Wednesday, June19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Whiting, IN

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Sunrise 5:13AMSunset 8:30PM Wednesday June 19, 2019 11:42 AM CDT (16:42 UTC) Moonrise 10:32PMMoonset 7:13AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ779 Expires:201906192115;;732181 Fzus63 Kmkx 191341 Glflm Open Lake Forecast For Lake Michigan National Weather Service Milwaukee/sullivan Wi 841 Am Cdt Wed Jun 19 2019 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan. Waves Are Provided As A Range Of Significant Wave Heights, Which Is The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave, Along With The Average Height Of The Highest 10% Of The Waves Which Will Occasionally Be Encountered.
Synopsis.. Areas of fog will be possible over the south part of the lake this morning. High pressure of 29.9 inches will cross lake superior today. Northerly winds will prevail today and Thursday with gusts approaching 20 knots. This increase in winds is due to low pressure of 29.4 inches passing through central illinois and indiana Wednesday night into Thursday. High pressure of 30.0 inches will then move over the region Thursday night into Friday. Low pressure around 29.7 inches will cross lake michigan Saturday night into Sunday. Lmz080-669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878-192115- lake michigan from michigan city in to st. Joseph mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from sheboygan to port washington wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from port washington to north point light wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from north point light to wind point wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wind point wi to winthrop harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from winthrop harbor to wilmette harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wilmette harbor il to michigan city in 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from whitehall to pentwater mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from grand haven to whitehall mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from holland to grand haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from south haven to holland mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from st. Joseph to south haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 841 am cdt Wed jun 19 2019 sheboygan wi to pentwater mi south...
Rest of today..North winds 10 to 20 kt. Patchy fog. Showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms through mid morning, then slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms this afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Tonight..North winds 10 to 20 kt. Chance of showers. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Thursday..North winds 10 to 20 kt. Chance of showers in the morning. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Thursday night..North winds 10 to 20 kt diminishing to less than 10 kt overnight. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Friday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 kt increasing to 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Friday night..East winds 10 to 15 kt becoming southeast 10 to 20 kt. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 2 ft building to 1 to 3 ft.
Saturday..Southeast winds 10 to 20 kt increasing to 15 to 25 kt. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Sunday..South winds 10 to 20 kt becoming southwest. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
LMZ779


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Whiting, IN
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location: 41.9, -87.31     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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Fxus63 klot 191558
afdlot
area forecast discussion
national weather service chicago romeoville, il
1058 am cdt Wed jun 19 2019

Update
1041 am cdt
going forecast is in pretty good shape in the immediate term
here, although made some tweaks to temperature trends as a cold
front is now oozing southward along the lake and inland across
portions of northeastern illinois. Low stratus and fog is
occurring upstream across southeastern wisconsin behind this
frontal intrusion. At this time, think that any noticeably
reduced visibilities will remain confined to the immediate
lakeshore and nearshore waters this afternoon. Extended the
mention of fog across the lake and immediately inland through the
afternoon as a result. Think high temperatures have effectively
been met near and north of i-90 and have trended temperatures
either downwards or nearly steady here through the day. Farther to
the south, filtered sunshine should allow temperatures to rise
towards 80 degrees south of i-80.

A lead shortwave has zipped through the region, with another more
notable wave noted on water vapor loops immediately upstream in
northern missouri. Modest warm advection and some 700-600 mb fgen
has resulted in spotty light rain showers in a northeast-southwest
arcing band along and north of i-88 this morning. Overall, it
looks like most of the region should remain precip-free through
the rest of the morning, however, as we await the main lobe of
forcing with this next incoming system. Guidance has been
struggling to handle these subtle and small-scale features, and it
looks like at least some convective enhancement to vorticity may
be playing a role in the model variability. Based on latest radar
and satellite trends, it does appear as if a farther north
solution may pan out here this evening, and morning guidance has
begun to latch on to this potential. As a result, have expanded
and upped pops northward this evening and tonight across the
region.

With a fairly moist and destabilizing airmass in place and pwats
continuing to ride upwards today, the flash flood threat may be
increasing for our southernmost counties as the aforementioned
shortwave MCV combo intercepts this moist airmass. We may need to
consider a targeted flash flood watch for counties south of i-80
as this northward shift would bring the better dynamics into our
cwa this evening and overnight. The severe threat continues to
look pretty minimal, but some stronger wind gusts within precip-
loaded downdrafts will be possible across our south this afternoon
and into the early evening.

