Sunday, August20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Monroe, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:46AMSunset 8:26PM Sunday August 20, 2017 8:56 PM EDT (00:56 UTC) Moonrise 4:22AMMoonset 6:51PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ444 Michigan Waters Of Lake Erie From Detroit River To North Cape Mi- 1002 Pm Edt Sat Jul 22 2017
Rest of tonight..West winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the north early in the morning. Partly cloudy. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Light and variable winds. Mostly cloudy early in the morning...then partly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the late morning and afternoon. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the west in the late evening and overnight. Mostly clear. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the evening...then a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the late evening and early morning. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Monday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves around 2 feet or less. SEe lake erie open lake forecast for days 3 through 5. The water temperature at belle isle is 77.4 degrees.
LEZ444 Expires:201707230900;;229447 FZUS63 KDTX 230203 GLFSC GLFLH Open Lake Forecast for Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1001 PM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017 For waters beyond five nautical miles off shore on Lake Huron Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...A broad area of low pressure...29.70 inches...will slowly track across Lower Michigan through Sunday. The system will exit to the east Sunday night, pulling a cold front through the central Great Lakes late Sunday and Sunday night. High pressure...30.20 inches...then builds into the area Monday and Tuesday. LEZ444-230900-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Monroe, MI
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location: 41.91, -83.39     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 202252
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
652 pm edt Sun aug 20 2017

Aviation
Dry low level will maintainVFR conditions into part of tonight, but
increasing moisture on ssw winds will bring some potential of MVFR
fog late tonight into Monday morning. Any CIGS should remainVFR and
aoa 10kft as several batches of convective debris advect into the
vicinity over the next 24 hours.

For dtw... There looks to be some fog potential overnight with help
from a moisture push off lake erie (and a general increase in low
level moisture from prevalent southerly flow). Otherwise, CIGS will
remainVFR. There is a very low chance of a shower or storm in the
vicinity late tonight into Monday due to this increase in moisture.

While the best chance looks to be late tomorrow afternoon, the low
likelihood still doesn't seem to justify any mention.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.

Prev discussion
Issued at 338 pm edt Sun aug 20 2017
discussion...

rather typical late summer conditions ongoing across southeast
michigan, as the area remains under the influence of weak but deep
anti-cyclonic flow. To the west, convective debris clouds from last
night's action is beginning of overspread the region, while
thinning. Additional high clouds are expected to saunter overhead
through the evening hours.

The flow regime over the northern CONUS will undergo a modest
transition Monday and Tuesday as a strong cyclonic wave carves
southeast across central canada into the upper great lakes region.

Along the periphery of the height falls, additional convectively
induced waves will influence the specifics across the western great
lakes region.

One such wave, a leftover MCV over eastern iowa is evident in the
latest GOES imagery sequence. This dynamic feature will likely be
the focus for additional convective development along it's
trajectory this evening into the overnight hours as it intercepts
richer near surface moisture. The increased moisture will advance in
an elevated fashion across lower michigan overnight as southwesterly
flow increases in advance of the mcv. As this moisture advection
process unfolds, elevated convection may continue to bubble eastward
across far southern lower michigan after midnight. Moreover, the
reservoir of moisture aloft will emerge at the surface through
diurnal mixing processes Monday and dewpoints will jump quickly.

Farther upstream over the central plains, convection continue along
the edge of the mid-level cap. The nwp suite is challenged by this
ongoing activity. The best depiction thus far is by a few members of
the 20.00z ncar ensemble. Given the persistence of redevelopment,
expect new widespread coverage to develop near the current activity
near omaha. This offers greater separation between the convective
waves and opens a window for continued advection of unstable air
into southern lower michigan early Monday. The additional
instability could facilitate new diurnal convective development
during the late afternoon hours. Regardless, a fair amount of cloud
cover is anticipated through the course of the day.

As the larger scale wave approaches Monday night, additional
widespread convection is expected upstream across the mid and upper
mississippi valley. The advancing cold front will collect the
activity and advance east across michigan. The trend in the guidance
suite is to be quicker with the system, with the best chances for
showers and storms being overnight Monday night and during the first
half of Tuesday. The timing will likely limit severe weather
potential.

A closed upper low over eastern canada midweek will keep northwest
flow in place over the region as an upper level trough slowly
translates eastward across the eastern us through the end of the
week. Surface high pressure will slowly build into the great lakes
region midweek and remain in place through the end of the week.

These features will lead to a prolonged period of dry, cooler
conditions across southeast michigan through the end of the week.

Temperatures will fall slightly below average Wednesday through
Friday with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s and lows in the upper
40s to mid 50s. Ridging will then build into the region next weekend
keeping dry conditions in place and bringing a slight warming trend
with highs approaching 80 by Saturday.

Marine...

light southwest flow to continue over the marine areas through
tomorrow, with winds increasing on Tuesday ahead of a strong cold
front. This front coupled with increasing moisture will bring a
chance for showers and thunderstorms, with showers and thunderstorms
likely by Tuesday morning. Northwest winds behind the front will be
strong Tuesday evening, topping out around 30 knots over the open
waters lake huron before slowing decreasing on Wednesday.

Hydrology...

a strong cold front moving through on Tuesday will likely triggers
showers and thunderstorms Monday night into Tuesday. Basin averages
look to reside in the quarter inch to three quarter inch range, with
locally higher amounts possible in stronger thunderstorm activity.

At this time, no flooding is expected.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Dg
discussion... Mann jd
marine... ... .Sf
hydrology... .Sf
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 12 mi37 min E 8.9 G 9.9 77°F
45165 16 mi17 min E 7.8 G 9.7 77°F 77°F1 ft70°F
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 16 mi39 min ENE 2.9 G 6 77°F 1018.1 hPa68°F
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH 35 mi57 min E 5.1 G 8 76°F 1017.6 hPa (-0.0)
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH 43 mi39 min E 5.1 G 8 76°F 1018.7 hPa69°F
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 47 mi57 min S 6 G 8.9 80°F 1018.3 hPa (+0.4)

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Monroe, Custer Airport, MI3 mi64 minN 010.00 miFair76°F67°F74%1017.9 hPa
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI18 mi65 minSSE 310.00 miFair76°F64°F68%1017.9 hPa
Lambertville, Toledo Suburban Airport, MI19 mi63 minN 010.00 miFair77°F67°F73%1017.9 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI22 mi64 minSSE 610.00 miMostly Cloudy78°F64°F62%1018 hPa
Detroit, Willow Run Airport, MI23 mi64 minS 810.00 miFair78°F66°F67%1017.6 hPa

Wind History from TTF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3SW4W4W5SE6SE7SE5CalmE3E3Calm
1 day agoW6W4W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW4W4W5W4NW7NW6NW4NW9W6
G15
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2 days agoSW10SW7SW8SW7SW6SW5SW6SW8SW6SW5SW5SW8SW9
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.