Thursday, December13, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Whiting, IN

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:08AMSunset 4:21PM Thursday December 13, 2018 1:42 PM CST (19:42 UTC) Moonrise 12:32PMMoonset 11:17PM Illumination 37% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ779 Lake Michigan From Michigan City In To St. Joseph Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Sheboygan To Port Washington Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Port Washington To North Point Light Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From North Point Light To Wind Point Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor Il 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Wilmette Harbor Il To Michigan City In 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Whitehall To Pentwater Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Grand Haven To Whitehall Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Holland To Grand Haven Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From South Haven To Holland Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From St. Joseph To South Haven Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- 848 Am Cst Thu Dec 13 2018 Sheboygan Wi To Pentwater Mi South...
Rest of today..South winds 5 to 15 kt becoming southeast 10 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 15 kt backing to northeast. Rain. Patchy fog overnight. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Friday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 kt becoming north. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Friday night..North winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Saturday..Northeast winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Saturday night..Northeast winds 10 to 20 kt diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Sunday..Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt becoming west 15 to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft building to 2 to 4 ft.
Monday..Northwest winds to 30 kt becoming north 15 to 25 kt. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
LMZ779 Expires:201812132230;;733042 FZUS63 KMKX 131448 GLFLM OPEN LAKE FORECAST for Lake Michigan National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 848 AM CST Thu Dec 13 2018 FOR WATERS BEYOND FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON Lake Michigan. Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure around 30.0 inches will move across the region today. A weak low pressure trough will then move across Lake Superior tonight. Meanwhile, low pressure of 29.8 inches will slowly move from northeast Texas to northwest Louisiana. The low will then move into the middle Mississippi River Valley Friday into Saturday. High pressure of 30.2 inches will move into the Western Great Lakes Region on Saturday. Another high pressure of 30.4 inches will move into the Central Plains on Sunday. LMZ080-669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878-132230-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Whiting, IN
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location: 41.9, -87.31     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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Fxus63 klot 131836
afdlot
area forecast discussion
national weather service chicago romeoville, il
1236 pm cst Thu dec 13 2018

Short term
239 am cst
through Friday...

quiet conditions are in place across northern illinois and
northwest indiana. We are surrounded on all sides by cloud cover
as the center of high pressure is largely on top of the area.

Resultant clear skies and light winds has led to some cool
temperatures along with patchy fog due to the lower dewpoint
depressions. Expect that to be the case to start the day with some
clouds starting to fill in from south to north.

The inverted surface trough axis out ahead of the deep upper low
over texas and ahead of the northern stream upper level trough
will expand over the local area this afternoon and tonight. Lower
level warm moist advection will spread some gulf moisture
northward, leading to an expanding shield of rain. Not out of the
question for some areas to get 0.5 inches of rain with this
system.

On the back side of the upper trough model guidance does bring in
some cooler air, and the question becomes does the precipitation
shield get shunted east before this cooler air arrive. Will call
it a slight chance of freezing rain getting into north central
illinois on the tail end late tonight into early Friday. Many of
the short term convective allowing models bring precip to an end
before this occurs. This will bear watching late tonight. Qpf
during this point would be low.

The modified cold frontal boundary will get hung up across the
area on Friday as the upper level flow in the midwest slows some
due to the cutoff low to the south and more active northern stream
winds across the upper great lakes. It appears lighter rain will
linger at least through the morning along and east of i-55. In
spite of increasing northeast winds the airmass is still
relatively mild, or at least more seasonal. Therefore we are
expecting little to no wintry precipitation on Friday.

Kmd

Long term
330 am cst
Friday night through Wednesday...

generally quiet and mild weather is in store as troughing off the
west coast up to and north of alaska has cut off cold air supply
into noam and will be in place through the period. This is known
as a positive east pacific oscillation (+epo) and is in marked
contrast to the generally negative epo we've had since mid
october, typified by positive mid-upper height anomalies (ridging)
in the northeast pacific alaska region. The southern CWA area to
possibly as far north as kankakee river in NW in may get grazed by
rain on Friday night into Saturday from the closed upper low that
will track south of the region. Recent 12km NAM runs are a
northerly outlier with this system vs. The globals which are much
farther south and keep most of the rain south of the cwa.

Considering the consistency of the globals, especially the ecmwf
and its ensembles, in past several model cycles, limited chance
pops to the far southern CWA (ford, iroquois, benton). If the
system and precip shield does end up taking a nam-like track,
likely warmer temps than forecast in overnight into Sat am will
preclude any freezing rain risk.

