Monday, November20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Monroe, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:29AMSunset 5:09PM Monday November 20, 2017 10:37 AM EST (15:37 UTC) Moonrise 9:12AMMoonset 7:03PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ444 Michigan Waters Of Lake Erie From Detroit River To North Cape Mi- 1002 Pm Edt Sat Jul 22 2017
Rest of tonight..West winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the north early in the morning. Partly cloudy. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Light and variable winds. Mostly cloudy early in the morning...then partly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the late morning and afternoon. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the west in the late evening and overnight. Mostly clear. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the evening...then a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the late evening and early morning. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Monday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves around 2 feet or less. SEe lake erie open lake forecast for days 3 through 5. The water temperature at belle isle is 77.4 degrees.
LEZ444 Expires:201707230900;;677433 FZUS63 KDTX 230203 GLFSC GLFLH Open Lake Forecast for Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1001 PM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017 For waters beyond five nautical miles off shore on Lake Huron Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...A broad area of low pressure...29.70 inches...will slowly track across Lower Michigan through Sunday. The system will exit to the east Sunday night, pulling a cold front through the central Great Lakes late Sunday and Sunday night. High pressure...30.20 inches...then builds into the area Monday and Tuesday. LEZ444-230900-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Monroe, MI
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location: 41.91, -83.39     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 201045
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
545 am est Mon nov 20 2017

Aviation
Moderate southwesterly flow will persist through the forecast
period. Wind gusts to 25 knots will emerge during the afternoon
hours as diurnal mixing builds the boundary layer into higher
momentum just off the surface. After sunset, the winds in the 1-2kft
layer will increase dramatically (approaching 60kt at 2kft).

Therefore, likely a pronounced speed shear layer starting around
1kft. No restrictions due to clouds or reduced visibility.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.

Prev discussion
Issued at 236 am est Mon nov 20 2017
discussion...

as alaska NW canada serve as the primary conduit of energy into the
consolidating hudson bay vortex, baroclinic westerlies will
strengthen and contract north over the next several days. During
this time, multiple mid-level impulses will track over or north of
the area with high confidence in a mean storm track north of lake
superior for the remainder of the week. Effects in southeast
michigan will be high variability in temperatures centered about
seasonal average values as a series of low impact cold front sweep
across the area Tuesday into next week. The first shortwave in this
prolonged sequence is evident over northwest canada digging into
alberta early this morning. Downstream ridging will translate across
southeast michigan forcing return flow to get underway in earnest as
high pressure slips east. 850mb temperatures are modeled to rebound
toward 5c by this evening after being below -10c 24 hours prior.

Gusty southwest gradient wind and mostly sunny skies will only help
matters as temperatures moderate by about 10 degrees compared to
yesterday, or low to mid 40s. The gradient will be sufficiently
strong to maintain a mechanically mixed boundary layer through
tonight, suggesting siding with the warmer guidance in the mid to
upper 30s. Airmass exchange will already be complete by Tuesday
raising potential high temps a few degrees further, toward 50
degrees, increasing high clouds limiting the potential to go any
higher. Once again leaned toward the warmer guidance; in this case
mos and raw ECMWF output - some members of the nwp suite actually
have snowpack and thus keep temps far too low. Cold FROPA tues aftn
will be rather uneventful as the time window for good dynamic
forcing will be just be a couple of hours as the developing surface
front sweeps through coincident with strongly convergent mid-level
forcing aloft. Chc pops remain appropriate with just a
narrow transient band of light rain transitioning to light non-
accumulating snow expected. Cold advection will dump 850mb temps
back toward -10c for Wednesday before the pattern approximately
repeats itself and a moderating trend back into the 40s to possibly
50 degrees gets underway for the second half of the week. Long range
modeling continues to suggest a couple more cold shots before
downstream effects of a pac jet extension forces the polar low to
retreat suggesting a period of milder wx to close out the final days
of the month.

Marine...

winds will remain fresh today, as the region is sandwiched between
high pressure slipping through to the south and an approaching low
pressure system from the west. The current westerly flow will back
to southwesterly early in the day. Expectations are for a corridor
of higher speeds emerging from saginaw bay into the central body of
lake huron, with sustained winds increasing to near 30 knots. Near
surface stability will be increasing as warmer air washes across the
region. Therefore, wind gust potential will be limited to lower-end
gale gusts - mainly constrained to the central half of lake huron
(including outer saginaw bay). Elsewhere, the fresh flow will
support small craft headlines. In the wake of the surface cold front
on Tuesday, the flow will veer to northwesterly with the strongest
flow confined to the northern half of lake huron - again gusts in
the 35-40 knot range. Significant waves on lake huron will peak
around 10 feet during the gale event with occasional waves exceeding
15 feet in the central basin. Otherwise, the near surface will
destabilize behind the cold front, reintroducing lake-effect showers
across the entire basin.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... Gale warning from 7 pm this evening to 4 am est Tuesday for lhz421-
462.

Small craft advisory from 7 pm this evening to 1 pm est Wednesday
for lhz441.

Small craft advisory from 7 pm this evening to 4 pm est Tuesday for
lhz442-443.

Gale warning from 10 am to 10 pm est Tuesday for lhz361.

Gale warning from 7 pm this evening to 10 am est Tuesday for lhz363.

Gale warning from 7 pm this evening to 4 am est Wednesday for
lhz362.

Small craft advisory from 7 pm this evening to 10 am est Tuesday
for lhz422.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Mann
discussion... Jvc
marine... ... .Mann
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 12 mi48 min SSW 23 G 25 35°F
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 16 mi56 min SW 11 G 20
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH 35 mi38 min SSW 17 G 21 35°F 1019.3 hPa (-0.3)
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH 43 mi50 min SSW 8.9 G 16 34°F 1019.4 hPa25°F
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 47 mi38 min SW 9.9 G 16 36°F 1016.9 hPa (-0.7)

Wind History for Toledo, OH
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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W15
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Monroe, Custer Airport, MI3 mi65 minSW 910.00 miFair36°F22°F58%1017.6 hPa
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI18 mi46 minSW 810.00 miFair37°F24°F61%1016.9 hPa
Lambertville, Toledo Suburban Airport, MI19 mi44 minSSW 910.00 miFair39°F23°F54%1017.6 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI22 mi45 minSW 1510.00 miPartly Cloudy36°F23°F59%1017.7 hPa
Detroit, Willow Run Airport, MI23 mi45 minSW 1610.00 miFair36°F25°F64%1017.2 hPa

Wind History from TTF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW11
G18
W13
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W9
G19
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G23
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W11
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W10W12
G17
W9
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G20
W7W6SW7W9SW9
G17
W11
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SW9SW10SW8SW6SW6SW6SW9SW10
G16
1 day agoS4CalmE5N4N8N10
G14
N9N14
G17
N13
G21
NW12
G20
NW13
G19
NW12
G21
NW13
G22
NW11
G22
NW13
G20
NW11
G15
NW16
G26
NW11
G19
NW13
G21
NW10
G16
NW10
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W9W10W11
2 days agoS10
G15
SE10SE8
G14
SE9SE7SE6SE5SE3SE6S9SE8S8
G14
SE10S5S8
G15
S7S7SE3CalmS4S8S4S6S5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.