Saturday, November17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Oswayo, PA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:59AMSunset 4:45PM Saturday November 17, 2018 6:46 AM EST (11:46 UTC) Moonrise 2:21PMMoonset 12:50AM Illumination 70% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ041 Buffalo To Ripley Along Lake Erie- 331 Am Est Sat Nov 17 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through this afternoon...
Today..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Scattered rain showers early. Scattered rain showers early this afternoon, then scattered rain and snow showers late. Waves 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Tonight..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northeast less than 10 knots. Scattered snow and rain showers in the evening, then scattered snow showers overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.
Sunday..Southeast winds 10 knots or less becoming south. A chance of snow showers. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. A chance of snow showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west. Snow showers likely Monday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. Snow showers likely during the day, then a chance of snow showers Tuesday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest and diminishing to 5 to 10 knots. A chance of snow showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
LEZ041 Expires:201811171600;;430664 FZUS51 KBUF 170837 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 331 AM EST Sat Nov 17 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ040-041-171600-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oswayo , PA
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location: 41.91, -78.02     debug


Area Discussion for - State College, PA
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Fxus61 kctp 171136
afdctp
area forecast discussion
national weather service state college pa
636 am est Sat nov 17 2018

Synopsis
Several weak disturbances embedded in the long wave trough over
the eastern us will keep the mention of some light
precipitation in the forecast through at least the middle of
next week. Colder than normal temperatures are expected as well.

Near term through tonight
Patchy freezing drizzle and areas of fog continue to impact
parts of the alleghenies from the laurels to the NW mountains.

With temperatures hovering around or just below freezing, there
is probably some measure of riming from freezing fog going on as
well.

Westerly upslope flow and subsidence inversion will keep the
stratus in place, and expect areas of fog and patchy freezing
drizzle over the ridges of the laurel highlands, west central
and northwest mountains to continue into the pre dawn hours.

Winter weather advisory remains in effect until 13z for the
aforementioned areas. Untreated roads will be slippery along
with areas of reduced visibility.

A rather gloomy day is in store for most of the region as weak
cyclonic-upslope flow keeps the low level moisture locked in
over central pa. The best chance for brightening skies will be
over the SE where just enough downsloping flow is possible to
allow some peeks of sun, but forecast soundings are not
optimistic about significant clearing. Western and northern
elevations could see some light snow showers or flurries, but
no real accums are expected.

Clouds and small chances for some snows showers over the NW will
continue overnight. Lows in the 20s will average several degrees
below what mid november lows should be.

Short term Sunday
Models agree in taking a fast moving low amplitude shortwave
into the region Sunday, with the northern half of the forecast
area highlighted with the chance of some light precipitation.

Qpf is expected to be about .10" or less on average with a
coating to an inch of snow possible in a few locations.

Temperatures rising into the mid and upper 30s over the SRN 2 3
or so of the area will work to limit snow accums on road
surfaces. Northern areas where temps will stay closer to
freezing could see untreated roads get slippery.

Long term Sunday night through Friday
A large upper level low will be located over hudson's bay
canada. This system will dominate the pattern over the eastern
us with several weak waves embedded in the broad cyclonic flow
advertised to bring periods of light precip to the area through
the middle of next week. Timing and separation of systems in
such fast flow is difficult so forecast confidence on details is
relatively low.

The first system is a slow moving front that the models use to
ripple several weak surface waves along, keeping the chance for
some light snow or a mix of rain and snow in the forecast into
Monday night.

After a very brief break Tuesday, a new cold front is made to
pass through the area later Tuesday and Tuesday night, with
drier weather finally expected to arrive for mid week through
thanksgiving day into Friday.

Aviation 12z Saturday through Wednesday
12z tafs sent.

Minor adjustments made. Conditions starting to improve
in some spots.

Low clouds and gusty winds will be across much of the area
today, given a west to northwest flow of air across the great
lakes.

Outlook
Sun... Low CIGS possible central mountains. Light snow possible
northern pa.

Mon... Low CIGS possible, especially in the morning.

Tue... Am low CIGS possible W mtns.

Wed... No sig wx expected.

Climate
A record snowfall of 0.5 inches was set at harrisburg pa
yesterday (Friday). This broke the old record of a trace of
snow set in 1985. That made the two day storm total 8.8".

A record snowfall of 2.4 inches was set at williamsport pa
yesterday (Friday). This broke the old record of 0.4 inches set
in 1997. That made the two day storm total 10.6".

Ctp watches warnings advisories
Winter weather advisory until 8 am est this morning for paz004-
005-010-011-017-024-033.

Synopsis... La corte
near term... La corte
short term... La corte
long term... La corte
aviation... Martin
climate... La corte


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 77 mi35 min 41°F 1018.9 hPa
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 81 mi47 min W 24 G 30 41°F 1018.6 hPa (+2.3)
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 81 mi29 min W 19 G 22 40°F 42°F1019.2 hPa23°F

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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NE8
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G10

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wellsville, Wellsville Municipal Airport, NY14 mi51 minW 910.00 miOvercast35°F30°F85%1019.6 hPa

Wind History from ELZ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW8W7W14
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1 day agoSE7SE9
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SE7SE7SE10
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SE8SE7E6E3E3CalmW7W5CalmW4W6
2 days ago--W11NW11NW8NW11
G19
NW12
G18
N9NW9
G16
NW12
G22
NW7N3NW3W4CalmCalmCalmCalmSE4SE5SE6SE5SE9SE8SE9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for State College, PA (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station State College, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.