Wednesday, May24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Whiting, IN

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:20AMSunset 8:13PM Tuesday May 23, 2017 11:13 PM CDT (04:13 UTC) Moonrise 4:11AMMoonset 5:37PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ779 Lake Michigan From Michigan City In To St. Joseph Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Two Rivers To Sheboygan Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Sheboygan To Port Washington Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Port Washington To North Point Light Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From North Point Light To Wind Point Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor Il 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Wilmette Harbor Il To Michigan City In 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Pentwater To Manistee Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Whitehall To Pentwater Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Grand Haven To Whitehall Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Holland To Grand Haven Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From South Haven To Holland Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From St. Joseph To South Haven Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- 851 Pm Cdt Tue May 23 2017 Two Rivers Wi To Manistee Mi South...
Rest of tonight..Northeast winds 10 to 15 kt increasing to 10 to 20 kt after midnight. Periods of showers. A slight chance of Thunderstorms before midnight. Waves 1 to 3 ft building to 2 to 4 ft.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 10 to 20 kt becoming north 15 to 25 kt late in the morning. Chance of rain showers. Waves 3 to 5 ft occasionally to 7 ft building to 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Wednesday night..North winds 15 to 25 kt. Chance of showers. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Thursday..North winds 15 to 25 kt diminishing to 10 to 20 kt late. Waves 3 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Thursday night..North winds 10 to 20 kt diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Friday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 kt backing to south. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Friday night..South winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Saturday..North winds 10 to 15 kt becoming northeast. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sunday..Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt becoming west. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
LMZ779 Expires:201705240945;;106881 FZUS63 KLOT 240151 GLFLM OPEN LAKE FORECAST FOR LAKE MICHIGAN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 851 PM CDT TUE MAY 23 2017 FOR WATERS BEYOND FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKE MICHIGAN. WAVES ARE PROVIDED AS A RANGE OF SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS, WHICH IS THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVE, ALONG WITH THE AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 10% OF THE WAVES WHICH WILL OCCASIONALLY BE ENCOUNTERED. .SYNOPSIS...A WEAK LOW AROUND 29.7 INCHES OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS WILL MEANDER OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH MID WEEK WHILE SLOWLY DEEPENING TO AROUND 29.4 INCHES. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING AROUND 29.9 INCHES WILL MOVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LMZ080-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-870-872-874-876-878-240945-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Whiting, IN
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location: 41.9, -87.31     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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Fxus63 klot 240125 aaa
afdlot
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service chicago romeoville, il
825 pm cdt Tue may 23 2017

Update
825 pm cdt
the going forecast of scattered periods of showers tonight remains
on track. There was a slight diminishing in coverage since 7 pm
owing more to the passing of a shortwave than a true diurnal
downtick. While some diurnal dissipation should be the case
through the evening, variation in coverage is likely with
continued cold mid-level air and subtle short wave impulses ahead
of the main low center. The 00z dvn and ilx soundings indicated
200-400 j kg of MUCAPE and 25-40 kt of deep layer shear that will
continue to be tapped for showers with some organization and
spotty moderate to heavy rates. As an example, pontiac airport
had 1 2sm visibility around 7 pm with a shower. The potential for
funnel clouds likely has ended as surface winds are generally
light and variable with little for low-level convergence, and any
lightning should be few and far between.

Given the rain and low t TD spreads, fog is a possibility. There
is quite a bit of existing cloud cover that would hint at low
stratus being more dominant than fog, but confidence is low.

Certainly at least shallow patchy fog is a good bet in some
locations, and would be likely and even dense in any areas that
have a thinning in cloud cover (presently not favored for most of
the cwa).

Mtf

Short term
240 pm cdt
through Wednesday...

deep low pressure will continue to sink south from the corn belt
to the lower mississippi valley Thursday. The first in a series of
waves ahead of the low will shift northeast through the flying
area this afternoon. Expect an increase in shower coverage and
intensity over the coming hours with the enhanced lift from this
wave, with some moderate showers due to a narrow moisture plume
precipitable water values in excess of 1 inch there is a small
pocket of instability across north central illinois into adjacent
wisconsin where the best near term chances for embedded
thunderstorms exists. With the upper low shifting farther east,
cold temperatures aloft will allow some of this weak instability
to shift over northeast illinois and northwest indiana. This
combined with the vort MAX still warrants a low chance thunder
mention. Rap forecast of non-supercell tornado threat are still
low but low level CAPE does exist in very localized pockets near
the cold frontal boundary where low level vorticity is enhanced,
and with some limited clearing there is still a limited severe
weather concern for gusty winds as the vort MAX encounters the
front this afternoon.

As the low sinks south tonight into Wednesday, expect continued
waves of showers as additional energy spreads northward ahead of
the low, with coverage likely decreasing though possibly becoming
more narrowly focused on eastern half of the area. There could be
a modest rainfall axis that will setup tomorrow, with the i-55
eastward corridor still favored, but still challenging to pinpoint
at this time. A low thunder chance exists across east central il
and northwest in as well. Elsewhere just expect occasional showers
and cool cloudy conditions.

