Thursday, March23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Monroe, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:28AMSunset 7:51PM Thursday March 23, 2017 12:19 PM EDT (16:19 UTC) Moonrise 3:54AMMoonset 2:10PM Illumination 16% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ444 Michigan Waters Of Lake Erie From Detroit River To North Cape Mi- 1001 Pm Edt Wed Mar 22 2017
Rest of tonight..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Clear. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Thursday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny in the morning becoming partly cloudy. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Thursday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Light rain likely...mainly after midnight. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Friday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Mostly cloudy until late afternoon becoming partly cloudy. Light rain likely early in the morning. Waves 1 to 3 feet. SEe lake erie open lake forecast for days 3 through 5. The water temperature at belle isle is 35.0 degrees.
LEZ444 Expires:201703230915;;928573 FZUS53 KDTX 230201 NSHDTX NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST FOR MICHIGAN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 1001 PM EDT WED MAR 22 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE WAVES ARE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT - THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM. OCCASIONAL WAVE HEIGHT IS THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/10 OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM. LEZ444-230915-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Monroe, MI
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location: 41.91, -83.39     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 231141
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
741 am edt Thu mar 23 2017

Aviation
Dry arctic air mass will retreat to the east coast today as surface
high pressure centers over the mid atlantic. Strong warm air
advection is forecasted to wash across the southeastern michigan
late tonight in response to low pressure organizing over the central
and southern great plains. From this vantage point, the forcing for
any longer duration rain event remains low. The reasons include:
strongly anticylonic flow over southeastern michigan complete with
localized ava rolling through area in addition to the longwave ridge
axis holding over the central great lakes. Therefore, just a
moderate confidence level in any larger coverage of rain showers
with a shorter duration of 3 hours or less. Uncertainty continues
with regards to amount of low level moistening particularly for
detroit terminals. With the burgeoning warm sector maintained the
low level wind shear group.

For dtw... High cloud will thicken today but dry air keep conditions
vfr with CIGS greater than 7000 ft agl. Low confidence exists in
degree of lower troposphere saturation. Continued a low base MVFR
cig after 08z but it is certainly plausible for prevailing to remain
well above that.

//dtw threshold probabilities...

* medium in CIGS falling below 5000 ft after 04z Thursday night.

Prev discussion
Issued at 337 am edt Thu mar 23 2017
discussion...

large arctic high pressure is centered just east of the state this
morning keeping the coldest and driest air also just to the east.

This is resulting in lows this morning mostly upper teen and low 20s
as opposed to colder as advertised earlier. As this high continues
to slide eastward return flow will bring WAA today. The day will
start with plenty sunshine before mid and high level clouds thicken
throughout the day ahead of approaching warm front. Highs today will
do about ten degrees higher then yesterday making it to the low to
mid 40s. Lows tonight will be reached early on in the mid 30s before
slowly rising as warm front lifts quickly through. Not much forcing
with this front other then moderate isentropic lift in the 850-600mb
level resulting in a band of showers that should last for a couple of
hours. Instability is near nil so do not expect any thunder. By
sunrise Friday the warm front should be positioned across the saginaw
valley and thumb where it may lift a bit more north before stalling.

This will allow for very mild air to infiltrate the rest of the
forecast area with highs reaching the 60s most locations with upper
60s near the ohio border. Dry air in the mid levels should cap off
moist low level resulting in mostly cloudy day and dry for the most
part with lack of any forcing. Exception will be continued shower
across the north closer to stalled front. If any significant breaks
can be made in the clouds 70 could easily be reached across the
south.

Closed low system centered over oklahoma will gradually weaken as it
drifts towards lower michigan over the weekend. This will continue
moist mild flow into the state. Another large arctic high will move
across eastern canada forcing the stalled front across central lower
michigan to slowly move back southward where it will stay throughout
the weekend providing focus for continued shower activity. The whole
muddled mess should exit the area for Monday. This will be quickly
follow by another wave exiting the plains which will bring another
chance for showers Monday night and early Tuesday.

Marine...

large area of high pressure will build southeastward into the mid
atlantic today. As the surface high pushes southeastward, winds will
switch to the southeast and steadily increase. In response, a warm
front will become increasingly organized over the region. The warm
air streaming over the cold lakes is expected to promote stable low
level profiles, limiting wind speeds over lake huron to 25 to 30
knots. Winds will diminish on Friday as warm front stalls over lake
huron, and then sinks south as a cold front Friday night into
Saturday, resulting in increasing easterly flow as high pressure
builds over ontario, leading to long duration easterly flow over the
weekend.

Dtx watches/warnings/advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Cb
discussion... Drc
marine... ... .Cb
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 12 mi79 min E 14 G 16 29°F
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 16 mi49 min E 11 G 14 32°F 1033.1 hPa12°F
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH 35 mi79 min ESE 13 G 14 29°F 1035.6 hPa (+0.0)
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH 43 mi49 min E 9.9 G 13 30°F 17°F
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 47 mi79 min SE 8.9 G 12 29°F 1035.6 hPa (+0.4)

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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NE4
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Monroe, Custer Airport, MI3 mi45 minESE 9 G 1710.00 miFair35°F21°F58%1034.2 hPa
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI18 mi27 minSSE 810.00 miFair34°F19°F57%1033.9 hPa
Lambertville, Toledo Suburban Airport, MI19 mi25 minE 8 G 1410.00 miFair37°F14°F39%1032.8 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI22 mi26 minSE 810.00 miMostly Cloudy35°F18°F50%1035.1 hPa
Detroit, Willow Run Airport, MI23 mi26 minSE 1310.00 miFair36°F19°F50%1034.2 hPa

Wind History from TTF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN9NE5NE6E6SE8SE8SE8SE6SE7SE4SE4E5SE4S4SE3E3CalmE4SE5SE5SE4SW4SE9SE11
1 day agoW6W14
G23
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G26
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W12NW16
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N14
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N7N7N8N11
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2 days agoSE3SE5SE4SE5S4CalmN3N6N3SE4W5CalmCalmNW4NW3NW3CalmCalmW3NW5NW4NW3N5N4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.