Sunrise 5:59 AM   Sunset 8:09 PM Moonrise 2:24 AM   Moonset 12:41 PM

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LEZ041 Expires:202405021515;;478316 Fzus51 Kbuf 020805 Nshbuf
nearshore marine forecast national weather service buffalo ny 405 am edt Thu may 2 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez040-041-021515- buffalo to ripley along lake erie- 405 am edt Thu may 2 2024
Today - West winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Tonight - North winds less than 10 knots becoming east. Mainly clear in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Friday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast. Partly to mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less. Friday night - East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers likely overnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Saturday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south. Showers likely. Waves 2 feet or less. Sunday - South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west less than 10 knots. Showers likely during the day, then a chance of showers Sunday night. Waves 2 feet or less. Monday - Northwest winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

LEZ005
No data

FXUS61 KCTP 021946 AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 346 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

SYNOPSIS
-Warm/dry weather with lower humidity continues for Friday as high pressure slides to the northeast.

-Unsettled starting Friday night with occasional showers and thunderstorms. The heaviest rain will be Friday night in the west and Saturday in the southeast.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
Dry air covers the entire CWA, now with Td 33F at BFD and readings nearing 50F in the far SE. The uper high is right overhead and keeping even the high clouds at bay for now. There will be some high clouds move in from the west overnight, but not thick enough to affect the sfc temps. Expect mins in the m40s at BFD to the m50s in the SE as the wind goes calm in lots of places.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
Sfc ridge slides E/NE on Fri, and moist return/srly flow brings dewpoints back into the u50s W and l50s E. Stability dips over the western mtns with TSRA popping by mid-aftn in the highest elevation of the Laurels and in the ANF/far NW. These should multiply and spread to the east through the night. Some of these could be moving slowly and PWAT will be 1.25" over the west by sunset. FFG is 1-1.5"/1hr in the west, and slightly higher east. Thus, there is a MRGL risk for excessive rainfall over the western third/half of the CWA due to potential for heavy rainfall. Have increased PoPs to likelies and low-end catg for Fri night for the SWrn half of the CWA

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
-Noticeably cooler this weekend with periods of rain -Trending warmer/above climo but remaining unsettled next week

A slow moving frontal system combined with anomalous pwats will bring periods of rain to central PA this weekend. A few non- severe thunderstorms are possible, most likely along and west of the Alleghenies on the edge of warmer air surging into the upper Ohio Valley. The eastern slopes of the Alleghenies into the Susquehanna Valley will noticeably cooler with rain, low clouds and moist southeast flow. We trimmed max temps on Saturday due to the CAD pattern setup. Rain/showers continue on Sunday with highs recovering ~10F on the western and southern periphery of the CWA Despite the relatively high moisture available, overall stability should limit rain rates especially east of the mtns and preclude flooding risk. 48hr blended mean QPF ranges from 0.50-0.75" with spot amounts up to 1 inch possible.

The front stalls near or south of the MD line before lifting to the northeast (as a warm front) into midweek. The favors the best chance for rain the SW zones on Monday before POPs increase to 50-70% Tuesday into Wednesday. After a weekend cooldown, temps are forecast to trend warmer/back above climo into the 70s to low 80s next week.

AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
An upper ridge has crested overhead, keeping the sky clear. WNW sfc winds are gusting into the teens. Tranquil weather will persist through tonight with diminishing winds thanks to the high pressure aloft and to our NE. Expect a return/srly flow to develop in the morning on Friday. This will help generate more cu, and decrease stability, esp in the W. SHRA/TSRA are expected late aftn/evening Friday at JST and BFD. A warm front will rise into wrn PA on Friday, but stall out there until Sat when a cold front catches up and pushes it eastward. This will push the SHRA/TSRA to the east and across the rest of Central PA.
Widespread SHRA/TSRA are expected Friday night into Sunday. The heaviest rain will be Fri night over the W and Saturday aftn/evening in the SE. IFR restrictions will be possible Fri PM into Sunday.

Outlook...

Sat PM-Sun...Widespread restrictions across the central and western mountains due to low cigs. SHRA likely with a chance of TSRA.

Mon-Tues...AM fog/clouds poss. PM -SHRA possible areawide.

CLIMATE
Near-record highs are forecast for some locations in south central PA this afternoon. The daily records are listed below.

Harrisburg 88 in 1913 Altoona 87 in 1954 State College 86 in 1938

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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