Carlaw

Short term
305 am cdt
through tonight...

two dry days, albeit with morning fog, are now in the rear view
mirror as three dry days in a row continue very hard to come by in
2019. Much of the area looks to experience showers at some time
today and tonight. The character of the rain will vary in
character some from north to south. More of scattered showers are
expected north of i-88 throughout today, while south is greeted
with more periodic showers this afternoon and night with embedded
scattered thunderstorms. The far southern CWA (along south of
kankakee river valley) remains the location where rainfall may see
the heavier rates and possesses a flood risk. That all said,
confidence on nitty-gritty specifics is lower than typical in the
first 24 hours owing to both this system still maturing and a
majority of model guidance struggling with ongoing trends.

Early morning satellite water vapor imagery indicates a
well-defined but compact mid-level wave across far northern
missouri. This is interacting with a lower to mid-level
baroclinic zone and associated cold front across southern
wisconsin into eastern iowa and resulting in some weak ascent and
frontogenesis. Showers in this area will continue to inch eastward
through the morning, likely becoming more scattered in nature
with 40-60 percent coverage into north central and parts of
northeast illinois. Elevated instability characterized by mucape
of 300-500 j kg provides forecast equilibrium level heights around
20k ft (near -20c) on rap soundings, so cannot rule out a few of
these showers having lightning.

The mid-level circulation will move over northern illinois during
the early to mid afternoon. An area of differential positive
vorticity advection in tandem with 850-700 mb warm and moist
advection should support an increase in shower coverage.

Convective allowing guidance generally supports this solution as
the most likely, but with a high amount of variance on how far
north. Observational trends on satellite and regional mosaic in
southern iowa early this morning would support going a little
further north than a guidance blend and have done so boosting
forecast shower coverage. The surface low reflection near 1003 mb
by afternoon is forecast to translate eastward across central
illinois, with still a buffer if further north in keeping low-
level effective instability south of the cwa. However, the
elevated instability with MUCAPE values around 1000 j kg
forecast will be induced northward. Expect there will be
scattered storms, maybe even a cluster or two of semi-organized
elevated storms in the southern cwa. Severe weather is mainly not
expected, but a strong more sustained storm or two is possible.

As a strong subtropical jet pushes eastward into the lower ohio
river valley by this evening, the system will respond in slightly
amplifying and slowing. This has been consistently forecast over
the past several days and its effect will likely mean showers
continuing tonight to be fairly solid across the southeast cwa
(east central il northwest in). It's tough to say specifics on
qpf, but the signal of deformation and deeper moisture convergence
and 2+ inches of QPF have diminished in our cwa. So feel
confidence is enough in not going with a flood watch at this
time, however some localized flooding certainly could materialize
in favorable areas especially the southern cwa, and rivers in this
area will likely be on the rise into late week.

For temperatures today in any one place, if it rains and how early
will have an impact. More so though will be thickening clouds and
increasing northeast winds thanks to the synoptic gradient and
possibly some lake enhanced push to the aforementioned upstream
front. This should result in temperatures cooling some this
afternoon especially in lake adjacent counties. Northeast winds
in lakeshore areas will likely peak 20 mph or a little higher at
times late day and evening. The onshore nature of this flow will
result in at least a moderate risk for rip currents at exposed
beaches and will need to watch trends if a higher wind northeast
wind speeds. Also there will be potential for low-level
saturation in this lake-land interface with the northeast flow
into an already moist low-level, and a period of fog is possible
by late afternoon. Confidence on this is very low for several
reasons, including that any showers would likely cause disruption
of the profile enough for any impacting fog.

Mtf

Long term
341 am cdt
Thursday through Tuesday...

by Thursday morning, much of the activity from Wednesday night will
have exited to the east by around daybreak, though there may still
be some lingering showers over nwrn indiana. As the main long-wave
trough moves east and weak upper ridging builds across the plains
and middle upper mississippi valley, the area will be under nwly
flow aloft through Thursday night. Low-level moisture may remain
sufficient to support deep enough diurnal cumulus to generate
isolated showers during the afternoon, but there should be a greater
chance for showers Thursday night as a shortwave tracks across the
apex of the ridge. The path of the shortwave looks to be across
southern wisconsin, so, while there should be enough forcing for
some showers, the better chances for any thunder will be in closer
proximity to the wave, north of the il wi border.