Kmd

Long term
240 pm cdt
Wednesday night through Tuesday...

looking ahead through the extended part of the forecast, there are
not many periods without a mention of rain chances. We transition
away from one upper low late this week but into another this
weekend, with only weak ridging in between. However, despite the
frequent chances for rainfall, it does not appear that each day will
be a washout. In general the showers should be to some extent
diurnally driven under a cyclonic upper level circulation, which
means at least the early part of most days could be favorable for
outdoor activity.

The most likely period for a break in activity appears to be
Thursday afternoon into the early part of Friday as the first system
moves out and cooler, drier air moves in with northerly surface
flow.

Warmer and more humid air returns for Friday and Saturday. The
biggest uncertainty for this forecast period comes late Friday and
into the weekend, with the deterministic GFS and ECMWF in poor
agreement with the timing of an upper wave and surface low pressure
system moving through the southern great lakes. Presently the much
faster ecm... As well as the gem... Brings this system through late
Friday and leaves behind just some light activity for Saturday. The
gfs is about a day slower and shows widespread rainfall Saturday
afternoon and evening. Both have a stationary front extending east
from a larger center of low pressure across oklahoma early Friday.

They both also depict a wave forming along the front as the one that
pushes through the local area. Given the proximity of the boundary
and the uncertainty with the movement of the surface wave, will
continue to carry increasing precip chances late Friday, especially
south, and again Saturday afternoon and evening for a larger portion
of the area.

Models are in somewhat better agreement in depicting another break
in the weather early Sunday, then a large upper low becoming parked
over the great lakes from late in the weekend through at least
midweek. This would support ongoing widespread chances of rainfall,
especially during periods of afternoon heating.

Lenning

Aviation
For the 00z tafs...

the main concerns are precipitation trends, winds and cig vsby
trends. A slow moving upper level low pressure will continue to
bring waves of showers at least into Wednesday morning which will
be capable of reduced visibility. The more frequent or prevailing
rain shower activity should on the large scale focus over the
eastern terminals, with isolated to at times scattered showers
near rfd. The wind field is quite light with a light pressure
gradient but as weak low pressure organizes south of area tonight,
tendency should be for gradually increasing northeast winds. By
mid-day Wednesday and likely through Wednesday evening, the
position of stronger low pressure off to the east will support
gusty north-northeast winds with gust speeds forecast of 18-20 kt
and potential for up to 25 kt at eastern terminals.

Regarding cig trends, the most widespread low clouds are over
wisconsin from mke and to the north and northwest of there. Much
of the guidance, but not all, brings these low clouds southward
tonight with time and then lingers it into Wednesday. Am concerned
that this a bit overdone, so limited the duration of ifr in the
tafs, leaning on probabilistic ensemble guidance for trend toward
improvement by the mid-late morning through the afternoon.

Confidence is low- medium with cig trends overall. If the low
clouds do scatter as anticipated, some guidance hints at them
spreading back southwest Wednesday evening. The lighter wind and
moist regime overnight into Wednesday morning may support vsby
reductions in br outside of shower activity.

Castro

Marine
309 pm cdt
low pressure dropping from wisconsin into indiana tonight and then
moving to ohio Wednesday evening will support northeast winds
across the lake through Thursday night. Winds are lighter and more
variable Friday and Saturday under the influence of a ridge of
weak high pressure moving over the lake.

Lenning

Lot watches warnings advisories
Il... None.

In... None.

Lm... None.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 14 mi23 min NNE 6 G 7 55°F 53°F
JAKI2 16 mi133 min NE 2.9 55°F
CNII2 16 mi13 min N 2.9 G 5.1 55°F
OKSI2 17 mi133 min E 1 56°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 17 mi43 min NNW 4.1 G 5.1 55°F 1004.8 hPa54°F
FSTI2 19 mi133 min E 2.9 54°F
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 20 mi33 min ENE 7 G 8.9 55°F 1005.8 hPa
45170 21 mi23 min NE 9.7 G 12 53°F 53°F1 ft53°F
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 24 mi23 min NE 9.9 G 11 54°F 54°F
45174 24 mi23 min 7.8 G 7.8 51°F 53°F1 ft50°F
45026 - St. Joseph, MI 37 mi23 min NE 9.7 G 12 55°F 56°F1 ft1005.5 hPa52°F
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 42 mi33 min N 4.1 G 5.1 51°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Gary Regional Airport, IN20 mi18 minNE 510.00 miOvercast56°F52°F88%1005.1 hPa

Wind History from GYY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW5S5SW4S4S3SW3S5S7SW4SW9W11W7CalmCalmCalmE6NE5NE6N4NW6CalmN6N4NE4
1 day agoSW7SW4SW5SW5SW6
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SW5CalmSW8SW6W12SW9SW10SW12SW12W14SW12SW15SW15
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2 days agoSE8SE5SE5SE4S5S4SW8W7W12W12
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SW17SW17SW16SW717SW20SW17W20W15W20W20W12W15
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Chicago, IL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.