Thursday, October19, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Oswayo, PA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:24AMSunset 6:19PM Thursday October 19, 2017 10:28 AM EDT (14:28 UTC) Moonrise 6:06AMMoonset 5:46PM Illumination 1% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ041 Buffalo To Ripley Along Lake Erie- 1040 Pm Edt Wed Oct 18 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from 8 am edt Thursday through late Thursday night...
Overnight..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots. Clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 4 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Thursday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Becoming mainly clear. Waves 4 to 6 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Friday..West winds 10 knots or less. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Mainly clear. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers during the day, then showers likely Monday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
LEZ041 Expires:201710190945;;068856 FZUS51 KBUF 190240 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1040 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ040-041-190945-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oswayo , PA
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location: 41.91, -78.02     debug


Area Discussion for - State College, PA
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Fxus61 kctp 191400
afdctp
area forecast discussion
national weather service state college pa
1000 am edt Thu oct 19 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will remain over the eastern CONUS through the
upcoming weekend. Low pressure is likely to track west of the
state early next week with a trailing cold front coming through
pennsylvania Tuesday or early Wednesday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Pockets of thick fog hanging touch in kipt vicinity. Other than
this, a moisture challenged front is dropping into the northwest
mountains this morning, and will do little more than produce a
wind shift as the day progresses along with temporary increase
in mid level cloud as it passes.

A good amount of sunshine will push readings to near 70f by
this afternoon. Lack of significant forcing and deep moisture
support pops near zero.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Friday night
A slight increase in low level moisture and an active breeze in
vicinity of dying front should result in milder conditions
tonight in general across central pa. However, a weaker gradient
and drier air behind front should allow for better radiational
cooling and patchy fog across the northwest mountains Friday
morning. Min temps are expected to range from around 40f over
the northwest mountains, to the upper 40s across the southeast
part of the forecast area.

Anomalous upper ridge will expand northeast from the ohio valley
on Friday. Large scale subsidence with this feature should
result in another sunny day. Ensemble mean 925mb temps of around
14c should translate to MAX temps in the upper 60s and low 70s.

Long term Saturday through Wednesday
Both the 00z ecens and naefs maintain an anomalous upper level
ridge over the area through the weekend, which should ensure
fair weather with above average temperatures sat-sun. Ensemble
mean 925 850 temps support highs of 70-75f, while light wind and
dry air result in seasonably cool nights.

All medium range guidance indicating there will be a digging
northern stream trough early next week over the upper midwest
and miss valley that will eventually phase with closed low
lifting out of the southern states. Considerable model
difference exist with respect to timing track of this southern
stream shortwave, resulting in arrival of showers as early as
Monday or as late as tues pm. For now, have slowly ramped up the
chance of rain beginning late Monday. However, will reserve the
best chance of rain for Tuesday tues night, when bulk of med
range guidance track shortwave and attendant plume of gulf of
mexico moisture across the area. Early QPF estimates from
operational runs and GEFS indicate 1+ inch amounts are possible.

A period of near to below normal temperatures appears likely for
the second half of next week, as upper trough swings east into
the area. However, both GFS and ECMWF ensemble systems indicate
the thrust of the chilly air will be directed west of pa and
there are indications of rising heights milder weather across
the entire eastern CONUS toward the end of the month.

Aviation 14z Thursday through Monday
Radiational valley fog should dissipate by 15z giving way to
widespreadVFR. Surface wind gusts will reach the 15-20kt range
over the western 1 2 of the airspace from late this morning
through the afternoon. A dry cold front will push across the
airspace this evening and early tonight accompanied by a
directional wind shift from 220-260 to 270-330 degrees. High
pressure moves back over pa late tonight into Friday morning.

Outlook...

fri-sun... Patchy am valley fog otherwiseVFR.

Mon-tue...VFR to MVFR. Showers likely. Llws. Strong fropa.

Climate
Month-to-date, october 2017 is the warmest october on record at
harrisburg and williamsport.

Ctp watches warnings advisories
None.

Synopsis... Fitzgerald
near term... Devoir fitzgerald
short term... Fitzgerald
long term... Fitzgerald ceru
aviation... Devoir steinbugl
climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 77 mi40 min 60°F 1018.3 hPa
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 81 mi28 min SW 8 G 13 61°F 1019.3 hPa (+0.0)
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 81 mi40 min SSW 17 G 22 60°F 1017.5 hPa47°F

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wellsville, Wellsville Municipal Airport, NY14 mi92 minSW 710.00 miFair54°F39°F59%1021.7 hPa

Wind History from ELZ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW8SW5SW6W8SW7SW8SW7SW6S6S4S3S5S8SW8S10
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1 day agoW12
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2 days agoNW9
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NW7NW7NW5W4CalmW3W4CalmCalmCalmW3CalmSW4SW6SW6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for State College, PA (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station State College, PA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.