For Friday through early next week, the longer range guidance
continues to indicate an active period across the region. Upper
ridging will amplify Thursday through Friday night along the
mississippi river valley, with the ridge axis crossing the CWA on
Saturday. A return flow of warm moist unstable air from an
increasingly open gulf of mexico will spread across the area, under
this upper ridge. A series of shortwaves, convectively enhanced or
induced convective activity over the plains are expected to over-top
the ridge bringing periods of showers and thunderstorms to the
region. However, there is considerable uncertainty to the exact
timing of individual waves, particularly since the development of
these waves will be highly dependent on the development of the
upstream convection, which presents it's own difficulty. So, much of
the long term forecast period will sound like a broken record, with
daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. There will likely be
dry periods intermixed with the periods of showers and
thunderstorms, so the period will likely not be a total washout.

With temperatures expected to reach into the lower to middle 80s and
sfc dewpoints in the low 70s, and some models indicating a
relatively strong shortwave crossing the area Friday afternoon
evening, there will be some severe thunderstorm potential and spc
has highlighted the local area under a marginal risk for severe
weather in the latest day 3 convective outlook.

Aviation
For the 12z tafs...

the concerns for the chicago airport forecasts for today are:
- scattered light showers mid-morning through early afternoon,
likely increasing in coverage thereafter, with the higher
thunder coverage favored to remain south
- MVFR clouds becoming more likely by afternoon, with a chance for
ifr clouds off the lake today, with better potential later
tonight into Thursday morning
- northeast winds turning near due north late tonight into
Thursday morning
scattered showers across eastern iowa to southern wisconsin will
slowly move eastward. The heart of these should not reach chicago,
however some lighter showers in advance of these will likely move
over the metro. The primary upper disturbance of the weather
system will start to influence the area this afternoon into
tonight, resulting in shower coverage increasing across the
region. Rfd to ord will be on the northern edge of this, but do
think sustained showers will reach these airports. There is a
small chance for thunder, but the better setup is south of chicago
(does include the southern tracon area).

Clouds will gradually lower today, likely reaching MVFR at some
point this afternoon. There are indications that there are patchy
ifr ceilings over the lake and that this may expand. As winds
increase from the northeast into this afternoon, it's possible
some of this is dragged near chicago airports, but confidence is
quite low on that. Later tonight, the signal for ifr increases,
especially in the wake of heavy showers and before drier air moves
in, which looks to be late tonight into Thursday morning.

As for winds, a northeast direction will prevail with speeds
increasing into the afternoon. A near due north direction is
likely overnight and Thursday morning, though confidence is high
in sustained speeds of 12 kt or less.

Mtf

Lot watches warnings advisories
Il... None.

In... None.

Lm... None.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 14 mi43 min N 8.9 G 12 56°F 56°F
CNII2 16 mi43 min N 8.9 G 8.9 61°F 58°F
JAKI2 16 mi103 min NNE 6 G 8.9 61°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 17 mi55 min N 6 G 8.9 60°F 1008.7 hPa59°F
OKSI2 17 mi103 min ENE 6 G 8 60°F
FSTI2 19 mi103 min N 11 57°F
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 20 mi63 min NE 5.1 G 6 62°F 1009.1 hPa
45170 21 mi33 min NE 7.8 G 9.7 60°F 61°F1 ft59°F
45174 24 mi43 min N 12 G 14 1 ft1006.2 hPa
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 24 mi43 min NE 9.9 G 11 61°F 60°F
45026 - St. Joseph, MI 37 mi43 min NNW 12 G 14 63°F 64°F1 ft1008.6 hPa (-0.4)57°F
45186 41 mi43 min N 9.7 G 12 56°F 56°F1 ft
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 45 mi43 min N 8 G 11 66°F 1008.8 hPa (-1.4)
45187 48 mi43 min N 9.7 G 14 55°F 56°F1 ft

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Gary Regional Airport, IN20 mi58 minNNE 55.00 miFog/Mist66°F60°F83%1009.1 hPa

Wind History from GYY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--NE3NE34N6N5N4NE5------CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm------CalmCalmNE5
1 day agoN4N4N4N6N7N4N6N6NE6NE3NE6N4NE5NE3NE3CalmCalmN4N3CalmCalmNE3NE4Calm
2 days agoNW4NW7N9N10N6NW9NW12NW12N5--CalmN7NW5NW5N3N4N3NW6N4N5N5N5CalmN7

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Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (12,3,4,5)
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.