Much of the area should see a good deal of sunshine Saturday
between high pressure to the northwest and low pressure well to
the south. Highs in the lower to mid 40s are currently forecast,
but if mixing is deep enough, then upper 40s to around 50 readings
are possible based off climo of progged 925 mb temps. Slight
exception may be lakeshore areas, with rare meteorological winter
lake cooling due to brisk northeast winds and lake mi water temps
in mid 30s. Saturday night should have a fairly sharp drop off in
temps in outlying areas to the lower-mid 20s after the mild day
as high pressure moves overhead, with upper 20s to low 30s elsewhere.

Sunday has a good chance to be even milder than Saturday ahead of
a cold front, with steady westerly winds and likely a good amount
of sun. Climo of progged 925 mb temps and MOS guidance supports
highs in upper 40s to low 50s and have gone with mid to upper 40s
in the grids. There will be a slight cool down to merely above
normal 35-40 range on Monday and Tuesday behind the cold front
passage with expansive high pressure moving across the area. Gfs
is a bit more robust with the cool down than the ecmwf, so there
is potential for either a bit milder or cooler than official
forecast. The high pressure will shift off to the east coast on
Wednesday, with return flow southwest winds. High temps should in
response warm well into the 40s on Wednesday, though will need to
watch for return flow stratus, which is pretty common this type of
year.

It's not currently in the forecast grids, but with the above
normal height and thermal profile pattern in place, can't rule out
fog and stratus formation at times in the Monday-Tuesday timeframe
as well as strong inversions will form at night. Finally, signs
are pointing to a return of a -epo in the northeast pacific late
next week into the weekend before christmas, so expect a normal to
below normal temperature regime in time for christmas. As far as
chances for a white christmas... Stay tuned.

Castro

Aviation
For the 18z tafs...

primary forecast concern remains light rain arriving by early
this evening along with timing ifr and eventually lifr CIGS vis
and how long they will last.

Under light sely winds, conditions across NRN il nwrn in have been
quiet with the exception of some periods of MVFR vis in haze. An
area of fog and low stratus is gradually spreading north, with the
low CIGS vis as far north as a line from ksqi-kjot-kvpz at 18z.

The latest high res guidance, or any model guidance for that
matter, is not handling this very well. Had initially anticipated
that any cig vis restrictions at the terminals would be associated
with the rain overspreading the terminals by early this evening,
but will need to monitor these trends closely to see if the ifr
conditions may reach the terminals in advance of the rain.

Otherwise, the rain is expected to spread north across the
terminals early this evening. Lower end MVFR CIGS are expected to
arrive at or shortly before the onset of pcpn as top down
saturation occurs. Latest guidance continues to suggest a period
of lifr CIGS vis as unseasonably warm, moist air is associated
with this system. The main question remain as to the exact onset
time and duration of the lifr conditions. Have tried to target
the most likely timing with the 07-11z tempo group, but there is a
chance that the lower CIGS may linger longer into the early
morning hours, or even develop a little earlier than the period
defined in the tempo. Given the uncertainty in timing at this
point, did not want to go with an excessively long period of lifr
conditions in the current TAF update, but there is a chance that
later updates may require a longer duration of lifr conditions. At
this point, it appears that low CIGS may be the greatest concern,
but some of the more pessimistic guidance has been suggesting a
period of vis down to 1 2sm, but confidence is too low to drop vis
that low at this time. Ifr conditions are likely to persist into
tomorrow morning with somewhat slow improvement through the day.

Lot watches warnings advisories
Il... None.

In... None.

Lm... None.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 14 mi53 min SSE 8.9 G 9.9 39°F 33°F
JAKI2 16 mi103 min S 9.9 G 15 40°F
CNII2 16 mi28 min SSE 7 43°F 31°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 17 mi43 min SSE 7 G 11 39°F 1018.3 hPa (-0.0)34°F
FSTI2 19 mi103 min SE 19 37°F
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 20 mi63 min S 5.1 G 9.9 38°F 1019.6 hPa
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 24 mi43 min S 14 G 18 41°F 33°F
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 42 mi43 min S 12 G 16 39°F
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 45 mi43 min S 1.9 G 6 44°F 1019.3 hPa (-1.4)

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Gary Regional Airport, IN20 mi58 minSE 57.00 miOvercast41°F35°F81%1019.3 hPa

Wind History from GYY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW17W21W15
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W12W11W11W5SW3SW3SW3CalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmSE5SE8SE7SE5
1 day agoW9W8CalmCalmE5E5E4SE4E6SE4SE5SE5SE5SE8SE9
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2 days agoSW7SW8S7S7SW9SW6SW12SW6SW7SW6SW9SW6SW6SW5SW6S6SW7SW7SW7SW6SW10W9W7W10

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Chicago, IL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.