Sunday, March26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Oswayo, PA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:56AMSunset 7:28PM Sunday March 26, 2017 2:48 PM EDT (18:48 UTC) Moonrise 5:25AMMoonset 5:02PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ041 Buffalo To Ripley Along Lake Erie- 1039 Am Edt Sun Mar 26 2017
Rest of today..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers late. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming south. Periods of rain. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday night..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Showers likely overnight. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north. Rain showers likely during the day. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east. A chance of rain showers Thursday night. Waves 2 feet or less.
LEZ041 Expires:201703262115;;109985 FZUS51 KBUF 261439 NSHBUF NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1039 AM EDT SUN MAR 26 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE LEZ040-041-262115-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oswayo , PA
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location: 41.91, -78.02     debug


Area Discussion for - State College, PA
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Fxus61 kctp 261548
afdctp
area forecast discussion
national weather service state college pa
1148 am edt Sun mar 26 2017

Synopsis
A cool-moist easterly flow will make for a gray day over most of
the forecast area. A frontal system will move back into the
region overnight and remain nearly stationary before a cold
front finally ushers in cooler and drier air during the day
Tuesday.

The drier conditions will continue for mid week.

Near term /until 6 pm this evening/
The region remains firmly ensconced in a low level cold air
damming pattern. New high resolution goes-r 1 minute visual loop
shows the stable low clouds being passed over by the more
broken mid and high clouds. The only part of the area not locked
into the cold air damming is western warren country where some
sun is helping temperatures climb into the 50s.

Max temps today were weighted heavily toward the nam. The nam
limits highs to the 40s for many locations... And even holds
readings in the upper 30s across some of the higher terrain
throughout the NE corner of our cwa. This is in comparison to
the much warmer (by 8-10 deg f) national blend of models where
its GFS core lacks the boundary layer detail to adequately
capture the shallow cold airmass being channeled through the
deep valleys of central pa.

Have downplayed the chances for rain today as the nearest
organized precip remains well upstream. Hrrr shows the chances
for rain increasing later in the afternoon over the west.

Elsewhere other than some scattered drizzle, it will be just
cloudy and cool.

Short term /6 pm this evening through 6 am Monday/
An upper low an increased diff PVA will approach from the ohio
valley late in the day, bringing a renewed chance of showers
across the alleghenies and central mountains toward evening.

Can't rule out a rumble of thunder across the alleghenies,
although any convection will be weakening rapidly as it
encounters the shallow and very stable/cool airmass entrenched
throughout central pa.

Sfc warm front will try to lift NE across the CWA late tonight
as it's associated sfc low moves NE across the upper great
lakes. Widespread clouds and relatively mild temps will persist
overnight with lows in the 30s to low 40s.

Energy aloft and a core of 50 kt south-southwesterly accompanied
by a few bands of moderately strong low-mid level theta-e
convergence will bring periods of rain with one quarter to one
half inch of rain falling. The heaviest rainfall will be over
the western mountains where localized amounts of 0.75 to 1.00
inch area possible.

Long term /Monday through Saturday/
This period starts out with above normal heights over the
eastern us. Several lows weaken as they move into this blocked
flow and are forced to move to our west.

The first wave is comes overnight tonight into early Monday. It
has a good surge of moisture and one or more distinct ribbons
of llvl theta-e convergence that should result in some nearly
north-south oriented bands of briefly heavier showers. Thus
nearly all operational and blended/ensemble guidance shows a
very high probability of rain overnight tonight into Monday.

Most of the NCEP guidance shows the peak chance of rain from
0000-1200 utc Monday. Then things improve during the day Monday.

Our pops Monday morning may be too high, but they remain
consistent and well-collaborated with surrounding forecast
offices. GEFS implies little or no rain in our CWA much after
1800 utc Monday. Most rain before then would be in the east.

Our 850 hpa temperatures are above normal too so should be a
warm later afteroon and evening.

The second wave moving northeast and right up the ohio river
valley comes in overnight Monday into Tuesday. Another similar
surge of +2-3 sigma pwat air precedes the passage of this area
of low pressure and will once again result in a high probability
for showers, but generally light to locally moderate 12 hour
rainfall amounts.

The second event will push the warm moist air off to our south
Tuesday night into Wednesday. Chance of rain should drop
overnight Tuesday into Wednesday. Wednesday should be a
relatively good day as high pressure builds in from the
northwest. The dry air and high pressure are in all the guidance
implying Wednesday and Thursday should be relatively nice days.

High pressure, dry air, and normal to slightly below normal 850
hpa and 925 hpa temperatures imply near normal daytime highs.

Most of the 26/00-06z u.S. And int'l model guidance (and efs)
indicates more of southern... Shearing storm track for late in
the week... Thanks to a stronger and more wwd position of a deep
nrn stream vortex across the canadian maritimes.

The trend of the big model discrepancy for late this week and
this weekend (between the GFS and ec over the past several days)
has trended toward the GFS and its ens members with southern
stream energy and its moisture being prevented from amplifying
with an associated storm track to our west.

Rather, what we see is a shift of the primary southern stream
sfc low track to our south as the potent midweek southern stream
sfc/upper low (that will be trying to take the turn northeast
across the mid miss valley twd the great lakes) encounters great
resistance from the notably stronger wnw upper jet core
defining the northern stream that will be situated from the
upper glakes to the mid atl coast.

With this type of consensus storm track, pops will be somewhat
less for Friday and Saturday (compared to a heavily weighted
ec/ecens solution) and limited to mainly the southern half of pa
where some rain (or even an elevation-dependent rain/wet snow
mix) with expansive cooler and drier air north of pa.

Aviation /16z Sunday through Thursday/
A moist east/southeast low level flow will support widespread
low MVFR to lifr conditions through the period. Aside from
pockets of drizzle/mist/fog, the main period of rain should be
from 27/00z to 27/12z tapering off from west to east into Monday
morning.

Outlook...

mon-tue... Sub-vfr with periods of rain.

Wed... MVFR with chance of rain early in the morning, then
becomingVFR.

Thu... Increasing chance of rain late in the day into Thursday
night.

Ctp watches/warnings/advisories
None.

Synopsis... La corte/lambert
near term... La corte/lambert
short term... Lambert
long term... Grumm/lambert
aviation... La corte/steinbugl


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 77 mi49 min 61°F 1017.1 hPa (-2.3)
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 81 mi49 min SSE 12 G 17 1016.7 hPa (-2.8)
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 81 mi49 min SSE 8 G 9.9 55°F 1017.1 hPa (-2.3)44°F

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wellsville, Wellsville Municipal Airport, NY14 mi53 minSSE 15 G 216.00 miOvercast with Haze45°F39°F83%1022.7 hPa

Wind History from ELZ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE4SE6NE6NE7E4NE7E7SE9SE7SE7E7SE8SE7E7SE7SE7SE9SE8SE8SE10
G17
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1 day agoSW11
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W5W6W8SW8SW12
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W6N8NW5N7SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmN4N7N7N65
2 days ago53SW4S3SW3S4S5S6S76S10
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for State College, PA (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station State College, PA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.