Sunrise 5:59 AM   Sunset 8:09 PM Moonrise 2:24 AM   Moonset 12:41 PM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall

LEZ041 Expires:202405021515;;478316 Fzus51 Kbuf 020805 Nshbuf
nearshore marine forecast national weather service buffalo ny 405 am edt Thu may 2 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez040-041-021515- buffalo to ripley along lake erie- 405 am edt Thu may 2 2024
Today - West winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Tonight - North winds less than 10 knots becoming east. Mainly clear in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Friday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast. Partly to mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less. Friday night - East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers likely overnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Saturday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south. Showers likely. Waves 2 feet or less. Sunday - South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west less than 10 knots. Showers likely during the day, then a chance of showers Sunday night. Waves 2 feet or less. Monday - Northwest winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

LEZ005
No data

FXUS61 KCTP 021721 AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 121 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

SYNOPSIS
-Warm/dry weather with lower humidity continues for today and most or all of Friday

-Trending unsettled into the weekend with some periods of rain and thunderstorms Sat/Sun

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/
The only cu that have popped thus far are over far srn Somerset Co. Dewpoints are dropping across most of the area, but still holding in the u50s in the SE. Still expecting those to dip a little, too. Fcst rolling along nicely.

Prev...
Tranquil conditions with mainly clear skies cover the entire forecast area early this morning. Surface T/Td spreads of several deg F or more are negating any notable valley fog development.

Temps to start the day will be close to 10 degrees above climo in the warm advection regime ahead of a weak/dry cold front front that was sliding across the NW Mtns of PA at 09Z.

Daybreak readings will range from 45F to 50F throughout the higher rural valleys of Central PA, to the mid and upper 50s across the Lower Susq Valley.

The aforementioned weak cold front will bring primarily a few to several deg F drop in sfc dewpoints today, yielding another excellent vsby day with abundant sunshine. This frontal boundary will settle just south of the Mason Dixon Line by this afternoon as the associated shortwave passes off the New England Coast and upper level ridging sharpens and crests over PA tonight.

Vertical mixing of model 850mb temps in the 12-14C range will equate to highs ranging from the mid 70s over the N Mtns, to the mid 80s in the Southern Valleys, which are 10-15 degrees higher than what we normally see for early May.

A nearly east/west band of low level convergence and higher humidity is depicted via the latest HRRR near the Mason/Dixon line this afternoon yielding MU CAPE values of a few to several hundred j/kg.

A weak capping inversion and very dry air above 800mb suggests any convection is very unlikely there.

The very dry air above the weak inversion aloft supports undercutting NBM dewpoints this afternoon over the central and northern part of the forecast area. We continued to employ a blend of the NBM and the much lower numbers obtained from the MixedDewpoint Tool.

SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
Sfc and upper level ridge of high pressure will remain over PA for most or all of the daylight hours Friday. Clouds will increase across the Western part of the CWA later Friday afternoon, bringing the chance of a few showers near and to the west of the RT 219 corridor after 21Z Friday.

Southeasterly flow will develop across much of the CWA Friday as the center of sfc high pressure exits stage right off the Mid Atlantic Coast. This will lead to cooler daytime highs - mainly in the mid to upper 70s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
-Noticeably cooler this weekend with periods of rain -Trending warmer/above climo but remaining unsettled next week

A slow moving frontal system combined with anomalous pwats will bring periods of rain to central PA this weekend. A few non- severe thunderstorms are possible, most likely along and west of the Alleghenies on the edge of warmer air surging into the upper Ohio Valley. The eastern slopes of the Alleghenies into the Susquehanna Valley will noticeably cooler with rain, low clouds and moist southeast flow. We trimmed max temps on Saturday due to the CAD pattern setup. Rain/showers continue on Sunday with highs recovering ~10F on the western and southern periphery of the CWA Despite the relatively high moisture available, overall stability should limit rain rates especially east of the mtns and preclude flooding risk. 48hr blended mean QPF ranges from 0.50-0.75" with spot amounts up to 1 inch possible.

The front stalls near or south of the MD line before lifting to the northeast (as a warm front) into midweek. The favors the best chance for rain the SW zones on Monday before POPs increase to 50-70% Tuesday into Wednesday. After a weekend cooldown, temps are forecast to trend warmer/back above climo into the 70s to low 80s next week.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A weak area of low pressure passing to our north has pushed a weak/dry cold front into srn PA. The front shouldn't move too much more to the south today. An upper ridge will crest overhead, keeping the sky clear, except for a few cu, mainly in the Laurels. WNW sfc winds are already gusting into the teens.

Tranquil weather will persist through tonight with diminishing winds thanks to the high pressure aloft and to our NE. Expect a return/srly flow to develop in the morning on Friday. This will help generate more cu, and decrease stability, esp in the W.
SHRA/TSRA are expected late aftn/evening Friday at JST and BFD.
A warm front will rise into wrn PA on Friday, but stall out there until Sat when a cold front catches up and pushes it eastward. This will push the SHRA/TSRA to the east and across the rest of Central PA. Widespread SHRA/TSRA are expected Friday night into Sunday. The heaviest rain will be Fri night over the W and Saturday aftn/evening in the SE. IFR restrictions will be possible Fri PM into Sunday.

Outlook...

Sat PM-Sun...Widespread restrictions across the central and western mountains due to low cigs. SHRA likely with a chance of TSRA.

Mon-Tues...AM fog/clouds poss. PM -SHRA possible areawide.

CLIMATE
Near-record highs are forecast for some locations in south central PA this afternoon. The daily records are listed below.

Harrisburg 88 in 1913 Altoona 87 in 1954 State College 86 in 1938

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

State College, PA,