Saturday, July22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Oswayo, PA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:50AMSunset 8:37PM Saturday July 22, 2017 6:49 AM EDT (10:49 UTC) Moonrise 4:04AMMoonset 7:03PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ041 Buffalo To Ripley Along Lake Erie- 434 Am Edt Sat Jul 22 2017
Today..South winds less than 10 knots becoming northeast and increasing to 15 to 20 knots this afternoon. A chance of showers late this morning. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms this afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less building to 2 to 4 feet.
Tonight..East winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the evening...then a chance of showers overnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..Southeast winds 10 knots or less becoming north. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning...then showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. Some Thunderstorms may produce gusty winds in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday night..North winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the evening... Then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday..West winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms during the day. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast. Becoming mainly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms Wednesday night. Waves 1 foot or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LEZ041 Expires:201707221515;;638273 FZUS51 KBUF 220834 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 434 AM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ040-041-221515-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oswayo , PA
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location: 41.91, -78.02     debug


Area Discussion for - State College, PA
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Fxus61 kctp 221001
afdctp
area forecast discussion
national weather service state college pa
601 am edt Sat jul 22 2017

Synopsis
A quasi-stationary frontal boundary will remain in the vicinity
of pennsylvania through Monday. High pressure will build
southeast into the region for the middle of next week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Main focus in the near term is MCS approaching from ohio. Expect
convection to weaken later this morning as it moves into pa,
where capes are much lower. In addition, model soundings
indicate low clouds will be slow to mix out over the laurel
highlands, which will hinder diurnal heating ahead of MCS and
reduce the severe threat.

Expect a progressively greater threat further east, where model
soundings and upstream satellite trends suggest there will be a
period of partly sunny skies filtered through some cirrus. The
resulting heating destabilization could allow convection to
re-intensify along outflow of remnant MCS over the south
central mountains and lower susq valley this afternoon. Latest
cams, including hrrr wrf-arw ncar ensemble, all time remnant mcs
into the laurel highlands around noon, then the susq valley by
mid afternoon. Model downdraft capes do look favorable for
damaging wind gusts across the lower susq valley, if convection
re-intensifies.

Not much of a severe weather threat over northern pa today,
where very little CAPE is progged north of quasi-stationary
boundary. Mainly cloudy skies and showers across the north
should cap temps to the upper 70s and low 80s over the northern
mountains, while partly sunny skies push readings to near 90f
across the lower susq valley.

Brightening skies in wake of MCS later this afternoon could set
the stage for another round of showers storms this evening.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Sunday
A second round of strong to severe convection is possible across
the southern half of the forecast area this evening, as strong
low level jet and plume of anomalous pwats works through the
area. Bulk of model data then indicates a dwindling chance of
showers storms from north to south overnight.

Favorable scenario for additional severe weather across central
pa Sunday afternoon, as the region will be within warm sector
south of anomalous surface low tracking eastward along the pa ny
border. Moderate capes and moderate westerly flow aloft,
combined with large scale forcing ahead of approaching upper
trough, should support widespread convection by afternoon.

Long term Sunday night through Friday
Some uncertainty continues with regards to timing of upper
trough passage early next week, but additional showers storms
appear likely Monday, especially over northern pa. A period of
dry and cooler weather appears very likely by midweek, as upper
trough axis finally passes east of pa and surface high builds
into the area.

Aviation 09z Saturday through Wednesday
Ifr cloud deck over far western porton of CWA encompassing duj-
jst along with some valley fog across the north mountains early
this morning, but arrival of cirrus shield will slow expansion
of fog heading toward sunrise. Patchy fog restrictions will
develop over the lower susq, though most locales there will
remainVFR.

After sunrise, fog in the SE half will burn off between 12-13z,
and in the NW under the cirrus deck will take into the mid
morning to return toVFR. Then attention turns to an approaching
warm frontal boundary which will be the catalyst for shower and
thunderstorm development around midday in the west spreading
eastward in the afternoon. Thunderstorm activity will be most
numerous south of i-80 with intermittent restrictions expected
into early evening
thunderstorm coverage will diminish but convection will linger
over the SE into the overnight. In addition, restrictions will
develop over NW half of area.

Another round of convection driven by an upper trough will
begin to move into western areas around sunrise sun, which will
spread across central pa during the day bringing another period
of intermittent restrictions.

Outlook
Sun... Am restrictions likely NW half. Tsra shra likely with
intermittent impacts.

Sun night... Cig restrictions likely. Scattered tsra shra.

Mon... Am restrictions likely. Scattered tsra.

Tue-wed... Patchy am fog. Otherwise no sig wx.

Ctp watches warnings advisories
None.

Synopsis... Fitzgerald
near term... Fitzgerald
short term... Fitzgerald
long term... Fitzgerald gartner
aviation... Rxr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 77 mi50 min 67°F 1012.4 hPa (+0.0)
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 81 mi50 min S 7 G 9.9 70°F 1012.7 hPa (-0.5)
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 81 mi50 min ESE 4.1 G 5.1 71°F 1012.1 hPa (+0.0)67°F

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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SW3

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wellsville, Wellsville Municipal Airport, NY14 mi54 minN 010.00 miFair65°F61°F87%1014.2 hPa

Wind History from ELZ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW3W4W5NW55N7NW8W4W8W11W11W5NW5NW5NW8W6W7W6W5CalmCalmCalmN3Calm
1 day agoW3W5SW5W7SW8SW10
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N6N4SE43CalmNE4NW6W5W6W6W4W6W6W7W4
2 days agoSW5CalmW6W6W7NW7W6W9W10NW10NW11NW10W10NW8W5W4W6W7W4W4W5W5W4W5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for State College, PA (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station State College, PA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.