Thursday, February21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Oswayo, PA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:53AMSunset 5:48PM Thursday February 21, 2019 5:49 PM EST (22:49 UTC) Moonrise 8:33PMMoonset 8:28AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ041 Expires:201902211615;;272457 Fzus51 Kbuf 210849 Nshbuf Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 349 Am Est Thu Feb 21 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Lez040-041-211615- Buffalo To Ripley Along Lake Erie- 349 Am Est Thu Feb 21 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening...
Today..West winds to 30 knots. Mostly cloudy this morning, then becoming partly Sunny. The lake is mostly ice covered.
Tonight..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 5 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy.
Friday..West winds less than 10 knots. Becoming mostly Sunny.
Friday night..Light and variable winds becoming east 5 to 10 knots. Mainly clear in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy.
Saturday..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south 15 to 20 knots. Rain Saturday night.
Sunday..Southwest gales to 35 knots becoming west to 40 knots. Rain during the day, then snow and rain showers likely Sunday night.
Monday..West gales to 35 knots becoming northwest and diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers during the day. Waves omitted due to the lake being mostly ice covered.
LEZ041


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oswayo , PA
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location: 41.91, -78.02     debug


Area Discussion for - State College, PA
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Fxus61 kctp 212152
afdctp
area forecast discussion
national weather service state college pa
452 pm est Thu feb 21 2019

Synopsis
High pressure builds east into pennsylvania from the issippi
valley over the next two days. A strengthening storm will track
north through the great lakes this weekend, with a trailing cold
front coming through pennsylvania Sunday.

Near term until 6 am Friday morning
A drier westerly flow has brought brightening skies and breezy
but milder conditions to the region this afternoon. Melting and
evaporating occurring as a result. Just a few stratocu evident
in the visible imagery over the laurel highlands but most areas
enjoying nearly full sunshine with temperatures ranging mostly
through the 40s, except for upper 30s far north.

Sfc high pressure will build over lower mi tonight with dry cool
conditions prevailing over pa, while a flat wave of lower
pressure pushes moisture through the virginias and to the mid
atlantic coastline by 12z fri. Expect a fair amount of mid and
high cloud to stream overhead, especially over the southern
tier. Mins will be seasonable with lows ranging from near 20f
northwest to the upper 20s southeast.

Short term 6 am Friday morning through 6 pm Friday
Fair weather continues Friday as high pressure and associated
low pwat air mass build over the region. Still a fair amount of
cirrus streams across the region along axis of 120kt jet
separating anomalous upper ridge over the caribbean and a deep
trough over the western conus. Thickest clouds will again be
over the south as flat wave exits off the mid atlantic coast.

A cooler afternoon expected, as mixing with be shallower
beneath surface high, and am remaining close to superblend nbm
highs in the upper 30s and low 40s.

Long term Friday night through Thursday
Models typically do a better job with tracking and placing high
pressure systems and this is again the case as a signifcant ridge
will be negatively tilted across the great lakes and will continue
to be pushed to the north east this weekend.

A small but strong upper level low will undercut this ridge,
driving a sfc system through the mid atlantic region this weekend.

As has been the trend, warm air advection will track ahead of the
system. 850 mb temperatures by 00z Sunday will be in the 3-6c range.

With daytime temperatures looking to be in the upper 30s to low 40s,
and dewpoints in the low 30s, there seems to be less of a chance for
fzra however there could be localized pockets mainly over the higher
terrain of the appalachians. The trend aloft and and the surface
continues to be warm, so rain will be dominate precipitation type.

Focus then shifts toward the potential of strong winds Sunday
pm, as trailing cold front sweeps through the area, allowing
strong winds associated with grt lks storm to mix to ground
level. This scenario of a powerful low passing north of pa fits
the pattern we see with our strongest winds across central pa
and a quick look at model 850mb winds suggest >50kt gusts are
possible. Have introduced the possibility of strong winds in the
hwo.

As the temperatures continue to warm, expect a likely surge to
springlike readings Sunday. The shallow cool air should mix out then
there should be a return to seasonal readings for next week. Med
range guidance points toward dry weather early next week, as high
pressure builds across the region. However, model spread and
forecast uncertainty ramps up by the middle of next week concerning
the track, timing and strength of a fast moving shortwave
approaching from the midwest. Given when the instability is for the
storm next midweek, have changed precip type to mostly snow.

Aviation 22z Thursday through Tuesday
A mild afternoon outside, with just a few high clds.

Late afternoon TAF updates sent.

Vfr will prevail through Saturday with a drier and breezy west
northwest wind (270-300 degrees gusting 20-25kts) throughout the
airspace slackening tonight. Isold MVFR CIGS possible across
the northwest airspace tonight early Friday.

Outlook...

sat... Trending MVFR to ifr with rain. A brief wintry mix
possible.

Sun... Windy with showers. Some snow showers possible late
across the northwest.

Monday... Windy. MainlyVFR. Still a chance of snow showers
across the northwest.

Tue... MainlyVFR. Chc of snow late across the northwest.

Ctp watches warnings advisories
None.

Synopsis... Devoir
near term... Devoir
short term... Devoir
long term... Fitzgerald ceru
aviation... Devoir martin


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 77 mi56 min 33°F 1019.1 hPa
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 81 mi50 min SW 19 G 23 33°F 32°F1019.6 hPa (+1.5)22°F
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 81 mi50 min W 24 G 27 34°F 1020.1 hPa (+2.1)

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wellsville, Wellsville Municipal Airport, NY14 mi54 minW 16 G 2610.00 miFair37°F23°F57%1018.3 hPa

Wind History from ELZ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS15
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1 day agoW4NW3NW3CalmSE3CalmCalmSE3SE3SE4E4SE4CalmSE3SE8S9S10
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2 days agoN13W11NW15
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NW11NW10NW12NW13NW12NW10NW9NW6NW6W5W6W5NW7NW6NW10NW5W10NW10NW5W7W5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for State College, PA (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station State College, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.