon temperatures could push 90 degrees in portions of the Rogue and Illinois Valley, and Umpqua Basin which will be the first time this season many of these areas could get to 90 or just a hair above that.

Saturday will be dry and warm again for the interior. The thermal trough will remain inland on Saturday and this will open up the door for weak onshore flow near and at the coast and there's enough evidence to suggest marine stratus will make a return and/or form along the coast and over the marine waters overnight Friday and persist into Saturday, although it could peel back just off the coast Saturday afternoon.

Saturday night will be dry with weak onshore flow bring solid layer or marine stratus back along the coast and could make it's way a bit inland into portions of the Coquille Basin.

Most areas will be dry Sunday with slight cooling Sunday afternoon for the interior. Some of the data suggest there could be enough instability and trigger for a isolated storms to pop up late in the afternoon and early evening in portions of northern California. The operational GFS continues to be the most bullish with the extent of the instability, while others not so much. The thermal trough will shift east Sunday resulting in breezy afternoon winds for the interior westside valleys and east of the Cascades.

The mean ridge remain offshore early next eek with a continued northwest flow. However the latest operational ECMWF shows a stronger upper trough moving into the area Monday which if correct could bring enough instability and trigger for isolated thunderstorms along and east of the Cascades Monday afternoon and evening. However only 11 of 50 members of the ECMWF ensembles hint at any convection, and the operational GFS and ensemble members show a dry and stable solution. For now we'll keep it dry Monday, but we'll continue to monitor this.

The upper ridge will remain west of the forecast area Tuesday and Wednesday with a dry, stable west to northwest flow over our area and temperatures above normal for most interior locations.

Thursday, there's some indications the upper ridge will break down as an upper trough moves towards the area, but it's pretty much a 50/50 split between the cluster mean solutions and individual ECMWF ensemble solutions. The individual GFS ensemble means show ridging.
-Petrucelli



AVIATION
09/18Z TAFs...VFR prevails through this evening. Expect N-NE breezes along the coast and in the Umpqua Basin again this afternoon, while broad mainly E-NE flow can be expected elsewhere.
Overall, wind gusts won't be quite as high as they were on Wednesday, generally peaking in the 15-25 kt range. Winds calm overnight, with VFR continuing to prevail. -BPN



MARINE
Updated 200 PM Thursday, May 9, 2024...The thermal trough is weakening, but gusty north winds and steep wind-driven seas will continue through tonight. Lighter winds and calmer seas are expected Friday into the weekend, then the thermal trough returns next week. -BPN



MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR
CA
None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Friday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

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Crescent City
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Thu -- 12:18 AM PDT     7.77 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:02 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:48 AM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:23 AM PDT     -1.98 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:04 PM PDT     5.67 feet High Tide
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Thu -- 12:20 AM PDT     7.78 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:02 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:48 AM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:24 AM PDT     -2.01 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:06 PM PDT     5.67 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:06 PM PDT     2.51 feet Low Tide
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