Tuesday, May21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
South Monroe, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:06AMSunset 8:54PM Tuesday May 21, 2019 2:38 AM EDT (06:38 UTC) Moonrise 10:48PMMoonset 7:23AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ444 Michigan Waters Of Lake Erie From Detroit River To North Cape Mi- 1002 Pm Edt Sat Jul 22 2017
Rest of tonight..West winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the north early in the morning. Partly cloudy. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Light and variable winds. Mostly cloudy early in the morning...then partly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the late morning and afternoon. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the west in the late evening and overnight. Mostly clear. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the evening...then a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the late evening and early morning. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Monday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves around 2 feet or less. SEe lake erie open lake forecast for days 3 through 5. The water temperature at belle isle is 77.4 degrees.
LEZ444 Expires:201707230900;;677433 FZUS63 KDTX 230203 GLFSC GLFLH Open Lake Forecast for Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1001 PM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017 For waters beyond five nautical miles off shore on Lake Huron Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...A broad area of low pressure...29.70 inches...will slowly track across Lower Michigan through Sunday. The system will exit to the east Sunday night, pulling a cold front through the central Great Lakes late Sunday and Sunday night. High pressure...30.20 inches...then builds into the area Monday and Tuesday. LEZ444-230900-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near South Monroe, MI
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location: 41.9, -83.42     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 210401
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
1201 am edt Tue may 21 2019

Aviation
A dry and stable environment as high pressure builds into the region
will maintain mostly clear skies across the lowest 5000 ft through
Tuesday, outside of perhaps a few diurnal cu. Prevailing northwest
winds diminishing in speed overnight, then shifting to east-
northeast on Tuesday. High clouds thickening from south to north
throughout Tuesday.

Dtw threshold probabilities
* none

Prev discussion
Issued at 325 pm edt Mon may 20 2019
discussion...

it has been a chilly late may day across SE mi as temps have largely
remained in the low-mid 50s with westerly winds gusting in the 20 to
30 mph range. Surface high pressure will expand into lower mi from
the west during the course of the night, tucked under a region of
mid level confluence. The resulting low level anticyclonic flow and
loss in diurnal mixing will support a clearing trend during the
evening, possibly into the early overnight. Veering of the low level
flow toward the northwest and the southeastward expansion of the
lake mi marine layer will cause the clearing to take hold from
northwest to southeast tonight. As the sfc high builds in overnight,
winds will become light, supporting decent radiational cooling. This
cooling will be limited to a degree by an increase in mid high level
clouds late tonight, mainly south of the i-69 corridor. The saginaw
valley and thumb region, where evening clearing will be the earliest
to occur will see the greatest degree of cooling, with mins likely
dipping down into the 30s. Lows in the 40s should suffice elsewhere.

Given that the low levels remain relatively moist (sfc dewpoints
still around 40) only patchy frost will be mentioned across the
north tonight.

Se mi will lie between a deep upper level low rotating across the
central high plains and an upper low moving into the canadian
maritimes on Tuesday. This will result in a sharpening mid level
ridge axis across the great lakes, sustaining the sfc high across
the region. There will however be a forced transport of higher mid
level moisture into SRN mi during the day Tuesday within the
entrance region of an impressive 160 upper jet MAX over ERN canada.

Model solutions suggest this moisture combined with some mid level
frontal forcing will support some showers across NRN in, possibly
far SW lower mi on Tuesday. As mid level heights build during the
day, this frontal circulation is shown to weaken. This and a fairly
substantial sub 700mb dry layer will support a dry forecast Tuesday,
although there will be ample mid and high clouds through the day.

Some moderation in the low level thermal profile will allow tues
high temps to make a run at lower 60s, with cooler readings near the
lakes under onshore flow.

With the plains upper low forecast to lift into the northern plains
on Wednesday, strong low-mid level southwest inflow across the ohio
valley will drive mid level moisture and an elevated instability
plume into SE mi. Timing looks to be late tues night into early
Wednesday. Fairly steep mid level lapse rates within this moisture
feed will be supportive of a good chance of showers and
thunderstorms. There will be a strengthening of the low level
southeast flow overnight Tuesday into the day Wednesday with the
approach of the sfc warm front. This may lead to yet another round
of water level rises and flooding concerns along the shores of lakes
st clair and erie. There is a fair amount of model agreement in
suggesting the warm front will lift into SE mi late wed. The
timing placement of this front will have substantial impact on
temperatures Wednesday as it will replace a cool marine modified
airmass with a more summer-like temperature humidity regime.

Thursday, southeastern michigan will have shower and thunderstorm
chances from a weak cold front trailing a shortwave located north of
lake superior. This is quickly followed by a small ridge of high
pressure that will be over the state on early Friday. By late Friday
evening shower and storm chances return and linger through the day
Saturday as a warm front moves across SE mi. This front is tied to a
low that will be moving northeast from the plains into minnesota. As
the low moves into ontario and quebec, the trailing cold front is
looking to stall out near or just south of the ohio border. This
becomes a stationary front that will keep rain chances for counties
along the ohio border from Saturday night through Sunday.

Marine...

west-northwest winds this afternoon gusting to around 25 knots this
afternoon will slowly decrease this evening and shift to the
northeast overnight as high pressure builds into the area through
tomorrow, providing light winds and favorable marine conditions
during the day. East to southeast flow will then increase on
Wednesday as this high shifts to the east and a warm front lifts
north towards the area. However, winds are expected to stay under 25
knots along the nearshore waters, and small craft advisories may not
be needed. Winds become southwest late Wednesday night ahead of a
cold front, which passes through on Thursday. Gusts up to 25 knots
are possible right along the shoreline areas of the nearshore
waters, with low level stability over the open waters holding gusts
generally under 20 knots.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Mr
discussion... Sc kdk
marine... ... .Sf
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 13 mi48 min NE 7 G 8 51°F
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 15 mi44 min NNW 2.9 G 6 49°F 1019.9 hPa41°F
45165 16 mi28 min NE 3.9 G 5.8 53°F 59°F1 ft42°F
TWCO1 16 mi28 min W 8.9 G 12 54°F 1016.8 hPa44°F
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH 36 mi38 min NE 4.1 G 5.1 48°F 1020.4 hPa (+0.8)
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH 44 mi44 min NE 8 G 9.9 51°F 57°F1019.6 hPa46°F
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 49 mi38 min SW 1.9 G 2.9 48°F 1020.7 hPa (+0.7)

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Monroe, Custer Airport, MI3 mi43 minN 010.00 miFair44°F43°F98%1020 hPa
Lambertville, Toledo Suburban Airport, MI17 mi42 minN 010.00 miFair45°F42°F93%1020.3 hPa
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI20 mi43 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy45°F41°F87%1020.3 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI23 mi45 minW 310.00 miPartly Cloudy46°F39°F77%1020.7 hPa
Detroit, Willow Run Airport, MI24 mi45 minWNW 410.00 miFair44°F39°F85%1020.5 hPa
Toledo - Toledo Executive Airport, OH24 mi45 minN 310.00 miA Few Clouds50°F41°F71%1020.2 hPa

Wind History from TTF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW5SW6SW7W11
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NW8NW11NW6NW6NW3W3CalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmS3S6S9
G15
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2 days agoE3CalmCalmE6E5E4E4E9SE9E7E7SE6SE4SE6SE6SE10E8E3E3E3CalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.